Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Relfy said:
Excuse my ignorance, but does this mean the the House of Lords will reject any motion towards a No Deal outcome?

If this is the case, can/will House of Lords be able to actually and legally prevent the No Deal scenario from happening? If this is the case then either we have May's deal, a new renegotiated deal or we stay in EU?
Click to expand...

I'm no expert but it just seems stupid in a sense that it's completely pointless. Unless a deal can be agreed which the EU accepts then no deal is always an option.

I don't know what the point of all this is. Is it just a politician filing a motion to protect their image in amongst all the bollocks going on? Because it all seems pointless to me.
 
If they cannot agree a deal and no deal has to be legally rejected aren't the options to extend Article 50 or not leave?

Why wasn't this opposition to No Deal stronger a year or so ago, they all let May vomit out "No deal is better than a bad deal"?
 
pocco said:
I'm no expert but it just seems stupid in a sense that it's completely pointless. Unless a deal can be agreed which the EU accepts then no deal is always an option.

I don't know what the point of all this is. Is it just a politician filing a motion to protect their image in amongst all the bollocks going on? Because it all seems pointless to me.
Click to expand...

It's pointless unless whatever decision is made in the Commons has to go to Lords for approval before proceeding. If that is the case and Commons vote for No Deal, then Lords reject it, then it has to go back to Commons until they come up with something suitable, which can only mean extension to A50 or we remain. Of course if this Lords thing means nothing and it cannot be implemented then it's a complete non-story :wenger:
 
Business for Tuesday 15 January 2019
SUMMARY AGENDA: CHAMBER
11.30am

Prayers

Afterwards

Oral Questions: Health and Social Care

12.30pm

Urgent Questions, Ministerial Statements (if any)

No debate

Presentation of Bills

Up to 20 minutes

Ten Minute Rule Motion: Public Sector Supply Chains (Project Bank Accounts) (Debbie Abrahams)

Until 7.00pm

Section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (Adjourned debate on Question (14 January))

No debate

Statutory Instruments (Motions for approval)

No debate

European Union document (UK Participation in the EU Agency For Criminal Justice Cooperation (Eurojust): Post-Adoption Opt-in Decision) (Motion)

Until 7.30pm or for half an hour

Adjournment Debate: Rail services at Chester-le-Street station (Mr Kevan Jones)
 
Relfy said:
It's pointless unless whatever decision is made in the Commons has to go to Lords for approval before proceeding. If that is the case and Commons vote for No Deal, then Lords reject it, then it has to go back to Commons until they come up with something suitable, which can only mean extension to A50 or we remain. Of course if this Lords thing means nothing and it cannot be implemented then it's a complete non-story :wenger:
Click to expand...

Or we leave with no deal.
 
Assuming May looses the vote (which seems almost certain)
and Assuming Labour finally call a confidence motion (which again seems like it will have to happen)
lets also assume they loose the confidence motion (which again seems most likley)

What will Corbyn's policy be then - will he switch his support for a second referendum (which it seems pretty clear he does not want) and if not will Labour basically fall into as big a mess as the conservatives?

In reality the confidence motion will probably be called wendesday and debated (and defeated) thurdsay or friday - so he will also have to have a plan B to present on Monday ... it really is a big mess isnt it
 
sun_tzu said:
Assuming May looses the vote (which seems almost certain)
and Assuming Labour finally call a confidence motion (which again seems like it will have to happen)
lets also assume they loose the confidence motion (which again seems most likley)

What will Corbyn's policy be then - will he switch his support for a second referendum (which it seems pretty clear he does not want) and if not will Labour basically fall into as big a mess as the conservatives?

In reality the confidence motion will probably be called wendesday and debated (and defeated) thurdsay or friday - so he will also have to have a plan B to present on Monday ... it really is a big mess isnt it
Click to expand...

