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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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endless_wheelies said:
Well on the tiered model there are about 6 rungs, Corbyn wants to shift to upwards in integration and market access whilst the hard right-wing Conservatives want to shift downwards. Regarding Corbyn so long as you're not on the top rung you can claim to have ended "freedom of movement" and Labour's shtick is that they are prioritising the economy over immigration anyway, so I think that's what he's talking about when he refers to his big plan for renegotiating.

When I talk about rewording the declaration I mean that in relation to dressing up that process as "renegotiating" for May to take back in the hope that politicians lose their nerve at the second round of parliamentary voting on it; at the second referendum the EU will push the boat out much further as far as emergency brakes, kickbacks etc go.
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I haven't seen a six tier model - what I have seen he wants a new Customs Union but still being able to run their own trade policy and having a say in trade deals plus access to the single market while setting their own immigration policies.
This is totally against the four freedoms and don't see how the EU could ever agree. How much is he prepared to pay for this privilege and what about ECJ. Sounds even more cherry picking than May. The Uk already have control over EU citizens just that they never applied the law. He also hasn't said what his immigration policies would be.

As the EU have said so many times if a country is not in the EU they do not get the benefits and they consider that the UK will be getting the best relationship with the EU of all the third countries.
I also don't believe the EU are as desperate for the UK to stay as much as the UK think they do. 27 countries are watching very carefully at what the UK are offered.
 
CA_vampire said:
In France, the "yellow vest" protesters won something. Perhaps the Remainers can learn from them? What if they organize large scale protests demanding a second referendum? Three years of craziness are enough. I know it sound silly, but someone has to step up to resolve the Brexit problem.
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Last thing we want is remainers and Brexiteers going toe to toe on the streets.
 
CA_vampire said:
In France, the "yellow vest" protesters won something. Perhaps the Remainers can learn from them? What if they organize large scale protests demanding a second referendum? Three years of craziness are enough. I know it sound silly, but someone has to step up to resolve the Brexit problem.
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It's hard to see the people who attended the people's vote march setting fire to their own porsches.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I haven't seen a six tier model - what I have seen he wants a new Customs Union but still being able to run their own trade policy and having a say in trade deals plus access to the single market while setting their own immigration policies.
This is totally against the four freedoms and don't see how the EU could ever agree. How much is he prepared to pay for this privilege and what about ECJ. Sounds even more cherry picking than May. The Uk already have control over EU citizens just that they never applied the law. He also hasn't said what his immigration policies would be.

As the EU have said so many times if a country is not in the EU they do not get the benefits and they consider that the UK will be getting the best relationship with the EU of all the third countries.
I also don't believe the EU are as desperate for the UK to stay as much as the UK think they do. 27 countries are watching very carefully at what the UK are offered.
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Does Corbyn definitely want to be able to strike independent trade deals? As far as I've seen he's been extremely vague on everything so far; what are "immigration policies that don't set targets and thresholds", what is a "British say in future deals"... I'd say it's obvious he wants his own bespoke EFTA-type agreement, maintaining the four freedoms but with a few things given up for a few extra controls a la Norway but not officially like Norway. Then he'll max out our credit line making all the underlying causes of the leave vote temporarily go away.

As far as the EU not caring if the UK leaves, I'm sure you know the UK is the 4th largest importer in the world, the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, second largest security and military budgets... I don't think the president of Latvia is going to get any fancy ideas because we got some extra rebate and an immigration brake after these two years of absolute hell. Not that by necessity those are exclusive offers to us anyway.
 
endless_wheelies said:
Does Corbyn definitely want to be able to strike independent trade deals? As far as I've seen he's been extremely vague on everything so far; what are "immigration policies that don't set targets and thresholds", what is a "British say in future deals"... I'd say it's obvious he wants his own bespoke EFTA-type agreement, maintaining the four freedoms but with a few things given up for a few extra controls a la Norway but not officially like Norway. Then he'll max out our credit line making all the underlying causes of the leave vote temporarily go away.

As far as the EU not caring if the UK leaves, I'm sure you know the UK is the 4th largest importer in the world, the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, second largest security and military budgets... I don't think the president of Latvia is going to get any fancy ideas because we got some extra rebate and an immigration brake after these two years of absolute hell. Not that by necessity those are exclusive offers to us anyway.
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Corbyn wants to be PM. He doesn't want to take a position at all if he can help it to avoid pissing off Brexiteers or remainers or his base.
 
