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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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  • Poll closed .
I had a lot of pity for Hammond but it's turning into a deep loathing of the man. I think i misunderstood him being spineless for being compromising.

He seems to say one thing off camera before being told off and then forced to push the brexit line on TV. His latest pitch that the EU will move on their red lines is pathetic and clearly straight from Mays office
 
Delingpole is also a massive climate change denier, as well as a colossal prick.
 
Ask yourself what is the justification behind Sterling’s strength? It is difficult, the current reasoning is due to a potential extension to Article 50 and the apparent drop in probability of a no deal Brexit. Does this really justify the Pound making significant gains against the majority of major currencies?

Morgan Stanley believes there is now less than a 5% chance of a no deal Brexit, but if we look at the current situation is that really the case? By rumours spreading that a no deal is now less likely it puts Theresa May in a terrible position to negotiate. A no deal Brexit scenario is practically the only ammunition she has. Brussels knows this.


Saw the above from currency advisor Daniel Johnson yesterday. I am still struggling to see how the UK are going to avoid a no deal yet Morgan Stanley have it at less than 5%.
Also how is "no deal" any kind of ammunition unless you're playing Russian Roulette.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Ask yourself what is the justification behind Sterling’s strength? It is difficult, the current reasoning is due to a potential extension to Article 50 and the apparent drop in probability of a no deal Brexit. Does this really justify the Pound making significant gains against the majority of major currencies?

Morgan Stanley believes there is now less than a 5% chance of a no deal Brexit, but if we look at the current situation is that really the case? By rumours spreading that a no deal is now less likely it puts Theresa May in a terrible position to negotiate. A no deal Brexit scenario is practically the only ammunition she has. Brussels knows this.


Saw the above from currency advisor Daniel Johnson yesterday. I am still struggling to see how the UK are going to avoid a no deal yet Morgan Stanley have it at less than 5%.
Also how is "no deal" any kind of ammunition unless you're playing Russian Roulette.
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What I don't get is how it works. "If you don't agree to a deal, we won't have a deal."
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Ask yourself what is the justification behind Sterling’s strength? It is difficult, the current reasoning is due to a potential extension to Article 50 and the apparent drop in probability of a no deal Brexit. Does this really justify the Pound making significant gains against the majority of major currencies?

Morgan Stanley believes there is now less than a 5% chance of a no deal Brexit, but if we look at the current situation is that really the case? By rumours spreading that a no deal is now less likely it puts Theresa May in a terrible position to negotiate. A no deal Brexit scenario is practically the only ammunition she has. Brussels knows this.


Saw the above from currency advisor Daniel Johnson yesterday. I am still struggling to see how the UK are going to avoid a no deal yet Morgan Stanley have it at less than 5%.
Also how is "no deal" any kind of ammunition unless you're playing Russian Roulette.
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What's being said in private to big firms like them, I wonder.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Ask yourself what is the justification behind Sterling’s strength? It is difficult, the current reasoning is due to a potential extension to Article 50 and the apparent drop in probability of a no deal Brexit. Does this really justify the Pound making significant gains against the majority of major currencies?

Morgan Stanley believes there is now less than a 5% chance of a no deal Brexit, but if we look at the current situation is that really the case? By rumours spreading that a no deal is now less likely it puts Theresa May in a terrible position to negotiate. A no deal Brexit scenario is practically the only ammunition she has. Brussels knows this.


Saw the above from currency advisor Daniel Johnson yesterday. I am still struggling to see how the UK are going to avoid a no deal yet Morgan Stanley have it at less than 5%.
Also how is "no deal" any kind of ammunition unless you're playing Russian Roulette.
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No deal is only supported by about 70 MPs in total. The vast majority of the cabinet do not support it, 75% of Tory MPs do not support it and similar for Labour, the Lib Dems and SNP do not support it.

May's deal with the backstop included is supported by around 200 MPs, most of them just voting out of loyalty to the government or because they're on the payroll. If it was a free vote the number would be even lower.

May and the government even used No deal as part of their project fear campaign mark 2. The chancellor has said in his conference call the government will not allow no deal to happen. It's pretty stupid for them to now come out and say: Remove the backstop or we're going no deal. May and the government have already shown their cards!

Likely a huge amount of ministers and Tory MPs will back the Cooper / Grieve amendment to create debate time for article 50 extension or withdrawal if the government still have no plan.

