Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Adebesi]

@Paul the Wolf Im sure I have actually seen you acknowledge that we dont know what the long term impact of Brexit will be - that we know for absolutely certain that in the short term it will be a disaster, but over a longer time horizon there are too many variables to know how things will play out.

I might be wrong about that.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Ill just be repeating myself but the point I was trying to make earlier is that we dont know for sure that in the longer term voting Brexit wont improve their lot. What we do know for sure is that the status quo wasnt working for them, so voting Remain wasnt going to do anything for them. For at least some people - though not the highly intelligent and employed Brexiters you know - this was a vote to shake things up. And yes, maybe in the short term there will be a fallout, but there is at least a chance that once we ride that out, things will be better for them.

I understand what you're saying but there is no evidence that leaving will improve their lot whatsoever. The difference in opinion is how long the fallout lasts and how it would be possible to recover.
I know perfectly well why the people I know voted leave.

 

[JPRouve]

Ill just be repeating myself but the point I was trying to make earlier is that we dont know for sure that in the longer term voting Brexit wont improve their lot. What we do know for sure is that the status quo wasnt working for them, so voting Remain wasnt going to do anything for them. For at least some people - though not the highly intelligent and employed Brexiters you know - this was a vote to shake things up. And yes, maybe in the short term there will be a fallout, but there is at least a chance that once we ride that out, things will be better for them.

Actually, we don't know that since the EU has little to do with their problems.

 

[Barca84]

Anyhow. back to that lying duplicitous PM..

 

[Adebesi]

I understand what you're saying but there is no evidence that leaving will improve their lot whatsoever. The difference in opinion is how long the fallout lasts and how it would be possible to recover.
I know perfectly well why the people I know voted leave.

They don't need evidence. It's a gamble. The point is they feel they have little to lose so are happy to take that chance.

 

[Mogget]

Ill just be repeating myself but the point I was trying to make earlier is that we dont know for sure that in the longer term voting Brexit wont improve their lot. What we do know for sure is that the status quo wasnt working for them, so voting Remain wasnt going to do anything for them. For at least some people - though not the highly intelligent and employed Brexiters you know - this was a vote to shake things up. And yes, maybe in the short term there will be a fallout, but there is at least a chance that once we ride that out, things will be better for them.

I don't think that argument holds really.

If they wanted to shake things up and have a chance at improving things for themselves then why not vote for Corbyn as a protest vote? He was running on a campaign of improving things for the less well off. Why not cause chaos that way? Instead they voted for Brexit then in the very next general election voted the Tories into power again.

This is just an example. The country had other ways of protesting their conditions but at every opportunity voted for the Tories so I can't accept that as a reason for the Brexit vote.

 

[Red Viking]

It is absolutely madness to even contemplate the idea that the UK will ever be as good as it is now outside all the trading blocks around the world as it is being economically isolated. It is beyond being naive to even think it is something that could happen. UK will be trading on worse terms compared to every other developed country and that will never end up being better short or long term.

 

[Adebesi]

Actually, we don't know that since the EU has little to do with their problems.

That's irrelevant though. The status quo wasnt working for them, that doesnt mean the EU wasnt working for them. But leaving the EU will change things fundamentally, and that in turn could force politicians to address problems not caused by the EU.

 

[Adebesi]

I don't think that argument holds really.

If they wanted to shake things up and have a chance at improving things for themselves then why not vote for Corbyn as a protest vote? He was running on a campaign of improving things for the less well off. Why not cause chaos that way? Instead they voted for Brexit then in the very next general election voted the Tories into power again.

This is just an example. The country had other ways of protesting their conditions but at every opportunity voted for the Tories so I can't accept that as a reason for the Brexit vote.

I dont know, maybe they are right wing?

 

[Abizzz]

Ill just be repeating myself but the point I was trying to make earlier is that we dont know for sure that in the longer term voting Brexit wont improve their lot. What we do know for sure is that the status quo wasnt working for them, so voting Remain wasnt going to do anything for them. For at least some people - though not the highly intelligent and employed Brexiters you know - this was a vote to shake things up. And yes, maybe in the short term there will be a fallout, but there is at least a chance that once we ride that out, things will be better for them.

