Probably the biggest bullshit out there regarding Brexit. Nobody gives a feck about GB, if there’s any trade deals at all, they will be archieved from a position of a beggar.
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Probably the biggest bullshit out there regarding Brexit. Nobody gives a feck about GB, if there’s any trade deals at all, they will be archieved from a position of a beggar.
Yes if the Uk managed that I would agree, but I cannot see how they could possibly do that , I am more than hugely sceptical. It's almost starting from zero even though May thinks she can paste and copy agreements.
Canada is one example -which would probably be one of the easier agreements to get - as per the meeting earlier between May and Trudeau , Trudeau said that with the agreement already in place with the EU would help with the establishment of an agreement between the Uk and Canada but the EU agreement would only form a base for the start of negotiations - not as May seems to interpret it as an almost immediate copy and paste agreement.
What happens in the meantime?
Alright buddy.
Truth hurts.
It would take a long time of course. It will take 10+ years before we could be truly prosperous again I would expect, which is pretty much why I voted remain
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Bit of both seems to be the answer. The OBR document only mentions 'Brexit' 46 times (to be fair it says 'exiting the EU' loads) and doesn't say 'WTO'.
http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.org.uk/Nov2017EFOwebversion-2.pdf
If you really see you own perception as definitive proof of the 'truth', given by the general bitter and arrogant tone of your posts it would fit.
I think plenty of countries will want to to do a deal with the fifth largest economy in the world, seems logical to me. Granted we will be the junior partner in a few cases but that does not mean that a beneficial deal cannot be struck for the UK.
A copy and paste of the Canada deal would be completely useless for us, it excludes services and our economy is 80% services.
I think you're being optimistic, what I can't see is how the Uk gets through the coming years without a major economic crisis if it goes to WTO in March 2019. I actually don't think it will come to that and that an agreement will be found eventually with the UK outside the EU but still subject to the rules and payments they want to avoid.
A few? All of them. Emerging countries won’t be interested and wouldn’t be beneficial to GB anyway while established trade countries will just exploit them. That’s how it works, it’s one of the very reasons the EU exists.
Outside of your conversation, the "fifth largest economy" is highly linked to the City, being out of the EU will have a huge influence on that, iirc almost 40% of wholesale business done in the EU are done through the City.
The Norway Model?
You have to say that would be a pretty funny outcome, if you think about it. Britain votes to leave the EU to take back control and then ends up in pretty much exactly the same position it was in before, but with no influence over the rules, i.e. with considerably less control than it had before. We would have to go along with whatever France and Germany decided, or if you want to be less cynical, whatever the EU decided, without the UK's Anglo Saxon influence.
We could leave the EU and as a result end up being more European than we were before.
It would almost be worth it just to watch Johnson, Gove, Farrage, Rees Mogg and the rest of them crying about it.
That simply isn't true though. When Detroit went bankrupt (the largest of many cities) New York or California did not step in, it was Detroit's pensioners who lost everything. In theory the redistribution could be done within the US, but it isn't done in practice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_bankruptcy
My thoughts exactly.
The fact that the government didnt step in to rescue the big car makers does not disprove the concept of fiscal transfer in America.
@Abizzz
The Economist says:
https://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/08/americas-fiscal-union
The Economist says:
https://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/08/americas-fiscal-union
From what I gather London will remain the premier financial centre in Europe after Brexit.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-london-stays-worlds-top-finance-centre-despite-brexit-2017-9
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...inancial-capital-despite-brexit-a8054801.html
@fcbforever
And what of the countries that aren't in the EU, how do they trade?
@Adebesi
I was talking about the municipal bankruptcy (As much government as it gets...).
Edit: Take another look at the spoiler now if it didn't work before, I messed up including the picture at first.
Also: The federal government did rescue the car manufacturers, just not the actual city itself...
I was talking about the municipal bankruptcy (As much government as it gets...).
Edit: Take another look at the spoiler now if it didn't work before, I messed up including the picture at first.
Also: The federal government did rescue the car manufacturers, just not the actual city itself...
I knew you were going to come back with something like that.
That relates to the whole EU, not the eurozone. For the currency to work it would need to be on a bigger scale.
Well you have admit it's kind of the obvious thing to come back with
, it being exactly the same and all... Yeah and when that is increased they'll come back with that as a reason that it cannot work.At the end of the day there are reputable economists on both sides of this argument and my explanation is hardly a definitive explanation of what fiscal union entails anyway. So yeah, I can live with you disagreeing with me.Well you have admit it's kind of the obvious thing to come back with
Going by pages around 37 and 38 I think it's assuming the deep and special partnership (although I haven't read it all yet) with some agreement with the EU.
