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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Massive Spanner said:
Full article here:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1113/1010667-brexit-deal/

Looks like it involves the UK basically staying in the customs union (no surprises), so, yeah, the DUP will reject it, back to square one.
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not so sure the DUP are the critical votes...
they will almost certainly vote against it
probably a hard core brexit mob will might be as low as 20 might be as high as 50

but potentially May could only need around 30 votes to get her through... there are I think 12 liberal MP's and its not inconceivable quite a few of those may vote for a deal rather than no deal

that would possibly leave around 20 votes to find and I could I see 20 labour MP's defying the whip to vote for a deal - im not sure but it sounds possible
 
sun_tzu said:
not so sure the DUP are the critical votes...
they will almost certainly vote against it
probably a hard core brexit mob will might be as low as 20 might be as high as 50

but potentially May could only need around 30 votes to get her through... there are I think 12 liberal MP's and its not inconceivable quite a few of those may vote for a deal rather than no deal

that would possibly leave around 20 votes to find and I could I see 20 labour MP's defying the whip to vote for a deal - im not sure but it sounds possible
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I think it all depends on what happens if parliament votes down the deal. If it's an automatic hard Brexit then the parliamentary maths will be entirely different from if it's 'well maybe we stay in'.

It's a legal question we don't have the answer to yet.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
I think it all depends on what happens if parliament votes down the deal. If it's an automatic hard Brexit then the parliamentary maths will be entirely different from if it's 'well maybe we stay in'.

It's a legal question we don't have the answer to yet.
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certainly the intention has been set out that it will be a take it or leave it vote (mays deal or no deal)- on or around 20th Decemember before parliament stops for xmas... no amendments will be allowed to the bill is what they have said
 
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sun_tzu said:
not so sure the DUP are the critical votes...
they will almost certainly vote against it
probably a hard core brexit mob will might be as low as 20 might be as high as 50

but potentially May could only need around 30 votes to get her through... there are I think 12 liberal MP's and its not inconceivable quite a few of those may vote for a deal rather than no deal

that would possibly leave around 20 votes to find and I could I see 20 labour MP's defying the whip to vote for a deal - im not sure but it sounds possible
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It's less about whether May can get it through parliament overall, and more about what her own side think. If the hardliner Tories and DUP want to collapse her government I suspect opposition parties will join in with them doing so.
 
This is what Boris Johnson said tonight about Theresa May’s Brexitdeal.

This has been ‘Chronicle of a Death Foretold’ for some months. We are going to stay in the customs union, we are going to stay in large parts of the single market.

It’s vassal state stuff as for the first time in 1,000 years this parliament will not have a say over the laws that govern this country.

It is utterly unacceptable to anybody who believes in democracy ...

For the first time since partition, Dublin would have more say in some aspects of the governing of Northern Ireland than London. So I don’t see how you can support from a democratic point of view.

Jeremy Corbyn has put out this statement

We will look at the details of what has been agreed when they are available. But from what we know of the shambolic handling of these negotiations, this is unlikely to be a good deal for the country.

Labour has been clear from the beginning that we need a deal to support jobs and the economy - and that guarantees standards and protections. If this deal doesn’t meet our six tests and work for the whole country, then we will vote against it

Square One?
 
Cheesy said:
It's less about whether May can get it through parliament overall, and more about what her own side think. If the hardliner Tories and DUP want to collapse her government I suspect opposition parties will join in with them doing so.
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There is that possibility - though if they really wanted to do it then the budget was the most obvious target...
That said if you really wanted a hard brexit there is a timeline that works well if you loose the vote on the brexit bill then parliament it will likley be the last bill before Xmas
so once parliament reforms if they vote her down on any old thing in January it then triggers a vote of confidence within 2 weeks... this probably puts us late jan / early feb
If may is defeted it triggers a leadership election in the conservative party (not a general election)... this took around 2 months last time - even an accelerated one would likely take 4 to 6 weeks
which takes us probably to early march with most probably a brexiteer winning the conservative election saying mays deal isn't acceptable we come out in 2 weeks with no deal.

It is a possibility but I cant help but think that the likley candidates (mogg, Davies, johnson) would rather let her leave with a deal then moan about it and use it as a means to oust her and take control of what really matters - i.e. the negotiations of the final deal
 
Paul the Wolf said:
This is what Boris Johnson said tonight about Theresa May’s Brexitdeal.

This has been ‘Chronicle of a Death Foretold’ for some months. We are going to stay in the customs union, we are going to stay in large parts of the single market.

It’s vassal state stuff as for the first time in 1,000 years this parliament will not have a say over the laws that govern this country.

It is utterly unacceptable to anybody who believes in democracy ...

