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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Robert Peston
Chequers, as the journalist Chris Deerin has pointed out, goes pop.

Which wry and funny as it is for those of us of a certain age will not be cheering up Theresa May.

Because the EU summit in Salzburg has been a personal catastrophe for her.

And worse than that, it was an avoidable catastrophe.

Because every EU expert bar those she employs in Whitehall has been saying very loudly for weeks that the trade and commercial proposal in her Chequers Brexit plan would never win favour among the EU 27.

So the question is why she waited to have that so publicly and humiliatingly stated by the EU's president Donald Tusk today, rather than quietly acquiring some wriggle room over recent days.

Also, she's rejected the EU's proposal to keep the Northern Ireland border with the Republic open - because in her estimation it would undermine the integrity of the UK - but won't tell them what her revised proposal may be, though she insists she has one.

Neither she nor EU leaders want a "hard" no-deal Brexit.

But probably the only way for her to avoid it is to eat the humblest of humble pies and jog back to the deal her departed Brexit secretary, David Davis, naively thought he had been mandated to negotiate - a more conventional free trade agreement based on Canada's deal with the UK.

And maybe she could get that through the House of Commons, if her Remainer MPs were terrified into believing that the alternative to backing it would be a general election - which they assume Corbyn would win (whatever opinion polls may indicate).

That said, Canada still wouldn't solve the Irish border conundrum.

Which means that the UK may not be in a position to sign a withdrawal agreement - and that in turn means a no-deal Brexit remains a live possibility, even a probability.

A couple of things follow from all of this:

1) May will emerge as unique in the annals of history if she survives as PM much longer in the face of setbacks on this scale;

2) if all conventional roads lead to a hard no-deal Brexit, the notion of Parliament exerting control and forcing another referendum on us would begin to look not wholly fanciful.

add this to the end of the blog you've already published please

PS at 4.45pm

Brussels officials say that Barnier, Juncker and Tusk wanted to help May turn Salzburg into a stepping stone towards a deal, rather than an impasse.

"We were so ready to help" says one.

But she and her officials made two serious miscalculations, they say:

1) they say she was too aggressive, both in her article setting out what she wants in the German newspaper Die Welt, and at last night's dinner;

2) she was naive in thinking she could appeal above the heads of Barnier, Juncker and Tusk to EU leaders, when those leaders have more pressing issues on their plates and delegated the substance of talks to Barnier for a good reason.

Which means May has driven Brexit talks into a dark cul de sac, and goodness alone knows how she'll get her and the UK out of it,
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https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2172510166407050/
 
Hargreaves Lansdown's UK retail investor confidence survey is at its all-time low. The data series started in 1995, so sentiment is worse than at any point during the dotcom crash or the financial crisis. There aint much faith in Brexit. Perverse thing is the FTSE 100 could well shoot up after we crash out, cos sterling will fall so much.

https://www.ft.com/content/ac3177aa-bc04-11e8-8274-55b72926558f
 


I have to admit that I didn't expect someone to actually say it. And before someone interpret that sentence the wrong way, I don't really like his tone.
 
Jippy said:
Hargreaves Lansdown's UK retail investor confidence survey is at its all-time low. The data series started in 1995, so sentiment is worse than at any point during the dotcom crash or the financial crisis. There aint much faith in Brexit. Perverse thing is the FTSE 100 could well shoot up after we crash out, cos sterling will fall so much.

https://www.ft.com/content/ac3177aa-bc04-11e8-8274-55b72926558f
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Hard Brexit will cause the pound to fall and anyone's international assets will rise, and probably the FTSE100 too, as you say. I'm considering bunging some in the FTSE350 for balance, just to have something to rise if a miraculous deal is reached and the pound goes up.
 
JPRouve said:


I have to admit that I didn't expect someone to actually say it. And before someone interpret that sentence the wrong way, I don't really like his tone.
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I do. If British politics wasn't full of limp lettuces they wouldn't be in the mess they are.

No-one challenges anything, they're all sleepwalking.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I do. If British politics wasn't full of limp lettuces they wouldn't be in the mess they are.

No-one challenges anything, they're all sleepwalking.
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Yeah but I don't really like his face, he looks and sounds like a twat. I don't disagree with the substance but only someone with zero decorum would say it that way.
 
JPRouve said:
Yeah but I don't really like his face, he looks and sounds like a twat. I don't disagree with the substance but only someone with zero decorum would say it that way.
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Yes but everyone has been too polite about all this. If you watch a debate on UK TV about Brexit between a pro brexit person and an anti brexit person, one will say something, the other will say something and then the presenter says we've run out of time and they share a little joke. That's the level of debate and the only ones shouting are people like Farage.
 
JPRouve said:


I have to admit that I didn't expect someone to actually say it. And before someone interpret that sentence the wrong way, I don't really like his tone.
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Glad someone has the guts to call a spade a spade. After decades of name calling the liars can go do one with their sensitivity.
 
Member 5225 said:
The EU doesn’t need us, we need them so much more....our delusion is absurd, oh wait:

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It's just common sense really. Each of the 27 countries which form the EU are going to face trading restrictions with 1 country (about 60 million people). We are going to face trading restrictions 27 countries (about 500 million people). It's pretty obvious that we have more to lose.
 
As expected it's all going to come down to the Irish border and worryingly the UK appear to continue to try and wriggle out of what is the only solution - northern Ireland staying in common market. It is inevitable and is also by far the best result for Northern Ireland.
 
Stanley Road said:
Yes, only Brexiters insult foreigners. You need to travel a bit more mate.
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What has that got to do with anything being discussed? The comment was simply demonstrsting that there was no attempt to answer - just a default respone which is to insult foreigners.

We are sleepwalking to disaster. The Tories refuse to even contemplate the porential scale of the feck up or the lies that lead to it. They simply parrot "will of the people" despite that will having changed.
 
Wibble said:
What has that got to do with anything being discussed? The comment was simply demonstrsting that there was no attempt to answer - just a default respone which is to insult foreigners.

We are sleepwalking to disaster. The Tories refuse to even contemplate the porential scale of the feck up or the lies that lead to it. They simply parrot "will of the people" despite that will having changed.
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What’s the split now? It’s got to be like 65/35 in favour of remain?

We’ll see how happy people are with a no deal when we’re selling the NHS for a trade deal with Trump.
 
Wibble said:
What has that got to do with anything being discussed? The comment was simply demonstrsting that there was no attempt to answer - just a default respone which is to insult foreigners.

We are sleepwalking to disaster. The Tories refuse to even contemplate the porential scale of the feck up or the lies that lead to it. They simply parrot "will of the people" despite that will having changed.
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The comment was fair.

Sleepwalking to disaster is fair if you apply to both sides, i would not turn up for further meetings. I dont see any planning for no deal in nl. Its all bollox.
 
Klopper76 said:
What’s the split now? It’s got to be like 65/35 in favour of remain?

We’ll see how happy people are with a no deal when we’re selling the NHS for a trade deal with Trump.
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What on earth are you basing your 65/35 in favour of Remain on?! :lol:
 
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