I would have thought if WTO and losing passport rights were anticipated they would be highlighted in red unless of course that sort of comment was suppressed by the government.
It might remain top in Europe but by a much smaller margin. The UK had a substantial share of highly skilled jobs from EU institutions.
Yesterday London lost the EBA and many banks are already moving some jobs out of London. They might've moved less than expected so far because most assume a deal will be done but the loss of influence is already evident. London will now be, at best, a regional champion in Europe, as opposed to competing with NY for top place globally. That is unless the genius Brexiters somehow managed to get rid of regulation as it is now and we saw how that ended in 2008. That is not very likely because the direction of travel is towards more not less regulation as the failed fund manager JRM would have you believe.
What I am essentially saying is that your 'realist' expectations are looking more and more like best case scenario based on the current state of play.
Still wishing and hoping eh Paul?
Dream on, we are leaving, if that means no deal then that's what it is, but when Theresa shows them the money it will turn the EU heads, they can't help it!
PS. Sorry been out of contact for a while, bet you've missed me? When we last exchange posts you were trying to tell me how influential MEP's were and the British MEP's let the side down, or something in that vein. The Commissioners make the policies, the MEPS are something like our Lords they can approve or send back for amendments, but they are not the policy makers.. thought you would have known that?
I said we would be doing well to avoid a recession, in fact it would surprise me if we did. I didn't project those GDP figures, nor am I the decision maker at Goldman Sachs building their new European headquarters in London.
One final point I forgot to make is that being happy manufacturing is experiencing a short-term boom because of currency rate imbalances is not something worth celebrating. Given that in the long-term (and the Brexit decision is as long-term as it gets) the effect of currency depreciation will be neutral or negative, as the UK imports most of its inputs for the manufactured goods it produces.
This is without mentioning automation and how it will end labour participation in manufacturing, by and large.
This is without mentioning automation and how it will end labour participation in manufacturing, by and large.
Still wishing and hoping eh Paul?
Dream on, we are leaving, if that means no deal then that's what it is, but when Theresa shows them the money it will turn the EU heads, they can't help it!
PS. Sorry been out of contact for a while, bet you've missed me? When we last exchange posts you were trying to tell me how influential MEP's were and the British MEP's let the side down, or something in that vein. The Commissioners make the policies, the MEPS are something like our Lords they can approve or send back for amendments, but they are not the policy makers.. thought you would have known that?
Look. The pensioner discovered Wikipedia.
It is odd- you'd think that they'd they cover off that scenario, at least in the annex, but can't find anything. From p247 it goes on about difficulties in making assumptions round the cost of the divorce bill, how long we continue to contribute and the additional costs we take on, eg massively expanding HMRC staff.
Has there been a good, objective study done on the implications of going to WTO rules?
I guess the problem is with the word objective.
I guess the problem is with the word objective.
First, I just mentioned that the City will lose clients which will mean a loss of income. As for your question, can you be more explicit?
In case you have missed it, Goldman is moving substantial parts of their business to Frankfurt and Paris. Including their European headquarter.
Hammond today said 6th largest
To be fair, France and the UK are extremely close. I don't understand why either side always try to make people believe something else.
Edit: And India.
I'm unsure as to how those articles, which are based on the UK still being in the EU, are relevant to what will happen after the UK isn't in the EU anymore?
I suspect London will remain the world's biggest financial center for quite some time after Brexit, because, well, it's huge, but over time things are definitely going to change, slowly but surely. We probably won't see anyone overtake London, moreso the growth will spread in the likes of Paris, Frankfurt and to a lesser extent Amsterdam, Dublin, etc. as London shrinks.
Investopedia has us fifth, then India and France. Tbf, you can measure economy size in several different ways, which will throw up different results.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022415/worlds-top-10-economies.asp
Yup, that's why the rankings are in my opinion overstated.
I agree with that and agree to disagree.
It's just a bit tiring that there's this narrative in the English speaking media that the euro is doomed and that it's common knowledge as to why, when in fact the reasoning behind it is just a economic theory that hasn't been proven by anyone.
I still don't understand. Are people genuinely thinking that the problem is with the physicality of the border? The problem is legal, the current borders are invisible but that's because the exact same set of rules are applied on both sides.
They are opening hubs in Frankfurt and Paris. Their 'European Headquarters' are currently being built in London.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...brexit-leave-eu-lloyd-blankfein-a8027621.html
The second article addresses Bloomberg's prediction on how the City will fare after Brexit so it isn't based on us still being in the EU.
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