Is that with the same questions on the ballot?
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- Thread starter Silva
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Is that with the same questions on the ballot?
Fun thing from a Guardian article about Essex before the Brexit vote.
“Out on the pier, Gypsy fortune teller Rosalee offers to look into her crystal ball and pronounce on the result of the referendum.
Under a sign reading: “Your destiny is your future,” she peers deep into the glass and frowns mysteriously.
Her prediction is unlikely to give much comfort to either side: “I see big changes ahead. I see us voting to come out of Europe. But I don’t see us actually leaving.””
Maybe Rosalee is better than I’d have expected!
“Out on the pier, Gypsy fortune teller Rosalee offers to look into her crystal ball and pronounce on the result of the referendum.
Under a sign reading: “Your destiny is your future,” she peers deep into the glass and frowns mysteriously.
Her prediction is unlikely to give much comfort to either side: “I see big changes ahead. I see us voting to come out of Europe. But I don’t see us actually leaving.””
Maybe Rosalee is better than I’d have expected!
As a result of yesterday's events, they might now be persuaded to vote for May's deal - it's the only way they can be sure that Brexit actually happens and they'll hope they can harden up the deal re the future relationship once we've left and are in the transition period.
No deal, as you say, is dead and Brexiteers might prefer May's deal to Norway+ (around which Parliament might coalesce after Tuesday's vote) or risking no Brexit at all (which is probably now the default option, rather than no deal).
It wont be as bad as some are making out, but then some are making out it's the end of the UK as we know it. A lot of the post Brexit fallout is already priced into the financial markets - the pound has already taken a 20% hit. There will be a few months of turmoil and some slow growth ahead relative to our peers but in 10 years or so it will be back to normal.
What's most frustrating is that the older generation cost the younger generation a decade of their career lives by loading up on debt and causing the recession, and now they're doing it all again.
No, it assumes something more complex than a simple Leave v Remain, which is why the first two steps would generate a lot of heat.
At least Brexit has shown up the DUP for the muppets they are.
Its all been worth it just for that
Its all been worth it just for that
It sure does. My best friend is from NI and reckons NI politicians generally do not represent the view of the people. It's all about not losing face.
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It won't be back to where it would have been without Brexit. Not even close.
I think Arlene should be kicked out for how she has handled it.
It isn't as May's deal will lose in the parliamentary vote - 95% certain.
There are other options but no deal/hard Brexit isn't off the table
Can I have a lend of that crystal ball when you are finished with it - I have some lotto numbers I need to know.
Not completely, but close. Parliament can just vote it down now.
No deal is 100% off the table now
How so?
The opposition claiming they would do things better is the number one rule of politics. For reality to catch up with that claim Labour would need to win an election and even if that should happen, they could probably still blame May, saying they would negotiate better deal, but there is not enough time now or something along those lines and regardless of that they would have achieved their goal (got and won an election) and by the time the next one is around no one would care anymore.
Will never happen.
This guarantees a toxic election in NI next time round. They've lost a lot of face with this so will be using their usual misdirection tactics of shouting YOU ONLY WANT TO BREAK UP THE UNION! ever time an important question they can't answer is asked.
Britain is just lucky they have Labour on the other side since DUP can't simply deadlock everything to get what they want.
With Grieve's amendment parliament has "taken back control" so they dictate what happens when the PM's deal is voted down.
There is no majority for no deal, even ERG aren't stupid enough to support it in reality as the coutry would be brought to its knees.
Wait, I thought he was a dictator who was refusing to listen to the membership on Brexit? Can hardly keep up.
I think it took parliament 6months to push through the legislation for a referendum last time. Obviously thigs could be sped up, but realistically i dont see us being able to hold a referendum before 31st March 19, which means we either need to rescind A50 or ....?
I think so and this could strengthen May's hand. She'll still lose, but maybe not so heavily that she herself falls. There's an EU (fall-back) summit on the 13th and 14th. You could see her go there and get a few addenda then call a 2nd vote on that.
I actually think that was the strategy from the off.
Surely if parliament doesn't pass May's deal then no deal is firmly still on the table?
I wouldnt be so sure - lots of rumblings about Arlene not being popular at all within the DUP and that she will take the fall for all of this.
Not anymore - parliament will not vote for a no deal so it's totally gone as an option - thankfully.
Yesterday made No deal extremely unlikely. Parliament could easily force the revoking of A50.
Incidentally, it makes May's deal more likely with at least a second attempt. For the first time, it looks like No Brexit is a genuine possibility.
I agree that 29 March is unrealistic. I also doubt there is a majority in parliament with the balls to just revoke Art 50. So a request to the EU to postpone the effective date of Art 50 while the referendum process is completed would seem to be the more likely (even though anything more than a short delay causes problems for the European elections).
Huh? So what happens when they vote against May's deal?
So May's deal or revoke A50 as options?
Not necessarily but it's a credible threat May can give her backbenchers.
Exactly - the fact the debate is now framed almost exclusively around disagreements as to just “how bad it will be” tells you all you need to know about the absurdity of Brexit.
Hard to know for sure but the only way I can see a deal getting through the commons now if the current deal fails is an even softer brexit to get Labour onside. It will be very interesting to see what happens.
That's not what I'm saying. We will lose a few years of growth but once the country has adapted the growth rates will recover. The UK is not going to go into some permanent slide because it's not in the EU anymore.
No, technically all options are on the table because parliament can move forward motions for the next steps and it will require a majority for them to pass.
The reason why we say no deal is off the table its because there is nowhere near any support that nears a majority in the house of commons for it. As I said not even the ERG would vote for it under real world circumstances, they are saving face pushing and voting for it knowing that they will never be brought to task.
So the options we have moving forward which a majority would support is either Norway which is in effect EU membership without a say in it, or just give it back to the people for a final say or revoke article 50 and remain. The latter will probably be the course taken but with a consultation from the people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46451970
Full legal text released. If Grieve handed May a lifeline yesterday this could cause it to break.
There'll be all manner of minutiae in there for the DUP (who absolutely love minutiae) to rage over.
Full legal text released. If Grieve handed May a lifeline yesterday this could cause it to break.
There'll be all manner of minutiae in there for the DUP (who absolutely love minutiae) to rage over.
If May's deal gets voted down, no deal is almost a certainty.
You can't get softer without actually being in the EU. They're never going to resolve the Irish border.
Also worth noting that May set the Brexit date into law. Will need political majority to unravel that.
Remaining still seems very unlikely.
The Uk are sleepwalking to catastrophe.
They think that voting down May's deal is going to get them a better deal. May is right there are only 3 choices - revoking article 50, May's Deal and No deal.
If May's deal gets voted down on 11th December, on the 12th they had better revoke A50 or strap in and hold on tight.
I don’t believe that. Parliament will find a preferred solution now they have the power.
Not with Grieve's amendment which basically means that Parliament (not government) will be the arbiters of what happens next and there is a massive majority across Parliament against a no deal exit.
If no alternative deal is found legally we leave on the 29th with no deal. But as I said Parliament will almost certainly intervene. Stopping it will require a change in the law.