I think it was never going to be otherwise. Given the future of the Union is more important politically than the 'best' deal that could be made, the UK was always going to pay a heavy price for Brexit.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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I think it was never going to be otherwise. Given the future of the Union is more important politically than the 'best' deal that could be made, the UK was always going to pay a heavy price for Brexit.
Both sides sign it, otherwise there wouldn't be a deal.
The Uk aren't going to get a better deal, so it's as it always has been - take what the EU offers, remain or crash out with no deal.
Cherries and cake have always been off the menu.
Also I remember reading a poll of Tory members in England with a clear majority saying that the break-up of the UK is a price worth paying for Brexit.
EDIT: Here it is
EDIT: Here it is
It has nothing to do with politics, there was no "best" deal due to practical and legal reasons.
My point is that those practical and legal reasons are political reasons. And if there was some hypothetical amazing deal possible for the UK then that would not be politicallt feasible due to the EU's position (which has always been constant) that the single market, the Union, and the customs union cannot be compromised, as doing so could encourage other states to leave.
And the UK started in 2016 with next to no negotiators (as all UK negotiators and trade experts are based in Brussels) and for far too long thought the EU's position was a starting point in negotiations, rather than simply their position. Now we are in a state where half the UK is pissed off we are leaving and the other half will be pissed off when the economic shock of Brexit is felt in the years to come.
Indeed. There was never any reason for a leaving member to get a deal that was more favourable towards itself than the EU. No negotiator in any political or business situation would take such an approach and we should've known that from the start. Our own pompous attitude and arrogance regarding the whole process hasn't exactly helped things either.
The issue is that your first paragraph is wrong and it's the probably the main issue in all of this, it's the voluntary confusion of the EU and its member states. Those hypothetical amazing deals for the UK are damaging for the other countries from an individual standpoint, for us it's a matter of survival, it's not political, it's not an act. If France gets into a border and custom issue it's going to be infinitely different to anything the UK can imagine, it's going to cost us infinitely more than you can imagine, most of the EU members aren't on islands, the SM and CU are essential to us from a practical standpoint.
Sometimes I feel that you are using your british perspective to other members not realizing where you geographically are.
I think we may be talking around each other a bit.
I wasn't trying to confuse the EU and the MS to be fair. I addressed the EU as an institution in its own right with its own priorities. And it has been clear even before the referendum, even before the Lisbon, Amsterdam and Maastricht Treaties that the EU (as a political actor) has placed the security of its own future as an institution above offering bespoke deals to MS.
There are of course individual issues for the MS - the Irish Border, the Visigrad Four and their concerns about freedom of movement and so on and so on. And yes, for individual MS there are of course interests which relate to the structure of the EU, the Eurozone and EU law (and others) which are (using your terms) matters above politics.
On your point about the UK being an island - that has influenced UK foreign policy for hundreds of years. But even today there are a large number of UK politicians who support Leave who miss the point that we are no longer an island, and we will have a land border with the EU. That may have shaped many of the proposals from the Leave campaign that were political non-starters.
I'm not sure I follow the last sentence entirely though?
The number of posts confidently predicting the future seems to have dropped a bit over the last couple of days for some reason, so I'll start:
May will make parliament's vote on approval of the withdrawal bill a free vote, which will help to protect her from any more letters going in, and also pressure Corbyn to do the same. Corbyn will remain as confused as he is now, and Labour MPs will actually vote independently, and faced with the fact that withdrawal in March is already written into both EU and UK law their choice will effectively be soft brexit or hard brexit, and against all the predictions enough of them will back the withdrawal bill for it to pass. Yeah, I know the world and his dog say May won't get the numbers, I think otherwise.
May will make parliament's vote on approval of the withdrawal bill a free vote, which will help to protect her from any more letters going in, and also pressure Corbyn to do the same. Corbyn will remain as confused as he is now, and Labour MPs will actually vote independently, and faced with the fact that withdrawal in March is already written into both EU and UK law their choice will effectively be soft brexit or hard brexit, and against all the predictions enough of them will back the withdrawal bill for it to pass. Yeah, I know the world and his dog say May won't get the numbers, I think otherwise.
I know you do not mean a war.
I imagine that this whole situation has put people on nerves and these debates end like this.
About pirates and illegal occupation ...I think that our history books say very different things.
Besides,you underestimate our military power.
A simple scratch and our three planes will turn the island into a great golf course
The number of posts confidently predicting the future seems to have dropped a bit over the last couple of days for some reason, so I'll start:
May will make parliament's vote on approval of the withdrawal bill a free vote, which will help to protect her from any more letters going in, and also pressure Corbyn to do the same. Corbyn will remain as confused as he is now, and Labour MPs will actually vote independently, and faced with the fact that withdrawal in March is already written into both EU and UK law their choice will effectively be soft brexit or hard brexit, and against all the predictions enough of them will back the withdrawal bill for it to pass. Yeah, I know the world and his dog say May won't get the numbers, I think otherwise.
I don't think you're too far wrong except I don't think Corbyn is confused, just that his cunning plan wasn't very cunning. Gutless politicans to the fore. BINO.
And that's the issue, you addressed the EU as an institution when you are in a situation where it's the 27 other members that you are facing, that's a fundamental issue. They are the ones that don't want to compromise the institution, institution that they created that they control and is the voice of the EU council. Just a reminder, Barnier gets his instructions from the capitals, they are the ones telling him what to do and not do.
Also I'm not sure about what you mean concerning bespoke deals for member states, there are plenty of them, basically every member state with overseas territory has one, France had one regarding its relation with Monaco and you can see them in pretty much every EU treaties. As long as they have no negative consequences on other member states, bespoke deals aren't an issue.
