Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Watching May in front of the liaison committee and Bernard Jenkin MP calls the chancellor's forecast propaganda.

The chancellory is being led by his own party... Do these people have no shame whatsoever? These people are jokes that would make Trump proud.

It highlights the fact that, if we do have a second referendum, the Remain side will have to do more than rely on economic arguments. Jenkin and his ilk will lie shamelessly again about Project Fear and claim they could get a better deal than the closet remainer “Treason May”.
 
The Labour amendment to block a no deal very much looks like a people's vote in the making.
 
For those with capital.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...00bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit

And so it begins. Ah well, guess we didn't want that business anyway..

There goes "Project fear again"...

I can't believe there are people out there who think that 1/3 or 30% being wiped off of the value of UK families assets/homes is a good thing "Oh more people can afford houses then" :wenger: No you fecking morons it means that those people who have houses now and are struggling to keep them are going to lose them and when the interest rates have to go up it also means that an even larger proportion of people won't be able to afford to buy them.

Also, this "Project fear" BS excuse of an argument is so hypocritical as well. I take exception to the term being used for anyone but those campaiging for Brexit because it was the Brexiteers like UKIP that used complete fiction lies and FUD to influence their cretins and fanned the flames of ignorance with it.

It was not project fear it was Project FACT you fecks.
 
Because they have a direct impact over what happens. They control interest rates, they are responsible for keeping inflation on target and they have an arsenal of levers and buttons at their disposal in order to make that happen. In other words, whatever they say directly impacts the economy. I can’t remember the BoE warning about a possible recession before, but it’s normally a good way to get people to be more cautious with their spending which sets the wheels running even quicker.
 
Because they have a direct impact over what happens. They control interest rates, they are responsible for keeping inflation on target and they have an arsenal of levers and buttons at their disposal in order to make that happen. In other words, whatever they say directly impacts the economy. I can’t remember the BoE warning about a possible recession before, but it’s normally a good way to get people to be more cautious with their spending which sets the wheels running even quicker.

Under ordinary circumstances, I agree with you but this is far from ordinary - the first time a major advanced economy has tried to extricate itself from a single market trading bloc and reverse 45 years of convergence. The BoE is right to inform the population of the likely consequences of the choices before parliament. As for becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, business investment has already fallen sharply due to uncertainty and, as for consumers, Remainers feared the worst anyway while I imagine many Leavers will just dismiss it as propaganda.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...00bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit

And so it begins. Ah well, guess we didn't want that business anyway.

I was working on a project with one the major banks a few months ago to relocate thousands of their employees to Europe and route their trades, billions of dollars worth per day, to the new location. A number of others i know have leased offices in Europe as a just in case.

800bn sounds like a lot to the public buts its a drop in the ocean in that world. Brexit will hit hard but ultimately the English language will protect London.
 
Under ordinary circumstances, I agree with you but this is far from ordinary - the first time a major advanced economy has tried to extricate itself from a single market trading bloc and reverse 45 years of convergence. The BoE is right to inform the population of the likely consequences of the choices before parliament. As for becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, business investment has already fallen sharply due to uncertainty and, as for consumers, Remainers feared the worst anyway while I imagine many Leavers will just dismiss it as propaganda.

Oh I don’t doubt this.

It’s obviously going to be a bad thing to leave the EU and a huge shock to the economy, I just wouldn’t expect to see the BoE shouting it from the rooftops is all :lol:
 
The Brexit modelling from the BoE are not facts and neither are the projections from a vested interest in the German banking industry.
Weird statement. Since when have economic forecasts been facts? What matters is whether or not the information helps people make better decisions.
 
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EU immigrants down 13000 from March 2018. Non-EU immigrants up 13000 from March 2018 - overall same number.

Brexiters are getting what they wanted - more immigrants from outside the EU, that's what they wanted, wasn't it?
 
Ok, not your subject. They're not saying GDP will be 4% lower in absolute terms after 15 years, they're saying it will be 4% less than it would otherwise have been. So something like an annual growth of 1.7% instead of 2.0%. Or as you reasonably put it, setting us back 4%, not 15-20%. Not welcome, but not huge either.

No need for the patronising “not your subject”.

Of course, my question was how relevant a 4% drop in GDP over 15 years is to the debate though. Obviously if it were much worse then it would be, no question about that.

Ignorantly I hadn’t read the article and went based on what you’d written. And your wording implied an actual drop of 4% per the way your post is worded. Or at least how I read it. And given some of the ther figures being branded around yesterday it seemed possible :lol:

Not to worry though, my error. Yeah in this context, it’s meaningless not because it’s not a lot of money (every decimal is huge when talking about GDP) but it’s so easy to spin it in a positive light to the public. Someone can just say hey look our economy grew by x% hence Brexit was a success. If someone says no it wasn’t cause if it hadn’t happened it might have been more, It’s easy to see who wold sway lesser informed people.
 
Weird statement. Since when have economic forecasts been facts? What matters is whether or not the information helps people make better decisions.

It wasn't a forecast.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ning-recession-financial-crisis-a8656561.html

The Bank stressed that it was modelling the scenario to be sure that the UK banking sector was resilient enough to withstand such an economic crisis, rather than making a forecast of what was likely to happen.