Those saying "it can't get any worse" are the most ignorant among the lot. They may very well be dissatisfied with their lives, they may well feel fecked over by London, Brussels, whoever. That doesn't mean anyone owes them anything. On a global scale those who are bad off in the UK are still pretty well off. They're doing their best to change that.

 

[Reiver]

Ill just be repeating myself but the point I was trying to make earlier is that we dont know for sure that in the longer term voting Brexit wont improve their lot. What we do know for sure is that the status quo wasnt working for them, so voting Remain wasnt going to do anything for them. For at least some people - though not the highly intelligent and employed Brexiters you know - this was a vote to shake things up. And yes, maybe in the short term there will be a fallout, but there is at least a chance that once we ride that out, things will be better for them.

Best case scenario, for me, is that in the long term - and by that I mean 10 plus years - we're no worse off than we are now. Short to medium term, I think Brexit is going to hurt, at least the majority of us.
I understand what you say about people wanting to improve their lot. But surely most can see that has more to do with the financial crash and near a decade of austerity? The EU did not force the Tory party to pursue this. And if we are worse off after Brexit, that's all the excuse the Tories will need for continuing austerity.

 

[Smores]

It isn't overly civilised or enlightened to ignore the idiocy amongst the leave vote. Brexit would not have passed if it weren't for these people or the bigots. You can call them ignorant or ill informed if that pleases your sensibilities but the effect is the same.

I take no issue with those who had genuine concerns over sovereignty or concern over the EU project (i thought Nick argued his points well).

I do take issue with those who voted in an ignorant state and i do take issue with those who voted in protest. I'd be better off personally voting Tory but i consider Labour policies as showing decency and respect to all and i vote accordingly so anyone who voted not even in self-interest but in spite or as a roll over the dice can royally feck off putting the future of me and my own at risk.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

They don't need evidence. It's a gamble. The point is they feel they have little to lose so are happy to take that chance.

They may not think they have little to lose.
What happens if it does all go as expected when the UK leaves and they are worse off.

You don't want people saying "see we told you so".
There's the old saying 'there is always someone worse off than you'- the problem is it will almost certainly be themselves after the UK leaves. There's more chance they'd win the lottery than being better off.

 

[stevoc]

Great thread for anyone - like me - who gets confused about the whole backstop SNAFU.

Great summary, basically lays out how the UK government committed to the backstop in 2017 as a sign of their commitment to uphold the GFA.

But now they're backing out of that agreement and yet asking Ireland and the EU to trust them to uphold the GFA on nothing more than blind faith.

 

[Adebesi]

Maybe they recognise that things can get worse for them. Things can always get worse. But maybe things are bad enough that they dont particularly care about that risk. Maybe the chance that things might get better is a bigger motivation than the fear things could get worse.

As an analogy, its like in poker if you are basically down to your last few chips. A few chips is better than no chips. But still, when you are short stacked its perfectly rational to stick what you have on a long shot, and then you are either bust, or you are in a better position to fight again.

For me the tragedy here is that there are apparently so many people in this country in a bad enough situation that they had this mindset, not in a game of poker but in real life. That's why I dont think these people are idiots, I think they are desperate.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

That's irrelevant though. The status quo wasnt working for them, that doesnt mean the EU wasnt working for them. But leaving the EU will change things fundamentally, and that in turn could force politicians to address problems not caused by the EU.

There's a reasonable case to be made that EU membership shielded them from some of the worst consequences of the status quo. Let's not forget that EU funding frequently ended up in some of the poorest/ most Leave voting parts of the UK. Which is one of the great ironies of the referendum result.

I've been listening to a fair bit of Mark Blyth recently. Which is equal parts depressing and enlightening. He does a great job of getting into the heads - and explaining the economics behind the mindset - of the Trump/Brexit voters who were being so screwed over by the system that they voted to try and tear the whole thing down and start again. So much so that he called both results long before they happened.

Ultimately, though, both scenarios are really just self-harm on massive scale. We're hurting so we want the whole world to hurt too. With a liberal sprinkling of xenophobia due to the way they blame immigrants for their woes, as much as they blame the 1%ers taking home all the bacon. There's no rational reason to see anything positive coming out of this in the long term. Not that I can see anyway. Would love to hear any theories, because the alternative is pretty fecking grim!

 

[Adebesi]

There's more chance they'd win the lottery than being better off.

If you think this I must have been wrong about you acknowledging we couldnt predict how things would pan out in the long run.

