Embarrassing conduct from the government trying to say it shouldn't be discussed because they have no intention in using it. They're not supreme to parlaiment, May seems to think she's a dictator
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- Thread starter Silva
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Embarrassing conduct from the government trying to say it shouldn't be discussed because they have no intention in using it. They're not supreme to parlaiment, May seems to think she's a dictator
Which party is going to swallow the political cost cancelling brexit?
Not a single one, hence they will hand it back into people hands again if the May’s deal falls through.
And now they're refusing to release the legal advice in full despite a commons vote saying they have to do so. State of this goverment
The first time a Chancellor is supporting a policy which he openly admits will harm the economy?
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-uk-worse-off-brexit-scenarios-philip-hammond
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-uk-worse-off-brexit-scenarios-philip-hammond
It says that we can't legally get out of the backstop on our own. But everyone knows that.
The only reason I can think of them not releasing the text is that they think it can be changed or tweaked and don't want to scupper any chances of being able to do so.
What I mean is that May probably knows she'll lose this vote but hopes that it is close enough to be able to force another. She may be relying on the negative market reaction and the ability to get an addendum to the deal for the 2nd presentation.
If she is slaughtered by a landslide all that goes out the window.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind.
In case you are bored, here is the Treasury’s long-term economic analysis of Brexit. In summary - every scenario is involves a decline relative to our current position and every scenario is even worse if immigration from the EEA is stopped.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ber_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ber_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf
This doesn't even model the deal that May has actually agreed with the EU. The "Best outcome" in the Analysis is the Chequers deal which was an incredibly idealized fantasy and utterly torn to pieces months ago.
The small print also says this is based on the assumption that the UK will get to rollover all of the Free Trade Deals that the EU currently has with various countries as well as signing our own new ones with the rest.
So they couldn't even spin this optimized fantasy analysis to look in any way positive for the economy...
Why does Corbyn have to do anything else other than sit back and let the Tories destroy themselves?
"More closely".
She has a way with words.
She has a way with words.
You can't ask people to vote for you to solve an issue, when you're not coming up with anything meaningful.
When are people voting for something?
He says he wants a GE.
Well then if one is called presumably he'll come out with some concrete policies.
So a second referendum it is then.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/m...hash=B5F6EDCDF90DCC10286FC0BC599D94CAB8735DFB
Bank of England publishes the benefits of Brexit, well impact assessment.
Bank of England publishes the benefits of Brexit, well impact assessment.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46377309
BoE say no deal Brexit would bring a recession worse than the financial crisis.
BoE say no deal Brexit would bring a recession worse than the financial crisis.
This'll matter not a shit to brexiteers, they'll say it's all fake news.
Referendum next May?
This must be Corbyn's cunning plan to hold a referendum two months after the UK have left the EU.
There's definitely something in the water in the UK.
Question for anyone who understands financials more than me:
In the case of a no deal brexit would it be wise to transfer a lump sum of cash from a U.K bank account to a European one prior to March 29th? Following on from this, would it make sense to then transfer it back to the U.K account after the pound reaches its nadir and use that money to buy a cut price house within the U.K after the inevitable recession? Any caveats or pit falls to this plan?
In the case of a no deal brexit would it be wise to transfer a lump sum of cash from a U.K bank account to a European one prior to March 29th? Following on from this, would it make sense to then transfer it back to the U.K account after the pound reaches its nadir and use that money to buy a cut price house within the U.K after the inevitable recession? Any caveats or pit falls to this plan?
So it doesn't cover the actual current proposal or any comparison to no brexit scenario?
This continued behaviour of trying to con the public is going to lead to even more disenfranchisement.
There are many possible pitfalls.
Just a few as an example.
When do you know for certain that it is a no deal - as soon as you do know, the markets would have reacted.
Will you as UK citizen have problems with having access to your money in Europe.
When do you know when the nadir has been reached.
If you buy the house in the UK will the price fall even further after you've bought it.
