I don't think it's that unclear what the position of FOM is, unless I'm missing something? This agreement on the NI border neccesarily includes FOM, which means the UK have conceded that point even if that's what they consider a "worst case scenario" basis. Although they may claim it's up for negotaiation in phase two, there's no reason for Ireland/EU to agree to anything less than what they have already secured at this point.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
I don't think it's that unclear what the position of FOM is, unless I'm missing something? This agreement on the NI border neccesarily includes FOM, which means the UK have conceded that point even if that's what they consider a "worst case scenario" basis. Although they may claim it's up for negotaiation in phase two, there's no reason for Ireland/EU to agree to anything less than what they have already secured at this point.
Yep, incredible how people still don't get this so far into the process.
Surely anyone from Ulster can obtain an Irish Passport whenever they want. The ardent unionists may not like it but they could just use it to avoid border problems.
Last edited:
Well neither are settled definitively, but we have our opinions about which way either will go. I meant people though, that looks like the more controversial issue at this stage. I am torn on this one. Unlike some people I think the vote we had last year was essentially a referendum on immigration, so I think any compromise on that promise (to limit free movement) would be a betrayal too far - for the majority of the 52% and certainly for the right wing press.
Having said that, I dont think the UK will get the trade deal it wants without concessions on free movement (of people). And the government has shown it is willing to back down on pretty much anything. So maybe itll be another case of putting on a big show of fighting for something and then throwing in the towel and calling it genius negotiation. I guess if people are sufficiently terrified of the alternative maybe theyll be willing to live with it by the time the concession is made.
Britain is basically going to remain in the single market and the customs union. But at the end of all of this won’t have any influence on the rules governing either. Freedom of Movement of people and goods will be the same as they are today. And Britain will pay Europe €39bn to NOT be able to influence the rules. What on Earth was the point of all of this??
I think they have explicitly said we wont be in customs union.
It was on the timeline on the BBC page. I tried to track down the actual update that explained it though, and couldn't find anything. It was very strange.
I don't think this is right unfortunately.
From today’s Guardian...
The first, and biggest, concession is buried in paragraph 49 of the 15-page report published early on Friday morning. Its implications will be anything but quiet in the weeks to come, for it undermines the prime minister’s previous insistence that Britain will be leaving the single market.
It states clearly: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union.” In other words, the UK may not be a member of the single market, or have any direct ability to shape its rules in future, but it could yet have to play by them in perpetuity.
It’s a fudge. It will be the case for transition, just watch, it will become the norm. Brexit doesn’t mean Brexit. It means nothing really.
I think they will tell everyone that getting a bad trade agreement without FOM is some massive Churchillian achievement.
They may have, but they've just agreed to enter into the next phase of negotiations on the agreement that there is no border between NI and EU, no border between NI and the UK, and no special status for NI which, obviously, implies that you need alignment between the two entities.
As always with Brexit it seems impossible to square the words with reality.
We've taken back control of everything except the things we haven't taken back control of. Clear ?
I think everyone got this some time ago Cheesy, let's take that as read.
Consider this from the BBC:
EU negotiator Michel Barnier told journalists that alignment would apply only to the "island of Ireland", not the rest of the UK, although some Brexiteers have read it as meaning the whole of the UK would have to abide by some EU rules.
Why does Barnier stress alignment 'only to the island of Ireland'? I've no idea, they may not even know themselves as most of it is yet to be discussed. He's always seemed to quite consider his words to me though, Barnier.
Personally I suspect the Irish borders statement to be no more than vague fudgy ideals to suit everyone, as both sides want the talks to progress to the next stage and not founder completely. And if that is so then the extrapolations are built on not very much.
Not for me. The most important part for me the ability to keep trading with Europe tariff fee.
Nicely putI imagine that is how the EU sees it and how it will play out as the next stage is negotiated.
But from the Brexiteer perspective, they are still insisting we will NOT be part of the customs union. So what I think they are aiming for is a free trade deal (yet to be arranged) that allows for freedom of movement of goods between the UK and EU, underpinned not by membership of the customs union (which would require freedom of movement for people as well, as you say) but by regulatory equivalence (which requires we adhere to all EU rules, despite technically not being part of the club.)