That is why Sterling has strengthened. That and it's becoming obvious Europe, Germany, France (and the UK..) are heading for a recession.
 
Mb194dc said:
No deal is only supported by about 70 MPs in total. The vast majority of the cabinet do not support it, 75% of Tory MPs do not support it and similar for Labour, the Lib Dems and SNP do not support it.

May's deal with the backstop included is supported by around 200 MPs, most of them just voting out of loyalty to the government or because they're on the payroll. If it was a free vote the number would be even lower.

May and the government even used No deal as part of their project fear campaign mark 2. The chancellor has said in his conference call the government will not allow no deal to happen. It's pretty stupid for them to now come out and say: Remove the backstop or we're going no deal. May and the government have already shown their cards!

Likely a huge amount of ministers and Tory MPs will back the Cooper / Grieve amendment to create debate time for article 50 extension or withdrawal if the government still have no plan.

That is why Sterling has strengthened. That and it's becoming obvious Europe, Germany, France (and the UK..) are heading for a recession.
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But the only way to stop no deal is to agree a deal, and that looks far far away or they cancel Brexit.
No deal is not a threat to the EU.

The UK can't just negotiate with themselves.
They still only have three choices, No deal, May's deal (with a possible political declaration amendment going for BINO) or cancel it totally.

Maybe there will be a recession driven by various factors, Trump, Brexit, China but that would make the pound even weaker if they left.

Makes little sense.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
But the only way to stop no deal is to agree a deal, and that looks far far away or they cancel Brexit.
No deal is not a threat to the EU.

The UK can't just negotiate with themselves.
They still only have three choices, No deal, May's deal (with a possible political declaration amendment going for BINO) or cancel it totally.

Maybe there will be a recession driven by various factors, Trump, Brexit, China but that would make the pound even weaker if they left.

Makes little sense.
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Nothing needs to be agreed other accepting the withdrawal agreement and no deal are not credible options. That only leaves ones choice.

Stopping the Brexit process, via either just via a vote to withdraw article 50 and explaining the above, or asking the EU for an extension for another referendum between the WA and remaining.

I sincerely hope if this arises we go with option 1 as a second referendum would be bitter far beyond anything seen before and non one would accept the result anyway.
 
Mb194dc said:
Nothing needs to be agreed other accepting the withdrawal agreement and no deal are not credible options. That only leaves ones choice.

Stopping the Brexit process, via either just via a vote to withdraw article 50 and explaining the above, or asking the EU for an extension for another referendum between the WA and remaining.

I sincerely hope if this arises we go with option 1 as a second referendum would be bitter far beyond anything seen before and non one would accept the result anyway.
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I don't get this. No deal is the default option, in all circumstances it's a credible option because you literally need to do nothing to have it. All the other options require actual actions.
 
JPRouve said:
I don't get this. No deal is the default option, in all circumstances it's a credible option because you literally need to do nothing to have it. All the other options require actual actions.
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I meant a majority of Parliament accepting no deal is not a credible option and voting through legislation to prevent it. That is what the cooper grieve amendment does. By making sure there will be parliamentary time to either extend or withdraw article 50 before leaving date.

A more extreme option would also be for Tory MPs to bring the government down when Corbyn calls a confidence vote by abstaining from it. Then forming a national government to prevent a no deal exit.

It seems Corbyn Labour will officially support the cooper grieve amendment too, whilst Corbyn wants Brexit imo he does not want to leave without an agreement either. What he really wants is a GE and there are many paths now for him to get one.
 
Why's the GBP doing so well all of a sudden? It's the highest it's been in months.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
That's what I'm asking. People think no deal is highly unlikely, but I have no idea why they think that.
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It feels like it's the most likely option now and the one a large number of the public seems to support.
 
Mb194dc said:
I meant a majority of Parliament accepting no deal is not a credible option and voting through legislation to prevent it. That is what the cooper grieve amendment does. By making sure there will be parliamentary time to either extend or withdraw article 50 before leaving date.

A more extreme option would also be for Tory MPs to bring the government down when Corbyn calls a confidence vote by abstaining from it. Then forming a national government to prevent a no deal exit.

