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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Yeah but here's the flipside. When that shortage materialises, maybe the hospitality industry will start having to pay higher salaries instead of pittance which will also increase retention and prevent the "churn" as they describe it. That's a positive for the average person.

When you have uncontrolled migration, due to a union of economies of hugely different scales, you get a large influx of workers across the whole spectrum. Both for employment sectors that need workers, and for sectors that don't. When the worker supply begins to exceed the demand, the salaries stop growing. Because you can always readily replace a departing worker with another one for same or lower salary. It creates a downward pressure on salaries. As logic dictates and also evidenced in Mediterranean economies of large unemployment rates.

For healthy economies though, you end up in a situation where businesses are flourishing because they take advantage of cheaper and readily available labour. The stock exchange is booming , dividends for rich shareholders go up and CEO pay packets rocket upwards. Meanwhile the average worker salary is staying put or even decreasing after adjusting for inflation. Now if the country is also caught up in a financial bind, having to cut back on services & benefits then you have a really nasty effect where the rich start getting much richer while the lower classes bear the brunt in every way possible by both salaries and public services being hit. This an incomplete (admittedly) summation of what has happened in the UK in the last 8 years.

For example I look at my industry which is I.T. and I compare UK salaries to US salaries. The combination of two effects in the US have created a shortage:
a) more expensive education not easily available to all. And..
b) strong restriction on migration

This has resulted in highly increased wages. When I last had a look, the average salary in the States is approximately 70% higher compared to the UK for Software Devs, while living costs are largely the same or comparable. My London-based company has an office in NY and when we talked to recruitment agents there with plans to staff an I.T. department the salary expenditure we were confronted with made us shelve the plans entirely and base everything in London.

Now from my POV I see what is happening in the US I.T. industry as a good thing for the workers. The fact some of these firms struggle to get good workers on the cheap, I would not give two fecks about. Especially when most Western countries have rather low corporate/dividend tax, so it's even better for the country if the revenue is transferred to the employees and taxed heavily rather than reported as company profit or dividends and taxed much less. So long as business growth is not too negatively impacted, the average Joe benefits from a minor shortage.

So yeah, there is a problem with uncontrolled migration (especially for an English speaking country) and I say that as a pro-European and remainer.

Interesting read.

What would be your answer to Stanley's question?

I'm in spain right now, all the catering jobs are done by Spaniards. In Holland they have only just started employing non dutch speakers in bars and cafs due to chronic shortage of available people. Why are all the catering jobs in the uk done by eastern europeans?
 
Interesting read.

What would be your answer to Stanley's question?

Well, they aren't. There's all sorts of Europeans working in the catering industry, I certainly don't see a prominence of Eastern Europeans, let alone an exclusivity. In fact I see more Southern Europeans than Eastern Europeans in all my local places in London. Which is interesting considering the number of migrants from Eastern Europe are many more than those Southern Europe by official numbers.

Eastern Europeans seem to dominate the construction work sector though in terms of foreign workers. Plenty of Brits working in construction too, since it pays much better than catering though it's arguably a lot harder work.

I'm not sure what the real question is though. Why are foreigners employed in the catering industry in the UK? Or why is not happening in Spain?
 
Well, they aren't.

That's a really good point!

I'm not sure what the real question is though. Why are foreigners employed in the catering industry in the UK? Or why is not happening in Spain?

Well I'm pretty sure it was just another version of 'why are those foreigners taking over our jobs'. And it's exactly this irrational sentiment being used until infinity that has killed the more valid discussions.
 
Well, they aren't. There's all sorts of Europeans working in the catering industry, I certainly don't see a prominence of Eastern Europeans, let alone an exclusivity. In fact I see more Southern Europeans than Eastern Europeans in all my local places in London. Which is interesting considering the number of migrants from Eastern Europe are many more than those Southern Europe by official numbers.

Eastern Europeans seem to dominate the construction work sector though in terms of foreign workers. Plenty of Brits working in construction too, since it pays much better than catering though it's arguably a lot harder work.

I'm not sure what the real question is though. Why are foreigners employed in the catering industry in the UK? Or why is not happening in Spain?

Based on casual observation, I am fairly sure there are foreigners in the catering industry in Spain but they are from LatAm and therefore less obviously “foreigners”, at least to another foreigner. Plus, as mentioned above, Spaniards can’t be as picky as Brits about doung low paid work with anti-social hours due to the much weaker jobs market.
 