Wibble said:
An offer to subscribe to the Financial Times?
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Leave campaigners prepare quietly for second Brexit referendum
Lynton Crosby aide working behind the scenes with Eurosceptics on strategy for new vote


Prominent Leave campaigners are making behind-the-scenes preparations for a second referendum, according to MPs and activists, in the growing belief that stalemate over Brexit in parliament could eventually force the issue back to the electorate. Several people involved said that an aide to Lynton Crosby, the Australian political strategist behind the Conservatives’ 2015 election victory, has been working with Eurosceptic MPs in plotting the future course of Brexit. This has included informal conversations on how to handle another plebiscite.
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endless_wheelies said:
As far as the EU not caring if the UK leaves, I'm sure you know the UK is the 4th largest importer in the world, the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, second largest security and military budgets...
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I think people forget the political impact on EU of the UK leaving, which might very well be more important than the economic one. After all, this has long stopped being just an Economic Union to become an ambitious political project.

Before the referendum there were all kind of ideas floating around about how the EU was in danger, about how that could become the first step into future disintegration, etc. I remember doom analysts on TV and newspapers equating the Brexit referendum almost to a vote on the survival of Europe.

Three years later and Europe seems more united politically then ever. Even countries like Italy with severe problems and in which an exit was also (superficially) discussed seem to have deviated from the idea.

I think EU main leaders see Brexit as an opportunity to make EU stronger. After all, the UK always seemed the less politically commited of all big members. As it stands, the UK will either be out, or, if it remains, it will do so with renewed will.

Since the referendum, you saw zero attempts from EU to try and influence or sway Brexit from happening. What at first seemed just like some form of political etiquette (i.e., "British people voted for this so lets respect them and be complicit") now seems more and more like a deliberate will to make it happen.

Personally, as a supporter of european integration, I was terrified of brexit and am now satisfied by it. It's almost as if this has all been planned along for "our" own benefit.
 
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endless_wheelies said:
Does Corbyn definitely want to be able to strike independent trade deals? As far as I've seen he's been extremely vague on everything so far; what are "immigration policies that don't set targets and thresholds", what is a "British say in future deals"... I'd say it's obvious he wants his own bespoke EFTA-type agreement, maintaining the four freedoms but with a few things given up for a few extra controls a la Norway but not officially like Norway. Then he'll max out our credit line making all the underlying causes of the leave vote temporarily go away.

As far as the EU not caring if the UK leaves, I'm sure you know the UK is the 4th largest importer in the world, the second biggest contributor to the EU budget, second largest security and military budgets... I don't think the president of Latvia is going to get any fancy ideas because we got some extra rebate and an immigration brake after these two years of absolute hell. Not that by necessity those are exclusive offers to us anyway.
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What Corbyn says he wants is very vague , if you are maintaining the four freedoms you may as well stay in the EU, because the Uk will still have to pay, still follow the same rules, the only thing they won't have is a say in the EU and they won't get a say unless they are in the EU.

The biggest threat to the UK is grinding the country to a halt or or at least massive logistical problems and no amount of borrowing is going to help that.
The EU have long accepted the UK are leaving and just want to make the divorce as least painful as possible. The deal offered to May suits the EU and for the UK should suit them if they are actually leaving.

The EU will suffer to an extent but they are not going to feel anywhere near the effects that the UK will. The EU have lost an agreement with one country. The UK have lost agreements with over 70 countries and the borders of the UK will be closed and the EU's are open to all the other EU countries.
Latvia suddenly becomes more powerful than the UK because they have the whole of the EU with them.
 
I think it's a bit naive to take the EU on their absolute word that no renegotiation will occur, they've been trying to support May on pushing this through and they're just taking a helpful position now.

Whilst we're never going to be able to cherry pick It would be foolish not to go back especially under new leadership (ideally cross-party) with new red lines to see what can be done.

All roads will lead to a people's vote but if you're saying this is the only deal on the table in any context that's just a lie to the public.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
What Corbyn says he wants is very vague , if you are maintaining the four freedoms you may as well stay in the EU, because the Uk will still have to pay, still follow the same rules, the only thing they won't have is a say in the EU and they won't get a say unless they are in the EU.

The biggest threat to the UK is grinding the country to a halt or or at least massive logistical problems and no amount of borrowing is going to help that.
The EU have long accepted the UK are leaving and just want to make the divorce as least painful as possible. The deal offered to May suits the EU and for the UK should suit them if they are actually leaving.

