Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[C3Pique]

Yeah my post was assuming there being tariff free trade post UK leaving.

Quite. Meanwhile, genius John Redwood suggests taxing UK consumers buying European goods, in order to refund ... UK consumers. Of course this financial merry go round is cost free and 100% of the proceeds goes back to those who paid the taxes in the first place.

 

[AshfordLad]

Quite. Meanwhile, genius John Redwood suggests taxing UK consumers buying European goods, in order to refund ... UK consumers. Of course this financial merry go round is cost free and 100% of the proceeds goes back to those who paid the taxes in the first place.

Seems like a novel way of saying they will subsidise businesses that lose out due to tarrifs.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Quite. Meanwhile, genius John Redwood suggests taxing UK consumers buying European goods, in order to refund ... UK consumers. Of course this financial merry go round is cost free and 100% of the proceeds goes back to those who paid the taxes in the first place.

No-one is that stupid, I keep saying that but keep being proved wrong time and again by Brexiters.

Let's tell him it would bring in £500 trillion and he can give that back to the consumers.

Why does he need new estimates if he's giving it back, whether it's 50p or £500 trillion the government won't see it anyway but they've still got to finance the collection and distribution of it.

Also under WTO rules you have to work under most favoured nation rules without a trade agreement.

So who's he trying to con, the British people or their other trade partners.

 

[C3Pique]

Seems like a novel way of saying they will subsidise businesses that lose out due to tarrifs.

By charging their customers more? Seems a self defeating process.

 

[JPRouve]

By charging their customers more? Seems a self defeating process.

I think that he is right. If I'm not mistaken the idea is to give the tarrifs paid by EU companies to UK based companies trading with the EU, basically subsidies.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I think that he is right. If I'm not mistaken the idea is to give the tarrifs paid by EU companies to UK based companies trading with the EU, basically subsidies.

Eh?

 

[C3Pique]

I think that he is right. If I'm not mistaken the idea is to give the tarrifs paid by EU companies to UK based companies trading with the EU, basically subsidies.

But the UK customers are the ones who will be paying the tariffs on anything coming in. And EU businesses buying from the UK will just shift custom to other EU countries, so we'd better save those subsidies for unemployment benefits for the UK workers instead.

 

[JPRouve]

Eh?

The subsidies part, not the scheme. I knew that I wasn't clear at all.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The subsidies part, not the scheme. I knew that I wasn't clear at all.

Yes but , see my previous post, there is no money, the UK consumers pay the tariffs and the government supposedly pays it back again and it will cost a lot to process this money that doesn't really exist.

 

[AshfordLad]

But the UK customers are the ones who will be paying the tariffs on anything coming in. And EU businesses buying from the UK will just shift custom to other EU countries, so we'd better save those subsidies for unemployment benefits for the UK workers instead.

You really think they care for UK consumers. Bet most tories mps would have rubbed one out when the £ fell.

 

[C3Pique]

You really think they care for UK consumers. Bet most tories mps would have rubbed one out when the £ fell.

Oh yes John Redwood - man of the people. I think we're on the same page here?

 

[JPRouve]

Yes but , see my previous post, there is no money, the UK consumers pay the tariffs and the government supposedly pays it back again and it will cost a lot to process this money that doesn't really exist.

I was talking about AshfordLad being right concerning subsidies, I just botched the all thing.

 

[C3Pique]

Redwood doesn't mention subsidies for businesses. Just tax cuts and benefits raises for consumers. Who pay the tariffs in the first place.

Also note his use of 'could'. About as binding as 'let's fund our NHS instead.'

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I was talking about AshfordLad being right concerning subsidies, I just botched the all thing.

Yes I did realise that , but there are no subsidies, it reminds me of the joke where if you lend me a fiver I'll repay the £5 I owe you.

 

[AshfordLad]

Redwood doesn't mention subsidies for businesses. Just tax cuts and benefits raises for consumers. Who pay the tariffs in the first place.

Also note his use of 'could'. About as binding as 'let's fund our NHS instead.'

Saying it out loud would be counter productive now wouldn't it.

Tax everything from bacon to BMWs and hand that money over to Big pharma, banks and fintech.

 

[Wibble]

Why are you for the Euro? Aren't the UK in a better position with the Pound Sterling?

In a general sense I'd like the EU become more like a single country of federated states over time.

 

[711]

In a general sense I'd like the EU become more like a single country of federated states over time.

Would you like to see Australia join a federation with Indonesia and the Philippines in the same way?

 

[The Outsider]

When you said you didn't get your information from the Daily Express, this makes things more clear - on the same site
Some examples - "just in" - "Muslims riot in Brussels" this is about Morocco's World Cup qualification over a week ago
or maybe - "Second migrant wave to Europe Immanent" with a picture similar to Farage's famous one - at least you would have thought they could spell imminent

So it's shoot the messenger rather than comment on the message.

