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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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How long does it take to train someone to make a cappuccino? Pour a beer? Make hotel beds?
By your simplistic process anyone unemployed would be given a job as brain surgeon ahead of a skilled migrant.

Likewise an unemployed brain surgeon would be expected to fill a barrista role on the oher side of the country ahead of a migrant.
 
On top of the fact that not all unemployed people can do all jobs, there's also the fact that not all unemployed people want to do all jobs. It might be a very small percentage of the population but there's always the people who'd rather be on the dole than do menial jobs for little money. Or people who's choice is forced by logic, like single mothers of little-to-none job qualifications that are better off being at home with kids than paying child minders or day care, while they go out to do menial jobs.

Then there's also the people in transition. If I lose my job in IT, I'd rather spend 2-3 months on the dole while I'm preparing for/attending interviews and training myself in the new tech that's in high demand. Much much better investment of my time in the long term than going at McDonald's to work as a burger flipper for 3 months. Something that has shitty pay, I can't really put in my CV and will also restrict my availability for interviews.

There'll always be a percentage of unemployed people and they'll always be some sectors with shortage. We've have a had shortage of medical staff (importing from abroad) for a couple of decades at least.
Fully agree.
 
Anyone who wants an end to freedom of movement should have to come up with a viable solution to the NI border issue. Until there is one (there isn't going to be) we inherently can't end freedom of movement within the UK unless NI wish to secede or unite with Ireland.

The politicians are only advocating ending it because they know its all that is left to keep the public on their side.
 
The politicians are only advocating ending it because they know its all that is left to keep the public on their side.

Pretty much.

Funny thing is...much as I don't think immigration is as pressing a problem as others would argue, I can sort of sympathise with the complaints of the right on this one. Yes, they're telling some fairly blatant lies, in that we do currently have control over non-EU migration and there are more balances available than they'd admit to the EU's freedom of movement, but I can have a vague hint of sympathy with the fact that, to an extent, Britain is very limited in how it controls EU migration.

But, at the same time, my sympathy has mostly fallen away due to the fact that it's clear those who advocate an end to freedom of movement just haven't thought out their position logically in terms of how it'll work economically and socially. Yes, they may want that to happen, but wanting something to work politically isn't an automatic guarantor of it happening...often sacrifices need to be made, and if we want to end freedom of movement we'd need to take an economic hit by severing ties with the EU, while risking increased violence in NI. Conditions which I'd say nullify any of the supposed benefits.
 
Pretty much.

Funny thing is...much as I don't think immigration is as pressing a problem as others would argue, I can sort of sympathise with the complaints of the right on this one. Yes, they're telling some fairly blatant lies, in that we do currently have control over non-EU migration and there are more balances available than they'd admit to the EU's freedom of movement, but I can have a vague hint of sympathy with the fact that, to an extent, Britain is very limited in how it controls EU migration.

But, at the same time, my sympathy has mostly fallen away due to the fact that it's clear those who advocate an end to freedom of movement just haven't thought out their position logically in terms of how it'll work economically and socially. Yes, they may want that to happen, but wanting something to work politically isn't an automatic guarantor of it happening...often sacrifices need to be made, and if we want to end freedom of movement we'd need to take an economic hit by severing ties with the EU, while risking increased violence in NI. Conditions which I'd say nullify any of the supposed benefits.

The problem with the sympathy is that it should end when you take into account that it's a choice made by national politicians, it's not as if they were forced to join agreements or unions.
 
Well while there is unemployment there should be no need to recruit from outside, how is that not glaringly obvious ?

Because it is untrue.

We don't have zero unemployment here in Australia at 5.6% just as there is 4.1% unemployment in the UK plus the 5-10% hidden unemployment due to government regulations designed to drive people of unemployment payments to make the figures look better.

In both countries there are jobs that locals often won't touch either due to the pay, the conditions or the location. Either you raise the minimum wage considerably or you get people from other countries in to do these jobs.
 
Because it is untrue.

We don't have zero unemployment here in Australia at 5.6% just as there is 4.1% unemployment in the UK plus the 5-10% hidden unemployment due to government regulations designed to drive people of unemployment payments to make the figures look better.

In both countries there are jobs that locals often won't touch either due to the pay, the conditions or the location. Either you raise the minimum wage considerably or you get people from other countries in to do these jobs.