For the first time since partition, Dublin would have more say in some aspects of the governing of Northern Ireland than London. So I don’t see how you can support from a democratic point of view.

Jeremy Corbyn has put out this statement

We will look at the details of what has been agreed when they are available. But from what we know of the shambolic handling of these negotiations, this is unlikely to be a good deal for the country.

Labour has been clear from the beginning that we need a deal to support jobs and the economy - and that guarantees standards and protections. If this deal doesn’t meet our six tests and work for the whole country, then we will vote against it

Square One?
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It has been one step forward and two steps back. I use the term forwards loosely by the way.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
This has been ‘Chronicle of a Death Foretold’ for some months. We are going to stay in the customs union, we are going to stay in large parts of the single market.

It’s vassal state stuff as for the first time in 1,000 years this parliament will not have a say over the laws that govern this country.
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That’s typical Boris Johnson that you quote - a superfluous literary reference to show off, the hypocrisy of using the vassal state argument (the old lie of Eurosceptics which will now become true thanks to their machinations) and the complete failure to provide any constructive alternative solution.
 
MoskvaRed said:
That’s typical Boris Johnson that you quote - a superfluous literary reference to show off, the hypocrisy of using the vassal state argument (the old lie of Eurosceptics which will now become true thanks to their machinations) and the complete failure to provide any constructive alternative solution.
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All without actually having read the agreement he's criticising.
 
So a question for the British posters on here (almost all Remainers) - would you prefer that May’s deal gets approved or would you want it voted down? Accept the certainty of leaving but with the assurance of short term stability or take the risk on political deadlock which could result in the chaos of crashing out with no deal but does leave open the possibility that parliament might throw this intractable mess back to a second referendum?
 
MoskvaRed said:
So a question for the British posters on here (almost all Remainers) - would you prefer that May’s deal gets approved or would you want it voted down? Accept the certainty of leaving but with the assurance of short term stability or take the risk on political deadlock which could result in the chaos of crashing out with no deal but does leave open the possibility that parliament might throw this intractable mess back to a second referendum?
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The latter. (Neither options are that palatable though)
 
MoskvaRed said:
So a question for the British posters on here (almost all Remainers) - would you prefer that May’s deal gets approved or would you want it voted down? Accept the certainty of leaving but with the assurance of short term stability or take the risk on political deadlock which could result in the chaos of crashing out with no deal but does leave open the possibility that parliament might throw this intractable mess back to a second referendum?
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DEADLOCK! DEADLOCK! DEADLOCK!
 
MoskvaRed said:
So a question for the British posters on here (almost all Remainers) - would you prefer that May’s deal gets approved or would you want it voted down? Accept the certainty of leaving but with the assurance of short term stability or take the risk on political deadlock which could result in the chaos of crashing out with no deal but does leave open the possibility that parliament might throw this intractable mess back to a second referendum?
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I'd rather have the deal, because once the March 29 deadline passes I think there may be some subtle softening of positions. If the prospect of no deal could guarantee a second referendum, I'd obviously choose that - but I don't think it would, and any deal is better than no deal (in my opinion).
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Pretty sure her days are numbered regardless.
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I dunno, she seems to continually cling on irrespective of what happens around her. The main job remains a bit of a poisoned chalice and so I still struggle to see who wants to actually step up to the plate. Especially when the candidates on show are so incredibly uninspiring.
 
Penna said:
I'd rather have the deal, because once the March 29 deadline passes I think there may be some subtle softening of positions. If the prospect of no deal could guarantee a second referendum, I'd obviously choose that - but I don't think it would, and any deal is better than no deal (in my opinion).
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It’s a horrible dilemma. I’d be tempted to gamble in the hope of a second referendum but neither of the options involve winning - you either accept a loss now or take a huge risk in the hope of merely returning to the status quo. How a G7 and UN security council permanent member state ended up in this situation is a catastrophic failure of leadership.
 
The leader of the influential ERG, Jacob Rees Mogg, describes the deal as a “middle muddle fiddle fuddle” that is doomed from the start.

“There is a risk we are in 1846 territory,” he tells Channel 4 News, referring to the 19th century split in the Conservative Party over the corn laws.

JRM, home at last.
 
Personally, I'm amazed to see that Boris Johnson, a man who could find a way to choke on his own elbow, is appalled, notwithstanding that he was one of the main people to have put the fox in the hen house.
 
I do worry how (if it does happen, and I think it will) another referendum/People's Vote will alter the political make-up of our country. I can't help but feel it would perhaps act as a catalyst for a rise in support for more right-wing politics if a new vote was granted and the country voted to remain. Law of unintended consequences and all that.

A part of me thinks it's just better to leave and deal with the fall out, however bad it may be.

