Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[saivet]

I do worry how (if it does happen, and I think it will) another referendum/People's Vote will alter the political make-up of our country. I can't help but feel it would perhaps act as a catalyst for a rise in support for more right-wing politics if a new vote was granted and the country voted to remain. Law of unintended consequences and all that.

A part of me thinks it's just better to leave and deal with the fall out, however bad it may be.

The whole thing is just a gigantic mess. Surely history will judge Cameron as the worst PM in modern history, if it doesn't already. A part of me actually empathises with May as she literally has an impossible job.

This is how I feel too, especially on the bold. We don't leave the EU at all, second referendum or not and there will an uproar. Hard brexit and we're potentially fecked.

As pointless as I think a soft Brexit is, I hope it could be enough to appease those who wanted out of the EU. People are fickle and a symbolic leaving of the EU may satisfy enough despite the lack of practical difference.

 

[rpitchfo]

I voted remain but I tend to agree with the idea that we have to leave properly now.

We are a democracy and with that comes the responsibility to honour even bad decisions.

We have to be able to self destruct....will it cripple a generation? Probably! and then the people who wanted that can be castrated by history as far I’m concerned. I can’t bear the idea of the Tory backbencher bleating on about the patriotic perfect brexit anymore.

No deal...full removal....falling off the edge of a cliff stuff. I want to see it play out now. Rule Brittania

 

[GloryHunter07]

As the DUP are so unhappy won't they withdraw their supply and confidence agreement? I'd be surprised if they don't, so will the Tories continue as a minority government, or is a general election a certainty?

The DUP get literally billions of £ to stick with the Tories, so they wont walk away easily

 

[esmufc07]

Can Cameron be blamed for people being stupid enough to vote leave ?

Yes he should never have given the option and clearly got carried away with Scotland vote but I would put more blame on Farage and his racial scaremongering as well as Boris who knew voting leave would be a disaster but used it in a desperate attempt to grab power at any cost .

They and the idiots who listened to their lies are the people to blame the most here

I fact I would blame Ed Miliband for stabbing his own brother in the back as none of this would ever have happened otherwise

It's a multi-faceted issue and obviously the blame can't be fully laid at Cameron's feet, but as PM he should never have put a referendum on the table, and did so only because UKIP was taking away Tory votes. He was arrogant enough to think the country would never vote leave, despite half a decade of austerity and immigrant bashing.

However, simply labeling anyone who voted leave as an idiot isn't at all helpful. People voted for many different things, and it's a complex issue.

 

[711]

Almost certain no general election
Possibly enough labour MP's hate Corbyn more than the brexiteers hate may (and she gets The Deal through)
And for certain the dup hate Corbyn more than they hate may
More likley they try to take may down but that only triggers a conservative leadership election most likley won by a eurosceptic such as Johnson Davies or mogg... But no requirement for a general election

Dup will probably support the new leader based on a hard brexit

Betfair odds on the year of the next general election has the favourite as 2019 (5/4) and the least likely as 2021 (10/1). This obviously proves bog-all but I find it interesting nonetheless.

 

[711]

The DUP get literally billions of £ to stick with the Tories, so they wont walk away easily

It was £1 billion extra, I believe, which isn't actually a lot as a proportion of the Northern Irish budget. Irish politicians seem incredibly passionate about their causes to me, I can't see that as being anywhere near enough to influence their decision. The loyalists want complete union, I reckon they would sacrifice anything for that

 

[sun_tzu]

Betfair odds on the year of the next general election has the favourite as 2019 (5/4) and the least likely as 2021 (10/1). This obviously proves bog-all but I find it interesting nonetheless.

Paddy power similar with 2022 at 6/4
Suspect 2019 skewed by significant short term bets

 

[sun_tzu]

It was £1 billion extra, I believe, which isn't actually a lot as a proportion of the Northern Irish budget. Irish politicians seem incredibly passionate about their causes to me, I can't see that as being anywhere near enough to influence their decision. The loyalists want complete union, I reckon they would sacrifice anything for that

Anythibg... Including the peace process... Yeah actually sadly I think your right

 

[711]

Paddy power similar with 2022 at 6/4
Suspect 2019 skewed by significant short term bets

Could be. I am a gambler but I'm staying right out of this one!

 

[jeff_goldblum]

Politicians of both parties who consciously ended heavy industry, left the worst affected areas to rot and blamed it on the EU and immigration are culpable for Brexit. For many places in this country changes in government over the last 35 years haven't yielded any concrete improvement to peoples' lives, many people saw Brexit as a once in a lifetime chance to effect real change.