This for me is key. In France for example unemployment is fairly high but there is a lot of available jobs, the problem is that a lot of these jobs are in Iles-De France, basically Paris, and the wages make it near impossible for someone that is single and in province to move to Paris and find a place to live decently.
 
Anyone who wants an end to freedom of movement should have to come up with a viable solution to the NI border issue. Until there is one (there isn't going to be) we inherently can't end freedom of movement within the UK unless NI wish to secede or unite with Ireland.

Just because a person can freely walk from ROI to NI without checks, doesn't mean they'll be able to legally work in NI, much less get to mainland UK (unless they're a good swimmer).

So I don't really see the big problem here. Unless we are worried that a bunch of illegal immigrants are going to swamp NI, and let me tell you I've been to NI, many times, and I don't think illegal immigration from the south is something they need to worry about. :D

Who gives a monkeys if there is no hard border between NI and ROI ?

PS I would be happy for freedom of movement to remain.
 
How exactly?

We have the right to refuse anyone entry to be UK, EU national or otherwise on the grounds of public policy, safety or health.

We have a physical barrier with the rest of the world due to being an Island surrounded by water.

We choose not to do so because it benefits us to let people in. Those in power know this and it won't change post-Brexit.
 
Just because a person can freely walk from ROI to NI without checks, doesn't mean they'll be able to legally work in NI, much less get to mainland UK (unless they're a good swimmer).

So I don't really see the big problem here. Unless we are worried that a bunch of illegal immigrants are going to swamp NI, and let me tell you I've been to NI, many times, and I don't think illegal immigration from the south is something they need to worry about. :D

Who gives a monkeys if there is no hard border between NI and ROI ?

PS I would be happy for freedom of movement to remain.
Other EU countries because by extension it is their border too?
 
Just because a person can freely walk from ROI to NI without checks, doesn't mean they'll be able to legally work in NI, much less get to mainland UK (unless they're a good swimmer).

So I don't really see the big problem here. Unless we are worried that a bunch of illegal immigrants are going to swamp NI, and let me tell you I've been to NI, many times, and I don't think illegal immigration from the south is something they need to worry about. :D

Who gives a monkeys if there is no hard border between NI and ROI ?

PS I would be happy for freedom of movement to remain.

The EU, and Ireland. If we intend on ending freedom of movement with the EU, why in the feck are they going to allow us to leave an open border with another EU nation?:lol:
 
The EU, and Ireland. If we intend on ending freedom of movement with the EU, why in the feck are they going to allow us to leave an open border with another EU nation?:lol:

:lol: Also surely you've in effect kept freedom of movement by doing that as your average European could just go to Ireland, go across the border to NI and hey presto they are now in the UK.
 
Just because a person can freely walk from ROI to NI without checks, doesn't mean they'll be able to legally work in NI, much less get to mainland UK (unless they're a good swimmer).

So I don't really see the big problem here. Unless we are worried that a bunch of illegal immigrants are going to swamp NI, and let me tell you I've been to NI, many times, and I don't think illegal immigration from the south is something they need to worry about. :D

Who gives a monkeys if there is no hard border between NI and ROI ?

PS I would be happy for freedom of movement to remain.

Probably never been to Ireland north or south at all
 
Other EU countries because by extension it is their border too?

The EU, and Ireland. If we intend on ending freedom of movement with the EU, why in the feck are they going to allow us to leave an open border with another EU nation?:lol:

But why do other EU countries care what happens between NI and ROI. It's not like you can cross that border, then pop over to France or Belgium or wherever.
 
But why do other EU countries care what happens between NI and ROI. It's not like you can cross that border, then pop over to France or Belgium or wherever.

Because Ireland is an EU nation. If someone is still allowed to freely move between NI and ROI, then they can then freely move between Ireland and the rest of the EU. There's no reason for the EU to allow us to have this loophole while simultaneously ending freedom of movement with them.
 
We have the right to refuse anyone entry to be UK, EU national or otherwise on the grounds of public policy, safety or health.

We have a physical barrier with the rest of the world due to being an Island surrounded by water.

We choose not to do so because it benefits us to let people in. Those in power know this and it won't change post-Brexit.

