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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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So the peoples vote group have pulled the amendment because it might not pass whilst simultaneously criticising Corbyn for not backing it when it won't pass. On top of that the same MPs criticised Corbyn for not wanting to put down the VONC when they thought it wouldn't pass :wenger:

The People's Vote lot are just another group looking after their own interests and self-promotion, particularly Chuka
I guess they would argue that if Corbyn had backed it, it would have a better chance of passing. That it is his lack of support that gives it so little chance of passing.

Out of interest why do you reserve greater disdain for Chuka than others calling for PV?
 
I guess they would argue that if Corbyn had backed it, it would have a better chance of passing. That it is his lack of support that gives it so little chance of passing.

Out of interest why do you reserve greater disdain for Chuka than others calling for PV?

With or without Corbyn it isn't passing at this moment. All they've done is mouth off and then retreated to a position of wait and see on the other amendments which was Labours position they so opposed.

I just have a view that his actions or words are all done for calculated self-promotion (like Boris) and have been for a long time. I certainly don't have great disdain for him just a lack of respect.
 
First I just have to insert the disclaimer that I think the causes of this mess are too numerous and complex and interrelated to summarise in a short post.

Having said that, my take on it would be that while I agree it is a cause of where we are now, it is only one of many, and I wouldnt personally describe it as a primary cause, or one of the main causes. The media, as in the MSM, such as the BBC, are less powerful than they used to be. If I was going to attribute this to a section of the media I would put it down to new media more than old, to social media - Facebook and Twitter. A lot more has been said about this in the social media thread and I wont go into it too much here but I will repeat something I mentioned a week or two ago in there, which was about parallels between the rise of social media and the early days of newspapers, to the first cheap, widely available daily newspapers. As they gained traction in Europe the population became increasingly radicalised, and within a couple of decades, in 1848, you can revolutions across most of Europe.

For me, when you look at the kind of upheaval we have in the UK at the moment - and in the US and loads of other places, taking different forms and different levels of severity in each place - and you are looking for a cause, you need to identify something that changed. Has MSM changed significantly? Enough to trigger all this? Its dying, you could argue, but it hasnt really changed, not fundamentally. So why would all this be happening now? What has changed is social media, not the BBC. (I dont think the competency of the political class has changed much either. Maybe things have come out confirming pre-existing concerns about their competence and integrity, such as the expenses scandal (revealed by a bastion of the UK press by the way) but I think people have been pretty cynical about their politicians for a long time.)

But I dont even think that is the main reason. I think, if you are going to put it down to one thing, it is economics. Revolutions happen when extended periods of growth and rising prosperity suddenly end. When people get used to believing that, whatever hardships they face, things will be better for them in years to come than they are now, and that their kids will be better off than them, but then that belief is eroded or killed entirely. What is bearable when average prosperity is rising is not bearable when it isnt. And that is what we have seen in the last 10-12 years. In January 2007 people had optimism about the future. By the end of 2008 they were genuinely asking themselves whether their money was safe in banks. Then austerity happened, people no longer felt financially secure and resentment about inequality went through the roof. Today it is common for people to believe things will be harder for our kids than it is for us. People fear losing their jobs, they fear automation, they fear offshoring, they fear never being able to afford a house, never being able to clear their credit card debt and the rest of it.

People were angry and in the mood to revolt. And then, along comes a referendum about the EU. In retrospect the result is completely predictable.

So does the media play a role in that? Definitely. You cant put this down to a thing and deny the input of other things, it is infinitely complex and interrelated, as I said. Has the media helped channel the anger into what it is, scapegoating immigrants and red tape as though they are the reasons they have lost their financial security? Of course it has. But ultimately I believe the shit was always going to hit the fan, one way or the other, after the crisis of 2008. Especially given the way none of the shenanigans were ever really punished, the people who caused it ended up getting richer and a system seen as grossly unfair by many was left largely intact. A few technical reforms nobody really understands about bank capital hardly feels like a satisfactory resolution to a crisis that triggered austerity.

Oh, I don't mean by 'direct cause' that traditional media were the primary cause or the only cause; I just mean that they were a direct cause and are worthy of discussion in this thread as much as anything else.