So lets comment on the another thing that was in the mainstream press about what the ECB tried to do recently to Italy when several of its banks were in trouble, it instructed those banks to seize retail customer deposits to support the Banks' capital shortfall. Italy found that politically unacceptable and instead against ECB rules supported those banks via State help.

This suggests to me big problems are brewing financially in the EU that are going to flare up at some point down the line as individual countries are trapped within EU rules that are not flexible enough for their economies. A major known one is devaluation which cannot be done.

 

[Abizzz]

Looks like Spain might be approaching a crisis over funding it's pensions:

http://investmentwatchblog.com/will-spain-be-the-first-to-default-on-pensions/

So it's shoot the messenger rather than comment on the message.

So lets comment on the another thing that was in the mainstream press about what the ECB tried to do recently to Italy when several of its banks were in trouble, it instructed those banks to seize retail customer deposits to support the Banks' capital shortfall. Italy found that politically unacceptable and instead against ECB rules supported those banks via State help.

This suggests to me big problems are brewing financially in the EU that are going to flare up at some point down the line as individual countries are trapped within EU rules that are not flexible enough for their economies. A major known one is devaluation which cannot be done.

I counted a full six stories of financial doom on their front page. Why pick the one you did, why not this one (http://investmentwatchblog.com/we-a...-credit-default-cycle-in-our-nations-history/), surely a lot more relevant to brexit then some Spanish pensions!? Or this one: http://investmentwatchblog.com/bank...flash-crash-in-early-2018-seems-quite-likely/ We could also go straight nutter and choose this one: http://investmentwatchblog.com/proof-uranium-one-was-involved-in-the-oregon-standoff/
.
How is Detroit ever going to rebound if it is shackled to the same dollar as Silicon Valley? How can the Bronx ever get by next to Manhattan without devaluing it's currency? Fiscal union you say? Look at reality I say, there is very little to show of a fiscal union between Michigan, Ohio and say California.

 

[Adebesi]

I counted a full six stories of financial doom on their front page. Why pick the one you did, why not this one (http://investmentwatchblog.com/we-a...-credit-default-cycle-in-our-nations-history/), surely a lot more relevant to brexit then some Spanish pensions!? Or this one: http://investmentwatchblog.com/bank...flash-crash-in-early-2018-seems-quite-likely/ We could also go straight nutter and choose this one: http://investmentwatchblog.com/proof-uranium-one-was-involved-in-the-oregon-standoff/
.
How is Detroit ever going to rebound if it is shackled to the same dollar as Silicon Valley? How can the Bronx ever get by next to Manhattan without devaluing it's currency? Fiscal union you say? Look at reality I say, there is very little to show of a fiscal union between Michigan, Ohio and say California.

Of course there is. When a plant is shut down in Ohio, the government can provide assistance, using money collected from the taxes of wealthy Californians and New Yorkers (as well as everyone else of course), and there is no uproar about it. Within the confines of a nation state you can have a limited policy of redistribution, even in a country like the US which is aghast at anything that smells remotely like socialism. It is the norm. The same goes in the UK, if a plant shuts in Sunderland, people in London are on the hook for it but nobody bats an eyelid, it isnt news, it isnt even seen as redistribution, it is just everyone in the country paying their tax and that money then being used however it is needed. We all know which parts of the country are net contributors or net beneficiaries of state funding but it isnt seen as unfair because everyone acknowledges that the ones who pay more are richer.

The same just isnt true in the EU. Germany is like the London or the EU, and Greece is like the Sunderland, but when Greece gets into trouble the Germans dont foot the bill, they extend a loan. Until that changes the euro's problems wont go away.

 

[C3Pique]

The land of milk and honey just got downgraded to bread and water.

 

[C3Pique]

But look on the bright side, we got that £350m back!

 

[711]

Check out @BBCNews’s Tweet:

The land of milk and honey just got downgraded to bread and water.

I hardly ever see a forecast like this from the OBR, and it's predecessors, that doesn't show a miraculous improvement in the longer term. It does make me suspicious of their honesty.

 

[Rightnr]

Absolutely fuming. The country's infrastructure is crap but we'll spend 3bn on a idioitic cause.

 

[Massive Spanner]

£3bn won't be remotely enough to implement that automated border they're blabbing on about.

 

[Adebesi]

£3bn won't be remotely enough to implement that automated border they're blabbing on about.

Everyone knows that. But you have to pick a reasonable sounding number to start off with, then we can all sit back and watch the cost of it inevitably escalate once we get past the point where anyone can point out this probably isnt value for money after all.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

£3bn won't be remotely enough to implement that automated border they're blabbing on about.

The £3bn is not just for the Irish border, it's for everything including the lorry parks , civil servants, customs officers etc throughout the UK and especially Dover. But of course the money for that was to come from the tariffs levied (paid by the British people) or was that for the NHS or is it the money John Redwood is going to give back to the people, so confusing when one portion of money does so many things.