Yeah they will. People keep skipping over the fact Labours approach on this was agreed by delegates at conference. Everyone knows the order, half of the peoples vote lot probably voted for it!
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Yes, around 7pm.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46868194

Benn's amendment is withdrawn too I see. Interesting very conflicted reactions to that on twitter
Click to expand...

so its more important to play party politics (and hand may a bigger defeat) than it is to block no deal

yeah I think Corbyn and Labour are gonna get crucified in the long term over that one.

They will hand may a bigger defeat but they have also lost a big opportunity to do what they said was important which was stop us crashing out without a deal - its hypocrisy at best and downright pathetic partisan politic if we are being honest

i do think it will force labours hand ultimatley as well as after the big defeat they will have to call the no confidence motion - which they most probably loose and then they will have 2 days to formulate a new plan having thrown away the chance to force a motion blocking no deal - so basically its going to put corbyn in a position where he has to make a decision on officially backing a second referendum or not
 
Kentonio said:
Not surprised. If we end up crashing out without a deal, that one decision could have been exceedingly costly.
Click to expand...

Very unlikely to happen, given the ECJ gave us the option of ending the process with a simple vote to withdraw article 50 and admission that Brexit is over / has failed.

The maths in Parliament are massively stacked against no deal. The government has admitted they don't want it and even constructed project fear mark 2 about it. Corbyn and all the Labour MPs do not want it. The only people who actually want it are a small portion of the ERG.

I believe "no deal" is still being used as a negotiation tactic by some. Like Boris Johnson. In the hope somehow the backstop is removed. The EU are fully aware of the maths in Parliament and of the stances of both major parties.

The government are basically trying to play poker with their cards face up on the table...
 
I also don't get the HoL motion. The position seems to be 1 - we are not leaving without a deal, but 2 - we are definitely leaving on 29 March, and 3- we are not accepting the only deal on offer.

Baffling stupidity.

How are the EU supposed to deal with this idiocy?
 
Smores said:
Yeah they will. People keep skipping over the fact Labours approach on this was agreed by delegates at conference. Everyone knows the order, half of the peoples vote lot probably voted for it!
Click to expand...
technically they voted to keep all options on the table - I'm not sure corbyn will switch to supporting a second ref if he does not get the election (which looks very unlikely) - probably carry on trying to keep all options open still somehow which as I say will be tough to hold the party together with that.

Perhaps May is gambling he will have to switch to supporting a second referenndum at which point she might call an election (to end the impasse) herself having basically forced labors manifesto to be apply to EU to extend A50 to run a second referendum - which to be honest might not be the most popular position in a number of labour seats.

that said the internal fights and splits (in both parties) over what their policy would be would be so fractious I wouldnt like to bet on the outcome as I could see many incumbents on both sides standing as independents
 
Mb194dc said:
Very unlikely to happen, given the ECJ gave us the option of ending the process with a simple vote to withdraw article 50 and admission that Brexit is over / has failed.

The maths in Parliament are massively stacked against no deal. The government has admitted they don't want it and even constructed project fear mark 2 about it. Corbyn and all the Labour MPs do not want it. The only people who actually want it are a small portion of the ERG.

I believe "no deal" is still being used as a negotiation tactic by some. Like Boris Johnson. In the hope somehow the backstop is removed. The EU are fully aware of the maths in Parliament and of the stances of both major parties.

The government are basically trying to play poker with their cards face up on the table...
Click to expand...

that said do you think there is a majority to unilaterally withdraw A50 without a second vote - Im genuinely not sure there is... equally Im not sure there is a majority for a second vote (though a switch in official labour policy would bring this closer) and Im not even sure there is a majority for remain if it goes to a second vote - I cant even imagine how they would structure a second vote (2 options... 3 options... more... alternative vote?... not a clue other than most people wont be happy with it)
 
sun_tzu said:
that said do you think there is a majority to unilaterally withdraw A50 without a second vote - Im genuinely not sure there is... equally Im not sure there is a majority for a second vote (though a switch in official labour policy would bring this closer) and Im not even sure there is a majority for remain if it goes to a second vote - I cant even imagine how they would structure a second vote (2 options... 3 options... more... alternative vote?... not a clue other than most people wont be happy with it)
Click to expand...