I agree with much of your assessment, but I think you're underestimating how much of a role the media played (and were played by people) in making the EU the scapegoat for the issues you identify. I haven't checked the facts on this recently (you can find a post of mine from when I had done the research in discussion with Nick either in this thread or the OG Brexit thread) but if memory serves we went from a situation in 2009 where Europe was such a minor issue Yougov didn't even track it as an issue people cared about to 2015 to UKIP being the third largest party by vote share. Sure, we had a bit of whinging every five years during European elections, but UKIP numbers were steady between 2004 and 2009 and there's no sign that eurosceptisim was the initial response to the financial crisis.

People might have been primed and ready for a reactionary 'solution' to the problem, but they were spoon-fed and drip-fed it as readily by traditional MSM outlets (in particular the BBC) who vastly overstated the importance of the issue in their typical hamfisted attempts at faux 'balance' and gave them mainstream legitimisation and oxygen (like for example on Question Time: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/question-time-ukip-nigel-farage_uk_58d95295e4b03787d35ae186) as they were elsewhere.

That's not to say that all this was not going on on social media too (of course it was), or to suggest that had the media smelt what they were being sold years ago it wouldn't have turned out the way it did (it might still have done), but it is more simply just that the media (as is often the case) were as complicit in making Europe news as anyone else.
 
@NinjaFletch I do certainly remember feelings of bewilderment and exasperation at the number of times they invited Farage onto QT. In the end I put it down to the hunt for ratings - people tune in to watch Farage, even if they loathe the man and just want to shout at their televisions. Which brings me back to the dilemma aspect of dealing with the media. In some ways you have to say we have the media we deserve.

But yes, I agree with you, the media is definitely an important component in all this.
 
With or without Corbyn it isn't passing at this moment. All they've done is mouth off and then retreated to a position of wait and see on the other amendments which was Labours position they so opposed.

I just have a view that his actions or words are all done for calculated self-promotion (like Boris) and have been for a long time. I certainly don't have great disdain for him just a lack of respect.

100% - see this for example

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...umunna-steps-up-new-party-plans-a4021426.html
 
Hard Border photo on Facebook...
50783915_1202942123195254_6222586689034911744_n.jpg
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46984229

European plane maker Airbus has warned that it could move wing building out of the UK in the future if there is a no-deal Brexit.

The firm's chief executive, Tom Enders, said the firm "will have to make potentially very harmful decisions for the UK" in the event of no deal.

Mr Enders said it was a "disgrace" that businesses could still not plan for Brexit.

Well, I guess one positive of Brexit is getting the French out.
 
@NinjaFletch I do certainly remember feelings of bewilderment and exasperation at the number of times they invited Farage onto QT. In the end I put it down to the hunt for ratings - people tune in to watch Farage, even if they loathe the man and just want to shout at their televisions. Which brings me back to the dilemma aspect of dealing with the media. In some ways you have to say we have the media we deserve.

But yes, I agree with you, the media is definitely an important component in all this.

Yeah, I think it cuts both ways though. It did often net a ratings boom (although after a while I cannot see how UKIP continuing to be on QT was an oddity anymore), but I also think there was genuinely a misguided sense that giving fashes a platform and 'debating' them was somehow the right thing to do.

Take the Nick Griffin debacle in 2009 for a reference point. He got torn to shreds by all sides and was utterly abysmal on it, but it resulted in a 2% swing towards the BNP (and yes, also a huge ratings success).
 
Yeah, I think it cuts both ways though. It did often net a ratings boom (although after a while I cannot see how UKIP continuing to be on QT was an oddity anymore), but I also think there was genuinely a misguided sense that giving fashes a platform and 'debating' them was somehow the right thing to do.

Take the Nick Griffin debacle in 2009 for a reference point. He got torn to shreds by all sides and was utterly abysmal on it, but it resulted in a 2% swing towards the BNP (and yes, also a huge ratings success).
But that has always been conventional wisdom hasnt it. Brushing something under the carpet - racism, extremism, whatever - makes it fester and grow, whereas having it out in the open and debating it, that is how you prevail over it. That is like a truism. Obviously you cant test the theory but it seems entirely possible to me that if QT had completely ignored UKIP or BNP types, the referendum could still have happened, the result could still have been the same and we could be in here discussing how the BBC was complicit in the result because it ignored the concerns of everyday people and acted as though the two main parties were still basically representative of mainstream views.
 