Cameron deserves especial blame for doing more than most to make people miserable and scapegoat EU migration whilst reading the mood so disastrously that he actually gave people the chance to vote on it.

 

[Sweet Square]

Politicians of both parties who consciously ended heavy industry, left the worst affected areas to rot and blamed it on the EU and immigration are culpable for Brexit. For many places in this country changes in government over the last 35 years haven't yielded any concrete improvement to peoples' lives, many people saw Brexit as a once in a lifetime chance to effect real change.

Cameron deserves especial blame for doing more than most to make people miserable and scapegoat EU migration whilst reading the mood so disastrously that he actually gave people the chance to vote on it.

Agree although would help if they stopped voting tory.

 

[VeevaVee]

It's a multi-faceted issue and obviously the blame can't be fully laid at Cameron's feet, but as PM he should never have put a referendum on the table, and did so only because UKIP was taking away Tory votes. He was arrogant enough to think the country would never vote leave, despite half a decade of austerity and immigrant bashing.

However, simply labeling anyone who voted leave as an idiot isn't at all helpful. People voted for many different things, and it's a complex issue.

Most were at least naive and easily fooled. That includes my Dad who's otherwise a smart, reasonable guy and voted Labour all his life, but fell for some (imo obvious) lies about how it would somehow improve British industry, which he's worked in since he was 16. Still totally ignores all the implosions we see and pretends it's all ok, like most of them from what I've seen. I'm not sure why he thought giving complete power to a Tory government was ever a good idea for it, but also don't think many looked much further than the flurry of crappy 'info' thrown about at the time.

I'd rather we do it again because I think it will actually put all those who've already seen it as justification for their right wing views in their place, rather than see them rise up, and at least in the long term that's surely safer then allowing them to feel like they have some power because they 'won'.

 

[lsd]

Most were at least naive and easily fooled. That includes my Dad who's otherwise a smart, reasonable guy and voted Labour all his life, but fell for some (imo obvious) lies about how it would somehow improve British industry, which he's worked in since he was 16. Still totally ignores all the implosions we see and pretends it's all ok, like most of them from what I've seen. I'm not sure why he thought giving complete power to a Tory government was ever a good idea for it, but also don't think many looked much further than the flurry of crappy 'info' thrown about at the time.

I'd rather we do it again because I think it will actually put all those who've already seen it as justification for their right wing views in their place, rather than see them rise up, and at least in the long term that's surely safer then allowing them to feel like they have some power because they 'won'.

Exactly you can't just blame the guy who gave the choice you have to blame the people who voted for it .

There had to be a lot of labour supporters who for whatever reason listened to Farage and Boris and actually agreed .

It is all mental as for the DUP going by the votes iv seen here a great deal of their voters opted to stay yet they ignore that to claim some power with the Tories .

A lot of influential people made the wrong decision that they didn't even agree on because of greed .

Then you have Corbyn sitting doing and saying nothing weakening his and labours position by the day .

The future is not bright here especially when the only person who seems to have come out of this with any credibility is Jo Johnson which is shocking

 

[711]

It's sod's law that the Liberals are the weakest they've been for generations just when they're the only ones who are right.

 

[Andrew~]

Why are people here so confident that if there was a second vote, the previous vote would be overturned?

 

[Cheesy]

Why are people here so confident that if there was a second vote, the previous vote would be overturned?

I think most people recognise that there'd be no guarantee. Just that there'd be a somewhat decent chance. Polling for remain is reasonably strong and the process for leaving has been a complete cock-up from start to finish, highlighting the stupidity of the process. I doubt any Remain vote would manage to get above 55% and so it'd obviously be an incredibly tight hypothetical vote, but if lessons could be learned from 2016 then there'd be a decent chance. Although it's all hypothetical anyway since a second vote won't happen.

 

[redshaw]

Why are people here so confident that if there was a second vote, the previous vote would be overturned?

Maybe it's easier to stay after watching it play out over the last two years.

I'd say more people and even politicians are informed of the process and ramifications. The run up to the vote was a lot of scaremongering without much explanation of key parts of the membership.

While NI is not in peoples thoughts now or before, the actual idea of a return of a hard border is something most people would want to avoid. Leaving the EU means a hard border unless the EU give in and undermine the whole of the EU.

On the other hand I do see some have soured on the EU with not being very helpful.