Nonsense, don't be obtuse.

The cases you describe hardly affect the volumes of migration we're talking about. The UK has a net migration of 300k people a year. The number of cases that fall into the "public safety" (mostly suspected terrorists, ex-convicts and the like) that you're talking about are maybe a handful of people per year.

You can call it "very limited control" if you will, but that's not what we mean by being in control. I'd suspect you knew that before I guess.
 
But why do other EU countries care what happens between NI and ROI. It's not like you can cross that border, then pop over to France or Belgium or wherever.

It's not about people, it's about goods and it's not about hard borders but controlled borders.
 
Nonsense, don't be obtuse.

The cases you describe hardly affect the volumes of migration we're talking about. The UK has a net migration of 300k people a year. The number of cases that fall into the "public safety", mostly suspected terrorist and the like, that you're talking about are about a handful of people a year.

You can call it "very limited control" if you will, but that's not what we mean by being in control.

Absolute twaddle you have had the ability to control your immigration fully. You know immigration is used as a prod to stir up the pleb population anytime an election or referendum needs to be won. Stop trying to gloss over that
 
Because Ireland is an EU nation. If someone is still allowed to freely move between NI and ROI, then they can then freely move between Ireland and the rest of the EU. There's no reason for the EU to allow us to have this loophole while simultaneously ending freedom of movement with them.

They can't though. It doesn't matter if I'm flying from Dublin to Paris or London to Paris, I'd still have to jump through the exact same hoops!
 
:lol: no way is she going to get this through its basically carrying on as normal in terms of the number 1 issue people voted for
 
It's not about people, it's about goods and it's not about hard borders but controlled borders.

Okay thanks, that makes a bit more sense, assuming there is going to be tariffs that is, otherwise it doesn't make a difference.
 
Okay thanks, that makes a bit more sense, assuming there is going to be tariffs that is, otherwise it doesn't make a difference.

It's not just about tariffs, it's about standards and regulations on top of tariffs and possible VAT issues.
 
There's actually already VAT issues, and fuel duty issues.

Yes, it's going to be far worse with the little difference that it will be with an outsider. Also we can't do it outside of an FTA-CU because we will have to grant that right to every other WTO members.
 
Absolute twaddle you have had the ability to control your immigration fully. You know immigration is used as a prod to stir up the pleb population anytime an election or referendum needs to be won. Stop trying to gloss over that

I'm not glossing at all over the that, you're probably referring at some other unspecified poster, I've been highlighting that if anything. But also, absolute twaddle back at you about Britain being able to control immigration fully. They don't. Linking me some article about illegal immigrants in the Calais camp does nothing.

UK has the ability to control non-EU immigration, always had. But not EU immigration. Admittedly, based on how non-EU immigration was handled there was never any genuine attempt by politicians to reduce immigration or net migration numbers. Those bothered by the levels of immigration (not me) should take the Government to task about that. But let's not pretend that there is any genuine control over EU immigration.

If I were to accurately describe the situation, I'd say Britain has partial control over its immigration. A large percentage of the public wants full control and a massive reduction of net migration. It might stupid, or irrational or whatever but it's a very strong current at the moment.
 
You don't know what you're talking about. Take it from someone who lives in Ireland.

So what is that thing I have always needed if I (a British citizen) was flying from Dublin to Paris? Oh, yes a passport!

And what's that thing that I am still going to need when flying from Dublin to Paris? Yep, a passport.

And what's that thing I'll need if I'm flying from London to Paris? Still a passport, bet you're catching on here!

So my freedom of movement won't be effected one bit by the fact I've managed to make it to Dublin with no checks.
 
So what is that thing I have always needed if I (a British citizen) was flying from Dublin to Paris? Oh, yes a passport!

And what's that thing that I am still going to need when flying from Dublin to Paris? Yep, a passport.

And what's that thing I'll need if I'm flying from London to Paris? Still a passport, bet you're catching on here!

So my freedom of movement won't be effected one bit by the fact I've managed to make it to Dublin with no checks.


Actually, you won't have the right to work or loan anything in Paris, without a visa.
 
So what is that thing I have always needed if I (a British citizen) was flying from Dublin to Paris? Oh, yes a passport!

And what's that thing that I am still going to need when flying from Dublin to Paris? Yep, a passport.

