Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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Sadly I think things have regressed today with the publication of this paper.
This really isn’t helping my ‘we’re definitely fecked’ feelings.
My god, apparently backstop is a term taken from baseball. Just when I thought things couldn't get any more shameful than they are.
Holy shit ! 
They wanted brexit, imagined that despite the vote it would be fudged by a government acting against their interests and imagine that that is what is happening.
After the damage has been done.
Oddly enough one would have thought that the Brexiters would be happy at the way things are going because a cliff-edge Brexit next March seems more likely by the day.
Or did they really believe they could have their cake and eat it.
Or did they really believe they could have their cake and eat it.
So 6% still think it's going well
A mighty 10% in fact.
At least the govt is dealing well with northern rail. In or out of the eu you can always rely on the tories.
If she doesn't sack him...
"Leaked"
I know. Boris thinks he's smart. Every man and his dog knows he's behind this.
I think it's became apparent over the last 2 years that none of them have a clue what they're doing.
Holy shit !
You look at this poll here and even it tells you that tory voters are essentially UKIP crop in disguise.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0608/969041-johnson-brexit-warning/
I have to say, as an Irishman I 100% agree with Boris here. This issue could be solved by creating customs depots where truck drivera carrying goods across the border have to report to for customs checks. So easy.
Im a little upset by how easily the Irish government is being used as a machanism to make the Brexit negtiations difficult for the UK too, considering abojt 40% of our trade is with Britain. Just seems counterproductive to Irish interests but in Europes interest.
At the end of all this the Irish will have ther tax regimes and budgets dictated to by Europe, so theres literally no political win for Ireland here. Another example of the ineptitude of Irish politians.
I have to say, as an Irishman I 100% agree with Boris here. This issue could be solved by creating customs depots where truck drivera carrying goods across the border have to report to for customs checks. So easy.
Im a little upset by how easily the Irish government is being used as a machanism to make the Brexit negtiations difficult for the UK too, considering abojt 40% of our trade is with Britain. Just seems counterproductive to Irish interests but in Europes interest.
At the end of all this the Irish will have ther tax regimes and budgets dictated to by Europe, so theres literally no political win for Ireland here. Another example of the ineptitude of Irish politians.
We are going right over this cliff edge people. The UK government is never going to come up with a coherent plan for what it wants, the divisions - between the politicians and the public - are too deep. Nothing they come up with will be satisfactory, everything will be shot down as either being unworkable or suicidal by remainers, or "not what we voted for" by Brexiters. There is no solution that ticks all the boxes, and nobody is willing to make the decision that is going to piss half the country off, with all the political consequences that come with that. So rather than make a decision that will have horrible consequences one way or the other (economic one way, political the other) but will at least steer us in a particular direction, we are just going to close our eyes and go over the cliff blind and see what happens.
I think the UK are doing quite a good job making it difficult on their own, to be honest.
Having said that only about a month ago I had the exact opposite feeling, that it was all brinksmanship and that all sides were making a show of disagreement, because they had to be seen to be fighting for their particular interests, and conceding too quickly, on either side, would give the impression too much had been conceded. I thought in the end something sensible would be agreed, concessions would be made by both sides, and we would end up with something that both sides could live with. This would still be an inferior arrangement to what we have, but not devastatingly bad - it would probably be staying in the CU, so getting a win on freedom of movement but giving up free trade deals and accepting regulatory fealty.
I guess it shows how volatile sentiment can be when you have no idea what the hell is going on behind closed doors.
I still do think the above is quite possible, and probably the best of a bad set of outcomes at this point. If you had told me this is what we were voting for I would have laughed in your face - but maybe enough people really were voting about the border issue that it would actually be politically satisfactory. Either way, every other outcome is worse IMO. Including cancelling the whole process, which I think would be catastrophic for democratic legitimacy in this country.
I guess it shows how volatile sentiment can be when you have no idea what the hell is going on behind closed doors.
I still do think the above is quite possible, and probably the best of a bad set of outcomes at this point. If you had told me this is what we were voting for I would have laughed in your face - but maybe enough people really were voting about the border issue that it would actually be politically satisfactory. Either way, every other outcome is worse IMO. Including cancelling the whole process, which I think would be catastrophic for democratic legitimacy in this country.
The thing that I don't understand here is, what concessions the 27 countries are supposed to make, I purposely don't say EU because it's too convenient to forget what we are actually talking about?
Youre right, concession is the wrong word from the EU perspective. What we will end up with will be something that the EU would have agreed to from the outset. It is the UK that needs to be seen to be fighting for more than it could have meekly accepted on day 1.
Its possible it will make some small concession or other, give the UK some slightly bespoke arrangement, not exactly the same as what was available "off she shelf", to allow the UK government to save a bit of face. Though of course this would be in exchange for something else, so the EU can also save face for having conceded whatever it was. But that will just be political smoke and mirrors and reasonably inconsequential.
