I fear it makes little difference now, sadly.Wow.. The most comprehensive poll yet. 20,000 people polled.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
Godly MRPWow.. The most comprehensive poll yet. 20,000 people polled.
Overall head-to-heads are predictably much closer, 50-50 between Remain and Deal, 52-48 Remain - No Deal.
I guess this tells us how we should do any potential second referendum - mirror the parliamentary election system. Decide based on constituency boundaries, plurality winner between Remain, Deal and No Deal. Whichever wins that constituency, the constituency MP has to vote that way in parliament. If Tories complain - they're fine with it for deciding the legislature, what's so wrong with it for a multi-choice referendum? Promotes accountability, is a demonstration of the sovereignty of parliament, and stops their poor constituents getting confused by having to rank more than one outcome, as they argued they would during the AV referendum. Sorted.
She clings on only because her legacy would be one of total incompetence otherwise. A total failure as Home Secretary and even worse as Prime minister she persists in the hopes something will arrive that will put a gloss on her obituary
Money was spent in those places. One thing you can say for EU spending is that because politics does not come into it, there's no votes to be won, its distributed dispassionately to the places of most need. Just yesterday it was reported that spending by the UK government has fallen in the North and risen in the South East since 2010. The North don't vote Tory so they don't care
Well, that's exactly my point, i.e. the UK's voting record was in the context of the UK being a member of the EU, which to an extent bought into the EU's vision. Whatever the UK chose to do, surely, was influenced by being a EU member? I am claiming that outside of the EU, the UK's behaviour will not be like whilst it was in. I think that it will actually diverge from the EU and be more like the US. Obviously, this is supposition on my part, but there is some supporting evidence, including how certain parts of the US welcome hardcore Brexiteers.
Yes but i can distribute other peoples mone just as easily. What was the money spent on?
Perhaps they should get Boris and blair on to debate no deal and remain... With a half hour segment each to talk about how useless mays plan and corbyns lack of plan is
I don't trust you, but I trust the EU, because again there is no votes in it. They have their rules and formulas to follow that make it dispassionate
Where was it spent? Read this link
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/may/31/what-has-the-eu-ever-done-for-my-town
Wow.. The most comprehensive poll yet. 20,000 people polled.
That's not the most representative poll though. 2 are effectively leave options, one is remain. Remain is always going to win that. For a more accurate picture, Remain vs Leave should be totalled up, then No deal vs Deal totalled up.
In a random chat today I asked if my company, which has a London office, had any plans for Brexit.
My manager's reply was, do the UK have any plans for Brexit?
My manager's reply was, do the UK have any plans for Brexit?
I'm getting the horrible feeling that the more Labour have started to talk about effectively blocking brexit the more are starting to lean towards supporting May.
They won't want another referendum or a general election and the no deal option is stripped away. If they believe the fallacy of renegotiation it should be encouraged
They won't want another referendum or a general election and the no deal option is stripped away. If they believe the fallacy of renegotiation it should be encouraged
Godly MRP
Overall head-to-heads are predictably much closer, 50-50 between Remain and Deal, 52-48 Remain - No Deal.
I guess this tells us how we should do any potential second referendum - mirror the parliamentary election system. Decide based on constituency boundaries, plurality winner between Remain, Deal and No Deal. Whichever wins that constituency, the constituency MP has to vote that way in parliament. If Tories complain - they're fine with it for deciding the legislature, what's so wrong with it for a multi-choice referendum? Promotes accountability, is a demonstration of the sovereignty of parliament, and stops their poor constituents getting confused by having to rank more than one outcome, as they argued they would during the AV referendum. Sorted.
I don't have the time or the inclination to do this, but: There's a real wide spread of numbers around the 2nd ref, approval of the deal, acceptance of no deal, etc from different pollsters. Does anyone have demographic breakdowns to see where this difference is coming from? Is it a sampling issue? Are they using different weights?
The map above genuinely suggests a louder assertive Lib Dem party should sweep any election, but it's stubbornly immobile in GE polling.