Not known before the result was how Scotland and NI voted to stay in. If the EU is stubborn and the UK leaves then Scotland will go for another indy referendum and try to join the EU. NI face a tough outlook of a hard border or somehow breaking away to be part of the EU. Could be the end of the UK. Perhaps for some that would be good though.

Right now Brexit is very complicated with four countries, a big Ireland border issue, it's at an impasse. For a single country it would be much easier but still economically risky.

Not explained before was banking passport and financial services. UK is the financial hub of the world and that is in danger.

We don't have many cards to play with the EU. Do we want to call their bluff?

 

[Honest John]

Time for brexiteers to put up or shut up.

They won’t though. The irony is that if you offered any of them this deal one week before the referendum they’d have bitten your hand off.

 

[GloryHunter07]

It was £1 billion extra, I believe, which isn't actually a lot as a proportion of the Northern Irish budget. Irish politicians seem incredibly passionate about their causes to me, I can't see that as being anywhere near enough to influence their decision. The loyalists want complete union, I reckon they would sacrifice anything for that

You are right, thought it was more.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

A part of me thinks it's just better to leave and deal with the fall out, however bad it may be.

I'm the same. The sticking point for me is that Brexit will enable us to negotiate our own bilateral trade deals with whichever nation we want to. The absence of this ability would render Brexit completely pointless and it looks like that could happen! In effect we will remain tied to the EU on far worse terms than we used to have (we had a great deal previously!).

They were discussing on Radio 4 yesterday the idea that a hard Brexit would be 'cleansing' or a chance for a full economic re-calibration and approach. The problem with this is that a lot of people are going to get burned during that process. The people that promote these ideas are nearly always economically Brexit-proof.

 

[Maagge]

I'm the same. The sticking point for me is that Brexit will enable us to negotiate our own bilateral trade deals with whichever nation we want to. The absence of this ability would render Brexit completely pointless and it looks like that could happen! In effect we will remain tied to the EU on far worse terms than we used to have (we had a great deal previously!).

They were discussing on Radio 4 yesterday the idea that a hard Brexit would be 'cleansing' or a chance for a full economic re-calibration and approach. The problem with this is that a lot of people are going to get burned during that process. The people that promote these ideas are nearly always economically Brexit-proof.

You also have the fact it's taken this fecking long to figure out what the hell the plan is with regards to Brexit, and it's still not clear.
How much time will it take to renegotiate trade deals with every single country you'd want to trade with?

 

[Massive Spanner]

I voted remain but I tend to agree with the idea that we have to leave properly now.

We are a democracy and with that comes the responsibility to honour even bad decisions.

We have to be able to self destruct....will it cripple a generation? Probably! and then the people who wanted that can be castrated by history as far I’m concerned. I can’t bear the idea of the Tory backbencher bleating on about the patriotic perfect brexit anymore.

I swear i've seen that statement or a differently worded version of it in here a million times already, and it makes less sense every time.

if you voted remain, and now the consequences of leave look even worse than they did before, then why the actual feck would you now think you should leave?

and what does "leave properly" even mean. at the time of the referendum nobody knew what way you'd "leave" so what exactly does leaving mean now?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

You also have the fact it's taken this fecking long to figure out what the hell the plan is with regards to Brexit, and it's still not clear.
How much time will it take to renegotiate trade deals with every single country you'd want to trade with?

The idea is that it shouldn't be too traumatic with nations that already have a trade deal with the EU as the basic template and qualifying standards are already there. There would be some tweaking to better tailor the deal better to the specific interests of the partners involved (the key advantage of a bilateral deal).

Deals with the likes of India and China would obviously be a lot more complicated.

what does "leave properly" even mean. at the time of the referendum nobody knew what way you'd "leave" so what exactly does leaving mean now?

It can only mean hard Brexit.

 

[Massive Spanner]

It can only mean hard Brexit.

Why?

At the time of the referendum were people made aware by the leave campaign that you lose free trade with the EU? The difference between hard and soft brexit? that a hard border would be needed in Ireland? that the NHS, would not in fact, get £350m extra week? Was any of this said?

There was no such thing as 'leave properly' because nobody knew how you were going to leave. The leave campaign never gave any details. It's only since the result that these hard and soft options have been coming out of the woodwork.