The EU will suffer to an extent but they are not going to feel anywhere near the effects that the UK will. The EU have lost an agreement with one country. The UK have lost agreements with over 70 countries and the borders of the UK will be closed and the EU's are open to all the other EU countries.
Latvia suddenly becomes more powerful than the UK because they have the whole of the EU with them.
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In what sense would Latvia be 'more powerful' than? More diplomatic weight around the world? You honestly think that just because they're a minor EU member countries worldwide would take them more seriously than the UK, a nuclear power which has one of the biggest economies and military budgets in the world and a very close relationship with the world's most powerful entity (the United States). Is Latvia more powerful than Russia too, simply because they're a member of the EU?

The idea that just being part of the EU would make every member of the EU more 'powerful' than us is hyperbole, and I think leaving is a shit decision.
 
Smores said:
I think it's a bit naive to take the EU on their absolute word that no renegotiation will occur, they've been trying to support May on pushing this through and they're just taking a helpful position now.

Whilst we're never going to be able to cherry pick It would be foolish not to go back especially under new leadership (ideally cross-party) with new red lines to see what can be done.

All roads will lead to a people's vote but if you're saying this is the only deal on the table in any context that's just a lie to the public.
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I put this question before, what do people expect the EU to change from this offer? It's just a withdrawal agreement with a political declaration as to what the future relationship will look like. Sounds like clutching at straws.
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
In what sense would Latvia be 'more powerful' than? More diplomatic weight around the world? You honestly think that just because they're a minor EU member countries worldwide would take them more seriously than the UK, a nuclear power which has one of the biggest economies and military budgets in the world and a very close relationship with the world's most powerful entity (the United States). Is Latvia more powerful than Russia too, simply because they're a member of the EU?

The idea that just being part of the EU would make every member of the EU more 'powerful' than us is hyperbole, and I think leaving is a shit decision.
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In the sense of having a powerful negotiating bloc working on their behalf, not as a military power.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
In the sense of having a powerful negotiating bloc working on their behalf, not as a military power.
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They're a tiny part of that bloc though, and that bloc doesn't always necessarily work in their interests so it isn't as if they actually wield that much power as an individual entity.

The UK will still wield far more power than the likes of Latvia in pretty much every sense, no country is suddenly going to take Latvia more seriously.
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
They're a tiny part of that bloc though, and that bloc doesn't always necessarily work in their interests so it isn't as if they actually wield that much power as an individual entity.

The UK will still wield far more power than the likes of Latvia in pretty much every sense, no country is suddenly going to take Latvia more seriously.
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Sure give it a few years post-brexit :smirk:
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
Churchill valued having a strong, united Europe as a buffer against the USSR but he never actually wanted us to be a part of that Europe, writing that 'We are with Europe, but not of it'.
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This.

It's funny, I've seen memes with his face and quotes used by both sides of the Brexit debate.

As you say, he was a proponent of European unity in order to counter the new threat from the east, but where Britain was concerned he was always a nationalist and said explicitly that Britain wasn't a natural part of a united Europe.
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
They're a tiny part of that bloc though, and that bloc doesn't always necessarily work in their interests so it isn't as if they actually wield that much power as an individual entity.

The UK will still wield far more power than the likes of Latvia in pretty much every sense, no country is suddenly going to take Latvia more seriously.
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Not in a trade negotiation, it isn't. Latvia has the whole of the EU negotiating for it and gives access to the whole EU, the Uk will be alone and gives access to only itself. Latvia has experienced EU negotiators, the UK have inexperienced negotiators who apparently are not very good.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Not in a trade negotiation, it isn't. Latvia has the whole of the EU negotiating for it and gives access to the whole EU, the Uk will be alone and gives access to only itself. Latvia has experienced EU negotiators, the UK have inexperienced negotiators who apparently are not very good.
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That's not all there is to power though. Just because they have some supposedly better negotiators in trade deals doesn't make them more powerful/influential than the UK.

It doesn't really matter though, I get the point you were trying to make and you're absolutely right that leaving the EU would make the UK significantly less influential. Being a key member of one of the worlds biggest trading blocs naturally gives us more influence, it's a no brainer.
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
This.

It's funny, I've seen memes with his face and quotes used by both sides of the Brexit debate.

As you say, he was a proponent of European unity in order to counter the new threat from the east, but where Britain was concerned he was always a nationalist and said explicitly that Britain wasn't a natural part of a united Europe.
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Not that how Churchill viewed a United Europe is even relevant to our current situation. He faced completely different threats and issues to the current nation, and also led a completely different country .. we've changed massively since his day.