 

[Adebesi]

There's a reasonable case to be made that EU membership shielded them from some of the worst consequences of the status quo. Let's not forget that EU funding frequently ended up in some of the poorest/ most Leave voting parts of the UK. Which is one of the great ironies of the referendum result.!

Yeah that's true.

Its particularly startling in Wales. I was really shocked TBH on the day of the result that this country voted to Leave. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.

 

[Adebesi]

I do think it shows a bit of a failure of imagination to see how things could end up being better outside the EU in the long run.

The way I see it, if I was a betting man, I would bet things will be worse outside the EU over every time horizon. But that doesnt mean I cant see other possibilities.

Its quite easy to see the EU going to shit over the next 10 years, and us being moderately better off for having got out of it early. Again, not a base case scenario, but hardly unfathomable either.

 

[Abizzz]

Maybe they recognise that things can get worse for them. Things can always get worse. But maybe things are bad enough that they dont particularly care about that risk. Maybe the chance that things might get better is a bigger motivation than the fear things could get worse.

As an analogy, its like in poker if you are basically down to your last few chips. A few chips is better than no chips. But still, when you are short stacked its perfectly rational to stick what you have on a long shot, and then you are either bust, or you are in a better position to fight again.

For me the tragedy here is that there are apparently so many people in this country in a bad enough situation that they had this mindset, not in a game of poker but in real life. That's why I dont think these people are idiots, I think they are desperate.

Feels more like betting the house on a 2 and 7. With the additional bonus that they won't be able to pack up bags and play the game again in another country.

In all seriousness, if they view politics like a poker game (or a gamble at all) all the luck to them. They'll need it.

 

[JPRouve]

I do think it shows a bit of a failure of imagination to see how things could end up being better outside the EU in the long run.

The way I see it, if I was a betting man, I would bet things will be worse outside the EU over every time horizon. But that doesnt mean I cant see other possibilities.

Its quite easy to see the EU going to shit over the next 10 years, and us being moderately better off for having got out of it early. Again, not a base case scenario, but hardly unfathomable either.

Can you describe that imagination, what would be the axes of the betterment?

 

[Smores]

Hunt been sent out to test reception and wording this morning. Wouldn't be shocked if you hear more tories start to use the phrase 'extra time' rather than extension.

Or he's an idiot hard to tell (if I'm allowed to use the word idiot)

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I do think it shows a bit of a failure of imagination to see how things could end up being better outside the EU in the long run.

The way I see it, if I was a betting man, I would bet things will be worse outside the EU over every time horizon. But that doesnt mean I cant see other possibilities.

Its quite easy to see the EU going to shit over the next 10 years, and us being moderately better off for having got out of it early. Again, not a base case scenario, but hardly unfathomable either.

Even in that scenario you’re starting on the backfoot on the long road to “moderately better off” because of the way your economy takes such a kicking from leaving early.

If the EU project does fail over the next 10 years then the countries involved will want to unravel in a way that will minimise the economic harm to everyone involved. With the most powerful economies having the loudest voice. One of which could have been Britain.

Not to mention that Brexit increases the chance of the EU going to shit, so that scenario gets less likely if you voted Remain.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

If you think this I must have been wrong about you acknowledging we couldnt predict how things would pan out in the long run.

Depends what you mean by long run. In 20 or 30 years time who knows what's going to happen.
But what I would imagine would be of interest to most people would be at least the next 10 years.

Being in favour of being the EU is not just a blanket yes or no.
I always work on logic and examining different aspects of the whole set of consequences of the action of remaining or leaving.
Emotion and wishful thinking do not come into the equation.

I do not see anything that remotely leads me to be believe that could possibly be advantageous for the UK being outside the EU at least for the foreseeable future.

If there was something better than the EU I would be in favour of that.

 

[Adebesi]

Can you describe that imagination, what would be the axes of the betterment?

A new financial crisis on a larger scale than the one in 2010, perhaps Italy goes bankrupt, 27 countries cant agree on a course of action causing paralysis and financial meltdown. An independent UK would be highly exposed in such a scenario but would probably be better off having the freedom to act independently.

Can you seriously not see the possibility of existential crisis for the EU? Or do you just disagree that the UK is actually any better off by being legally outside it?

 

[Adebesi]

Even in that scenario you’re starting on the backfoot on the long road to “moderately better off” because of the way your economy takes such a kicking from leaving early.

