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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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I had a serious discussion with the missus last night about whether we needed to stock up on canned food etc, ahead of next March. I thought she'd think I was crazy. She actually agreed we should begin given the risks of massive customs feckups and potential supply disruption to shops. Still not sure if I'm being crazy, but feck, our current leaders inspire zero confidence.
In all seriousness though, I was thinking recently about how maybe now is the time to buy a new car, given my current one is pretty damn old and I guess Ill probably be needing a new one in about 2 or 3 years. Maybe I can squeeze more life out of it than that, but I suspect not. How much more expensive will a car be in 2 or 3 years?

But then I was thinking if need be I can always just go to Europe, buy a car and then drive it home, if need be.
 
I had a serious discussion with the missus last night about whether we needed to stock up on canned food etc, ahead of next March. I thought she'd think I was crazy. She actually agreed we should begin given the risks of massive customs feckups and potential supply disruption to shops. Still not sure if I'm being crazy, but feck, our current leaders inspire zero confidence.
I don't think things will get that bad. If that happens under any government, they'll be handing in resignations within hours.
I do agree with @Adebesi car prices would be at immediate risk. The auto makers have already said their concerns have not been heard and God knows what happens with the £.
 
In all seriousness though, I was thinking recently about how maybe now is the time to buy a new car, given my current one is pretty damn old and I guess Ill probably be needing a new one in about 2 or 3 years. Maybe I can squeeze more life out of it than that, but I suspect not. How much more expensive will a car be in 2 or 3 years?

But then I was thinking if need be I can always just go to Europe, buy a car and then drive it home, if need be.

Wouldn‘t you need UK registration (license plate) thus pay import tax anyway (since I‘d expect them to ask for papers on UK car import lobby pressure)?
 
I had a serious discussion with the missus last night about whether we needed to stock up on canned food etc, ahead of next March. I thought she'd think I was crazy. She actually agreed we should begin given the risks of massive customs feckups and potential supply disruption to shops. Still not sure if I'm being crazy, but feck, our current leaders inspire zero confidence.

What is crazy is that a country in 2018 is trying to cut itself off from its supply chain.
If the UK does go off the cliff edge in March, expect the worst and multiply it by ten.
 
Here is the Press Association’s first take on the Michel Barnier press conference.

Brussels will not be “intimidated” by Britons who try to blame the EU for their inability to secure the Brexit deal they want, chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said.

Barnier was speaking as he said that Theresa May’s proposals for a backstop customs arrangement in Northern Ireland raise a series of “difficult” questions.

Speaking in Brussels, Barnier said it was not necessarily “feasible” to extend the EU’s offer of continued participation in key elements of the customs union in Northern Ireland to cover the whole of the UK, as the Prime Minister’s proposal suggests.

And he said MMay’s insistence that the arrangement must be time-limited meant that it could not be regarded as a true backstop, providing a fallback option if the UK’s preferred permanent solution could not be agreed.

“Backstop means backstop,” he said. “The temporary backstop is not in line with what we want or what Ireland and Northern Ireland want and need.”

Barnier said it appeared that some Brexit supporters wanted to offload on to Brussels the blame for the fact that the UK cannot continue to enjoy some of the benefits of EU membership after leaving.

But he said: “We are not going to be intimidated by this form of blame game.”
 
Wouldn‘t you need UK registration (license plate) thus pay import tax anyway (since I‘d expect them to ask for papers on UK car import lobby pressure)?
Quite possibly, I havent really thought it through at all.

Im not really in a position to buy a new car at the moment though. So I guess Ill have to hope for the best. And maybe play BOTB.
 
Quite possibly, I havent really thought it through at all.

Im not really in a position to buy a new car at the moment though. So I guess Ill have to hope for the best. And maybe play BOTB.

