Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Trying to boil the issue down to its most basic terms, is this a fair summary?

Here are three statements from the British wish list:
a) no hard border in Northern Ireland
b) no border in the Irish Sea
c) an independent British trade policy

You can have any two of these, but not all three.

a+b = UK-wide Customs Union (basically the backstop)

a+c = NI remains in EU customs union. The rest of the UK is free to strike trade deals.

b+c = Hard Brexit (leave with no deal)

a+b+c = IMPOSSIBLE

Or Option E in Today's Tory Fantasy Land (trademark pending), according to Nick Timothy the Republic should just leave the custom union and bish bash problemo solved.
 
Yes , the problem is that not a single MP in the UK parliament appears to understand this.

The EU cannot understand why the British parliament are so stupid.
I forget. What is the beef with the border in the sea rather than physically on land.
 
Yes, at least for so long as the government relies on DUP votes. Even without the DUP, I think giving N Ireland that kind of half in/half out status in your option b would have Scotland gettting ready for Indy Ref 2.
If brexit has shown anything it’s that England doesn’t really give a shit about the union, it’s England first. So why shouldn’t the scots get another ref?
 
I reckon if May hadn't called that GE and ended up relying on the DUP this would have been the compromise. But DUP can't accept it and they have disproportionate power.
I think the parliamentary maths might still have ruled it out. There are quite a few English unionists in the Conservative party (a majority even) who have an ideological problem with dividing the union internally. I believe Theresa May herself thinks this - she voted against Welsh devolution for example, even after the referendum in favour of it, ironically.

I also think the SNP would also have kicked off if the perception was NI was being allowed to stay partially in the EU, and Scotland was not.
 
If brexit has shown anything it’s that England doesn’t really give a shit about the union, it’s England first. So why shouldn’t the scots get another ref?

They already voted, a second referendum wouldn't be democratic.
 
If brexit has shown anything it’s that England doesn’t really give a shit about the union, it’s England first. So why shouldn’t the scots get another ref?
The SNP are waiting for the best moment to call for one, ie when they think they'll win. They got one last time of course, I'm sure they'll get another in time if they clearly want one, Britain isn't Spain :).
 
Christ above.
They’ve been spouting that shite in the media for 2 weeks. Nigel farage has been trying it too. But Ireland wants to stay in the Eu (last public poll was nearly 90% pro Europe) so that shites a non-runner and they’re embarrassing themselves by suggesting it
 
Companies are paying him a fortune to be a consultant.

Perhaps he should sit down in a dark room and reflect . Ask himself which is the only country of the EU28 preparing to stockpile food and medicines.
You've got a fair point there. When people are taking about how the EU will do this or do that, do they ever specify who they are taking about? You have the individual countries, them you have the EU government. They are all different entities with their own needs, agendas, problems...
 


Wonder why he achieved zilch in 2 years. Clown.


This is the hopium the government are operating with due to the agreed withdrawal agreement being so abysmal it will never pass. I do not believe the EU will ever reopen the agreement to make the legally binding changes that are required for it to get through.

Essentially they don't have a choice but to believe the EU will agree to change it though as the alternatives are no deal, or no Brexit, and Corbyn probably sauntering in to number 10 shortly afterwards.

May is trying to bribe Labour MPs it seems to drum up some extra support. I wonder if she might get something non legally binding again, not in the agreement text and try to force that through with her original deal as a last desperate attempt.
 
You've got a fair point there. When people are taking about how the EU will do this or do that, do they ever specify who they are taking about? You have the individual countries, them you have the EU government. They are all different entities with their own needs, agendas, problems...

Quite.

Furthermore the EU27 have no need to stockpile food or medicines because the frictionless borders with all other member states will remain open. Without a deal there will be no frictionless border between the UK and any other country.
 
What I was wondering today was, if the UK leaves with no deal, does that put Ireland on a collision course with Brussels? Presumably Brussels would insist they implement customs and immigration controls as required by EU law, and the Irish government would be under huge domestic pressure to avoid a visible border?
That would be out of our control though, this isn't.
IMO Irish politicians are thinking if there is a hard Brexit then it will trigger a border poll and they can then let the public decide what's next.
 
What I was wondering today was, if the UK leaves with no deal, does that put Ireland on a collision course with Brussels? Presumably Brussels would insist they implement customs and immigration controls as required by EU law, and the Irish government would be under huge domestic pressure to avoid a visible border?