But that has always been conventional wisdom hasnt it. Brushing something under the carpet - racism, extremism, whatever - makes it fester and grow, whereas having it out in the open and debating it, that is how you prevail over it. That is like a truism. Obviously you cant test the theory but it seems entirely possible to me that if QT had completely ignored UKIP or BNP types, the referendum could still have happened, the result could still have been the same and we could be in here discussing how the BBC was complicit in the result because it ignored the concerns of everyday people and acted as though the two main parties were still basically representative of mainstream views.

Yeah, but like all conventional wisdom it's probably wrong. There's very little historical or current evidence to suggest that giving fringe views a platform (no matter how wacky they are and how robustly they're defeated) does anything other than make people aware of them.
 
Yeah, but like all conventional wisdom it's probably wrong. There's very little historical or current evidence to suggest that giving fringe views a platform (no matter how wacky they are and how robustly they're defeated) does anything other than make people aware of them.
Ill have to take your word for that as I havent looked at this question and studied the evidence as you apparently have. I wasnt even aware of the 2% bump in BNP approval after Griffin was on the show. I find it hard to fathom political nerds watching QT seeing him on there and thinking, "wow, I had never thought about it like that before, this guy is really onto something...." I mean, how big can the intersection between BNP voters and potential voters on one hand, and late night, topical news and current affairs programmes on the other, actually be? I always thought negligible, but maybe this is another piece of conventional wisdom I am spectacularly wrong for believing.
 
I wonder if the 2% bump you mentioned could have been the result of Griffin being perceived as a plucky underdog, representing the views of the silent majority of good, honest, white working class folk, as the forces of the establishment closed ranks against him? So it becomes less about the content of the debate, and more about the optics of one person being "bullied" by the rest of the panel. And then the sense that "the establishment" twists everything to make perfectly reasonable concerns about immigration seem like racism? So it becomes more of a sympathy vote bump, rather than people actually finding their way to the BNP by watching QT every week, but somehow not being aware of the existence of the extreme right until they are invited onto the show.
 
It’s pathetic how Boris, Davis, Mogg etc all pick up huge payments on the side.



It's bad enough they all end up employed by them afterwards which is clearly a delayed payment of influence but direct payment is infuriating. There's no reason this should be allowed.
 
It means he gets results!

That doesn't make any sense. Airbus is not a French company.
It is no longer government owned and bear in mind that BAE no longer have a share of the company.
Airbus UK are wing systems designer and manufacturer.

As to the UK, we no longer have the capability to design or develop or produce whole aircraft.

So. Back to getting the French out...
 
That doesn't make any sense. Airbus is not a French company.
It is no longer government owned and bear in mind that BAE no longer have a share of the company.
Airbus UK are wing systems designer and manufacturer.

As to the UK, we no longer have the capability to design or develop or produce whole aircraft.

So. Back to getting the French out...
Hey, I'm trying to eat my sandwich here.
 
Absolute stupidity. The caller is a few sandwiches short of a picnic

Ireland don’t have much of an army for a start, it’s a neutral country

TBF Roy Keane is a bit of the Irish answer to Chuck Norris.
 
But but but Donald Trump will give us a deal. And that laugh at the end sums him up.
 
That doesn't make any sense. Airbus is not a French company.
It is no longer government owned and bear in mind that BAE no longer have a share of the company.
Airbus UK are wing systems designer and manufacturer.

As to the UK, we no longer have the capability to design or develop or produce whole aircraft.

So. Back to getting the French out...

It's the sort of attitude to foreigners that landed us in this mess in the first place.
 


Excuse my naivety here, but is the owner of Wetherspoons really an influencer when it comes to Brexit? I mean, did anyone ever hear of someone who voted on the basis of what a glorified pub landlord reckons?
 
Excuse my naivety here, but is the owner of Wetherspoons really an influencer when it comes to Brexit? I mean, did anyone ever hear of someone who voted on the basis of what a glorified pub landlord reckons?

He's a massive advocate for Brexit and on Question Time (and other political shows) a lot. Basically, it's pretty embarrassing how badly he answered the questions there.

What a pair of absolute bellends

Don't see what Owen Jones did wrong there.