There's loads more.
It's a gamble.
The best case scenario is based on Chequers, which is clearly meaningless by this point. @vodrake pointed out that there is also an assumption hidden in the footnotes that the UK’s current WTO deals made as part of the EU would be rolled over. So it’s not based on reality and even then it makes grim reading.
Thanks for taking the time.
Regarding your first point, I guess would proactively transfer the money though this would carry the risk of losing some money if a soft brexit goes ahead.
I’m a dual national so access shouldn’t be a problem.
I would assume the nadir would be reached fairly quickly post Brexit due to market instability, investment fears etc before it starts to rebound?
I plan to reside in the U.K for the long term so even if house prices plummet further after I purchase, surely in a decade or two they would pick up (barring a mad max armaeddon scenario).
But nevertheless, even taking into account my answers above you would consider it a large risk?
Strange as it may seem, if the UK suddenly decided to cancel Brexit or remain basically as they are, the pound could actually improve if certainty returned to the markets.
Depending on how bad it got in the UK, it could continue to fall for some time.
Three years ago who would have thought it would get this low and the UK haven't left yet.
Yes eventually no matter how bad it got the prices would improve.
Also pretty sure there'll be some capital controls in case of no deal.
I've already moved most of my £ domiciled investments.
Saw this comment in the comments section of the Guardian, made me chuckle.
"Project fear on steroids again. The pound is overvalued anyway and the inflation effect will wash through in a year."
The pound was overvalued at €1.42/£1 three years ago. Now its overvalued at under €1.13/£1 .
I'd like to know the rate Brexiters actually consider to be the correct one.
"Project fear on steroids again. The pound is overvalued anyway and the inflation effect will wash through in a year."
The pound was overvalued at €1.42/£1 three years ago. Now its overvalued at under €1.13/£1 .
I'd like to know the rate Brexiters actually consider to be the correct one.
Yes, agreed, there are many things I'm thinking of, none of them good.
What are the Bank of England, who presumably have at least a few people who know a bit about economics, doing scaremongering about a possible recession? Isn’t that pretty much the last thing you’re supposed to do?
As Paul says, sterling was much stronger a few years ago. If you "proactively" transfer your funds and then Brexit gets cancelled, you risk getting hammered.
Hang on though, it said on BBC news that the BoE said it ‘wasn’t a forecast’ and was ‘worst case scenario’ and it’s already been criticised by credible economists.
I can remember when interest rates were 18%, cant remember who the pm was tho.
Remember them at 17%.
Bought my first property in 1977 and interest rate was 14% and the PM was Callaghan
Your basically talking currency speculation and there are millions of people around the world already trying to get their head round the same thing on Brexit. There is a lot of money to be made if you guess the right way and a lot to lose if you don't.
The crux is this, if it was a sure thing that the the pound is going to weaken on the 29th of March due to a no deal Brexit, the pound would already be at 0.80 to the euro. It isn't there because the market movers, those that effectively set the price, who are a hell of a lot better at speculation that you or I, they don't think with any amount of confidence that is going to happen.
At the moment the exchange rates are stuck in the middle ground of the potential outcomes, which now seem to be down to 3: May's deal (pound strengthens), No Brexit/2nd Ref (pound strengthens lots), No Deal (pound crashes).
If you did what your suggesting, you'd be hoping for just one of those outcomes, a no deal which our leaders should be doing everything possible to avoid. It is still an unlikely outcome so I'd be very wary of putting a bet on it. All comes down to your risk appetite and what you can afford to lose. If you enjoy a flutter then sure go for it, just keep some eggs at home. Or head to the casino right now and put it all on red.
I'm having conversations every day at work on how much of our foreign imports we should cover off in forward currency deals and the answer for us is just to avoid the worse case scenario. We will miss out on some potentially large upsides if Brexit gets cancelled, but we will avoid significant consequences in the event of a no-deal, that's the most important bit for us.
Do you still think Brexit is a good idea?