Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Revan]

A non binding referendum between “No deal” and “No Brexit” would be sensible. With the acknowledgement that parliament is still to try to get a satisfactory deal, but that they understand what the “default position” should be if an acceptable deal is not agreed upon.

Actually, that might be the best solution (not the stupid one I have yesterday).

Set the referendum between "no deal" and "no Brexit".

Let May continue discuss with EU for the remaining two months. At the end of it, she sets another vote in the parliament where the parliament decides if they accept May's deal (which might be better than what they have now, or not). If the parliament decides to accept it, then soft Brexit. Otherwise, the result of the referendum.

Or do the voting first, and the referendum later (something like the voting at end of February), and the referendum at end of March (while there is still time to revoke A50). Of course, if the parliament accepts May's deal, no reason for referendum.

 

[Wibble]

May not budging on no deal & seemingly reluctant to ask to extend article 50:

Following her meeting on Thursday, Green MP Caroline Lucas said the PM refused to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

"I repeatedly urged her again and again to take 'no deal' off the table because I think it completely skews the talks because you know that cliff edge is there," she said.

Mrs May was also resisting the option of extending Article 50, Ms Lucas said.

So no change then. Take my deal or we lurch out hard Brexit style. May seems to be missing the fundamental nature of a consultation and negotiation.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Corbyn is a moron

 

[Drifter]

Ok .Why is he a moron.

 

[stevoc]

Am I really.
If you recall we were told by Cameron that this was a once in a lifetime vote.
Well I am still alive.

There is still time to do the thingthat should have been done in the first place and get cross party consensus.

Yeah whose lifetime though?

Cameron didn't have the power to block successive Prime Ministers from calling another referendum.

It was a meaningless statement.

 

[Ducklegs]

May not budging on no deal & seemingly reluctant to ask to extend article 50:

Following her meeting on Thursday, Green MP Caroline Lucas said the PM refused to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

"I repeatedly urged her again and again to take 'no deal' off the table because I think it completely skews the talks because you know that cliff edge is there," she said.

Mrs May was also resisting the option of extending Article 50, Ms Lucas said.

The problem with ruling out no deal, is it leaves you no leverage in negotiation.

NOBODY wants no deal, but you have to at least be convincing that you are prepared to go down that road.

The fact that people, supposedly intelligent, and worldy wise dont understand that you cant win a poker game when you havent even got any cards quite frankly amazes me.

The very fact that on the 29th of March we will be leaving with no deal is THE BEST WAY TO BUT PRESSURE ON PEOPLE TO GET A DEAL.

Cast your mind back to last year and the noth Korea situation, nobody gave a feck about NK and their mad rantings, until the had nuclear weapons, then they had some leverage.

Nobody listens to Russia, until they turn the Gas off.

Nobody listens to the workers, until they strike,


For a supposedly left wingers , for them not to understand withdrawl of labour and disruption of service as a negotiating tool, incredible!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Ok .Why is he a moron.

Because you can't take no deal off the table unless you are prepared to cancel Brexit and his ridiculous Brexit strategy is a non-starter as it was for the Tories in 2016.

 

[Adebesi]

The problem with ruling out no deal, is it leaves you no leverage in negotiation.

NOBODY wants no deal, but you have to at least be convincing that you are prepared to go down that road.

The fact that people, supposedly intelligent, and worldy wise dont understand that you cant win a poker game when you havent even got any cards quite frankly amazes me.

This again.

The problem is this is not really comparable to other types of negotiation where walking away is a plausible option. If you are haggling over the price of something you can threaten to walk away and all that happens is there is no sale. In this instance, we walk away with no deal and we plunge the country into unfathomable chaos. There is no point pretending this isnt the case because everyone knows it is. Our side knows it, their side knows it, most informed people debating in this thread know it. We tried pretending we didnt know it but it didnt work, they called our bluff and May is no longer saying "no deal is better than a bad deal" because she looked ridiculous and nobody bought it. The only people still pretending are the likes of JRM and Johnson, but they know it too and no doubt they have arranged their finances to protect their assets if no deal does happen, because as unscrupulous as they might be, they arent complete morons.

A better analogy would be trying to talk someone down off a ledge, threatening to throw themselves off unless they get their old job back / their wife comes back / they can see their kids every other weekend. One side is standing at the bottom of the building trying to reason with the person standing on the ledge, wondering a) how serious they are b) whether what they are asking for is even possible and c) if this nutter actually goes through with this, what does it mean for me?

