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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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I heard Kuenssberg on the news then talking about the economic forecast and how dreadful it is.

I don’t know if she was quoting someone or if it was her own observations but she finished it with “but Brexit has always been about something more than economics”.

What the feck does that actually mean. The “more than just economics” were always masqued as “with sovereign control we can be prosperous”.

Well that’s absolutely bullshit as we have just found out, so what remains of the “more than just economics” claim?

It boils down to “keeping brown people out of this country” doesn’t it?

feck this disgusting era of fascist wankers we have found ourselves living in.
 
The Brexit economics and investment advice is interesting for me. I’ve been trying to figure out what to do for ages... went full cash a couple of months ago as the FTSE seemed to be in free fall, but cash is just a guaranteed loss anyway - especially when the pound drops.

Decided to try to hedge my bets and stuck some into gold & other mining sectors today, plus a few American stocks. still got about 50% in cash though, which I wouldn’t mind moving a bit more of.
 
Pexbo said:
I heard Kuenssberg on the news then talking about the economic forecast and how dreadful it is.

I don’t know if she was quoting someone or if it was her own observations but she finished it with “but Brexit has always been about something more than economics”.

What the feck does that actually mean. The “more than just economics” were always masqued as “with sovereign control we can be prosperous”.

Well that’s absolutely bullshit as we have just found out, so what remains of the “more than just economics” claim?

It boils down to “keeping brown people out of this country” doesn’t it?

feck this disgusting era of fascist wankers we have found ourselves living in.
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Laura Kuenssberg is right in that Brexit is not an argument of economic pros and cons, rather it’s an inchoate cry of nationalist, small town anger. If it gets to a second referendum, most leavers will still vote leave and Remain will only win by virtue of mortality rates over the last 2.5 years and, assuming it is allowed, giving UK citizens living in the EU a vote.
 
Pexbo said:
I heard Kuenssberg on the news then talking about the economic forecast and how dreadful it is.

I don’t know if she was quoting someone or if it was her own observations but she finished it with “but Brexit has always been about something more than economics”.

What the feck does that actually mean. The “more than just economics” were always masqued as “with sovereign control we can be prosperous”.

Well that’s absolutely bullshit as we have just found out, so what remains of the “more than just economics” claim?

It boils down to “keeping brown people out of this country” doesn’t it?

feck this disgusting era of fascist wankers we have found ourselves living in.
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No.
 
Stanley Road said:
Good feckin lord
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Sweet Square said:
No.
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Take all economic arguments (and its clearly in the Brexiteer’s favour to do that now) out of the discussion and what are you actually left with?

If the country is going to be less prosperous and likely suffer a recession with an extremely tough battle to get out of said recession, what’s it actually all for?

I’m open to any suggestions but I can’t see past racism and xenophobia.
 
Walrus said:
The Brexit economics and investment advice is interesting for me. I’ve been trying to figure out what to do for ages... went full cash a couple of months ago as the FTSE seemed to be in free fall, but cash is just a guaranteed loss anyway - especially when the pound drops.

Decided to try to hedge my bets and stuck some into gold & other mining sectors today, plus a few American stocks. still got about 50% in cash though, which I wouldn’t mind moving a bit more of.
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I don't think you've done anything wrong there at all, I moved some in to cash because I didn't have the bollocks to go 50% or more as you have. I'm hoping now there'll be a rebound if a soft brexit happens, or at least if the pound tanks then foreign and even the FTSE should rise. Would have been better to move to cash first though!
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Hang on though, it said on BBC news that the BoE said it ‘wasn’t a forecast’ and was ‘worst case scenario’ and it’s already been criticised by credible economists.
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Watching Newsnight the forecasts they've chosen are for May's deal GDP to be 4% less after 15 years, which isn't much at all, well less than the margin for error I'd have thought, and for No Deal a more worrying 8% less after 15 years. Picturing this sort of thing was enough to make me vote Remain, but for hardened Leavers it's a bit meh, really.
 