At least Nicky Morgan finally confirmed today that there is no pot of gold for the NHS after Brexit.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

So it's shoot the messenger rather than comment on the message.

So lets comment on the another thing that was in the mainstream press about what the ECB tried to do recently to Italy when several of its banks were in trouble, it instructed those banks to seize retail customer deposits to support the Banks' capital shortfall. Italy found that politically unacceptable and instead against ECB rules supported those banks via State help.

This suggests to me big problems are brewing financially in the EU that are going to flare up at some point down the line as individual countries are trapped within EU rules that are not flexible enough for their economies. A major known one is devaluation which cannot be done.

My point is that obviously that site promotes inaccurate and sensationalist material.
As for the Spanish pensions how does this affect the UK and Brexit?

 

[Pexbo]

But look on the bright side, we got that £350m back!

THREE BILLION.

ON PREPARATIONS.

LET THAT feckING SINK IN A MINUTE.

I can't wait to leave this fecking country.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

The land of milk and honey just got downgraded to bread and water.

Where's the economic disaster then?

 

[711]

THREE BILLION.

ON PREPARATIONS.

LET THAT feckING SINK IN A MINUTE.

I can't wait to leave this fecking country.

And yet so predictable. When I look round the world there doesn't seem to be any shortage of stupidities though, but good luck with the search.

 

[Adebesi]

New Zealand. Never been there, know very little about the place, but people I know who say they want to wash their hands of the rest of the world and live a quiet life as subsistence farmers always seem to settle on New Zealand.

 

[Rightnr]

Where's the economic disaster then?

Lol, is this a serious post? Do you think that is sufficient to resolve the multitude of issues this country faces? Also, what happened to Brexiters' lack of faith in forecasts.

All of a sudden, anything that confirms the deluded's view of the world is 100% true and believable.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Lol, is this a serious post? Do you think that is sufficient to resolve the multitude of issues this country faces? Also, what happened to Brexiters' lack of faith in forecasts.

All of a sudden, anything that confirms the deluded's view of the world is 100% true and believable.

I am not a Brexiteer, just a realist. Those figures don't show us coming close to to a recession. Realistically after Brexit and all that is involved that would be decent growth.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Where's the economic disaster then?

Ignoring the large downgrade -
Genuine question, is this taking account of reverting to WTO rules or assuming a continuation of trading as you were?

 

[Adebesi]

Ignoring the large downgrade -
Genuine question, is this taking account of reverting to WTO rules or assuming a continuation of trading as you were?

Surely the latter. I think everyone is still working on the assumption a deal will be reached in the end. WTO rules would surely be much worse, regardless of what Brexiters say. I think even most of them would admit in the short term it will be a fair bit bumpier than these numbers imply. As evidenced by the ones that are also financial advisors telling investors to get their money the hell out of the UK.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Surely the latter. I think everyone is still working on the assumption a deal will be reached in the end. WTO rules would surely be much worse, regardless of what Brexiters say. I think even most of them would admit in the short term it will be a fair bit bumpier than these numbers imply. As evidenced by the ones that are also financial advisors telling investors to get their money the hell out of the UK.

That's what I thought too and as said all along the real economic disaster would happen if the UK left with no deal and reverting to WTO rules.

Just imagine if they announced a cancellation of Brexit today , how much the Uk economy would improve overnight.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Ignoring the large downgrade -
Genuine question, is this taking account of reverting to WTO rules or assuming a continuation of trading as you were?

France's growth since from 12 - 16 was 0.2, 0.6, 0.7, 1.0 & 1.1, how bad is it there?

I doubt these take into account WTO rules. I would be amazed if the UK performed that well after Brexit whatever the case. I would see that as a result, all things considered.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

France's growth since from 12 - 16 was 0.2, 0.6, 0.7, 1.0 & 1.1, how bad is it there?

I doubt these take into account WTO rules. I would be amazed if the UK performed that well after Brexit whatever the case. I would see that as a result, all things considered.

As I said all along the UK was way ahead of the EU including France up until 2015/16 but decided to shoot itself in the foot. Even your figures show a trend in an upwards direction for France in slower way but they're still improving.. Since the UK decided to do the deed what is the trend for the UK growth, the opposite and that's without taking into account WTO.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

As I said all along the UK was way ahead of the EU including France up until 2015/16 but decided to shoot itself in the foot. Even your figures show a trend in an upwards direction for France in slower way but they're still improving.. Since the UK decided to do the deed what is the trend for the UK growth, the opposite and that's without taking into account WTO.

If the UK can leave the EU, the single market, customs union and we can then make trade deals freely with out countries whilst maintaining that growth then I would say that Brexit was a success. Future prospects would then all depend on how the country was managed after that of course.

That said, I'm hugely sceptical we will do that well.