spike in the £ value - presumably as they realize May has basically brought herself a week but at that point her plan is done for -plus a good chance a no deal amendment gets added
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I'm convinced the DUP know they won't get a change in the backstop but are only doing it to show themselves as relevant. They can't honestly think they're going to get any movement from the EU
I don't agree with much of what May's saying but she is right about No Deal. Until the UK realise this that's where you're going.
No plan B at all. Just Plan A and running the clock down.
Utterly transparent. The governments hand is on the table face up. The EU won't move on the backstop.
Utterly transparent. The governments hand is on the table face up. The EU won't move on the backstop.
shes probably right about the 2nd referendum I think:
There isn't a majority in the house (at least not until labour will make it policy to back it) - and it would be very divisive (I cant even imagine a question and format that could be agreed)
Part of the problem I think is that the deal is being referred to as May's deal and that alone means many will vote against it - but equally thats not a problem thats going to go away.
Is there a majority against the deal - yes and that looks unlikely to change in a week (especially as I cant see the EU capitulating on the backstop)
Is there a majority against No deal - yes and again that looks unlikely to change in a week
that said I am not sure there is a majority to simply revoke A50 and Im not sure the EU would just agree to extend without a good reason (probably a second ref or a GE)- and as I said I think unless Labour switches policy there isnt a majority for a 2nd ref - and unless the conservatives switch policy there isnt a majority for a second election.
I really am not sure what happens from there - my gut feel is GE called by the conservatives
Yeah - The Scream.
There is a huge majority against no deal, 500 votes at least including almost the entire cabinet.
There will be a majority for revoking article 50 either directly, hopefully. (Or via a referendum, god help us) when time runs down and the only choices are No deal or the withdrawal agreement which has been crushed already and suits no one.
Not sure if the government will collapse first but that is entirely possible. Hard to imagine May doing it, rather being removed via a no confidence vote and national government doing it for her.
Problem is there's no majority for anything.
Maybe a GE but don't see that really solving anything either.
At the end of the day if parliament wants a deal and not revoke A50 they still need to have a withdrawal agreement.
indeed which will in essence be the deal on offer at the moment - but unfortunatley thats been branded as May's deal which makes it toxic to a significant proportion of leave and remain supporters
All her answers are basically "you'll decide next week with your amendments I'm not saying jack".
She's just a lame duck at this point.
She's just a lame duck at this point.
A picture of what?
I agree there is a huge majority against no deal - possibly not 500 by the time it gets called a managed exit and the governemnt whips people into voting with (or at least abstaining) but for sure an even more crushing defeat than the last one
As for a majority who would vote for withdrawing A50 rather than extending without a second ref - I think there might be a majority - but it would be a lot closer (even though of course it defaults to no deal) - I just see a lot of people in leave seats being reluctant to walk through the ballot on that one and they would abstain
Bemusement
The backstop was raised by TM as a result of her red lines but as you say the EU will not relinquish it.
Wasn't it David Davies who actually negotiated the backstop?
incompetent or cunning?
Yes totally agree.
When it was defeated both Remainers and Brexiters celebrated. Not a good sign.
as the clock runs down leavers think it makes no deal more likely
remainers think it makes remain (or at least a 2nd ref) more likely
both are probably correct as I think most people originally thought a negotiated withdrawal was always the most likley outcome but again as the clock ticks down that seems ever less likely with both leave and remain seemingly fancyinng their chances of securing their own particular brand of brexit / not brexit
Yes but one side will be severely disappointed and may regret that celebration.
inevitably when it comes to a binary option thats split pretty close down the middle its going to be divisive.
A GE in this climate or a second ref could genuinley fracture UK politics forever - which actually in the long run might not be the worst thing (or equally could be terrible - as I say binary options)
I don't think the leavers actually think that they're just hoping it forces Mays deal in their direction.
The only route towards no deal in March is if the EU rejects an extension and that isn't going to happen. They'll give us any sensible extension we want and parlaiment will soon force the request.
You really think they're going to wait another 10 years whilst the UK makes its mind up.
French borders don't matter anyway, you'd just surrender
I know that you are joking but you do realize that people fought and die for these borders?