I am 99% sure that if the alternative to withdrawing article 50 is "no deal" a vote in parliament to withdraw article 50 would get 500+ votes.

A second referendum is an awful idea. Would not have legitimacy with leavers, what would the question be?, the campaign would be bitter beyond belief and make the 2016 one look like a picnic.

MPs are focussed on "delivering Brexit" and "implementing the 2016 referendum result" when none of the options in front of them actually do that and especially not the WA. In fact all the options are abysmal. First step is them growing a pair and admitting that.

Even if we did just withdraw article 50 and admit failure there is still hope for leavers. The question of the EU would have to be revisited the in future and depending on developments within the EU we might be in a much better position.
 
Mb194dc said:
Very unlikely to happen, given the ECJ gave us the option of ending the process with a simple vote to withdraw article 50 and admission that Brexit is over / has failed.

The maths in Parliament are massively stacked against no deal. The government has admitted they don't want it and even constructed project fear mark 2 about it. Corbyn and all the Labour MPs do not want it. The only people who actually want it are a small portion of the ERG.

I believe "no deal" is still being used as a negotiation tactic by some. Like Boris Johnson. In the hope somehow the backstop is removed. The EU are fully aware of the maths in Parliament and of the stances of both major parties.

The government are basically trying to play poker with their cards face up on the table...
Click to expand...

The danger here isn't that parliament is suddenly going to vote for no-deal, it's that the rank incompetence, arrogance and abject stupidity of the government could make us stumble unwittingly into that outcome. No deal is the default outcome, and the government still has huge power over what can and cannot be debated and voted on. Oh and there's only 74 days left.
 
sun_tzu said:
technically they voted to keep all options on the table - I'm not sure corbyn will switch to supporting a second ref if he does not get the election (which looks very unlikely) - probably carry on trying to keep all options open still somehow which as I say will be tough to hold the party together with that.

Perhaps May is gambling he will have to switch to supporting a second referenndum at which point she might call an election (to end the impasse) herself having basically forced labors manifesto to be apply to EU to extend A50 to run a second referendum - which to be honest might not be the most popular position in a number of labour seats.

that said the internal fights and splits (in both parties) over what their policy would be would be so fractious I wouldnt like to bet on the outcome as I could see many incumbents on both sides standing as independents
Click to expand...

When May loses tonight’s vote by 100plus then she surely has to implement a no deal exit.
She has categorically stated time and time again that no deal is better than a bad deal, well if she can’t get her deal through and according to her and her sheep, sorry supporters there is no option as The EU will not reconsider or renegotiate with The UK.

So are we are looking at a no deal exit? Will May surprise us all and win tonight’s vote? Will she do the honourable thing and walk away when she loses? Will Corbyn cross over the floor, bend May over slip her a nasty and say,
“there how’s that for an unexpected bit of cross party input”?
So many questions so much head scratching.
 
The Firestarter said:
I understand , but to not be a plan for this when no deal was in fact a very likely option for a considerable time is extremely damning for the entirety of government and legislation. It's just baffling that it is indeed plausible nobody knows what they are doing.
Click to expand...

To be fair this would have been massively complicated process even for a competent government. Trying to unravel 50 years of integration in a short time was never going to go smoothly.

Of course a competent Government might have waited before putting article 50 in motion and found out what Brexit would actually entail and what it would require to carry out before putting a deadline on it.
 
Last edited:
stevoc said:
To be fair this would have been massively complicated process even for a competent government. Trying to unravel 50 years of integration in a short time was never going to go smoothly.

Of course a competent Government might have waited to before putting article 50 in motion and found out what Brexit would actually entails and what it would require to carry out before putting a deadline on it.
Click to expand...
Precisely.
 
stevoc said:
To be fair this would have been massively complicated process even for a competent government. Trying to unravel 50 years of integration in a short time was never going to go smoothly.