711 said:
Watching Newsnight the forecasts they've chosen are for May's deal GDP to be 4% less after 15 years, which isn't much at all, well less than the margin for error I'd have thought, and for No Deal a more worrying 8% less after 15 years. Picturing this sort of thing was enough to make me vote Remain, but for hardened Leavers it's a bit meh, really.
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Leavers just dub anything negative as project fear. A blind faith that brexit is good. Nothing anyone can say will ever change that, except when the if’s crystallise and people know for a fact. But of course by then there will be another 10 things to blame.
 
rpitroda said:
Leavers just dub anything negative as project fear. A blind faith that brexit is good. Nothing anyone can say will ever change that, except when the if’s crystallise and people know for a fact. But of course by then there will be another 10 things to blame.
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Of course, my question was how relevant a 4% drop in GDP over 15 years is to the debate though. Obviously if it were much worse then it would be, no question about that.
 
711 said:
Of course, my question was how relevant a 4% drop in GDP over 15 years is to the debate though. Obviously if it were much worse then it would be, no question about that.
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It’s relevant because a shrinking economy over a 15 year period is a big issue. You have to remember the natural economic cycle means that a countries GDP should grow over time. A 4% shrink doesn’t sound like a lot but when you think our GDP even now is growing at say 0.5-1% a year, we are saying it’s setting us back circa 15-20% over 15 years of all things carried on as they are now. Which is a big assumption but not an outrageous one when you look at economic growth over periods exclusive of significant events such as the financial crisis.
 
rpitroda said:
It’s relevant because a shrinking economy over a 15 year period is a big issue. You have to remember the natural economic cycle means that a countries GDP should grow over time. A 4% shrink doesn’t sound like a lot but when you think our GDP even now is growing at say 0.5-1% a year, we are saying it’s setting us back circa 15-20%.
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Ok, not your subject. They're not saying GDP will be 4% lower in absolute terms after 15 years, they're saying it will be 4% less than it would otherwise have been. So something like an annual growth of 1.7% instead of 2.0%. Or as you reasonably put it, setting us back 4%, not 15-20%. Not welcome, but not huge either.
 
rpitroda said:
It’s relevant because a shrinking economy over a 15 year period is a big issue. You have to remember the natural economic cycle means that a countries GDP should grow over time. A 4% shrink doesn’t sound like a lot but when you think our GDP even now is growing at say 0.5-1% a year, we are saying it’s setting us back circa 15-20% over 15 years of all things carried on as they are now. Which is a big assumption but not an outrageous one when you look at economic growth over periods exclusive of significant events such as the financial crisis.
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The gov forecasts don't say we'll actually shrink by 4% over the 15 years, just that we'll be 4% smaller than we likely would have been had the status quo continued.

This is still a massive amount of money, of course. But 711 is right in that a percentage figure like that isn't going to sway much. It needs to be put into concrete figures, a la the "350m per week" figure Leave came up with, only with less lying involved.
 
Ubik said:
The gov forecasts don't say we'll actually shrink by 4% over the 15 years, just that we'll be 4% smaller than we likely would have been had the status quo continued.

This is still a massive amount of money, of course. But 711 is right in that a percentage figure like that isn't going to sway much. It needs to be put into concrete figures, a la the "350m per week" figure Leave came up with, only with less lying involved.
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Nice one.
 
Silva said:
A 30% drop in house prices would almost make it affordable.
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If it affects the Irish housing market similarly then I'm all aboard the Hard Brexit train.
 
711 said:
Of course, my question was how relevant a 4% drop in GDP over 15 years is to the debate though. Obviously if it were much worse then it would be, no question about that.
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rpitroda said:
It’s relevant because a shrinking economy over a 15 year period is a big issue. You have to remember the natural economic cycle means that a countries GDP should grow over time. A 4% shrink doesn’t sound like a lot but when you think our GDP even now is growing at say 0.5-1% a year, we are saying it’s setting us back circa 15-20% over 15 years of all things carried on as they are now. Which is a big assumption but not an outrageous one when you look at economic growth over periods exclusive of significant events such as the financial crisis.
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The wording is 1.9-5.5% lower growth than if we stayed in the EU under May’s deal or 3.5% - 9% lower with a hard Brexit. Correct me if I’m wrong but this means slower growth than if we stayed in the EU rather than overall GDP contraction from where we are now?
 