Possibly - they might switch to supporting to supporting Mays deal - just to make sure we leave then seek to oust may and get Mogg / johnson to wave their cock at the EU and switch to a canada type arrangement in the end as I cant see May having any flexibility from the EU to make the deal more acceptable to them.
Even then though she needs all the ERG mob, the DUP and her remain MP's to get the deal over the line which I just dont see happening.
And unless the extension is for a GE or a 2nd ref I am honestly not sure all 27 will give the extension or at least not beyind the EU elections (which frankly at this point makes an extension of that time frame not really worth anything).
The legal default is for No deal and until parliament agrees a process that carries a majority to stop that some in the ERG will be clinging on to their hope of what they see as a true brexit (and presumably a start of the British empire 2.0)
Of course I do. What does that have to do with making jokes? We joke about the troubles in Ireland and our history with the British Empire all the time. There have been endless jokes about the French and their surrender over the years.
I'm not getting into a debate about "acceptable jokes", though, we probably won't agree.
It might fracture the parties, and maybe even spawn a new one or two, but in the grand scheme of things why not? People don’t trust politicians or have any faith in the political system now, so I really don’t see what exactly is going to be so damaging. More people won’t vote maybe?
May's deal with the backstop amended is the only option.
That would bring the ERG onside which will lessen the claims of sell-out among the wider Leave vote.
All other options open up a shed load of worms.
The EU needs to reconsider their position on this.
We need to get the WA out of the way.
Then argue about the future relationship.
In any case the final deal will pretty much have to be be some form of 'a customs union'.
That would bring the ERG onside which will lessen the claims of sell-out among the wider Leave vote.
All other options open up a shed load of worms.
The EU needs to reconsider their position on this.
We need to get the WA out of the way.
Then argue about the future relationship.
In any case the final deal will pretty much have to be be some form of 'a customs union'.
Why would the EU sell out Ireland?
The "no majority for no deal" seems pretty pointless to me. Unless parliament gets a majority for something else (seems impossible atm), no deal will happen by default.
I didn't say that you couldn't make a joke, I didn't took it badly that's why I mentioned that I know that it was a joke. I just think that sometimes it's important to talk about their content, for example Vichy was a dictatorship and logically not very popular, nor was the collaboration that it imposed. It's off topic though since on land we'd batter the english.
Don't worry. It won't. The biggest success for the EU has been maintaining a united front.
Quite unlike the UK.
It's meaningless.
They have to agree something, which seems unlikely.
What is certain is that the backstop is not going to change, the withdrawal agreement is not really going to change, and Corbyn's unicorns are non -starters .
The political declaration may change but that would be towards the UK/EU intending to have some sort of deal in the future either being in the CU/SM assuming acceptance of EFTA etc or towards a special Canada FTA which does not solve the Irish border.
The EU are not going to allow the UK to extend A50 unless they see the UK actually definitively heading in one direction.
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With the whole of the erg onside she still looses the vote... Even with the dup as well... She has enough remain mps Who voted against her deal to mean that she can't go down the route is a harder brexit as the erg demand and get a deal Past.
I genuinely think she's going to have to accept parliament taking over or go for a ge and given how stubborn she is I think a ge is more probable
When you take a step back, It really is staggering that the government thinks its sensible to just press on as if nothing has changed since it lost by a historic margin.
Plan B is just more of Plan A.
Plan B is just more of Plan A.
What's the point of a GE anyway?
Even if the Tory's win and regain their majority in Parliament, we are still at an impasse over stay, leave, May's deal, no deal. What would change there?
Even if the Tory's win and regain their majority in Parliament, we are still at an impasse over stay, leave, May's deal, no deal. What would change there?
Getting almost boring now. I thought something substantial would had to have happened by now given the monstrous defeat she suffered.
Just sleep walking into oblivion it seems.
Just sleep walking into oblivion it seems.
I keep hearing MPs and the DUP spouting rubbish about wanting the backstop to be time limited or give the UK the ability to withdraw from it.
Maybe i'm misunderstanding the purpose of it, but isn't a backstop an agreed position that both sides default to in the event of no agreement. In the case of this one largely to protect the GFA yes?
In which case wouldn't making it time limited or the UK having the ability to pull out of it make it pointless?
Why would the EU want to help her to get the UK out of the EU?
You are spot on. The debate about the backstop is probably the stupidest of them all.