Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
rcoobc said:
So, I see Brexit playing out like this;

1) Commons vote on May's plan
2) Is rejected
3) Amendments added to the text from every corner, remain, leave, lib dem, labour, SNP, hard, soft, boiled
4) Most of those are rejected. Except a hard amendment which allows the transition and backstop to remain except a hard brexit following that (Chequers is dead).

And that's it. Brexit passes with the promise of a hard brexit in 2+ years time
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This still sounds like the UK can make all the amendments they want and argue amongst themselves about it.
Any amendments have to be agreed by the EU27. They keep saying this is it, negotiations are over.
The only way the UK gets transition is if they vote for this deal.

If the Uk leaves the backstop thereafter it's a hard Brexit anyway .
 
Eboue said:
Do you think countries trade healthcare systems back and forth?
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Trade deals usually mean reciprocal standards and regulations, so the risk is that the US would call the NHS an unfair subsidy impacting its insurance/pharma companies. Or something like that.
 
Klopper76 said:
Good. The UK doesn't want chlorinated chicken and privatized healthcare.
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We do want JD though
Paul the Wolf said:
This still sounds like the UK can make all the amendments they want and argue amongst themselves about it.
Any amendments have to be agreed by the EU27. They keep saying this is it, negotiations are over.
The only way the UK gets transition is if they vote for this deal.

If the Uk leaves the backstop thereafter it's a hard Brexit anyway .
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If there is a backstop we can't leave it without the EU's agreement so that means that there won't be a hard Brexit.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
He's right if he means an independent trade deal between the UK and USA. Until the UK leave the CU they can't have trade deals with anyone - but they have the trade deals the EU have.
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So he's wrong because he doesn't say we won't be able to negotiate a trade deal but that we won't be able to trade.
 
Fully Fledged said:
If there is a backstop we can't leave it without the EU's agreement so that means that there won't be a hard Brexit.
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Yes, so this deal is utterly pointless but it complies with the Referendum result which asked should the UK leave the European Union which they are on 29th March.
At the end of the day it is a choice between staying in the EU or a Hard Brexit.

The deal May has means the UK is not in the EU but if they ever stray from the agreement it is a Hard Brexit otherwise it's BINO.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Brexit in name only. The UK have left but are still in the CU and SM but have no representation in the EU parliament , no vote, no say but still making contributions.
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That's what I expected but it's still strange to actually read the agreement and basically every other article stipulates that things are under "Union laws". You just have to question the usefulness of this process.
 
JPRouve said:
That's what I expected but it's still strange to actually read the agreement and basically every other article stipulates that things are under "Union laws". You just have to question the usefulness of this process.
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That's a bit insincere. We've all known the process to be useless from beginning ;). This is just the logical conclusion of that uselessness.
 
JPRouve said:
That's what I expected but it's still strange to actually read the agreement and basically every other article stipulates that things are under "Union laws". You just have to question the usefulness of this process.
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May's trying to make herself as some kind of super negotiator that she's managed to get this agreement, Corbyn thinks he has even more superior negotiating skills that he would have even more benefits than May thought she could have whereas in fact the EU have given the UK exactly what we knew they would.

Trying to find something the UK could have done that would have surpassed this idiocy, maybe declare war on Trump?
 
The thing is that even if we crash out I still think that when we negotiate a trade agreement the only one on the table will be Brexit in name only. The only thing is what little crumbs the EU give the negotiators to appease their base.
 
Fully Fledged said:
He could get a different deal. The Tories had their priorities on what they wanted to give the EU the deal it wanted. Labour would have different priorities. The EU has conceded on some of the Tory priorities to get the deal they wanted while none of the Labour priorities have been even aired let alone agreed to. If May needed Labour to get this deal through parliament then she should have invited them to the negotiating table so they could get some of the things they wanted in the agreement.

If the Tories negotiate an agreement solely on their priorities and with only their input then it is up to them to get it through parliament.
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It may have been a slightly smoother process under Labour or with Labour invited on a cross party basis (both in terms of them being less obnoxious on Europe than the Tories and not wasting 2 years with David Davis running the show) but the range of options and trade offs would not be fundamentally different. In particularly, in order to get a “better deal” or “retention of benefits” (which I think we can interpret as a degree of access to the single market more comparable to what we have now), the UK would almost certainly need to make concessions on freedom of movement. Politically, that remains a very hard sell for Labour in its old heartlands and therefore you have this ambiguity about what their leadership really wants from the range of achievable options.
 