Of course a competent Government might have waited to before putting article 50 in motion and found out what Brexit would actually entails and what it would require to carry out before putting a deadline on it.
Click to expand...
Brexit means Brexit
 
I'll never forgive the vacuous cnut for her 'If you're a citizen of the world, you're a citizen of nowhere' line. Few things have ever summed up the Little Englander mentality better than that moment.
 
Melville Red said:
When May loses tonight’s vote by 100plus then she surely has to implement a no deal exit.
She has categorically stated time and time again that no deal is better than a bad deal, well if she can’t get her deal through and according to her and her sheep, sorry supporters there is no option as The EU will not reconsider or renegotiate with The UK.

So are we are looking at a no deal exit? Will May surprise us all and win tonight’s vote? Will she do the honourable thing and walk away when she loses? Will Corbyn cross over the floor, bend May over slip her a nasty and say,
“there how’s that for an unexpected bit of cross party input”?
So many questions so much head scratching.
Click to expand...

The EU will renegotiate if the red lines change significantly they've said as much. Extend and arrange a permanent custom union is an option that may actually pass and what May if she had sense would do.

I don't know if it was possible but they should have negotiated various options at the start that could have been voted on before the detailed discussions began.
 
sun_tzu said:
Brexit means Brexit
Click to expand...

Indeed, and thats about as much as most people politicians included understood in 2016. Three years later most people and politicians still don't seem to have much of a clue.
 
stevoc said:
Indeed, and thats about as much as most people politicians included understood in 2016. Three years later most people and politicians still don't seem to have much of a clue.
Click to expand...

It'll be a blue, white and red Brexit.
 
Smores said:
The EU will renegotiate if the red lines change significantly they've said as much. Extend and arrange a permanent custom union is an option that may actually pass and what May if she had sense would do.

I don't know if it was possible but they should have negotiated various options at the start that could have been voted on before the detailed discussions began.
Click to expand...

Yes but not the Corbyn/Starmer version of it.

Not a Customs Union, the Customs Union.
Single Market access with the 4 freedoms.

Therefore no end to FoM, no individual trade deals and still overseen by the ECJ . Still paying contributions .What's the point of leaving?
Fantasyland has finished.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes but not the Corbyn/Starmer version of it.

Not a Customs Union, the Customs Union.
Single Market access with the 4 freedoms.

Therefore no end to FoM, no individual trade deals and still overseen by the ECJ . Still paying contributions .What's the point of leaving?
Fantasyland has finished.
Click to expand...

Immigration is going to be a key part of any trade negotiations anyway. I mean, what bargaining chips can the UK being to the table in negotiations with, say, Japan other than the offer of visas?
 
Gee Male said:
Immigration is going to be a key part of any trade negotiations anyway. I mean, what bargaining chips can the UK being to the table in negotiations with, say, Japan other than the offer of visas?
Click to expand...

It will certainly play a part with India and China. Most countries are interested in access to the whole of the EU, if the UK has left this attraction is no longer there.
What completely bemuses me is why little old UK thinks it will get better deals with any country than they already have through the EU.
 
So does the Caf reckon there’s any chance of a surprise win for May or is it as obvious a defeat as it seems?

Is it more interesting what she decides to do after losing?
 
Relfy said:
Going back to my original post/quote, the House of Lords have passed something essentially blocking a no deal scenario. All depends whether what they wish to implement can be done or not....Feck knows
Click to expand...

They can't prohibit no deal as that is the default that will occur if we don't take the deal or delay leaving or revoke A50.
 
Minimalist said:
So does the Caf reckon there’s any chance of a surprise win for May or is it as obvious a defeat as it seems?

Is it more interesting what she decides to do after losing?
Click to expand...

She'll lose but whatever deal any government brings back it will be voted down, there are too many divisions and I can't see parliament agreeing on anything.
 
Wibble said:
They can't prohibit no deal as that is the default that will occur if we don't take the deal or delay leaving or revoke A50.
Click to expand...

They could just legislate that the default position is that Article 50 is revoked unless a deal is agreed upon.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.