It's like taking Horatio Nelson's views on France with any seriousness in 2018. But I guess if you name drop one of our greatest historical figures it lends weight to your argument or something.
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
That's not all there is to power though. Just because they have some supposedly better negotiators in trade deals doesn't make them more powerful/influential than the UK.

It doesn't really matter though, I get the point you were trying to make and you're absolutely right that leaving the EU would make the UK significantly less influential. Being a key member of one of the worlds biggest trading blocs naturally gives us more influence, it's a no brainer.
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I wouldn’t bother with him, just seems to think no country can function with out the EU membership. Suddenly the EU controls everything that happens in Europe, it’s quite funny how some people think this.
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
That's not all there is to power though. Just because they have some supposedly better negotiators in trade deals doesn't make them more powerful/influential than the UK.

It doesn't really matter though, I get the point you were trying to make and you're absolutely right that leaving the EU would make the UK significantly less influential. Being a key member of one of the worlds biggest trading blocs naturally gives us more influence, it's a no brainer.
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It's like the Churchill quote, we're no longer living in the 1940s and 1950s , the world has changed and the UK seem to want to go backwards hoping to regain their past glories. The Uk is a major nation in the world but are in the process of diminishing their importance.
 
That being said, I like Lammy and it's a very good speech.

He's also one of those rare British politicians who actually seems to give a feck about the lives of actual people, rather than just having vague ideas about the economy, immigration or whatever. Most politicians you get the feeling see people as statistics they can use in debates, but Lammy actually views 'the people' as individuals. He's very likeable.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It's like the Churchill quote, we're no longer living in the 1940s and 1950s , the world has changed and the UK seem to want to go backwards hoping to regain their past glories. The Uk is a major nation in the world but are in the process of diminishing their importance.
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Even in Churchill's day our importance was diminishing by the day, we were basically a sideshow of the US/USSR negotiations and it was becoming more and more obvious we couldn't actually manage our Empire any longer.

I think we're a tremendous nation with an incredible history, but the fact is that whilst we punch well above our weight we're pretty small in the grand scheme of things, certainly compared to the likes of China, the US or India. They just have access to far larger pools of labour/resources than we do, and it's not like we can go colonising anymore to fix that!
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
Not that how Churchill viewed a United Europe is even relevant to our current situation. He faced completely different threats and issues to the current nation, and also led a completely different country .. we've changed massively since his day.

It's like taking Horatio Nelson's views on France with any seriousness in 2018. But I guess if you name drop one of our greatest historical figures it lends weight to your argument or something.
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Indeed, the challenges and threats were completely different - and not forgetting of course that in Churchill's time Britain's imperial influence was much stronger. I agree that our power was waining with the rise of the US and Russia, and it may have been near the sunset for the British Empire but our global influence was still much stronger than it is now. In some senses, Britain didn't need to be part of a more unified Europe at that time.
 
SquishyMcSquish said:
In what sense would Latvia be 'more powerful' than? More diplomatic weight around the world? You honestly think that just because they're a minor EU member countries worldwide would take them more seriously than the UK, a nuclear power which has one of the biggest economies and military budgets in the world and a very close relationship with the world's most powerful entity (the United States). Is Latvia more powerful than Russia too, simply because they're a member of the EU?

The idea that just being part of the EU would make every member of the EU more 'powerful' than us is hyperbole, and I think leaving is a shit decision.
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In matters where the EU negotiate as a whole, Latvia is more powerful than us
 
Priti Patel is a monster, to threaten to starve a people to try and get her way is appalling. No wonder she was so comfortable in the company of Benyamin Netenyahu.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
What do you expect them to renegotiate?

Citizens rights - no
Financial Settlement - no
Irish border - no
Backstop -no
4 freedoms - no

I don't see what could be negotiated. The fact that it's taken all this time just for May to agree to what we knew she had to agree to two years ago has delayed talks for anything else and that the new trade arrangements will not be discussed until after the UK leaves which was known all along but ignored by most politicians.

The offer is there, it's up to the UK to decide whether they fall off the cliff or not. The other choice is to cancel Brexit altogether.
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Better unicorns?
 
sun_tzu said:
So she just described the UK as an abusive partner who would go to the Xmas party and spike the drinks.... Charming...
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But if I were Norwegian I'd think exactly the same. We are an arrogant bunch who don't seem to quite believe that we no longer have an empire and hate that Johnny Foreigner no longer dances to our beat.
 
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