MoskvaRed said:
It may have been a slightly smoother process under Labour or with Labour invited on a cross party basis (both in terms of them being less obnoxious on Europe than the Tories and not wasting 2 years with David Davis running the show) but the range of options and trade offs would not be fundamentally different. In particularly, in order to get a “better deal” or “retention of benefits” (which I think we can interpret as a degree of access to the single market more comparable to what we have now), the UK would almost certainly need to make concessions on freedom of movement. Politically, that remains a very hard sell for Labour in its old heartlands and therefore you have this ambiguity about what their leadership really wants from the range of achievable options.
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The Tories have been thrown some crumbs to appease them on accepting that we are basically a vassal state unless the EU allow us out of the backstop, which isn't going to happen. Just ask Turkey.

A few crumbe might also appease labour.
 
Guardian said:
Donald Trump has delivered a weighty blow to Theresa May’s hopes of steering her Brexit deal through parliament, saying it sounded like a “great deal for the EU” that would stop the UK trading with the US.
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Corbyn trying to wriggle out of the debate. Which is fair enough since his position is even more vague than May's.
The free vote ensures May doesn't have to resign. It also puts Corbyn in an awkward position. The idea Corbyn won't take any blame for a brexit disaster has been fanciful from the beginning. Which makes his "constructive ambiguity" a shit approach.
He would have had a genuine case for whipping his MPs against the deal if he had declared a workable plan right from the beginning.
Whipping his MPs against the deal without a constructive plan isn't a good look and who knows how the next two weeks go. Opinion might have changed so much so that there's a genuine risk it passes with enough Labour support if he gives a free vote.
 
Thing i dont understand about your supposed future trade strategy is this: the EU has active trade deals/agreements/ongoing trade negotiations with all major markets, including Japan, China and the US. Why are you expecting the UK as an isolated player somehow will manage to get better deals? You can't get better deals than the EU. Massive economies/blocks will play with you guys.

I read some people online saying that "economy is not everything". No, guys, economy is everything.
 
ITV's political editor Robert Peston:
'...that leads a growing number of MPs to muse that the best thing may be to cancel Brexit altogether. Some tell me that as a nation we should risk the humiliation of apologising to the EU - and the world - and just rescind our "Article 50" request to leave, even if that entailed seeing the EU in court over it. It would not mean cancelling Brexit forever. But it would mean buying back the months or even years needed to decide a proper and decent future relationship with the EU.'
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SteveJ said:
ITV's political editor Robert Peston:
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Has the court case about brexit even been looked at yet... The one about if the UK can cancel article 50 unilaterally

Edit ... Oh it's supposed to be today

To be honest revoking at the last minute and then not approving EU budgets and generally being an arse by not sending money etc sounds like a Johnson move if they do let us revoke unilaterally
 
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SteveJ said:
ITV's political editor Robert Peston:
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I'm not even sure what he's getting at there. Effectively cancelling Brexit so that they have more time to do it again? The EU will likely enforce policies that ensure the UK can't leave again for the forseeable future, and rightly so as this has probably already caused both parties a hell of a lot of money, especially countries like Ireland and France who are having to upgrade thei border controls to prepare for a hard Brexit.

I'm all for a vote but my main problem is that to an extent, the guy above is probably right, staying in the EU now just sounds a bit like the Treaty of Versailles (obviously in a very different context), there will be a lot of resentment if Brexit doesn't happen and a future repeat/turmoil is inevitable.
 
Charles Miller said:
Thing i dont understand about your supposed future trade strategy is this: the EU has active trade deals/agreements/ongoing trade negotiations with all major markets, including Japan, China and the US. Why are you expecting the UK as an isolated player somehow will manage to get better deals? You can't get better deals than the EU. Massive economies/blocks will play with you guys.

I read some people online saying that "economy is not everything". No, guys, economy is everything.
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This also is highlighted that "economy was not primary concern for polled leavers"

It soon will be for them when they try and find the usual scapegoats to blame for their economic woes
 
Latest argument is May telling her party they should just vote it through as not doing so would make them look divided and be politically damaging to the party.

Yeah biggest issue of the generation and they should only consider the party :lol:
 
Smores said:
Latest argument is May telling her party they should just vote it through as not doing so would make them look divided and be politically damaging to the party.

Yeah biggest issue of the generation and they should only consider the party :lol:
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Yeah I don't think anyone had noticed up until now.
 
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