Classical Mechanic said:
The wording is 1.9-5.5% lower growth than if we stayed in the EU under May’s deal or 3.5% - 9% lower with a hard Brexit. Correct me if I’m wrong but this means slower growth than if we stayed in the EU rather than overall GDP contraction from where we are now?
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Did it state what growth is expected to be if we were to stay in the EU?
 
saivet said:
Did it state what growth is expected to be if we were to stay in the EU?
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Not as far as I can see although

To put a figure on it.

The estimates do not put a cash figure on the potential impact on the economy, but independent experts have said that 3.9% of GDP would equate to about £100bn a year by the 2030s

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162


These predictions come with many caveats though as they 'could' happen and are not 'forecast' with the hard Brexit modelling based on a 'disorderly' Brexit, which I presume means without any ad-hoc arrangements being made with the EU to smooth the impact (which seems likely to happen in the event of a HB). The headlines are also 'the worst case scenario' for each model.
 
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2 man midfield said:
What are the Bank of England, who presumably have at least a few people who know a bit about economics, doing scaremongering about a possible recession? Isn’t that pretty much the last thing you’re supposed to do?
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A recession in the event of no deal is inevitable whether the BoE scaremonger or not.
 
2 man midfield said:
What are the Bank of England, who presumably have at least a few people who know a bit about economics, doing scaremongering about a possible recession? Isn’t that pretty much the last thing you’re supposed to do?
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Would you prefer the Bank of England see a recession coming and warn nobody?
 
The interesting thing is that a FTA deal would be almost as bad as hard brexit according to the BoE. Under both scenarios unemployment rises to 6.5%+.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
What?
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I don't know what you don't understand. The BoE historically has been careful with it's language to avoid a self-fulfilling recession, they certainly don't 'warn' people to prepare for recession that just creates further contraction.

In this case a no deal brexit is going to cause immediate contraction and panic anyway so they're free to be as much of a cassandra as they wan. Like Carney said they had no choice it was asked of them.
 
She keeps saying "no one thought we would get this deal", who exactly?

She's giving evidence to the brexit committee currently and answering absolutely nothing but giving her prepared slogans even when they don't make sense.
 
Smores said:
I don't know what you don't understand. The BoE historically has been careful with it's language to avoid a self-fulfilling recession, they certainly don't 'warn' people to prepare for recession that just creates further contraction.

In this case a no deal brexit is going to cause immediate contraction and panic anyway so they're free to be as much of a cassandra as they wan. Like Carney said they had no choice it was asked of them.
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I don't think this is true.

Lets face it, there's a faction of hysterical remainers that are 'spooked' but the majority of people in the UK are just getting on with their lives as normal. I think this is one of the reasons the economy has remained so resilient since the vote because consumer confidence has remained relatively buoyant. It was only in the past week that an article in The Guardian claimed that the British people were 'too relaxed' about the prospect of a hard Brexit.
 
London will lose up to to €800bn (£700bn) in assets to rival financial hub Frankfurt by March 2019 as banks start to transfer business to the German city before Brexit day.

The lobby group Frankfurt Main Finance released the figure after it was confirmed that 30 banks and financial firms had chosen the city as the site of their new EU headquarters.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politic...00bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit

And so it begins. Ah well, guess we didn't want that business anyway..
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I don't think this is true.

Lets face it, there's a faction of hysterical remainers that are 'spooked' but the majority of people in the UK are just getting on with their lives as normal. I think this is one of the reasons the economy has remained so resilient since the vote because consumer confidence has remained relatively buoyant. It was only in the past week that an article in The Guardian claimed that the British people were 'too relaxed' about the prospect of a hard Brexit.
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One of the reasons thingns have been relatively stable is because the Bank of England stepped in and took action after the referendum result.
 
Watching May in front of the liaison committee and Bernard Jenkin MP calls the chancellor's forecast propaganda.

The chancellory is being led by his own party... Do these people have no shame whatsoever? These people are jokes that would make Trump proud.
 
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