And what's that thing I'll need if I'm flying from London to Paris? Still a passport, bet you're catching on here!

So my freedom of movement won't be effected one bit by the fact I've managed to make it to Dublin with no checks.
Right but.. you don't need a passport to travel between Ireland and the UK because of the CTA.

If the UK crashes out of the EU then there's no more CTA, Ireland will likely join Schengen instead.

Plus there's the fact that there are different queues and rules at every EU airport for non EU citizens, so the UK will instead have to adhere to those from now on.

UK citizens will be subject to security and visa checks any time they travel to an EU country, Ireland included.
 
Actually, you won't have the right to work or loan anything in Paris, without a visa.

Maybe, maybe not, but whatever happens, the same is going to be true whether there is an open border with NI or not, which is what my charming Irish friend doesn't seem to understand.
 
Maybe, maybe not, but whatever happens, the same is going to be true whether there is an open border with NI or not, which is what my charming Irish friend doesn't seem to understand.

Open border and freedom of movement are two different things. Your previous post talked about freedom of movement.
 
Right but.. you don't need a passport to travel between Ireland and the UK because of the CTA.

If the UK crashes out of the EU then there's no more CTA, Ireland will likely join Schengen instead.

Plus there's the fact that there are different queues and rules at every EU airport for non EU citizens, so the UK will instead have to adhere to those from now on.

UK citizens will be subject to security and visa checks any time they travel to an EU country, Ireland included.

Between NI and ROI I don't need a passport to be precise. Between England and NI or ROI I've always needed a passport as long as I can remember. (Maybe in the olden days you only needed a driving license but I think that is long gone). But it's irrelevant anyway, because I'd still need a passport between Dublin and the rest of the EU.

And whatever queue I have to get in to get to other EU countries in the future, will be the same queue whether there is a hard border between NI & ROI or not.

So it makes no difference!
 
Open border and freedom of movement are two different things. Your previous post talked about freedom of movement.

My freedom of movement to other EU countries makes not a jot of difference whether there is a hard border between NI & ROI or not. I'm still either going to need a visa (or maybe not need a visa) but the hard border between NI & ROI won't be the determining factor in that.
 
Between NI and ROI I don't need a passport to be precise. Between England and NI or ROI I've always needed a passport as long as I can remember. (Maybe in the olden days you only needed a driving license but I think that is long gone). But it's irrelevant anyway, because I'd still need a passport between Dublin and the rest of the EU.

And whatever queue I have to get in to get to other EU countries in the future, will be the same queue whether there is a hard border between NI & ROI or not.

So it makes no difference!

If you're Northern Irish, you are (I believe) entitled to Irish citizenship, while also being British, and can move between NI and ROI freely. A hard Brexit would complicate that because you'd then have British citizens who're supposed to be entitled to move freely from a non-EU nation to an EU one even though we'd no longer be involved with FOM.
 
My freedom of movement to other EU countries makes not a jot of difference whether there is a hard border between NI & ROI or not. I'm still either going to need a visa (or maybe not need a visa) but the hard border between NI & ROI won't be the determining factor in that.

You are mixing things up and making statements that have no sense.
 
Nonsense, don't be obtuse.

The cases you describe hardly affect the volumes of migration we're talking about. The UK has a net migration of 300k people a year. The number of cases that fall into the "public safety" (mostly suspected terrorists, ex-convicts and the like) that you're talking about are maybe a handful of people per year.

You can call it "very limited control" if you will, but that's not what we mean by being in control. I'd suspect you knew that before I guess.

No, we can genuinely stop anyone and everyone at our border if we wanted to. We don't because of the cost involved, the organisation involved and the fact that immigrants are a net contributor to the economy and do many of the jobs we won't do.

http://ec.europa.eu/immigration/who...-why-are-there-eu-rules-and-national-rules_en

EU law states we can stop any EU national from coming in and our law in general states we can stop anyone else from outside the EU too. We're not part of the Schengen agreement and we can stop anyone at Calais if we want.

You just don't want to hear the truth that we've always had control of our borders and always been able to stop anyone from entering but we don't do it now and we won't do it in future. The rules are there, we just choose not to enforce them because of all the time and effort that would take.

Explain to me how you think we'll change once we're out of the EU please.