 

[Adisa]

I get the bilateral trade deal benefit in theory. But the truth is that the deals with big economies will extract a high price. India is already talking about VISA free travel for its citizens. America has openly talked about opening our healthcare system. Nigeria (Africa's largest economy) have spoken about complete reconstruction of how the Home Office treat Nigerian citizens. I can testify to how crap it is. And lowering standards for Nigerian farm produce.
There's a fantasy that we can just walk up to countries, especially Commonwealth countries and say "give us a good deal".
I can't see how the deal we could sign could be better than the one we currently have. And I don't mean to say the deals we have in place are perfect. The EU is actually quite good at negotiating for its bloc.

I get the right wing argument. Another vote will probably unleash right wing populism like never before. But I don't think that's a good enough argument to pursue brexit at any cost. If Remain wins again, it's because some people have changed their minds. The fear of cnuts shouldn't mean we pandering to them.
It's all academic though cause I don't think there will be anitano referendum. Parliament will vote for May's deal.

 

[Andrew~]

I think most people recognise that there'd be no guarantee. Just that there'd be a somewhat decent chance. Polling for remain is reasonably strong and the process for leaving has been a complete cock-up from start to finish, highlighting the stupidity of the process. I doubt any Remain vote would manage to get above 55% and so it'd obviously be an incredibly tight hypothetical vote, but if lessons could be learned from 2016 then there'd be a decent chance. Although it's all hypothetical anyway since a second vote won't happen.

Maybe it's easier to stay after watching it play out over the last two years.

I'd say more people and even politicians are informed of the process and ramifications. The run up to the vote was a lot of scaremongering without much explanation of key parts of the membership.

While NI is not in peoples thoughts now or before, the actual idea of a return of a hard border is something most people would want to avoid. Leaving the EU means a hard border unless the EU give in and undermine the whole of the EU.

On the other hand I do see some have soured on the EU with not being very helpful.

Not known before the result was how Scotland and NI voted to stay in. If the EU is stubborn and the UK leaves then Scotland will go for another indy referendum and try to join the EU. NI face a tough outlook of a hard border or somehow breaking away to be part of the EU. Could be the end of the UK. Perhaps for some that would be good though.

Right now Brexit is very complicated with four countries, a big Ireland border issue, it's at an impasse. For a single country it would be much easier but still economically risky.

Not explained before was banking passport and financial services. UK is the financial hub of the world and that is in danger.

We don't have many cards to play with the EU. Do we want to call their bluff?

Hm, I'm not convinced this would turn out like that. If this was still a purely policy discussion, you guys are probably right. But it seems to me this has turned into another extension of the culture war and I honestly don't think there is as much love for the EU as some people seem to think.

 

[Adisa]

Look at the entire thread. Some brexiteers really were living on another planet.

 

[Massive Spanner]

How is #1 a UK win anyway?

 

[Adisa]

UK government finally realised a bad deal is better than no deal.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

This is just a loss for both sides and more annoyingly all the ill informed Brexiters will be able to bang about hypotheticals and how if we'd have left properly with no deal we'd be so much better off. Meh

 

[horsechoker]

This is just a loss for both sides and more annoyingly all the ill informed Brexiters will be able to bang about hypotheticals and how if we'd have left properly with no deal we'd be so much better off. Meh

Yeah I fear this but it could be a lot worse, this is a cup partially full scenario rather than an empty cup scenario.

 

[Rajma]

I don't get @esmufc07 and @rpitchfo outlook with respect to honoring the vote because of the fare it may rise a far-right sentiment across the country when you guys know full well the referendum vote demographics. The reality is simple overwhelming majority that voted Brexit will no longer be on this planet in 20 years time, or do you see pensioners rioting big time in the near future?

 

[Adisa]

For anyone in doubt about how dishonest these people are.

 

[Sphaero]

You also have the fact it's taken this fecking long to figure out what the hell the plan is with regards to Brexit, and it's still not clear.
How much time will it take to renegotiate trade deals with every single country you'd want to trade with?

Realistically? Decades. People who think that these agreements will just be tweaks of numbers and letters to the existing EU deals really underestimate the complexity of these deals. The terms have completely changed as the UK offers only a fraction of the buyers market and nowhere near as much in goods compared to the EU, both in variety and size.

The bureaucratic work alone to negotiate and work out this immense number of deals would be staggering and the UK lacks the manpower in each of the three democratic branches to pull that of in any decent amount of time unless they shoehorn it in which will leave the UK with very poor terms.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

I don't get @esmufc07 and @rpitchfo outlook with respect to honoring the vote because of the fare it may rise a far-right sentiment across the country when you guys know full well the referendum vote demographics. The reality is simple overwhelming majority that voted Brexit will no longer be on this planet in 20 years time, or do you see pensioners rioting big time in the near future?