Agreed but ironically, freedom of movement will continue under her deal unless she can figure out how to leave the SM & CU and still leave the Irish border invisible.
It was the politest word I could think of. Corbyn could still change the course of events by putting forward a bill requesting another referendum, but he'd need to persuade enough Tories to back it, and instead I think he'll gamble on May losing the approval vote and then somehow losing a no confidence vote as well. Can't see that myself.
This. The price was always going to be massive in the short term to safeguard the eu going forward. Anyone who said otherwise is just deluded about the importance of UK to Europe and vice versa. This always had to be a change for the long run, next 10 year's or so will be painful
Agreed but the only point of another referendum would be to get a Remain win which I don't think Corbyn wants. I think whatever he does, he loses.
Is that what Spain wants out of this? A great golf course?
Jesus.Also I remember reading a poll of Tory members in England with a clear majority saying that the break-up of the UK is a price worth paying for Brexit.
EDIT: Here it is
UK can't agree to sign this deal. This could be humiliating.
We’ve already humiliated ourselves. This whole situation is one giant ridiculous blunder.
The deal itself is a joke though, you’re right. It’s just us being beholden to the EU whilst not getting a vote and suffering unnecessary complications (see: Gibraltar). All having suffered years of uncertainty and worry to get there.
So, since this deal is written down as being the transitional deal until 20XX, unless both parties agree to a new deal.
Does it mean that for the next 80 years, the UK has to accept every ruling of ECJ and new standards set by european lawmakers? If they sign it now, they can‘t just do a hard brexit on WTO rules 3 years down the road because surely the EU has no intention of agreeing to that? No exit clause for the UK here or did I miss something?
This smells like a deal that the EU would make with some heavily disadvantaged third countries from the developing world, where they set all the rules and get to keep all the earnings.
Does it mean that for the next 80 years, the UK has to accept every ruling of ECJ and new standards set by european lawmakers? If they sign it now, they can‘t just do a hard brexit on WTO rules 3 years down the road because surely the EU has no intention of agreeing to that? No exit clause for the UK here or did I miss something?
This smells like a deal that the EU would make with some heavily disadvantaged third countries from the developing world, where they set all the rules and get to keep all the earnings.
Wasn't the simple solution to that to leave Northern Ireland in the SM and CU and take Britain out of it?
Theres no deal she could make that would please everyone, the DUP wouldn't be happy but when are they ever.
Even if UK is a WTO member, for what I have been reading lately, is not that simple. It will depend on the agreement with the EU and the acceptance of the other member. One member is Russia, that took a lot of years to be able to get in because UK was very demanding *(rightfully or not)
Someone in the thread could give information about UK and WTO tariffs after brexit?
yes, its 585 pages long and can be downloaded from the UK government website
Seems the cabinet's go to line of argument is that the British people are bored with Brexit and just want to get on with life. So, on the one hand, it is the most important decision for a generation, on the other hand people are just bored with Brexit and just want to move on? If this is true, then the British people will get what they deserve for being (a)pathetic.
Indeed. When one of the most common answers to the political direction of the country is ‘just get on with it’ then it’s hard to have sympathy for a shit result.
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William Hill are giving odds on (4/6) that she gets it through.
It feels like it would normally go through (despite being a despicable piece of shit agreement) because if it doesn't then we enter real Twilight Zone crazy town territory. I just don't see where she gets the votes from. So many MP's have publicly nailed their colours to the mast now, that they'd have to do a complete 360 and look like idiots to vote for it now.
I still hope it crashes and burns personally. It's high stakes poker, but there's still time for a second referedum.
Some will come round of their own volition - especially if a 2nd ref risk grows. Some will have their arms twisted whilst others will be offered sweeteners - maybe even peerages.
A 2nd referendum would be good because I think the result would be reversed. However, it would divide this country for a generation and may even lead to civil unrest. There are labour voters in the North and North East who have been sold the notion that the only hope of their regions ever becoming prosperous again is if we leave the EU.
The choice on the ballot paper should have read 'Leave the EU on WTO rules' or 'Stay'. No in-between because it is that and the range of views it covers which is causing all this trouble.
Had that been the case Farage and his merry men would have lost.
Reports that May has challenged Corbyn to a debate over the deal which is very odd and sounds more and more like they're trying to paint it as a party issue and Labour blocking brexit. They've got an eye on a GE even if they've no plans currently to call one.
Yeah that's a strange one. She refused to go head-to-head with Corbyn during the last GE campaign. Why would she want a debate now?
I disagree with your conclusion, Brexiters wouldve still voted for WTO in their droves, like lemmings piling off a cliff.
But at least it would have been more conclusive than this. There are 40 different ideas of what the people voted for.
Jezzer better start boning up on Brexit
He's going to deliver Labour Brexit policy through a series of interpretive dances.
These are odd moves by May. Talking to the public, offering Jezzer out. Either she's thought this through like a 4d chess player or her cheese has done gone and slipped off her cracker.
I'd assume because they know it corners Corbyn, she's been trying to do the same at PMQs. Corbyn's line is you've not delivered on what you said so hand over to us but when it comes to pragmatic solution on the way forward he's stumped as he can't say second referendum (yet).
I've seen Stamer has come out calling for an extension but they'll argue whats the point as the EU have said that's it.
Labour will either have to keep up the charade and look as stupid as the leavers or back a people's vote and potentially get annihilated
Let me get this right, the woman who was so bad on the campaign trail that they kept locking journalists in rooms so they couldn’t ask her questions is going to go head to head on TV with Corbyn? Has she lost her fecking mind?