 

[Drifter]

Because you can't take no deal off the table unless you are prepared to cancel Brexit and his ridiculous Brexit strategy is a non-starter as it was for the Tories in 2016.

Phillip Hammond as said that no deal could be taken of the table in days.

 

[Smores]

The problem with ruling out no deal, is it leaves you no leverage in negotiation.

NOBODY wants no deal, but you have to at least be convincing that you are prepared to go down that road.

The fact that people, supposedly intelligent, and worldy wise dont understand that you cant win a poker game when you havent even got any cards quite frankly amazes me.

The very fact that on the 29th of March we will be leaving with no deal is THE BEST WAY TO BUT PRESSURE ON PEOPLE TO GET A DEAL.

Cast your mind back to last year and the noth Korea situation, nobody gave a feck about NK and their mad rantings, until the had nuclear weapons, then they had some leverage.

Nobody listens to Russia, until they turn the Gas off.

Nobody listens to the workers, until they strike,


For a supposedly left wingers , for them not to understand withdrawl of labour and disruption of service as a negotiating tool, incredible!

That's true, it's worked very well so far

Which people are you suggesting it gets leverage over? Parlaiment who can circumvent May or the EU who we're no longer negotiating with?

 

[Buster15]

We should be afraid. Leave with a deal will be an economic and social disaster but leaving without a deal will be worse by an order of magnitude.

I am pleased that you are feeling so positive.

 

[Smores]

Because you can't take no deal off the table unless you are prepared to cancel Brexit and his ridiculous Brexit strategy is a non-starter as it was for the Tories in 2016.

You're being flippant. When he and the other parties are saying off the table they're clearly not talking about removing it from the world of potential outcomes but the options of choice.

May can declare she's willing to extend if the EU allow or revoke if they don't to avoid it.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Phillip Hammond as said that no deal could be taken of the table in days.

Yes, which would mean that parliament could agree to cancel Brexit.
The problem is that the leaders of both major parties don't want to cancel Brexit and according to both their manifestoes said they would leave the EU.

And to get to the next stage , even if Corbyn's unicorns were possible you still have to have a withdrawal agreement which has been resoundly rejected.
It's gridlock and the Uk could easily slip off the edge with nothing.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Too many to mention. But are you of the opinion that the remain side was lily white.

Ah cmon, mention a few sure.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

the Uk could easily slip off the edge with nothing.

Lies, we'll always have St Jeremy.

 

[sun_tzu]

Phillip Hammond as said that no deal could be taken of the table in days.

It seems pretty obvious to me corbyns play is to try to get may to take no deal off the table
at which point he launches another confidence motion thinking that with no deal ruled out enough of the ERG might rebel against her
As such I dont see her doing that... its basically the equivalent of her saying she would welcome talks with Jeremy corbyn provided he agrees to rule out a second referendum

 

[Paul the Wolf]

You're being flippant. When he and the other parties are saying off the table they're clearly not talking about removing it from the world of potential outcomes but the options of choice.

May can declare she's willing to extend if the EU allow or revoke if they don't to avoid it.

I'm being deadly serious. Anyone with a minute degree of common sense would obviously reject No Deal but to do that you have to have a mechanism to stop it and the ultimate mechanism is to allow cancelling Brexit with or without a referendum and both May and Corbyn don't want to cancel Brexit.

 

[Buster15]

Who give a toss about a soundbite from an idiot like Cameron? The idiot that got us into this mess. No more meaningful than 1000 other idiotic soundbites.

And there isn't time as a) there is no time and b) there is no concensus.

The intention is to try to get cross party consensus using a series of indicative votes in order to more clearly identify what could and could not be acceptable.

 

[Walrus]

One of the big mistakes May has made is in apparently taking the revocation of A50 off the table. The fact that we are able to unilaterally revoke A50 is one of the few cards that the UK holds in the negotiations. It might be a dick move, but there is nothing to stop us from revoking on 28th March, and then triggering A50 again on the 29th - buying another two years. Any changes to how A50 can be used (to prevent such loopholes) we can presumably just veto, as is within our power as an EU member.

There needs to be a distinction that revoking A50 doesn’t (necessarily) mean cancelling Brexit full stop. At that point, we can basically screw around the EU a bit if they refuse to play ball. Again it would be a dick move, but at this point that really should be the least of our concerns.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

"This paper focuses on the immediate impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow"...

It then proceeded to state that at least 500,000 jobs would be lost and GDP would be 3.6% smaller within those two years.

From a very quick search, GDP has fallen and there's been big job losses. So the scale of the prediction might have been wrong, but the direction of it was not at all.