Wouldn’t it be a pain in the ass having the steering wheel on the wrong side too? :)
 
Wouldn’t it be a pain in the ass having the steering wheel on the wrong side too? :)
I dont know that it would, really. I feel like it would be something you would stop noticing after about a week. Maybe Im underestimating it. But when Ive hired cars abroad Ive got used to it pretty quickly. I mean, all other things being equal I would choose to have the steering wheel on the right, but if you offered me a few thousand quid to have it on the left I would be happy to do that.
 
He (Barnier) added: "Let's go back to pragmatism. Checks carried out on ferries are less disruptive than along a 500km-long land border. In addition, these checks can build on arrangements and facilities which already exist between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland."

Sounds like Barnier is telling the UK they have to have a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which will only reinforce Brexiters hatred of the EU telling them what to do all the time.

Barnier may be right or he may be wrong, as the song goes, but I'm not reading anything to change my view that a hard Brexit and a hard border is still the most likely outcome. Unless the government falls, without DUP support, but I'm not sure Labour cake and eat it hopes would result in anything different anyway.
 
Arlene would rather be 6ft under than see a border between NI and the rest of the UK.
 
He (Barnier) added: "Let's go back to pragmatism. Checks carried out on ferries are less disruptive than along a 500km-long land border. In addition, these checks can build on arrangements and facilities which already exist between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland."

Sounds like Barnier is telling the UK they have to have a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which will only reinforce Brexiters hatred of the EU telling them what to do all the time.

Barnier may be right or he may be wrong, as the song goes, but I'm not reading anything to change my view that a hard Brexit and a hard border is still the most likely outcome. Unless the government falls, without DUP support, but I'm not sure Labour cake and eat it hopes would result in anything different anyway.

Because the only other solution to maintain the GFA is for the UK to remain in the CU/SM. The UK insist they are leaving the CU/SM - so yep hard Brexit in March it is, unless something radical changes
 
At least when all this is over, the country is in ruins, we are all subsisting off moss and bugs under rocks because there is no food left in the country and we all have to fashion our own clothes out of leaves and bits of scrap material salvaged from the wasteland, I will be able to wag my fingers at the Brexiters and say "I bloody told you so."

There is at least some small consolation in that.
 
I dont know that it would, really. I feel like it would be something you would stop noticing after about a week. Maybe Im underestimating it. But when Ive hired cars abroad Ive got used to it pretty quickly. I mean, all other things being equal I would choose to have the steering wheel on the right, but if you offered me a few thousand quid to have it on the left I would be happy to do that.

I dunno, it’s manageable for short periods, but it’s a pain in the arse for overtaking.
 
I dunno, it’s manageable for short periods, but it’s a pain in the arse for overtaking.
Worse when you have to put a ticket in a parking barrier.
 
Wouldn’t it be a pain in the ass having the steering wheel on the wrong side too? :)

OF course everything that is not on the UK standards is wrong (not different). Side of the road, metric vs imperial, Premier League vs Liga :p
 
Arlene would rather be 6ft under than see a border between NI and the rest of the UK.

I'm genuinely at a loss as to what she thinks will happen in supporting Brexit. She doesn't want a full border because she knows that'll hugely benefit Sinn Fein, but doesn't want a border between the UK and NI either. What the feck else is she hoping for?:lol:
 
I dont know that it would, really. I feel like it would be something you would stop noticing after about a week. Maybe Im underestimating it. But when Ive hired cars abroad Ive got used to it pretty quickly. I mean, all other things being equal I would choose to have the steering wheel on the right, but if you offered me a few thousand quid to have it on the left I would be happy to do that.

Yeah most people adapt quickly when driving abroad, but it's harder to drive a left hand drive car in a road system designed for right hand drive cars. Though if you bought one in Ireland it would be right hand drive.
 
I'm genuinely at a loss as to what she thinks will happen in supporting Brexit. She doesn't want a full border because she knows that'll hugely benefit Sinn Fein, but doesn't want a border between the UK and NI either. What the feck else is she hoping for?:lol:
Pretty sure the DUP's main problem with the EU was human rights. That's the only reason they backed Brexit imo. I can't think of any other.
 