That is my take on it. If you are in the single market / customs union, you accept the four freedoms. If you are outside you have some other bespoke arrangement (like Canada, which does not have freedom of movement with the EU, does). We grease the wheels for the trade deal by accepting we will stay in line with EU regulations, but we do not accept free movement.
Like I said, this is what I assume the Brexiteers are hoping to secure. Whether the EU will agree to it is another question entirely, as you said they have already secured the commitments they want from us so we havent got much in the way of leverage at this point. Though as I keep saying, I think there is still the possibility everything agreed to now falls apart if the next stage goes badly - the wording implies the Irish border issue is settled regardless of what happens next but I dont know what the legal basis for that claim is. If they offer us a bad deal and we walk away from the whole process with no deal, how does the EU enforce our promises on the Irish border? I have no idea.
All one big fudge.
Confusion reigns. The ‘leaving the customs union’ piece is supposedly the end game after transition. It will never happen. It can’t. It’s all fudge, as you say yourself!
If I'm not mistaken, the agreement is for the island of Ireland but since NI and Great Britain don't want custom borders, the rest of the UK have to align the rules to NI(or more accurately the island of Ireland).
@Adebesi
Didn't you forward an idea that there could be trade border checks between NI and the UK but only for the trade of EU goods?
Do these developments not suggest that will be the case?
Didn't you forward an idea that there could be trade border checks between NI and the UK but only for the trade of EU goods?
Do these developments not suggest that will be the case?
there so Brexit means Brexit...
in truth from a business perspective Im taking this as we are basically going to be in the single market (no doubt at a cost) but really positive in terms of being able to plan... plus we are probably going to remain in all but name which from a personal POV makes me happy
I agree. I just find it bizarre that an entire country, a big powerful one like Britain, has put itself through this. Can’t think of an appropriate analogy but imagine paying to not be a member of a club so that you can obey that clubs rules. Bizarre.
That was before the DUP's intervention I think? Wasnt that basically what the DUP intervened to kill, this basic idea?
It seems like, as ever, the solution has been to fudge it, so I guess there is a decent chance this is still how it will pan out - with all sides careful to say it is not happening.
Honestly, if I were to bet I'd bet less for it being a fudge and more for the government not knowing what the ramifications of what they'd agreed to.
It has an undeniable logic, but maybe:
This, something like this, something we haven't figured out yet, or something that hasn't been agreed, or even discussed yet.
Despite everyone's kind advice I still have the feeling I haven't learned a right lot so far.
I wonder what this woman thinks of the news today.
Yeah anyone born on the island can get an Irish passport. After the Brexit vote there was a huge spike in applicants from the north.
I wouldn't get too happy just yet. This has to pass parliamentary vote, and after the press work out this isn't a great deal for the hardliners, I think we can expect a big fight.
Or have an ancestral link. I think that loads of people were getting Irish passports so they could stay EU citizens.
There's no point leaving and still being governed by the EU in all but name. Hopefully this waste of time and money is coming to an end now.
The brexiteer humiliation should last for years, however.
The brexiteer humiliation should last for years, however.
possibly - but the DUP, Labour, Libs, SNP and any non hardline brexit types would quite possibly be in favour and presumably with a 3 line whip from the government anybody looking to climb the greasy political pole would probably fall into line or at worst abstain - so i think it would stand a decent chance of passing
What did the Irish lose exactly?I wonder what this woman thinks of the news today.
Unless of course those hardline Brexiteers think that they're being sold out by a weak prime minister and quite fancy the idea of replacing her with one of their own. Like Boris or Reese-Mogg.
Exactly. Exactly exactly.
yup - done it myself (Irish Grandparent)
Alan Greenspan once said: "I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant."
I think you can apply that logic to this whole process. If they are sufficiently unclear about everything then nobody can have too much conviction in their opposition to it.
So coming back to what @NinjaFletch said above, I am sure this is a fudge - it is the cornerstone of how EU politics works.
possible but I think unlikely anybody would fancy stepping in half way through negotiations and then walking away from the EU negotiations... it would be political suicide
Far better to wait till May et al cnut it up and then pin the blame on them and zip line in to take over