Corporation tax makes no sense to me anyway.

Firstly the biggest corporations find ways to legally avoid paying it, gaining an advantage over smaller companies that can’t afford the buy-in cost for complex schemes involving tax havens and government concessions.

Secondly, increased net profits for firms means more money to invest into expansion, r&d, talent retention (salaries), dividends. So ultimately the money returns to the humans and that’s the point when it makes sense for me to tax it.
 
Corporation tax makes no sense to me anyway.

Firstly the biggest corporations find ways to legally avoid paying it, gaining an advantage over smaller companies that can’t afford the buy-in cost for complex schemes involving tax havens and government concessions.

Secondly, increased net profits for firms means more money to invest into expansion, r&d, talent retention (salaries), dividends. So ultimately the money returns to the humans and that’s the point when it makes sense for me to tax it.

Nope, it'll just be paid to the shareholders
 
I will never be tired of saying this:

If a person that is not native in your language (might not even speak it) with no family/friends networking, with bureaucratic burdens (being in EU does not allow you only to work in another country, there are prerequisites for all), not knowing the environment, culture etc... IF that person steal your job (and girlfriend/wife, just I heard that complain too half joke half true) is that you don't fecking deserve it. And no, is not only about the salary (specially girlfriend/wife). There are minimum wages and no, the salaries would not increase that much and if they would, so the cost of the services/products that would reflect that increase that will put you at square 0
 
Corporation tax makes no sense to me anyway.

Firstly the biggest corporations find ways to legally avoid paying it, gaining an advantage over smaller companies that can’t afford the buy-in cost for complex schemes involving tax havens and government concessions.

Secondly, increased net profits for firms means more money to invest into expansion, r&d, talent retention (salaries), dividends. So ultimately the money returns to the humans and that’s the point when it makes sense for me to tax it.

I disagree, i think trickle down economics have been exposed as a total sham for a while.
 
I disagree, i think trickle down economics have been exposed as a total sham for a while.

Tell that to the Irish, yeah? Seems to work a treat for them. From one of the poorest to one of the richest in Europe thanks to basically not asking businesses to pay corporation tax.

Don’t want to derail the thread further though. This is about Brexit. Happy to discuss this at length in another thread
 
I wish the people cared and analysed Brexit as much as we did the England football team.
 
Not strictly. They can stay longer than 3 months without a job so long as they can insure themselves and self-finance. And also you can move out of the country and back in, initiating a new 3-month period. So technically that's not even enforceable. I've never heard of an EU national being deported for not finding a job, have you?

Secondly telling people you have 3-months to find a job is not "controlling migration". Even if people were deported after 3 months of not finding jobs (which they are not) the impact on the jobs market would still be very significant, probably (speculation here) equal to not having that restriction at all.

You can come in as an engineer applying for jobs. If you don't find one in 3 months, you get a job in the catering industry to earn an income while you keep applying for engineering jobs. The impact on the job market for engineers is immediately felt.

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:62011CJ0300&from=EN

Just because we don't do it doesn't mean we can't.

It's just the cost of doing it would outstrip the benefits massively.

Why do you think it'll change afterwards when we've got the same politicians in charge? They all know the advantages of allowing people in, they're not suddenly going to stop exploiting them.
 
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:62011CJ0300&from=EN

Just because we don't do it doesn't mean we can't.

It's just the cost of doing it would outstrip the benefits massively.

Why do you think it'll change afterwards when we've got the same politicians in charge? They all know the advantages of allowing people in, they're not suddenly going to stop exploiting them.

You're linking me a case of someone forbidden entry into the UK on the grounds of public safety because he was a French - Algerian on a flight from Algeria and he had suspected terrorist links.

What is the point you are trying to make again?
 
I wish the people cared and analysed Brexit as much as we did the England football team.