No word of a lie my partners parents said they "did it for their grandchildren". And what they thought they were doing was voting to keep more foreigners from coming into the country.

The simple fact of the matter is leave would never have won if the government had listened to people's concerns on immigration (rightly or wrongly) and enacted some of the measures that Paul quoted Gordon Brown on a few pages back.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Exactly you can't just blame the guy who gave the choice you have to blame the people who voted for it .

You can certainly blame Cameron for the disastrous structure of the referendum. What other country would institute such major, unprecedented constitutional changes on a simple majority referendum? That's insanity. It was 52/48 - when the margins are so slim, the outcome literally depends on the weather on the day of the vote and the turnout. Hold the vote a week later and we stay in the EU? These are permanent changes to the very nature of our country that will affect many generations to come, you can't in good conscience make such a decision on a whim. That's why every sane country on earth makes it bloody difficult to change fundamental aspects of their constitution (I'm well aware that the UK doesn't have a formal written constitution).

It should have required either a 2/3rds vote to leave, or required all of the UK's consistent nations to have voted in a majority to leave. The gamble Cameron took with our country was bordering on treasonous.

 

[Maagge]

Realistically? Decades. People who think that these agreements will just be tweaks of numbers and letters to the existing EU deals really underestimate the complexity of these deals. The terms have completely changed as the UK offers only a fraction of the buyers market and nowhere near as much in goods compared to the EU, both in variety and size.

The bureaucratic work alone to negotiate and work out this immense number of deals would be staggering and the UK lacks the manpower in each of the three democratic branches to pull that of in any decent amount of time unless they shoehorn it in which will leave the UK with very poor terms.

Yeah just the sheer amount of paperwork I imagine is required makes me dizzy. And as you say, how many people have the UK actually got who're experienced negotiating international trade deals? You'd reckon a lot of the work was carried out by EU people and quite a while ago as well.
Without knowing anything about trade deals I imagine countries negotiating with the UK in the beginning of a no deal scenario know full well that the UK need some bloody trade deals pronto. So that's your leverage right there.

 

[Ultimate Grib]

You can certainly blame Cameron for the disastrous structure of the referendum. What other country would institute such major, unprecedented constitutional changes on a simple majority referendum. That's insanity. It was 52/48 - when it's that close the outcome literally depends on the weather on the day of the vote the margins are so slim.

It should either have required a 2/3rds vote to leave, or required all of the UK's consistent nations to have voted in a majority to leave. The gamble Cameron took with our country was bordering on treasonous.

It was unthinkable that leave would win just like in the the Scottish indyref. Ther were both merely appeasement gestures to make the "rebels" and the SNP pipe down!

A lot of people didn't think it was that close and didn't vote, a lot voted in protest against the government and few voted "leave" for fun. The dawn of this has left those people horrified at the consequences and if there will ever be a re-run there will be a huge majority for remain.

 

[Rajma]

No word of a lie my partners parents said they "did it for their grandchildren". And what they thought they were doing was voting to keep more foreigners from coming into the country.

The simple fact of the matter is leave would never have won if the government had listened to people's concerns on immigration (rightly or wrongly) and enacted some of the measures that Paul quoted Gordon Brown on a few pages back.

Oh yes, the successive governments failed to work to currently available measures under the EU directives to tackle those immigration issues that people seem to be very vocal about (i.e. jobless and on benefits, etc.). In fact, remain campaign did an awful job of not bringing this up during the lead to referendum (did not want to expose themselves as total amateurs for not doing their job properly?).

 

[stevoc]

It was unthinkable that leave would win just like in the the Scottish indyref. Ther were both merely appeasement gestures to make the "rebels" and the SNP pipe down!

A lot of people didn't think it was that close and didn't vote, a lot voted in protest against the government and few voted "leave" for fun. The dawn of this has left those people horrified at the consequences and if there will ever be a re-run there will be a huge majority for remain.

Thats one of the craziest reasons to vote in a referendum, surely the time to protest vote was in the General Election a year earlier. There must have been loads of others who voted for stupid reasons as well.

I remember the day after the referendum watching the news and they were asking people which way they voted and why. One guy said he voted leave because it was time for a change as he was sick of the Tories. Looked a bit puzzled when the reporter explained it wasn't a general election and the Tories will still be in Government.