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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Am I right in saying that no deal would result in a hard border at Northern Ireland and therefore not upholding the Good Friday agreement and therefore starting negotiations on deals with the rest of the world while just after failing to uphold their end of an internationally binding deal.

Sorry for bringing the border issue up again
Yeah they would virtually tear up the good Friday agreement against the wishes of the people of Northern Ireland.
 
I was more suggesting y'all remember the troubles in general than you remember border issues. I don't think I'm being any more doom-mongering than most in thinking a rise in violence would be an inevitable result of something that ruins the GFA.

It feels like we barely care over here, beyond those very politically minded. Honestly, I live like four miles from the hotel in Brighton where the IRA nearly killed Thatcher and we just don't talk about Northern Ireland at all.
Why would you care? To most Britons NI is a just a part of a little island to the west of you that costs the UK billions to maintain with nothing in return. Actually I'm not even sure most English people know enough about NI to even form that opinion.
 
I didn't live through the troubles myself but my parents did.

Honestly, nobody really knows. I think it's a common misconception that there was ever actually a "hard border" in Ireland. There wasn't, not like this at least. Since the CTA has existed and then IE and the UK entered the EU we have always had no need for customs checks on our border. The border during the troubles was mainly because of the violence and division at the time. We have never actually had one enforced due to customs laws and movement laws and that's the scary thing, it's a complete unknown.
We had to stop our cars at border check points and get searched to get over the border. I remember it well. Was for different reasons if course but the symbolism if it is very important and it would cause utter chaos and set the country back 20 years.
 
How does that not make sense . Yes trade deals like any other country but are they going to join EFTA or the EEA or be accepted therein?

It doesn't make sense, because nothing is eternal in politics. Currently there is a very strong anti-EU sentiment stirred up in the UK with many vocal MPs behind it. And on the EU side, they don't want to be seen as offering the UK a better deal outside than it has inside. In time tones will soften, from both sides. It was never gonna happen within the 2 year time-frame and before Brexit is delivered.

I personally expect the UK to end up in the EEA via the EFTA. But I may be proven wrong on this, of course. The UK might simply end up with a Canada-style deal of no tariffs on many (but not all) goods. I just think the deal will evolve over time. Nothing is finite.
 
I was more suggesting y'all remember the troubles in general than you remember border issues. I don't think I'm being any more doom-mongering than most in thinking a rise in violence would be an inevitable result of something that ruins the GFA.

It feels like we barely care over here, beyond those very politically minded. Honestly, I live like four miles from the hotel in Brighton where the IRA nearly killed Thatcher and we just don't talk about Northern Ireland at all.
Only this week there has been a worrying increase in violence and tension here with the 'new IRA' shooting at police and throwing explosives at Gerry Adams and other senior republicans houses. They are trying to stir shit up again and the utter mess of BREXIT will feed them when the jobs go away. It's starting already.
 
We had to stop our cars at border check points and get searched to get over the border. I remember it well. Was for different reasons if course but the symbolism if it is very important and it would cause utter chaos and set the country back 20 years.
Yep, we had to hide our shopping when coming out of Derry back in the day.
Back when punt was king and Derry saved us a fortune.
 
It doesn't make sense, because nothing is eternal in politics. Currently there is a very strong anti-EU sentiment stirred up in the UK with many vocal MPs behind it. And on the EU side, they don't want to be seen as offering the UK a better deal outside than it has inside. In time tones will soften, from both sides. It was never gonna happen within the 2 year time-frame and before Brexit is delivered.

I personally expect the UK to end up in the EEA via the EFTA. But I may be proven wrong on this, of course. The UK might simply end up with a Canada-style deal of no tariffs on many (but not all) goods. I just think the deal will evolve over time. Nothing is finite.

I agree with a lot of what you've been saying overall but once the UK have left, the EU are still not going to change their rules or soften. The UK will get a Canada style deal probably but what's good about that when you've pissed off your biggest customer and made trading goods and services that was easy so complicated and then trying to suck up to a country that is also pissing off the EU thinking they've got a special relationship whereas that special relationship has always only worked one way.

Time, eventually will change things but not that quickly.
The damage done to the UK in the meantime will also dictate what happens in the future.
 
We had to stop our cars at border check points and get searched to get over the border. I remember it well. Was for different reasons if course but the symbolism if it is very important and it would cause utter chaos and set the country back 20 years.

I once went out with a girl who lived in Downpatrick and was on my way to stay at her family home for the first time when I ended up driving up right to the front gate of an army base, thinking it was a border check-point. In a car with Irish plates. Not my finest hour.
 
I once went out with a girl who lived in Downpatrick and was on my way to stay at her family home for the first time when I ended up driving up right to the front gate of an army base, thinking it was a border check-point. In a car with Irish plates. Not my finest hour.
Yikes :lol:

That's about as bad as the time I accidentally drove into a police station (through the gates behind an unmarked police car) cops came running out and I almost got shot as they thought I had a bomb. Not great!
 