It's not EU laws that requires it but WTO rules.
 
I forget. What is the beef with the border in the sea rather than physically on land.

Because it would place NI outside of the rest of the UK which would not be tolerated by Parliament.
 
I would love to have a debate with JRM, Farage and Davis, completely wipe out all their arguments so easily.

Having read a lot of your posts on this subject I am confident that you would do exactly that.
Would make a brilliant Question Time.

I can just picture Farage with his mouth moving but no words coming out...
 
Having read a lot of your posts on this subject I am confident that you would do exactly that.
Would make a brilliant Question Time.

I can just picture Farage with his mouth moving but no words coming out...

On the condition that they were forced to answer the questions. A lie detector connected to each of them would be an added bonus.
 
If brexit has shown anything it’s that England doesn’t really give a shit about the union, it’s England first. So why shouldn’t the scots get another ref?

No objections on my part (in fact they should escape the madhouse if they can), I am just thinking it through from the point of view of the government in Westminster.
 
If brexit has shown anything it’s that England doesn’t really give a shit about the union, it’s England first. So why shouldn’t the scots get another ref?

Bit harsh.
Why would English people not put their country first.
Personally, I gave no thought to Wales or Scotland or N Ireland when I voted and I am pretty sure that they voted thinking of themselves first.

Did Scots not do the same in their own referendum.
 
Bit harsh.
Why would English people not put their country first.
Personally, I gave no thought to Wales or Scotland or N Ireland when I voted and I am pretty sure that they voted thinking of themselves first.

Did Scots not do the same in their own referendum.

Better_Together_cover_image.jpg
 
It's not EU laws that requires it but WTO rules.
There's a lot of nuance there actually: https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com...o-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/

Where Ireland would come up against EU rules if it tried to avoid a border is the new Union Customs Code (UCC), which governs the customs regulations and implementation by EU member states. This requires member states to apply a number of precise border controls, data collection and centralised data sharing to certify imports as qualifying for the 'free circulation of goods', among a bazillion other things.

RedCafe, come for the football, stay for the international customs law discussion.
 
There's a lot of nuance there actually: https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com...o-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/

Where Ireland would come up against EU rules if it tried to avoid a border is the new Union Customs Code (UCC), which governs the customs regulations and implementation by EU member states. This requires member states to apply a number of precise border controls, data collection and centralised data sharing to certify imports as qualifying for the 'free circulation of goods', among a bazillion other things.

RedCafe, come for the football, stay for the international customs law discussion.
So it isn't just a case of two different regulatory requirements so there has to be a border?
 
There's a lot of nuance there actually: https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com...o-require-countries-to-control-their-borders/

Where Ireland would come up against EU rules if it tried to avoid a border is the new Union Customs Code (UCC), which governs the customs regulations and implementation by EU member states. This requires member states to apply a number of precise border controls, data collection and centralised data sharing to certify imports as qualifying for the 'free circulation of goods', among a bazillion other things.

RedCafe, come for the football, stay for the international customs law discussion.

There are no nuances, without an agreement and without customs control both the EU and the UK are open to every other markets under the most-favoured nation rule. It's not even a debate to make.
 
There are no nuances, without an agreement and without customs control both the EU and the UK are open to every other markets under the most-favoured nation rule. It's not even a debate to make.
You misunderstand me. The EU would not have to wait for some lengthy two year MFN disputes process at the WTO to compel Ireland to enforce its external EU border like you implied. The EU has its own customs regulations (the UCC) which it would enforce.
 
You misunderstand me. The EU would not have to go through some lengthy two year MFN disputes process at the WTO to compel Ireland to enforce its external EU border like you implied. The EU has its own customs regulations (the UCC) which it would enforce.

I didn't imply anything.
 
What I was wondering today was, if the UK leaves with no deal, does that put Ireland on a collision course with Brussels? Presumably Brussels would insist they implement customs and immigration controls as required by EU law, and the Irish government would be under huge domestic pressure to avoid a visible border?

It's not EU laws that requires it but WTO rules.

...

I didn't imply anything.

What were you trying to say about WTO and Ireland then? It is EU law that explicitly requires the enforcement of an external border (in very specific ways), and WTO rules in a very loose implicit kind of way.