The whole thing is just a gigantic mess. Surely history will judge Cameron as the worst PM in modern history, if it doesn't already. A part of me actually empathises with May as she literally has an impossible job.
 
esmufc07 said:
A part of me actually empathises with May as she literally has an impossible job.
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I think the best anybody could hope for as PM through this mess is to still be there (not that anybody else would want it as it would essentially be a job for 8 months as it stands). Her choice was to go for a hard Brexit and split the cabinet, a soft Brexit and split the cabinet or somewhere in-between and split the cabinet. Labour wouldn't support any of the options.
 
Cheesy said:
I dunno, she seems to continually cling on irrespective of what happens around her. The main job remains a bit of a poisoned chalice and so I still struggle to see who wants to actually step up to the plate. Especially when the candidates on show are so incredibly uninspiring.
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Something has to give soon.
 
esmufc07 said:
I do worry how (if it does happen, and I think it will) another referendum/People's Vote will alter the political make-up of our country. I can't help but feel it would perhaps act as a catalyst for a rise in support for more right-wing politics if a new vote was granted and the country voted to remain. Law of unintended consequences and all that.

A part of me thinks it's just better to leave and deal with the fall out, however bad it may be.

The whole thing is just a gigantic mess. Surely history will judge Cameron as the worst PM in modern history, if it doesn't already. A part of me actually empathises with May as she literally has an impossible job.
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Things would probably get ugly if a second referendum voted for remain but things would also get ugly in the economic downturn caused by Brexit. There are no good options, only least worst. I agree with you on Cameron and May. You’d always assign the most blame to the arsonist rather than the person displaying a lack of imagination in putting out the fire.
 
Can someone do me good turn and explain the 3 biggest things that Brexit is going to impact?

And also, is there any chance at all that it’ll just be forgotten about and people will pretend it never happened?
 
MoskvaRed said:
So a question for the British posters on here (almost all Remainers) - would you prefer that May’s deal gets approved or would you want it voted down? Accept the certainty of leaving but with the assurance of short term stability or take the risk on political deadlock which could result in the chaos of crashing out with no deal but does leave open the possibility that parliament might throw this intractable mess back to a second referendum?
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I'd prefer Mays deal gets approved 100%
 
As the DUP are so unhappy won't they withdraw their supply and confidence agreement? I'd be surprised if they don't, so will the Tories continue as a minority government, or is a general election a certainty?
 
I voted remain but I tend to agree with the idea that we have to leave properly now.

We are a democracy and with that comes the responsibility to honour even bad decisions.

We have to be able to self destruct....will it cripple a generation? Probably! and then the people who wanted that can be castrated by history as far I’m concerned. I can’t bear the idea of the Tory backbencher bleating on about the patriotic perfect brexit anymore.
 
rpitchfo said:
I voted remain but I tend to agree with the idea that we have to leave properly now.

We are a democracy and with that comes the responsibility to honour even bad decisions.

We have to be able to self destruct....will it cripple a generation? Probably! and then the people who wanted that can be castrated by history as far I’m concerned. I can’t bear the idea of the Tory backbencher bleating on about the patriotic perfect brexit anymore.
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What do you mean by leave properly?
 
711 said:
As the DUP are so unhappy won't they withdraw their supply and confidence agreement? I'd be surprised if they don't, so will the Tories continue as a minority government, or is a general election a certainty?
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Almost certain no general election
Possibly enough labour MP's hate Corbyn more than the brexiteers hate may (and she gets The Deal through)
And for certain the dup hate Corbyn more than they hate may
More likley they try to take may down but that only triggers a conservative leadership election most likley won by a eurosceptic such as Johnson Davies or mogg... But no requirement for a general election

Dup will probably support the new leader based on a hard brexit
 
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esmufc07 said:
I do worry how (if it does happen, and I think it will) another referendum/People's Vote will alter the political make-up of our country. I can't help but feel it would perhaps act as a catalyst for a rise in support for more right-wing politics if a new vote was granted and the country voted to remain. Law of unintended consequences and all that.

A part of me thinks it's just better to leave and deal with the fall out, however bad it may be.

The whole thing is just a gigantic mess. Surely history will judge Cameron as the worst PM in modern history, if it doesn't already. A part of me actually empathises with May as she literally has an impossible job.
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Can Cameron be blamed for people being stupid enough to vote leave ?

Yes he should never have given the option and clearly got carried away with Scotland vote but I would put more blame on Farage and his racial scaremongering as well as Boris who knew voting leave would be a disaster but used it in a desperate attempt to grab power at any cost .

They and the idiots who listened to their lies are the people to blame the most here

I fact I would blame Ed Miliband for stabbing his own brother in the back as none of this would ever have happened otherwise
 
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