On a personal note this just reinforces the utter lack of giving a shit that this government have to the impact on Northern Ireland. The DUP in supporting this are a fecking disgrace. They have voted to implement a hard border essentially. Absolute pack of turds.

Im hearing some rumblings of discontent from bandit country already :(
 
In the long run though this will hasten a United Ireland.
I think that's likely yeah. In fact it's hastened the brake up of the UK tbh as Scotland didn't vote for this either and I suspect all this will be a boon to nationalists throughout the country.
 
I think that's likely yeah. In fact it's hastened the brake up of the UK tbh as Scotland didn't vote for this either and I suspect all this will be a boon to nationalists throughout the country.
The Brightonian independence movement is certainly growing.
 
Unilaterally drop all import tariffs.

It doesn't look like anything to me. Today most people would react like Bernard encountering something he couldn't comprehend. But like Bernard, we need to quickly learn what it means, and more importantly, what happens next.

There exists a fanatical section of the right. Not bad, but fanatical nonetheless. They believe that the way the world conducts free trade is wrong. They believe that there exists a way to move the poorest of this world out of poverty, whilst making the richest even richer. It's a simple idea, tried in only a few places, on only a few occasions, but theoretically, they say, the idea is economically sound. And the idea, is this.

Don't negotiate free trade deals at all. Instead, drop all import tariffs completely. And let the rest of the world do what they may.

That benefits those working in a sweatshop in India as, suddenly, there is less tax on the shirts they make. Maybe they'll make a few extra pence per day on their toils. It benefits those working in a Chinese steel foundry as, suddenly, their steel is undercutting that made in the UK. It benefits the service sectors of the UK economy as, suddenly, goods are flooding the UK market made cheaply from around the world. On the other hand, it's catastrophic for the UK manufacturing sector as there is little advantage (other than the cheaper price of steel) to manufacturing goods in the UK, where there is no free trade agreement with the rest of the West (and therefore tariffs on exports), compared to manufacturing goods in other countries that do. Still, the fanatics say, economically it's theoretically advantageous to just unilaterally cut import tariffs altogether, much in the same way that lowering tax is good for the economy.

Jacon Rees Mogg and Dan Hannan are it's fiercest proponents, and "Global Britain" could be thought of as a right-wing code for this idea. Boris, whilst not a Unilateral-drop-tariffist isn't adverse to big ideas. Especially big ideas that can propel his career forward. Especially fantastical big ideas with little chance of going ahead that can propel his career forward quickly, and he can bin at a later date.

There is one major problem for the Unilaterists, however. Any sort of customs deal with the EU makes it impossible for the Unilateral tariff drop to take place. The UK can't accept anything and everything into her borders for free, if shes agreed to a common rule-book of goods with the EU. (Think U.S eggs). And the UK can't accept cheap Chinese steel if she has an open border with Ireland.

For this no-tariff dream to continue, they need to crush soft brexit, because a soft brexit is the end to their dream. That is why they sometimes say things like "it would be better to stay in the EU that have this deal" because within the EU, there is a chance to convince the EU of moving down this path, but with soft brexit, we are a rule taker, and cannot take the path at all.

The Unilaterists want to perform a giant experiment with the UK economy, but to do that they have to first perform an even bigger experiment with the UK economy. They need to crash us out of the EU with no customs union and preferably no trade deal, and then from there, can argue the only solution left is the radical one.

If they can't do that, a trade deal with the EU isn't the end of the dream, but a customs agreement, is.

They are fanatics. Fantasists. Over-educated theorists with no working class roots.

They also might be right. But it's a big gamble to find out.

Edit - Spelling and Grammar. It's late.
 
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Yep but theres a lot of grief to be had before that. Personally I am concerned for my US born wife and son,
both have Irish passports but we all live in the North. Im waiting to see if this will be affected.

It was a jest. A throwback to the Ibrahimovic ACL injury.
 
:lol:
What happens if it was a tie? Speaker?
If the vote is tied - which is very unusual - in the Commons the Speaker has the casting vote. The Speaker casts his vote according to what was done in similar circumstances in the past. Where possible the issue should remain open for further discussion and no final decision should be made by a casting vote.

In the Lords, the Lord Speaker does not have a casting vote. Instead, the tied vote is resolved according to established rules (called the Standing Orders).
 
On a personal note this just reinforces the utter lack of giving a shit that this government have to the impact on Northern Ireland. The DUP in supporting this are a fecking disgrace. They have voted to implement a hard border essentially. Absolute pack of turds.

Agree on both counts the lack of fecks given by the British Government about NI is depressing.

The DUP are a disgrace they know a hard border is bad for NI but i think secretly (or maybe not so secretly) they all want it. They must think it makes the possibility of a United Ireland less likely.

Am I right in saying that no deal would result in a hard border at Northern Ireland and therefore not upholding the Good Friday agreement and therefore starting negotiations on deals with the rest of the world while just after failing to uphold their end of an internationally binding deal.

Sorry for bringing the border issue up again

Yeah it won't look clever will it? Basically showing the world they will break deals if it suits them. Not to mention potentially destabilizing an area enjoying it's longest run of relative peace for decades.