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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sun_tzu said:
Gut feeling.... But how about may to call (another) snap general election

This would almost certainly force labour to have in their manifesto a 2nd referendum as its the overwhelming preference of the membership... But could cost them a fair few seats

But might give may a working majority to get her deal through?

She seems to be running out of other options so perhaps a last roll of the dice?
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Instead of a second referendum, labour can just declare they will cancel A50? This way even remain Torries may end up voting labour?
 
sun_tzu said:
Gut feeling.... But how about may to call (another) snap general election

This would almost certainly force labour to have in their manifesto a 2nd referendum as its the overwhelming preference of the membership... But could cost them a fair few seats

But might give may a working majority to get her deal through?

She seems to be running out of other options so perhaps a last roll of the dice?
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I think it’s very unlikely the Tory leadership would risk a general election right now.
 
The Firestarter said:
Instead of a second referendum, labour can just declare they will cancel A50? This way even remain Torries may end up voting labour?
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Unilaterally overturning the result of the referendum... When they hold a number of the largest majority of leave seats... I suspect they would loose more seats than they would win in such a scenario.
Which is why I think may might just try it
 
Every politician became brexiter after the first plebescite . But it's obvious now that the only way for the country to not get royally fecked is to remain. Combine the referendum and the GE and be done with it quickly.
 
The Firestarter said:
Every politician became brexiter after the first plebescite . But it's obvious now that the only way for the country to not get royally fecked is to remain. Combine the referendum and the GE and be done with it quickly.
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Corbyn and McDonnell have always been brexiters, that's why they've resisted their own membership's call for a second referendum for so long.
 
I think a GE is unlikely to be called by May to resolve the issue. The conservative party hates the WA, 80% of the membership despise it as do 117 MPs and will not campaign for it. If the WA is in the manifesto Labour would win very comfortably. Quite possible the conservative party would split altogether.

May is trying to figure out how she can cling on in number 10 by any means possible. Fairly certain extending article 50 is her first choice for more negotiations on trade. That will surely be shot down by the EU27 though. No one wants more uncertainty for a year without any guarantee of resolution. The only beneficiary of this plan is May!

She might try some kind of softer Brexit compromise but is very hamstrung it what she can do by the factions in the party. That is why she won't rule out no deal for Corbyn to join talks. Doesn't want to upset the ERG.

I still think she will cling for a bit longer on but won't find a solution, ultimately she will lose the support of her own party with the ERG or remain side and the government will lose a confidence vote. Either Labour or a national government will end up withdrawing article 50 as no other choice, blame it on May and there will then be a GE.
 
Honest John said:
He is not interested in the EU. This was plainly demonstrated with his luke-warm attitude in the referendum campaign where, having declared (reluctantly) that Labour were behind Remain, did next to sod all in terms of trying to bring core Labour voters on side. They abandoned him then but came back in some way at the 2017 election when Labour ran on a manifesto to implement the result. If he comes out for a 2nd ref they will abandon him again and he know's that. The EU holds little interest for Corbyn. It is just not a factor in his world view.
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Yes it's clear he's not particularly interested. Seems to think his other policies are far more important .Problem is that if the UK leaves and the country's economy goes to pot he wouldn't be able to implement the policies he wants anyway .

I'm not judging him on his policies, just his sheer stupidity and lack of presence as a leader. The Tories can't believe their luck that they made such a pig's ear of their governance that they had a person even more incompetent on the opposition benches.
 
André Dominguez said:
I was just making a small joke that post. You don't have to worry that much, since you already have address, fiscal number, BUT you should apply to a Permanent Residency just to make it safe. I suggest you do it before 29 March (Brexit date) and asap, because you know how our local authorities are sluggish with paper work, because nobody knows how the Brexit deal will come out.

Please read this official document carefully to check if everything is OK

https://imigrante.sef.pt/wp-content/uploads/Folheto_Brexit_EN.pdf
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Thanks I'll look into this. Not yet a permanent resident but travel between UK and Portugal regularly so think I'll register and see what happens.
 
sun_tzu said:
Gut feeling.... But how about may to call (another) snap general election

This would almost certainly force labour to have in their manifesto a 2nd referendum as its the overwhelming preference of the membership... But could cost them a fair few seats

But might give may a working majority to get her deal through?

