Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Not at all
Probably may goes but then there is a conservative leadership election NOT a general election
New leader... Probably Johnson or mogg etc will leave without a deal
Only way there is a ge is loosing a formal no confidence vote or 2/3 of MP's vote for an early election
Dup would probably back no deal and a new conservative leadership would probably have it in their mandade from the party so would carry almost all.conservative votes... Plus some hardcore labour leave
Much more likley than a ge I think
Can Mogg as a catholic become PM?
I know that Blair thought that he couldn’t so left becoming catholic until after he gave up his post.
 
No deal would mean a hard border in Northern Ireland. I don't see anyone doing that and the EU know this.

I wish I shared your optimism. One can only imagine that the insistence on the Irish government's part that there be a backstop agreement was a result of them not trusting the UK to avoid pratfalling their way to a hard border.

Looking at hardline brexiters as a group, I see people who have at various points either wilfully ignored the reality of how borders work, compared the border to imaginary borders between different parts of London, happily admitted to not knowing anything about NI, outright stated that Brexit has to take priority over the GFA and/or described the GFA in terms such as "capitulation", "rigged" and a "mortal stain". This group seems likely to benefit from May's departure. What right minded person would trust them?

Meanwhile, the opposition's Brexit plans as currently expressed would also lead to a hard border as they aren't based in reality either.
 
Hold on didn’t the cabinet vote for the deal on the table? Wouldn’t it be undeomcratic for members of the governing party to vote against it then?
 
Hold on didn’t the cabinet vote for the deal on the table? Wouldn’t it be undeomcratic for members of the governing party to vote against it then?

I'd make a couple of points.

First, it is duplicitous (but not undemocratic) for members of the Cabinet like Raab to have approved the deal and then resigned over it.

Second, it isn't undemocratic for MPs to vote against the deal, or any government policy. Even if a three-line whip is established, MPs can vote against the deal, with the risk being that teh whip is withdrawn from them and they have to sit as independents. However, many may risk this if they feel May's authority is ebbing away. So, in short, it isn't undemocratic.
 
Yes, there is no religious restriction to the PM, only the Monarch.
. shall not be lawful for any person professing the Roman Catholic religion directly or indirectly to advise his Majesty, or any person or persons holding or exercising the office of guardians of the United Kingdom, or of regent of the United Kingdom, under whatever name, style, or title such office may be constituted, 1
The PM advises the monarch. The queen’s speech is advising the Monarch for an example.
 
Labour will have played an absolute blinder throughut if this pans out. If we get a general election the government/conservatives have to stick to the deal they have mustered up they can go in the other direction and support a peoples vote. Get into government and get a way out of Brexit too. Win win!
 
Sounds very much like May will surive then....for now
could buy her up to another month I guess

i can see the logic because delaing things by a month gives even less time for another leader to renegotiate or to extend A50 or to look at a GE or 2nd referendum before we crash out with no deal... which ultimatley is what a lot of the ERG seem to want anyway
 
Labour will have played an absolute blinder throughut if this pans out. If we get a general election the government/conservatives have to stick to the deal they have mustered up they can go in the other direction and support a peoples vote. Get into government and get a way out of Brexit too. Win win!
except I cant see how or why there would be a GE - under what circumstances would that play out rather than just electing a new conservative leader and going with no deal?
 
I'd make a couple of points.

First, it is duplicitous (but not undemocratic) for members of the Cabinet like Raab to have approved the deal and then resigned over it.

Second, it isn't undemocratic for MPs to vote against the deal, or any government policy. Even if a three-line whip is established, MPs can vote against the deal, with the risk being that teh whip is withdrawn from them and they have to sit as independents. However, many may risk this if they feel May's authority is ebbing away. So, in short, it isn't undemocratic.
Indeed an MP's first loyalty is always to their own political career should be to the national interest and the people they represent rather than the party
 
The PM advises the monarch. The queen’s speech is advising the Monarch for an example.

Yes but the 1829 Act would be unlawful today by virtue of the Human Rights Act. Most likely it wouldn't be enforced, rather than a case be brought and challenged. The 1998 Act could be seen as impliedly repealing the 1829 Act.
 
Talk of Chris Grayling set to resign now too. No idea if that's because of May's Brexit deal or just because he's completely useless.
 
Hold on didn’t the cabinet vote for the deal on the table? Wouldn’t it be undeomcratic for members of the governing party to vote against it then?
No vote was taken. About 10 voiced 'frank' opinions and concerns. Ester McVey was royally bollocked by the Whip. It was then declared as 'collectively approved' and they all had a glass of wine.
 
The PM advises the monarch. The queen’s speech is advising the Monarch for an example.

Actually just on this we have had many Catholic Government Ministers over the past 40 or so years who would have advised the monarch.

And we have had Catholics who were Privy Councillors and the Privy Council does advise the monarch in relation to Orders in Council, so I think the 1829 is ignored in practice.
 
Well said, people have no idea what is involved and think they are just going to copy and paste the deals the EU already has. The work will be astronomical and the UK don't have the expertise and experience to do it.
Another case of we'll just carry on , not much will change. Ha! There's a big awakening approaching.

Also, people still ignoring the devastating effect a border with the slightest friction will cause.

Well they were warned but they're not listening.

No, they actually were not really, at least not properly. This part of Brexit was always in the background, if it was mentioned at all. In part I understand that, because economy and safety are simply better sells than the bureaucratic factor, especially if the other side used the bureaucratic nature of EU as one of their biggest selling points.