It seems Corbyn Labour will officially support the cooper grieve amendment too, whilst Corbyn wants Brexit imo he does not want to leave without an agreement either. What he really wants is a GE and there are many paths now for him to get one.
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A GE or referendum does nothing in the long run. The EU are not going to allow extension of A50 unless there is a change of tack towards a very soft Brexit, staying in the CU etc.
Otherwise cancel Brexit.
I have yet to see an amendment that makes sense.
 
Mb194dc said:
I meant a majority of Parliament accepting no deal is not a credible option and voting through legislation to prevent it. That is what the cooper grieve amendment does. By making sure there will be parliamentary time to either extend or withdraw article 50 before leaving date.

A more extreme option would also be for Tory MPs to bring the government down when Corbyn calls a confidence vote by abstaining from it. Then forming a national government to prevent a no deal exit.

It seems Corbyn Labour will officially support the cooper grieve amendment too, whilst Corbyn wants Brexit imo he does not want to leave without an agreement either. What he really wants is a GE and there are many paths now for him to get one.
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So you rely on the ability of politicians to compromise over their ability to mess things up or do nothing? Because the last two scenarios lead to No deal, that's why I tell you that it's always credible because it's the easiest to get.
 
The Firestarter said:
That is weird. I wonder what the investment firms have been told.
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Well we already know it's public knowledge our chancellor has told them there won't be a no deal in March. Markets are just reflecting the lowered risk of a no deal due to May running down the clock.

Even as a temporary measure it buys time for negotiation and makes a deal or no brexit more likely.
 
Smores said:
Well we already know it's public knowledge our chancellor has told them there won't be a no deal in March. Markets are just reflecting the lowered risk of a no deal due to May running down the clock.

Even as a temporary measure it buys time for negotiation and makes a deal or no brexit more likely.
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May running down the clock makes no deal more likely.
The only alternative at this moment is to cancel brexit within the next nine weeks.
Best not to listen to politicians of any type.
 
I should have emigrated to another country. Is this the best we can do?
 
Adisa said:
I should have emigrated to another country. Is this the best we can do?
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What a clown.

Brexiteers are very good at invoking some cartoonish version of WWII without having any real experience of what the wartime generation went through.
 
Pound really doing so well or dollar being weak? Pound lost on the Euro? (Not much)
 
Smores said:
I had a lot of pity for Hammond but it's turning into a deep loathing of the man. I think i misunderstood him being spineless for being compromising.

He seems to say one thing off camera before being told off and then forced to push the brexit line on TV. His latest pitch that the EU will move on their red lines is pathetic and clearly straight from Mays office
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He is a typical slimey chameleon of a politicIan; trying to be all things to all people.

The way he decimated Defence spending showed all he was interested in was saving money whatever the outcome. And we are now struggling to have even a minimum Air Force or Navy or Army.

He has absolutely no redeming trates except being famous for his use of spreadsheets.

What does he believe in - advancing his career.
 
Adisa said:
I should have emigrated to another country. Is this the best we can do?
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The fears that such as Mark Francoise is playing to is not Airbus leaving, but that for many Brexiteers the fear that in a future United States of Europe Germany will dominate because of its size and economy and the new order of the USE becomes nothing more than a 'Greater Germany'. By referring back to WWII Francoise is pandering to fears that Germany will have gained in peace what it couldn't in war, domination of Europe.
 
Maticmaker said:
The fears that such as Mark Francoise is playing to is not Airbus leaving, but that for many Brexiteers the fear that in a future United States of Europe Germany will dominate because of its size and economy and the new order of the USE becomes nothing more than a 'Greater Germany'. By referring back to WWII Francoise is pandering to fears that Germany will have gained in peace what it couldn't in war, domination of Europe.
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He has no other defense of his position other than blind patriotism. If that is what he and his voters are fearing the E.U is best off with them out and as far away as possible. As a German I am offended by this, who does he think he is to say someone's opinion is bullying because of the persons nationality:wenger:? It would be hilarious if it wasn't an MP, but that's just thoroughly offensive.


Edit: And before you get your knifes out I am also a American who's Grandfather fought for the allies. I used to be binational, now i'm just a citizen of nowhere :cool:.
 
711 said:
The pound's risen against both over the last fortnight, gaining nearly twice as much on the Euro as it has on the dollar.
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Ah, I was looking at the day. You're right for a fortnight.
 
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