643 pages suggests people do. But in subjects of politics people can be a bit dogmatic, or entrenched in their views, and unlikely to yield to reason. So there's that
 
I will never be tired of saying this:

If a person that is not native in your language (might not even speak it) with no family/friends networking, with bureaucratic burdens (being in EU does not allow you only to work in another country, there are prerequisites for all), not knowing the environment, culture etc... IF that person steal your job (and girlfriend/wife, just I heard that complain too half joke half true) is that you don't fecking deserve it. And no, is not only about the salary (specially girlfriend/wife). There are minimum wages and no, the salaries would not increase that much and if they would, so the cost of the services/products that would reflect that increase that will put you at square 0

You might not get tired of saying it and I won't get tired of calling it one of the most laughable arguments ever in the history of argumentation.
 
Tell that to the Irish, yeah? Seems to work a treat for them. From one of the poorest to one of the richest in Europe thanks to basically not asking businesses to pay corporation tax.

Don’t want to derail the thread further though. This is about Brexit. Happy to discuss this at length in another thread


Our riches have come at great expense to the rest of Europe. And i dont think the working class, middle class or Government services are doing so well as to be celebrating that much. Things have improved recently and its benefited Ireland a great deal, can't argue with you there. I don't think i'm that keen on debating it really. I get your position and I'm not that attached to my own really. I wouldn't put all our success down to corporation tax rates, being EU members is at least as relevant.
 
Our riches have come at great expense to the rest of Europe. And i dont think the working class, middle class or Government services are doing so well as to be celebrating that much. Things have improved recently and its benefited Ireland a great deal, can't argue with you there. I don't think i'm that keen on debating it really. I get your position and I'm not that attached to my own really. I wouldn't put all our success down to corporation tax rates, being EU members is at least as relevant.

Absolutely. Part of the reason why I'm also pro-European and a remainer. EU membership has some pros and cons, but in my simple head the pros surpass the cons. The EU has many issues that still needs to resolve though, with or without the UK.

Having a central currency but with different economies of different gears and no centralised fiscal policy is, in the long term, a recipe for disaster. The inability for certain countries to devalue the currency by printing money (like the UK did) in the face of financial crises, nearly sunk the Med region. Interests among members conflict and they appear more competitors than partners at times.

Migration is another big problem. Both the legal and the illegal kind. A lot of people don't generally like the racial/ethnic profile of their country changing too fast. Change is inevitable, but the faster the rate of change the more people will kick back. Especially if there are financial crises when migrants will get inevitably scapegoated for it.

Call it xenophobia, racism, bigotry, or lack of education if you want... it's still a factor you can't ignore. It's a reality. We don't live in a Utopia. If we did Communism might have worked. Currently Schengen is under threat, borders are shutting across Europe and right-wing parties are gaining massive ground everywhere. We can keep harping on about how migration is beneficial all the way till the EU collapses and it won't matter one jot.
 
Absolutely. Part of the reason why I'm also pro-European and a remainer. EU membership has some pros and cons, but in my simple head the pros surpass the cons. The EU has many issues that still needs to resolve though, with or without the UK.

Having a central currency but with different economies of different gears and no centralised fiscal policy is, in the long term, a recipe for disaster. The inability for certain countries to devalue the currency by printing money (like the UK did) in the face of financial crises, nearly sunk the Med region. Interests among members conflict and they appear more competitors than partners at times.

Migration is another big problem. Both the legal and the illegal kind. A lot of people don't generally like the racial/ethnic profile of their country changing too fast. Change is inevitable, but the faster the rate of change the more people will kick back. Especially if there are financial crises when migrants will get inevitably scapegoated for it.

Call it xenophobia, racism, bigotry, or lack of education if you want... it's still a factor you can't ignore. It's a reality. We don't live in a Utopia. If we did Communism might have worked. Currently Schengen is under threat, borders are shutting across Europe and right-wing parties are gaining massive ground everywhere. We can keep harping on about how migration is beneficial all the way till the EU collapses and it won't matter one jot.

The scales are tipped drastically towards the Pro side for Ireland.
Whatever about the problems of migration today it'll become a problem won't it? With the rising temperatures large parts of the World will become uninhabitable and immigration to northern europe will explode you'd expect. From a humanitarian side you'd want to say take them in and do your best for them. From a selfish side ... it'd probably be tempting to lock a lot out and basically leave them to die
 
Tell that to the Irish, yeah? Seems to work a treat for them. From one of the poorest to one of the richest in Europe thanks to basically not asking businesses to pay corporation tax.