If the EU project does fail over the next 10 years then the countries involved will want to unravel in a way that will minimise the economic harm to everyone involved. With the most powerful economies having the loudest voice. One of which could have been Britain.

Not to mention that Brexit increases the chance of the EU going to shit, so that scenario gets less likely if you voted Remain.

This presupposes that the countries involved will still have enough control to influence how things unravel. That isnt a given.

 

[Adebesi]

Its amazing the amount of pushback you get when taking the position "voting Leave doesnt necessarily make you an idiot."

 

[Honest John]

It isn't overly civilised or enlightened to ignore the idiocy amongst the leave vote. Brexit would not have passed if it weren't for these people or the bigots. You can call them ignorant or ill informed if that pleases your sensibilities but the effect is the same.

I take no issue with those who had genuine concerns over sovereignty or concern over the EU project (i thought Nick argued his points well).

I do take issue with those who voted in an ignorant state and i do take issue with those who voted in protest. I'd be better off personally voting Tory but i consider Labour policies as showing decency and respect to all and i vote accordingly so anyone who voted not even in self-interest but in spite or as a roll over the dice can royally feck off putting the future of me and my own at risk.

These are my sentiments too. I have share options in the company I run (I am not an owner). I retire in 6 years time. I have a pension fund that I have built up and is dependent on the stock market because final salary pensions are now pretty much history. All of this is the culmination of a 50 year working career in engineering. My company's sales are 67% dependent either directly or indirectly on Airbus. If we have a hard Brexit and Airbus make good on their threat (and I think they can) then this Company will probably fold making my options worthless. That is to say nothing about the 40 odd people I employ. And please, I don't want to hear any of you 'business experts' out there spouting on about eggs in one basket and diversifying - blah fecking blah. For an SME who's stock-in-trade is manufacturing for the aerospace market, back-filling £3million of work is not a stroke of the pen or a couple of phone calls. It has taken me 12 years to get this place to where it is now. A hard Brexit will be a disaster and will also decimate my pension fund.

So thank you Mr Farage and Co. I do not want to be part of your 'minor disruption'. And as for the bigots and malcontents then they can feck off because fecking me is pure spite and won't solve anything.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I thought this short film about one of those small towns captured the hopelessness of life pretty well.

Thanks for posting this.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

Great thread for anyone - like me - who gets confused about the whole backstop SNAFU.

Yeah that's helpful and I read the tweet under that basically says that there could have been a border on the coast of NI if May hadn't called the GE and needed the DUP on board.

Presumably if she proposed this now and went against them she'd need backing from other parties to get it through which is likely but she'd never do it because then she'd permanently lose DUP backing for everything else which would be the end of her government. And some people think she's done well? She basically shot herself in the head when she called that snap election the daft bint.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

These are my sentiments too. I have share options in the company I run (I am not an owner). I retire in 6 years time. I have a pension fund that I have built up and is dependent on the stock market because final salary pensions are now pretty much history. All of this is the culmination of a 50 year working career in engineering. My company's sales are 67% dependent either directly or indirectly on Airbus. If we have a hard Brexit and Airbus make good on their threat (and I think they can) then this Company will probably fold making my options worthless. That is to say nothing about the 40 odd people I employ. And please, I don't want to hear any of you 'business experts' out there spouting on about eggs in one basket and diversifying - blah fecking blah. For an SME who's stock-in-trade is manufacturing for the aerospace market, back-filling £3million of work is not a stroke of the pen or a couple of phone calls. It has taken me 12 years to get this place to where it is now. A hard Brexit will be a disaster and will also decimate my pension fund.

So thank you Mr Farage and Co. I do not want to be part of your 'minor disruption'. And as for the bigots and malcontents then they can feck off because fecking me is pure spite and won't solve anything.

That sounds like a really shit situation, given how likely hard brexit is now looking. Feel for you, mate.

 

[JPRouve]

A new financial crisis on a larger scale than the one in 2010, perhaps Italy goes bankrupt, 27 countries cant agree on a course of action causing paralysis and financial meltdown. An independent UK would be highly exposed in such a scenario but would probably be better off having the freedom to act independently.

Can you seriously not see the possibility of existential crisis for the EU? Or do you just disagree that the UK is actually any better off by being legally outside it?