 

[Drifter]

Poll: Remain now has largest lead witnessed since EU referendum

The YouGov survey of more than 1,000 voters found 56% would now vote to stay in the EU, against 44% who want to leave.

It gives Remain a lead of 12% over Leave.

Exactly the same proportion of voters said they wanted a second EU referendum - three points higher than recorded in a similar poll before Christmas. Backing for a so-called People’s Vote among Labour supporters stood at 78%.

The Remain lead was extended further when respondents were asked to compare it to May’s Withdrawal Agreement or the option of leaving the EU without a deal.

Against the prime minister’s deal, Remain led by 65% to 35%, while against no-deal was 59%-41% in favour of staying in the EU.

Labour MP Chuka Umunna, a leading supporter of the People’s Vote campaign, said the government now needs to change course.

He said: “There is now a clear and expanding majority for staying in the EU and an even bigger one when voters have the chance to look at the real options for leaving.”

Umunna said that the poll had exposed the compromises of “Norway-plus” or customs union membership as “niche positions supported by less than one in 10 voters”.

In a three-way choice, voters split 52% for Remain, 39% for no-deal and 9% for Norway-plus, and 54% for Remain, 38% for no-deal and 8% for a customs union deal.

“The poll also underlines why the leadership of my party needs to listen to Labour’s own supporters, more than three-quarters of whom are demanding a People’s Vote,” said Umunna.

“To ignore those calls now would be an historic mistake for which Labour would not be forgiven.”

 

[sun_tzu]

One of the big mistakes May has made is in apparently taking the revocation of A50 off the table. The fact that we are able to unilaterally revoke A50 is one of the few cards that the UK holds in the negotiations. It might be a dick move, but there is nothing to stop us from revoking on 28th March, and then triggering A50 again on the 29th - buying another two years. Any changes to how A50 can be used (to prevent such loopholes) we can presumably just veto, as is within our power as an EU member.

There needs to be a distinction that revoking A50 doesn’t (necessarily) mean cancelling Brexit full stop. At that point, we can basically screw around the EU a bit if they refuse to play ball. Again it would be a dick move, but at this point that really should be the least of our concerns.

in a real dick move we could even veto the budget and and basically throw a tantrum to try and get our own way - probably not a good move if your trying to negotiate a future trade deal though

 

[Drifter]

That's the best you're going to get out of Corbyn at the moment.

Quizzed about a new referendum, Mr Corbyn said: "The question of another referendum is on the table."

He says Labour "are running though a sequence of events".

The first event was to vote down Mrs May's deal, which has been done.

The second was the motion of no confidence, which failed.

Mr Corbyn then states he would still like a general election.

If that fails then he says a referendum is possible but it "cannot be a re-run" of the 2016 vote.

"There has to be a discussion about the options we put forward," he says.

 

[sun_tzu]

Poll: Remain now has largest lead witnessed since EU referendum

The YouGov survey of more than 1,000 voters found 56% would now vote to stay in the EU, against 44% who want to leave.

It gives Remain a lead of 12% over Leave.

Exactly the same proportion of voters said they wanted a second EU referendum - three points higher than recorded in a similar poll before Christmas. Backing for a so-called People’s Vote among Labour supporters stood at 78%.

The Remain lead was extended further when respondents were asked to compare it to May’s Withdrawal Agreement or the option of leaving the EU without a deal.

Against the prime minister’s deal, Remain led by 65% to 35%, while against no-deal was 59%-41% in favour of staying in the EU.

Labour MP Chuka Umunna, a leading supporter of the People’s Vote campaign, said the government now needs to change course.

He said: “There is now a clear and expanding majority for staying in the EU and an even bigger one when voters have the chance to look at the real options for leaving.”

Umunna said that the poll had exposed the compromises of “Norway-plus” or customs union membership as “niche positions supported by less than one in 10 voters”.

In a three-way choice, voters split 52% for Remain, 39% for no-deal and 9% for Norway-plus, and 54% for Remain, 38% for no-deal and 8% for a customs union deal.

“The poll also underlines why the leadership of my party needs to listen to Labour’s own supporters, more than three-quarters of whom are demanding a People’s Vote,” said Umunna.