You are right though, the compromise will come on the UK side. I mean, by definition we have to make the most compromises, seeing as whatever we do half the country wont like it, and more likely than, if we do anything coherent at all it will be something that pleases nobody, but is nobody's worst case scenario.
This strategy works great if your counterpart knows you're employing it...
. The worrying thing about this is that Boris apparently thinks his/May's current approach is sane.The concession the UK wants (full access while not crossing May's red lines) is impossible. I can't see any other concession that would satisfy the UK's needs, the red lines will need to disappear.
So hard border where every vehicle going across the border is checked for goods then? Only at major roads or every small country road that crosses across the border? I cross into the north, and back on my way to work everyday, should I be then stopped at customs 4 times daily in your scenario?
Boris is 100% wrong, either he doesn't understand the problem or is deliberately ignoring it.
The problems are not only the border checks which would be impossible. There are many other points which have been discussed numerous times.
The EU will not be changing the laws just to suit the UK and the WTO will also not be changing their rules to suit the UK.
The Irish trade will suffer but they still have agreements with the 26 other EU members and the countries the EU have agreements with.
If the UK leave off a cliff edge they will have agreements with zero countries, zero.
This strategy works great if your counterpart knows you're employing it...
The concession the UK wants (full access while not crossing May's red lines) is impossible. I can't see any other concession that would satisfy the UK's needs, the red lines will need to disappear.
Exactly, I feel that people still don't clearly understand that the concessions demanded from the EU are literally to sign a FTA and Custom agreement with the UK while the UK keep total independence from the other 27 countries, not only it makes no sense from a political or trading standpoint but it's also a huge problem from a legal POV.
The legal problems are particularly important here because we have the fresh example of the GFA, a deal built around a context(EU membership) that could have been unilaterally altered and made inapplicable. That's something that you don't want, that's why jurist and contract managers are crucial, you can't let or create obvious holes without clearly addressing them and the problem here is that not every holes can be filled, for example it's not possible to have two trade agreements in one custom and trade territory that contradict each others without having a common jurisdiction that will impose the rules on everyone.
This appears, on the face of it, to herald a seismic change in direction for the paper. If they do actually detoxify it it will be pretty remarkable.
Did you even read that post?
You realise that countries like Australia have trade agreements in place with the EU were there is recognition / alignment of the standards in both zones that allows Australian goods to move freely throughout Europe without the need for customs checks right?
I have spent the last 30 odd years trading throughout the world including Australia. The standards in Australia are not the same as the EU. Any product that comes from the EU and is shipped to Australia has to comply with Australian standards (which are tough) and any product that comes from Australia shipped to Europe has to comply with EU standards and if it does it can circulate within the EU countries.
However, there still have to be customs checks because Australia is not in the Custom's Union.
The UK wants to leave the custom's union and trade on WTO rules. WTO rules dictate that there has to be a hard border.
Australia, however, is a good country to bring up because about 20 years ago it took about 5/6 weeks for shipments to reach there - now because there are fewer ships, everything is shipped through hubs, containers are trans-shipped from vessels to vessels and ports to ports. The last shipment I shipped to Australia a couple of years ago took over 4 months because of massive congestion in Shanghai.
Trading with Europe is on a short-term basis where everything is time dependent and delays in documentation (which will be necessary) will cause untold delays, whereas if you are dealing with a country a long distance away you have all the time in the world to get the documentation you require.
Nevertheless customs checks are only a part of the problem that will be caused by the UK leaving.
I suspect they thought this would be an easy process where we'd impose ourselves on the EU and get an easy and simple hard Brexit. The reality so far is probably rather disconcerting for them, especially with certain issues unresolved.
I'd say Tory members - a lot of Tory voters are fairly non-political and will often just think they're best for the economy, or that they're a safer choice than Labour. The Tory membership base is essentially UKIP in disguise though and increasingly looks to move to the right now they feel they've been justified by Brexit and no longer need (supposed) softer figures like Cameron in charge. A bit like Labour in their lurch to the left, you could say.
That can't be the case, the 25% began by thinking it would go badly.
Ah, so they did. In that case, maybe UKIP voters who thought from the beginning that the Tories and EU would sabotage their wishful hard Brexit. Or morons who just wanted to stick it to the entire country.
I had a serious discussion with the missus last night about whether we needed to stock up on canned food etc, ahead of next March. I thought she'd think I was crazy. She actually agreed we should begin given the risks of massive customs feckups and potential supply disruption to shops. Still not sure if I'm being crazy, but feck, our current leaders inspire zero confidence.
This could actually be quite significant.. if the owners of the Mail arent happy with the Pro Brexit stance.
Are The Daily Mail really going to risk upsetting its readership? It is after all a business first.
Think ive still got 1000 cans of baked beans and corned beef in the shed from the millennium bug scare so I should be alright.