What's making the headlines is the absolute worst case scenario modelling because its sexy stuff.

 
Prime Minister Theresa May has accepted the BBC's offer to take part in a debate on Brexit on Sunday 9 December, two days before MPs vote on her deal.

But Labour sources say the party has not yet agreed to take part, with Jeremy Corbyn telling This Morning he preferred ITV's offer.

The BBC said it was "delighted" Mrs May had accepted the offer.

It added it would be discussing debate formats with both parties and would announce further details soon.

Mr Corbyn claimed he preferred ITV's bid out of "respect" for viewers who wanted to watch the I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here! final on ITV the same evening - 9 December.

"I want to watch it myself," he said.

When approached by the BBC, ITV confirmed the final of the show would air at 21:00 GMT.

It is understood the BBC debate programme would start at 20:00 in Birmingham, airing after Strictly Come Dancing and replacing David Attenborough's Dynasties on BBC One.

BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith said Mrs May had accepted this offer "because there was a view on the government's side that the BBC would address the crux of the issue, namely the deal".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46386737
 
Is he taking the piss?

He knows we live in a country full of morons who would rather watch a few has beens rather than get informed on the biggest threat to this countrys stability since WW2. He knows he won't be able to get his message across if no one tunes in so he's absolutely right to not want the debate to clash with a popular TV programme among the sheep!
 
Debates are always rubbish but the BBC debate sounds like a awful clusterfeck



The head-to-head would feature a 12-strong panel of “prominent” campaigners, potentially backbench politicians, business and sports figures rather than frontline political figures, who will ask questions directly to the leaders. The panel members will be picked for their position as vocal Brexiteers and Remainers.
 
Will the BBC have a Kremlin backdrop behind Corbyn again?
 
723.png


EU immigrants down 13000 from March 2018. Non-EU immigrants up 13000 from March 2018 - overall same number.

Brexiters are getting what they wanted - more immigrants from outside the EU, that's what they wanted, wasn't it?

Fabulous! Foreigners, but different foreigners! Exactly what the Brexiteers were after right from the start. Over the moon they'll be.
 
This poll is confusing but strongly indicates that a second referendum would be no panacea.

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May's deal+No deal strongly outnumber Remain.

http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/steve-fisher-condorcet

By looking at proportions of voters in the 1st poll, you can conclude that don't know/won't vote are breaking *against* remain which would be expected at 45% if the trends from the left hand side poll held.
 
Debates are always rubbish but the BBC debate sounds like a awful clusterfeck



It's no surprise the goverment has gone for the BBC as they know they'll skew it in the goverments favour.

She'll get to see the questions before hand and it'll just be the same old spun lies.
 
Debates are always rubbish but the BBC debate sounds like a awful clusterfeck


Christ how demeaning would it be for Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, to ask Jeremy Corbyn a question from the audience. Feck the BBC.
 
Could they invite a pro-Remain QC to the panel? It might be the only way to get May to answer a question rather than robotically repeating platitudes.
 
  • Justine Greening, the Conservative former education secretary and a supporter of a second referendum on Brexit, has said that there is time to organise one to take place on 30 May. Speaking at a People’s Vote event she said:
I’ve worked out that you could plan and hold a referendum in 22 weeks. We could actually, after this vote on December 11, hold a referendum, potentially, on May 30 next year. We could, alongside that, choose to extend article 50, I’ve suggested, by four months to July 29.


Hello, in the EU we are voting for a new European parliament between the 23rd and 26th May. The UK will have no seats. Which planet are you on?
 
Can someone give me the very simple basics of what is happening right now? A deal is being negotiated? How are negotiations going?

There are two separate things-

1. The withdrawal agreement, which sets out interim measures for the period between the UK leaving in March 2019 and the UK-EU agreeing an agreement on their future relationship. This has been agreed between May and the EU but may not get through parliament. If it does not get through parliament (even on a second reading maybe), then we are in crisis mode - general election, second referendum...The EU is unlikely to renegotiate this agreement and, in the absence of an agreement to extend the 29 March leaving date (to which the EU would probably agree to only if there was a 2nd referendum on the table), we crash out on 29 March and all hell breaks loose.

2. The longer-term agreement on the future relationship - this will not be discussed until and unless the withdrawal agreement is signed (the latter includes 7 pages of waffle about the parties’ intentions).

In short - it’s a total mess. Thanks, David Cameron.
 
Can someone give me the very simple basics of what is happening right now? A deal is being negotiated? How are negotiations going?
According to May and the EU negotiations are over. Some people think the EU will reopen negotiations if we ask them nicely, after parliament votes against May, or after a general election perhaps, others think the EU will not re-negotiate at all, or will not agree substantial changes at any rate. If the latter are right some people think the Act of Withdrawal obliges us to to leave the EU with no deal, whilst others think we should tell the EU we've changed our mind and want to stay, and if we ask to stay some people think the EU will say too late we've agreed you're going, others think they'll say ok mates carry on as you were, while still others think they'll say if you want to stay you'll have to accept new conditions, like joining the Euro and Schengen. I wouldn't waste too much time working it out yet though, because in December you can watch May and Corbyn explain it all on telly, unless you want to watch I'm a Celebrity instead. Which might not be a bad idea when I think about it.