The Remain campaign and the mass media still really dropped the ball on the topic of informing about the ramifications for the administrative work beginning on the highest level down to the local communities.

This would also not be a UK specific problem. When Brexit first became a topic institutes ran simulations of how leaving the Union would affect the administrative sectors of certain countries, I personally know of ones about Germany, Sweden and Finland. All these countries are frontrunners in terms of bureaucratic efficiency and structure. The results of these simulations were not pretty. At all.

I said this once already in this thread over a year ago, but Brexit is the single most daunting bureaucratic undertaking a modern Western democracy has ever faced.

It makes the German Reunification, which resulted in over 15 Mil. people having to adapt to new laws and tons of regulations for every part of their lives, look like child´s play and this event caused chaos on the administrive level for about two years, took seven or so years to be smoothed out for the most part and creates even now, nearly 30 years later, still after effects. Brexit involves more people and instead of adapting to already existing law, it will often need to be build from the ground up.

There is no single bureaucracy in the world that would be equipped to deal with this in a decent manner. The scale is just too great and the timeframe too narrow. This problem can´t also be solved solely by money either. What the UK Administration needs the most is time, time to bring in more people and educate them properly, but they also need to know what they have to prepare for. From my experience as educator and instructor, five years would be a fair estimation.

The UK government needs to secure a transitional deal that gives them time, but also includes a clear commitment down the line they can work towards to and prepare for, whatever this commitment would look like.

This would at least soften the blow of the bureaucratic aspect and one of the major challenges that Brexit represents. The economical fall out and safety issues are completely different (and in some parts even conflicting) challenges.
 
What? More information is ideally how politics should be. Informed decisions... :confused:

Huh? Do you think everyone knew what they were voting for? A lot of things only came to light after the vote such as hard or soft brexit. This wasn’t an informed vote for the masses
No I don't but I also think the people who voted remain also had no idea what they were voting for other than keeping things the same. The problems I have with the informed argument is that

1)It's a argument that always stops at certain point and goes no further(Which is why it's such as ill effect political move). Yes we can talk about how much damage a no deal Brexit will do, yes we can show how there's no border tech to fix the NL problem etc but we are doing this in a world where only 10 years ago the ''experts'' made one of the biggest financial crashes all of time and not only got away with it but profited from it, that leave voters are racists bigots(Yes a lot are)and yet the union they decided to leave is one that watches brown people drown in the sea and finally we live in economic system that is literally killing the earth.

My point being the facts we live by in our day to day lives are completely irrational.

2)It fundamentally misunderstand the way politics functions which is a battle between social and economic classes. The reasons Brexit happened was not because of a mis informed public but decades of long anti immigration rhetoric, a economic policy that has destroyed the country, a political ideology that killed the idea of meaningful democracy(This ideology was literally based on the idea of ''experts'' and facts'') imperialist history, racism etc. A 100 page document of why there's no fixed solution to the border NL will be just that. Fact & statics are of course important but they have to act as a part of a wider story. The failure of Remain to keep UK in the EU is testament to this failure of a wider story.
 
Gove has turned down the job of Brexit Secretary, according to the Evening Standard.
chatting to his mate Osborn then... no doubt trying to slime his way into the standard backing him (as his wife used her mail column to the same ends...)
Still Im sure george is enjoying watching May struggle (and probably telling people he could have done a better job but knowing in reality he probably couldnt)

 
No I don't but I also think the people who voted remain also had no idea what they were voting for other than keeping things the same. The problems I have with the informed argument is that

1)It's a argument that always stops at certain point and goes no further(Which is why it's such as ill effect political move). Yes we can talk about how much damage a no deal Brexit will do, yes we can show how there's no border tech to fix the NL problem etc but we are doing this in a world where only 10 years ago the ''experts'' made one of the biggest financial crashes all of time and not only got away with it but profited from it, that leave voters are racists bigots(Yes a lot are)and yet the union they decided to leave is one that watches brown people drown in the sea and finally we live in economic system that is literally killing the earth.

My point being the facts we live by in our day to day lives are completely irrational.

2)It fundamentally misunderstand the way politics functions which is a battle between social and economic classes. The reasons Brexit happened was not because of a mis informed public but decades of long anti immigration rhetoric, a economic policy that has destroyed the country, a political ideology that killed the idea of meaningful democracy(This ideology was literally based on the idea of ''experts'' and facts'') imperialist history, racism etc. A 100 page document of why there's no fixed solution to the border NL will be just that. Fact & statics are of course important but they have to act as a part of a wider story. The failure of Remain to keep UK in the EU is testament to this failure of a wider story.

I agree that it’s because Of years of anti Europe rhetoric but those politicians and parties aren’t going to admit that even for the sake of the country

Therefore imho it should be clearly laid out what the pros and cons are and the potential knock on effects
 
Time for a GE on the issue of Brexit. The time has come for the Lib Dems to rise like a Phoenix from the flames as the only remain party.

Time is up for political charlatans like Corbyn and the Tories.
 
Talk of Chris Grayling set to resign now too. No idea if that's because of May's Brexit deal or just because he's completely useless.

Irony of ironies if he goes due to this and not the 4000 times he has fecked up due to his incompetence.

Time for a GE on the issue of Brexit. The time has come for the Lib Dems to rise like a Phoenix from the flames as the only remain party.

Time is up for political charlatans like Corbyn and the Tories.

It is only Corbyn that is the issue. Even McDonnell would provide a remain option.