Henrik Larsson
Still logged in at RAWK (help!)
Yeah but here's the flipside. When that shortage materialises, maybe the hospitality industry will start having to pay higher salaries instead of pittance which will also increase retention and prevent the "churn" as they describe it. That's a positive for the average person.
When you have uncontrolled migration, due to a union of economies of hugely different scales, you get a large influx of workers across the whole spectrum. Both for employment sectors that need workers, and for sectors that don't. When the worker supply begins to exceed the demand, the salaries stop growing. Because you can always readily replace a departing worker with another one for same or lower salary. It creates a downward pressure on salaries. As logic dictates and also evidenced in Mediterranean economies of large unemployment rates.
For healthy economies though, you end up in a situation where businesses are flourishing because they take advantage of cheaper and readily available labour. The stock exchange is booming , dividends for rich shareholders go up and CEO pay packets rocket upwards. Meanwhile the average worker salary is staying put or even decreasing after adjusting for inflation. Now if the country is also caught up in a financial bind, having to cut back on services & benefits then you have a really nasty effect where the rich start getting much richer while the lower classes bear the brunt in every way possible by both salaries and public services being hit. This an incomplete (admittedly) summation of what has happened in the UK in the last 8 years.
For example I look at my industry which is I.T. and I compare UK salaries to US salaries. The combination of two effects in the US have created a shortage:
a) more expensive education not easily available to all. And..
b) strong restriction on migration
This has resulted in highly increased wages. When I last had a look, the average salary in the States is approximately 70% higher compared to the UK for Software Devs, while living costs are largely the same or comparable. My London-based company has an office in NY and when we talked to recruitment agents there with plans to staff an I.T. department the salary expenditure we were confronted with made us shelve the plans entirely and base everything in London.
Now from my POV I see what is happening in the US I.T. industry as a good thing for the workers. The fact some of these firms struggle to get good workers on the cheap, I would not give two fecks about. Especially when most Western countries have rather low corporate/dividend tax, so it's even better for the country if the revenue is transferred to the employees and taxed heavily rather than reported as company profit or dividends and taxed much less. So long as business growth is not too negatively impacted, the average Joe benefits from a minor shortage.
So yeah, there is a problem with uncontrolled migration (especially for an English speaking country) and I say that as a pro-European and remainer.
Interesting read.
What would be your answer to Stanley's question?
I'm in spain right now, all the catering jobs are done by Spaniards. In Holland they have only just started employing non dutch speakers in bars and cafs due to chronic shortage of available people. Why are all the catering jobs in the uk done by eastern europeans?