You didn't describe any betterment of the UK here. You simply created an armageddon scenario in which everyone is worse off but maybe hypothetically the UK who relies heavily on the financial sector aren't hit as hard as it could potentially be. You didn't describe any structural change that would make the UK better outside of the EU, you described the EU potentially being worse than it is now.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Yeah that's helpful and I read the tweet under that basically says that there could have been a border on the coast of NI if May hadn't called the GE and needed the DUP on board.

Presumably if she proposed this now and went against them she'd need backing from other parties to get it through which is likely but she'd never do it because then she'd permanently lose DUP backing for everything else which would be the end of her government. And some people think she's done well? She basically shot herself in the head when she called that snap election the daft bint.

Not only would she lose the backing of the DUP, but she’d lose a vote of confidence in the commons and the government would fall. There would then be a general election.

 

[Adebesi]

You didn't describe any betterment of the UK here. You simply created an armageddon scenario in which everyone is worse off but maybe hypothetically the UK who relies heavily on the financial sector aren't hit as hard as it could potentially be. You didn't describe any structural change that would make the UK better outside of the EU, you described the EU potentially being worse than it is now.

The EU being worse off and in a state of paralysis because it needs to take decisions quickly and cant kick the can down the road.

The UK being better off because it CAN take decisions, because it is sovereign and doesnt have to reach agreement with other countries in completely different situations.

Going back to posts above, also huge sympathy for people like @Honest John. But in response to the @Smores post he was responding to, I wouldnt blame the protest voter or the ignorant, I would 100% blame the dickheads who thought this question should be settled by a plebiscite. Because at the end of the day there are ignorant people out there, what are they going to do, say, Id better sit this one out, Im too much of an idiot to vote? Once this was put to the vote people were going to vote according to their own personal priorities and mindset, that is their prerogative. It is the fault of the politicians who knew these people existed but gave them a say in it anyway.

 

[golden_blunder]

If there’s one thing that we can all agree on it’s that brexit has really shown up all party politicians and leaders for what they are; self-serving incompetent IDIOTS

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The EU being worse off and in a state of paralysis because it needs to take decisions quickly and cant kick the can down the road.

But the UK could possibly be in a worse situation than 2008 in April 2019 purely because they brought it on themselves. Some gamble and no reason to expect any benefit.

 

[Adebesi]

But the UK could possibly be in a worse situation than 2008 in April 2019 purely because they brought it on themselves. Some gamble and no reason to expect any benefit.

Absolutely.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

Not only would she lose the backing of the DUP, but she’d lose a vote of confidence in the commons and the government would fall. There would then be a general election.

Yeah exactly.

 

[Honest John]

That sounds like a really shit situation, given how likely hard brexit is now looking. Feel for you, mate.

Yeah it's not a good situation. We have three young apprentices. All bright-eyed keen to make a career in engineering. I remember starting out just like them. It breaks my heart to think what may lie down the road for them. Nobody gave those lads or any of our youngsters a thought. I was in the local pub the evening after the result. The news was running footage of another pub somewhere just after the result broke. They had this 75 year-old bloke with a baseball cap on actually crying his eyes out blubbering "I got my country back." Most of the people in the pub I was in were students from the University and I will never forget their faces as they watched this tosser.

We have royally fecked our youth and it makes me feel ashamed.

 

[Smores]

The EU being worse off and in a state of paralysis because it needs to take decisions quickly and cant kick the can down the road.

The UK being better off because it CAN take decisions, because it is sovereign and doesnt have to reach agreement with other countries in completely different situations.

Going back to posts above, also huge sympathy for people like @Honest John. But in response to the @Smores post he was responding to, I wouldnt blame the protest voter or the ignorant, I would 100% blame the dickheads who thought this question should be settled by a plebiscite. Because at the end of the day there are ignorant people out there, what are they going to do, say, Id better sit this one out, Im too much of an idiot to vote? Once this was put to the vote people were going to vote according to their own personal priorities and mindset, that is their prerogative. It is the fault of the politicians who knew these people existed but gave them a say in it anyway.

Do you think these people were aware that Brexit may negatively affect the lives of others? were they ignorant to this?

If they were ignorant to the potential harm then sure they couldn't help themselves but if they knew how can you defend them?

"My lives shit already so i don't care what happens to you" is not an attitude you'd tolerate in any other situation