Don’t want to derail the thread further though. This is about Brexit. Happy to discuss this at length in another thread

Stealing other nations taxes isn't the most amazing trick and a uniform corporation tax across Europe would put an end to it
 
I think millions of people don’t want to be part of a supranational dictatorship they know little about and don’t want to be part of the “ever closer union.” Lots of people want more control over immigration which they probably won’t get yet but leaving the EU in a sensible manner is a starting point.

Been very confident thus far we would be heading toward a Norway style deal. Seemed the only common sense option.

Sad to see ultra brexiters get their own way as ramainers do nothing but gnash their teeth and complain. Very disappointing

In fairness it is hard to stop gnashing teeth when we're told that we left to have more control over our borders and then the people who make that case then cite the 'Norway option', a country that is also signed up to freedom of movement and is also part of the Schengen agreement.

If all Remainers do is gnash their teeth I think you could class that as being extremely fecking polite.
 
In fairness it is hard to stop gnashing teeth when we're told that we left to have more control over our borders and then the people who make that case then cite the 'Norway option', a country that is also signed up to freedom of movement and is also part of the Schengen agreement.

If all Remainers do is gnash their teeth I think you could class that as being extremely fecking polite.

Is schengen part of the EEA agreement or something separate?
 
Is schengen part of the EEA agreement or something separate?

Schengen is the open border agreement, it's included for new members even though some are currently out of it(Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia).
 
Stealing other nations taxes isn't the most amazing trick and a uniform corporation tax across Europe would put an end to it

Might not be the most amazing one but it’s certainly the oldest one and the chance of uniform corporation tax in EU is precisely 0%. It’s a pipe dream. Bear in mind we don’t even have uniform corporate taxes within the same country, think Isle of Man.

With no centralised federal budget and no large subsidies to the poorer regions, nations that already struggle to attract corporations would be fecked even harder as most of those corporations will set up in the countries with the best infrastructure to support them. I.e the more industrialised North. The South and the East would be fecked. They would rightfully never sign up to it.

Those subsidies exist in any country including the UK. It’s well known that money generated in London gets funnelled out to finance other parts of the country and subsidies are paid to Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and the poorer regions of England. Which is fair of course.

However in the EU this would be politically very tricky. Public would detest it (“why are we funding the lazy X”) and right wing politicians would attack it for their personal gain. Something that happens when there’s no homogeneity and nationalism still exists within the Union. Also people would then point to the unevenness of income tax and the existence of personal tax havens as opposed to corporate tax havens. Will that become uniform too?

Let me put it this way. The state things are at now, it’d be far far FAR more likely that EU breaks up than such extreme steps to integration are taken. There's no appetite for tighter integration at the moment.
 
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Tbh misleading people in the manner many of your politicians did should be criminalised imo. Borderline traitorous imo.

Agreed. The fact they can barefaced lie and face no consequences, not even be called out on it, is baffling
 

This is what I was trying to explain to @JPRouve Think this will be the language on all these issues before we surrender.
 
That's a really good point!



Well I'm pretty sure it was just another version of 'why are those foreigners taking over our jobs'. And it's exactly this irrational sentiment being used until infinity that has killed the more valid discussions.
Well while there is unemployment there should be no need to recruit from outside, how is that not glaringly obvious ?
 
Massive oversimplification. You need to match skills (and other factors) of the unemployed to the jobs available.

On top of the fact that not all unemployed people can do all jobs, there's also the fact that not all unemployed people want to do all jobs. It might be a very small percentage of the population but there's always the people who'd rather be on the dole than do menial jobs for little money. Or people who's choice is forced by logic, like single mothers of little-to-none job qualifications that are better off being at home with kids than paying child minders or day care, while they go out to do menial jobs.

Then there's also the people in transition. If I lose my job in IT, I'd rather spend 2-3 months on the dole while I'm preparing for/attending interviews and training myself in the new tech that's in high demand. Much much better investment of my time in the long term than going at McDonald's to work as a burger flipper for 3 months. Something that has shitty pay, I can't really put in my CV and will also restrict my availability for interviews.

There'll always be a percentage of unemployed people and they'll always be some sectors with shortage. We've have a had shortage of medical staff (importing from abroad) for a couple of decades at least.
 
Anyone who wants an end to freedom of movement should have to come up with a viable solution to the NI border issue. Until there is one (there isn't going to be) we inherently can't end freedom of movement within the UK unless NI wish to secede or unite with Ireland.