She seems to be running out of other options so perhaps a last roll of the dice?
Click to expand...

I don't think it's that unlikely, she's basically been campaigning for weeks now.

It's also the only chance of getting a referendum in my opinion. I don't think they'll be the votes in parlaiment for a referendum with so many Labour rebels but as you say with a GE the membership will demand it and as it's a new mandate it leaves MPs able to justify their ref vote.

My preference would be a Cooper led Labour GE but retaining the direction of the party. I think the electoral math doesn't work in Labours favour but you have to hope the remain Tories will abandon partisanship unlike their MPs.
 
sun_tzu said:
Gut feeling.... But how about may to call (another) snap general election

This would almost certainly force labour to have in their manifesto a 2nd referendum as its the overwhelming preference of the membership... But could cost them a fair few seats

But might give may a working majority to get her deal through?

She seems to be running out of other options so perhaps a last roll of the dice?
Click to expand...

Would also force the ERG loons to campaign on whatever is in the Tory mandate. Would the country just be pissed off at another ge and protest vote though?
 
maniak said:
I am not 100% sure about the following, so take it with a pinch of salt. We have a thing called a golden visa for non-EU citizens, where basically you can enter and stay in the country as if you were a EU citizen.

To be eligible for one of these golden visas you must either:

- own property worth at least 500k euros
- have at least 1 million euros invested in the country
- create a certain number of local jobs~

These numbers may have changed because the law was updated and I remember reading that if you invested a certain amount in renovations or improvements in the property, the value drops to 350k euros.

Anyway, as I said you probably would have to get more accurate information but these special visas are a thing and maybe you qualify.
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Thanks for reply. I knew about golden visa (Madonna did it last year) but I'm not eligible or can afford one.
 
Smores said:
I don't think it's that unlikely, she's basically been campaigning for weeks now.

It's also the only chance of getting a referendum in my opinion. I don't think they'll be the votes in parlaiment for a referendum with so many Labour rebels but as you say with a GE the membership will demand it and as it's a new mandate it leaves MPs able to justify their ref vote.

My preference would be a Cooper led Labour GE but retaining the direction of the party. I think the electoral math doesn't work in Labours favour but you have to hope the remain Tories will abandon partisanship unlike their MPs.
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Seeing Cooper at PMQs would be great fun. She would skewer May.
 
RochaRoja said:
Most British people are either unaware or underestimate the crimes of the British Empire. British culture in general tries to sell this white washed myth of the empire that was an unambiguous force for good.
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During my schooling (I'm mid 50s) the crimes of Empire were simply not taught but then neither was it portrayed as unambiguously good. These days however I think there is widespread recognition of the harm that came from Empire and for some this is difficult to swallow. Most countries view their own history through a particularly subjective lens and the UK is no different in that respect. In fact it is this post colonial power coming to terms with it's past and forging an identity for the modern world that plays a huge part in the political struggle we're witnessing. The country has seen a rapid and massive loss of Empire with the influence and power that came with it, a speed of deindustrialisation not seen elsewhere and enormous wide scale immigration. It's very identity has been fragmented and the fight now is over the new one being forged.

I keep saying it but these are fascinating times for the UK. It's almost like a rebirth.
 
Wibble said:
This is lining up to be the worst thing to happen to Britain in living memory. It is already a disaster that is costing us jobs.
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Totally agree my friend and it still get much worse.

Like you I am very concerned about the increasing threat of job losses.
I have to say that that was the prime reason I voted to remain.
This country was just coming out of the Global financial crisis recession and the very last thing we needed was all this.

It could set our economy well back into recession.
 
Hammerfell said:
This sort of snarky comment is part of the problem I have with Leave voters. No solutions, just an incredibly naive and/or arrogant opinion of "oh we'll be fine, get on with it".

Utterly useless drivel.
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My apology. I was hoping to lighten up what is an increasingly depressing debate.
I voted leave by the way.
 
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