The Guardian which i think were the ones to pick it up even downplayed its significance. It's a misleading graphic of course if you split one half of a 50/50 vote in half the remaining 50 will win. What else could the result be
Trust who you like, read up their misspends and bad decisions.
Yup you're right, brain freeze from me.
You're both right of course, and that's why if you read the whole report it actually goes into detail about how different voting systems would result in different head-to-head results, even analysing them at the constituency level - I put the toplines in my previous post.
But it's also slightly missing the point to just say "oh well they've split up the two leave options, of course remain would win that", because it fails to mention that leaving with no deal and leaving with May's deal are entirely different and separate visions in their own right, about as far apart from each other as May's deal is from Remain. The reason our governance is currently in a mild state of collapse is that a rightwing government, something that can basically hold its nose and compromise with itself on any other issue, can't corral its members into agreeing to one or the other. One group wants to become a low tax, low regulation economy, the other wants to try and emulate as much of the EU as they can in the deal to minimise the damage. Rees-Mogg and his like did not get into this just to slow down immigration a little and stop sending MEPs to Brussels, those are just handy devices to whip people up. I think there are probably a number of them that would rather remain and be able to dine off their outrage at Brexit being stolen at expensive dinner events for the rest of their careers than accept the victory in name only that May's deal provides.
So I think that remaining being the single most popular option, because it was never a choice between Leave and Remain, offers a decent insight into the most logical way out of the mess.
But it's also slightly missing the point to just say "oh well they've split up the two leave options, of course remain would win that", because it fails to mention that leaving with no deal and leaving with May's deal are entirely different and separate visions in their own right, about as far apart from each other as May's deal is from Remain. The reason our governance is currently in a mild state of collapse is that a rightwing government, something that can basically hold its nose and compromise with itself on any other issue, can't corral its members into agreeing to one or the other. One group wants to become a low tax, low regulation economy, the other wants to try and emulate as much of the EU as they can in the deal to minimise the damage. Rees-Mogg and his like did not get into this just to slow down immigration a little and stop sending MEPs to Brussels, those are just handy devices to whip people up. I think there are probably a number of them that would rather remain and be able to dine off their outrage at Brexit being stolen at expensive dinner events for the rest of their careers than accept the victory in name only that May's deal provides.
So I think that remaining being the single most popular option, because it was never a choice between Leave and Remain, offers a decent insight into the most logical way out of the mess.
There is an aspect that i find really disturbing for an advanced people like you:
- Apparently many brexiters have a colossal and imature ethnic delusion about the role they think the United States will play in your future.
Folks, the fact Donald Trump posted something good about brexit in the twitter, or that american right wing trolls channels are excited with the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, doesn't mean the american economic stablishment will save the day.
The EU/US markets are very similar in potential and you are not going to get a better deal that what you had in the EU. And you have to beat Americans, Korea, Singapure, Canada, Japan, Germany, etc in the US market. And no, its not the same as the competition inside the EU for a lot of reasons. For instance you would need to strip your workers of their rights to be competitive or build global brands that the americans will buy even when more expensives because its a symbol of status. Like the germans do. The most probable scenario is your companies moving to Canada or north of Mexico if you sign a trade deal with the US.
- Apparently many brexiters have a colossal and imature ethnic delusion about the role they think the United States will play in your future.
Folks, the fact Donald Trump posted something good about brexit in the twitter, or that american right wing trolls channels are excited with the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, doesn't mean the american economic stablishment will save the day.
The EU/US markets are very similar in potential and you are not going to get a better deal that what you had in the EU. And you have to beat Americans, Korea, Singapure, Canada, Japan, Germany, etc in the US market. And no, its not the same as the competition inside the EU for a lot of reasons. For instance you would need to strip your workers of their rights to be competitive or build global brands that the americans will buy even when more expensives because its a symbol of status. Like the germans do. The most probable scenario is your companies moving to Canada or north of Mexico if you sign a trade deal with the US.