Yeah most people adapt quickly when driving abroad, but it's harder to drive a left hand drive car in a road system designed for right hand drive cars. Though if you bought one in Ireland it would be right hand drive.
Then that's where Ill go.

In fact, that makes even more sense. Ill fly to Dublin, by a car, drive it to Belfast because there will be no border, get a boat to Liverpool because there will be no border there either, and then ill drive home.

This Brexit lark is going to be super convenient.
 
OF course everything that is not on the UK standards is wrong (not different). Side of the road, metric vs imperial, Premier League vs Liga :p

I’m on the fence over metric (Britain has a weird hybrid of the two systems anyway), but yep when it comes to roads and la liga I stand by my position. ;)
 
I'm genuinely at a loss as to what she thinks will happen in supporting Brexit. She doesn't want a full border because she knows that'll hugely benefit Sinn Fein, but doesn't want a border between the UK and NI either. What the feck else is she hoping for?:lol:
Some of that lovely Brexit cake.
 
I have spent the last 30 odd years trading throughout the world including Australia. The standards in Australia are not the same as the EU. Any product that comes from the EU and is shipped to Australia has to comply with Australian standards (which are tough) and any product that comes from Australia shipped to Europe has to comply with EU standards and if it does it can circulate within the EU countries.

However, there still have to be customs checks because Australia is not in the Custom's Union.

The UK wants to leave the custom's union and trade on WTO rules. WTO rules dictate that there has to be a hard border.

Australia, however, is a good country to bring up because about 20 years ago it took about 5/6 weeks for shipments to reach there - now because there are fewer ships, everything is shipped through hubs, containers are trans-shipped from vessels to vessels and ports to ports. The last shipment I shipped to Australia a couple of years ago took over 4 months because of massive congestion in Shanghai.

Trading with Europe is on a short-term basis where everything is time dependent and delays in documentation (which will be necessary) will cause untold delays, whereas if you are dealing with a country a long distance away you have all the time in the world to get the documentation you require.

Nevertheless customs checks are only a part of the problem that will be caused by the UK leaving.

Do you think after Brexit (with hard border) the just in time UK industry will be able to function after an obvious period of adjustment?
 
I’m on the fence over metric (Britain has a weird hybrid of the two systems anyway), but yep when it comes to roads and la liga I stand by my position. ;)

And you think the 27 will show you any merci with any Brexit deal/extension/trying to get back on article 50. Madness
 
Some of that lovely Brexit cake.

I'd imagine the DUP were partly supportive for purely political reasons; they would've known that going against Brexit would've likely pissed off their very conservative, pro-UK base who would've likely been opposed to the idea of the EU itself. But still...the fact no one sat back and thought what a headache it'd be for Northern Ireland (and the DUP itself by extension) is fecking astounding. And hilarious. In a sort grimly ironic way.
 
I'd imagine the DUP were partly supportive for purely political reasons; they would've known that going against Brexit would've likely pissed off their very conservative, pro-UK base who would've likely been opposed to the idea of the EU itself. But still...the fact no one sat back and thought what a headache it'd be for Northern Ireland (and the DUP itself by extension) is fecking astounding. And hilarious. In a sort grimly ironic way.
They also got that big multi billion budget increase dont forget.
 
Do you think after Brexit (with hard border) the just in time UK industry will be able to function after an obvious period of adjustment?

The just in time industry cannot survive in the UK without a totally frictionless border. Even a country with land borders with many possible border crossing places would find it extremely difficult, one hiccup in the system and total chaos. With Great Britain being an island with very few points of crossing it's impossible.

It has to have the same laws, same standards , everything. It's not just the inspections, it's the paperwork, even digital documents. This is more of a concern than tariffs being added.
 
True. Were they pro Brexit before the referrendum?
Bear in mind the Tories and Labour both campaigned as pro-Brexit, so I guess the choice for the DUP was between watching a minority Brexit government they had no influence in, and supporting a Brexit government who at least were their traditional allies. We know cash was involved as well, but no doubt other promises were also made.