“To ignore those calls now would be an historic mistake for which Labour would not be forgiven.”

labour leadership challange from somebody if corbyn wont back a second referendum?
I think there would be enough MP's who would back a challange - and with 78% in the party wanting a second ref it might be pretty close

 

[MoskvaRed]

I wish Corbyn would show even a fraction of the enthusiasm for a referendum as he did for Hugo Chávez on that BBC documentary last night.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

One of the big mistakes May has made is in apparently taking the revocation of A50 off the table. The fact that we are able to unilaterally revoke A50 is one of the few cards that the UK holds in the negotiations. It might be a dick move, but there is nothing to stop us from revoking on 28th March, and then triggering A50 again on the 29th - buying another two years. Any changes to how A50 can be used (to prevent such loopholes) we can presumably just veto, as is within our power as an EU member.

There needs to be a distinction that revoking A50 doesn’t (necessarily) mean cancelling Brexit full stop. At that point, we can basically screw around the EU a bit if they refuse to play ball. Again it would be a dick move, but at this point that really should be the least of our concerns.

No they can't revoke unless they can prove that the process is at an end.

 

[Walrus]

in a real dick move we could even veto the budget and and basically throw a tantrum to try and get our own way - probably not a good move if your trying to negotiate a future trade deal though

Agreed. But similarly discarding the only card we have is the sort of “negotiating” that has led us to where we are now.

 

[Drifter]

labour leadership challange from somebody if corbyn wont back a second referendum?
I think there would be enough MP's who would back a challange - and with 78% in the party wanting a second ref it might be pretty close

Like to think it is leaning that way .

 

[Walrus]

No they can't revoke unless they can prove that the process is at an end.

Are you sure about this? I am not that well versed in the minutiae of it all, but my understanding was that we can simply and unilaterally revoke A50, no questions asked.

 

[Raulduke]

Absolutely savage stuff from Ken Clarke here

 

[onemanarmy]

That's the best you're going to get out of Corbyn at the moment.

They do realize they only have a few months to go?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

That's the best you're going to get out of Corbyn at the moment.

Because he doesn't want Remain to be an option - he only wants a GE and to exit the EU. So transparent.

 

[Raulduke]

Are you sure about this? I am not that well versed in the minutiae of it all, but my understanding was that we can simply and unilaterally revoke A50, no questions asked.

I thought the government could unilaterally revoke it but need the EU to agree to extending it?

 

[Walrus]

I thought the government could unilaterally revoke it but need the EU to agree to extending it?

That was my understanding.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Are you sure about this? I am not that well versed in the minutiae of it all, but my understanding was that we can simply and unilaterally revoke A50, no questions asked.

That's what the Attorney General said yesterday. Not 100% sure but if it were possible friendly relations with the EU would be at an end.
Edit: you can unilaterally revoke it but I was talking about starting another 2 year period the very next day.

 

[Drifter]

They do realize they only have a few months to go?

And we are already halfway through this month. They may try to delay it.

 

[Honest John]

Think some are overestimating the intelligence of the UK electorate.

Except for a small minority of Rees Mogg types who have wet dreams of Mother Britannia's deeply imperialist history, the referendum result wasn't because of frustrations with the nuances of the EU. Most wouldn't have even known basics about its structure, or how it works.

In the eyes of the layman, there was one key issue that EU membership associated with, and that was immigration. More
than anything, the UK's deeply ingrained issues with racism were exposed.

You say that as though the UK is a world leader on racism. I would say that the UK is not that bad judging from the make-up of our population, our laws and the demand for people from other nations to come and live here. I am not saying it is perfect but if you put it up against Russia or some former Eastern block countries then I think the UK fairs quite well. Even the so-called liberal Swedes are being tested with the influx of foreign nationals. Racism is ingrained in every western nation and pretty much all of the the non-western world too in some form. And in those places, it is often openly demonstrated in the most brutal manner.

 

[Drifter]

Because he doesn't want Remain to be an option - he only wants a GE and to exit the EU. So transparent.

He as to be careful for what he wishes for.

 

[Robbo's Shoulder]

Sick to the backteeth of it all.
In all my years involved in local politics and the trade unions, i've never seen such incompetents, not just in government but in opposition too.
Not only do they lack personality and knowledge, they lack the basic life skills needed to live in real world. There should of been cross party talks from the day Cameron called the referendum and carried on throughout the process, working together for the sake of the British public. Instead, they're too busy building their own personal fiefdoms, giving not 1 damn about the man in the street.
All of this because Cameron was so insecure due to the rise of UKIP and right wing tory racists. The country is fecked, my advice is get out while you can. It can only be solved by the government growing some balls and cancelling article 50 or a 2nd referendum which i doubt very much will happen and the country instead will drop off the edge of a cliff with no deal.

 

[Jacko21]

He as to be careful for what he wishes for.

Agreed.