Abundantly clear the country's infrastructure isn't ready for any kind of brexit, never mind a no deal.
Agreed but i don't think it revealed anything new. We already knew or expected that if it comes down to 3 options that remain would win.
I'd be delighted but shocked if we ever had such a poll as it would be a fix if we're being honest. If the point of a people's vote is to check they still want to leave then this method doesn't do that and it would rightly be seen as circumventing the original result.
It would however had made perfect sense as a first vote. Just imagine if we'd had the foresight to say up front we'd have two votes with the second on the final options
Have to say ukpolitics on Reddit did a decent discussion on leavers explaining the benefits as they saw it. Not surprising some good arguments in there on the face of it.
My question is though, can anyone explain how leaving the EU and aligning closer to the US (assuming the most likely trade deal) is significantly better (for any factor of daily life)? Genuinely curious.
My question is though, can anyone explain how leaving the EU and aligning closer to the US (assuming the most likely trade deal) is significantly better (for any factor of daily life)? Genuinely curious.
Think the government is laying g the groundwork for a second vote.
Government sources already spinning a loss by <100 as a positive .
Government sources already spinning a loss by <100 as a positive .
Norwegian politicians reject UK's Norway Plus Brexit plan
Norwegian MP says it is not in Norway’s interest for UK to use trade agreement
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...oliticians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan
Norwegian MP says it is not in Norway’s interest for UK to use trade agreement
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...oliticians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan
technically they will need to change something in the proposal to put in before parliament again...
but yes I think a second vote is probable
not sure its likely they change enough minds (unless there is real change in the deal - which again means changing things with the EU - which also seems unlikely)
will be a lot of permutations though - internal leadership challenge (48 letters) - almost certain an immediate no confidence motion from Labour
gut feel she somehow limps on through both of those and then just before xmas she comes back for a second vote and looses
then genuinley no idea what happens next - probably a default no deal as there wont be time for anything else? - which secretly I suspect is good enough for the ERG bunch as they wait (not very) patiently for May to finally fall on her sword and get a full on lunatic brexit nut job in power
Can see the UK 4 days from another enormous mistake. Not just Brexiters but Remainers now also believing in unicorns.
Norway rules out allowing us into EFTA.
Which would be the enormous mistake?
For me the deal and no deal would be the mistakes .If the deal gets voted down then the chance of remaining increases dramatically.
The deal won't change much but what is likely to change are the circumstances. Parliament in the not too distant future will have a gun to its head.
Well yes but do you really think remain would win and if they don't then it is No Deal guaranteed. There's no chance of Norway, cherry picking or renegotiating with the EU.
The point is that the only thing better than May's deal is Remain. Everything else is worse.
If everyone's against May's deal they have to choose Remain immediately.
As does the no-deal scenario
The problem with your argument is that it is logical.
Even more the no deal I think
Afterall its the default position and to be honest i can see May going for no deal before i can see her applying to extend A50, calling a GE herself (the labour motion will surely fail) or going for a peoples vote
so yeah If its not mays deal i think the probability of no deal increases far more than that of remain - and I am sure the brexiteers have the same view which is why they are intent on voting down her deal
Thankfully it's not in Mays power to decide those options. Quite frankly she's irrelevant at the moment, she can make things smoother but that's about it.
actually thats not true... only the government can legislate for a second referendum - only the government can apply to extend (or cancel) article 50
Parliament cant force her to do any of those things
True but they will be binding motions and i doubt she wants the goverment to be held in contempt twice within weeks
It is a good point though as it's another avenue that points to a GE/leadership change. There's every chance she might refuse to carry out the action and decide to hand it over to someone else.
Including food supplies?
Mother f*ckers are trying to cause another famine. Quick, protect the potatoes!
Mother f*ckers are trying to cause another famine. Quick, protect the potatoes!
That bitch Patel is bloody repulsive with her talk every time I've seen her on TV.
Genuine cnut.