Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Cheesy said:
As has often been pointed out, if Remain had won and Cameron had taken that as a mandate to join the Euro and advocate a full-on federalist European state because a slim majority supported continuing our membership of the EU then there'd have been an uproar from those who wanted out.

So I'm not particularly sure as to why a slim majority in the favour of exiting now warrants the most extreme iteration of that outcome. Other than politicians trying to save their own skin.
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I do agree with you. But at the same time, the problem with the Norway model is that it suits nobody. I mean it is the compromise that gives both sides a little bit of what they want. The Brexiters get to say we did technically exit, and the Remainers get to keep the single market. But during the election campaign nobody would come out and say what was on offer was what Norway has, because everyone could see it was completely pointless. It doesnt solve the immigration issue that was the key factor for most Brexiters (I think), it just leaves us in the same position we were in before but with dramatically reduced influence.


Its not a desirable outcome at all and I dont think anyone will be that happy with it. But by virtue of not being anyone's worst outcome, it may well end up being the most viable option in the end.
 
Adebesi said:
I do agree with you. But at the same time, the problem with the Norway model is that it suits nobody. I mean it is the compromise that gives both sides a little bit of what they want. The Brexiters get to say we did technically exit, and the Remainers get to keep the single market. But during the election campaign nobody would come out and say what was on offer was what Norway has, because everyone could see it was completely pointless. It doesnt solve the immigration issue that was the key factor for most Brexiters (I think), it just leaves us in the same position we were in before but with dramatically reduced influence.


Its not a desirable outcome at all and I dont think anyone will be that happy with it. But by virtue of not being anyone's worst outcome, it may well end up being the most viable option in the end.
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Yeah, that's admittedly a fair point. Which is why I reckon it'd probably have made more sense to clarify during the referendum which option we'd opt for if we left, to the extent where it'd have been detailed quite clearly in the question itself. As a compromise it doesn't suit anyone but at the same time going for it completely ignores the large minority who not only don't support that but didn't opt to leave at all. And while concerns like immigration were central to the vote, again - anyone can reasonably counter that it wasn't a referendum about immigration...however much it may have been a referendum about immigration.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-4765_en.htm

For those still thinking that the UK can cherry-pick, have their cake and eat it or to carry on trading as they are without adopting the 4 freedoms
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  • The Eurozone needs a more complete Banking Union and a fiscal capacity with a finance minister. The EU needs a more integrated Capital Markets Union. Such increased risk sharing needs common rules and common enforcement.
I instinctively feel that not being part of that might be a good thing.
  • The UK will, of course, have access to the Single Market. But this is different from being part of the Single Market.
  • And a good deal on our future relationship should facilitate this access as much as possible. And avoid a situation where trade would happen under the WTO rules for goods and services.
More positive than previous statements I'd have thought.


Yes the City will still suffer hugely, but we knew that anyway I'm afraid.
 
Cheesy said:
Yeah, that's admittedly a fair point. Which is why I reckon it'd probably have made more sense to clarify during the referendum which option we'd opt for if we left, to the extent where it'd have been detailed quite clearly in the question itself. As a compromise it doesn't suit anyone but at the same time going for it completely ignores the large minority who not only don't support that but didn't opt to leave at all. And while concerns like immigration were central to the vote, again - anyone can reasonably counter that it wasn't a referendum about immigration...however much it may have been a referendum about immigration.
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Itd have made sense in a rational world where people wanted to honestly lay out the options so that people could actually decide. But it would make no sense at all in the actual world we live in where people on the Brexit side wanted to win a referendum. Because there is no chance Vote Leave wouldve won offering that.
 
712 said:
  • The Eurozone needs a more complete Banking Union and a fiscal capacity with a finance minister. The EU needs a more integrated Capital Markets Union. Such increased risk sharing needs common rules and common enforcement.
I instinctively feel that not being part of that might be a good thing.
  • The UK will, of course, have access to the Single Market. But this is different from being part of the Single Market.
  • And a good deal on our future relationship should facilitate this access as much as possible. And avoid a situation where trade would happen under the WTO rules for goods and services.
More positive than previous statements I'd have thought.


Yes the City will still suffer hugely, but we knew that anyway I'm afraid.
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If the UK remained they would never have been forced to join the Euro. With them gone all the EU countries will have the Euro eventually and makes sense that they are all going in the same direction.

As for the single Market, this has been the sentiment all along, the EU want a good deal with the UK but not at the expense of the integrity of the EU so this talk of who needs who more is pointless, the EU will not budge on their principles and have said so since the beginning. The government posturing and claiming their deep and special relationship is a waste of time, the EU will stick to the rules no matter what.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-4765_en.htm

For those still thinking that the UK can cherry-pick, have their cake and eat it or to carry on trading as they are without adopting the 4 freedoms
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Its old hat Paul, he's been saying this since the beginning, its nothing new, its not fooling anybody, no matter how many times he repeats it, they will take the money, in exchange for trade, or we all go over the cliff together, with Barnier still rattling his sabre as they crash on to the rocks below.
Theresa, Davis, Boris, Barnier, Juncker, Tusk, Macron and Merkel (although she may have gone already!) all piled upon on top of each other, all unable to save Europe!
 
I Believe said:
Its old hat Paul, he's been saying this since the beginning, its nothing new, its not fooling anybody, no matter how many times he repeats it, they will take the money, in exchange for trade, or we all go over the cliff together, with Barnier still rattling his sabre as they crash on to the rocks below.
Theresa, Davis, Boris, Barnier, Juncker, Tusk, Macron and Merkel (although she may have gone already!) all piled upon on top of each other, all unable to save Europe!
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Yes it's old hat because the EU keep telling the UK government the same thing over and over again but reality doesn't sink in - it's not going to change, the EU are bewildered that the government won't accept it. The negotiations will go nowhere until the Uk accept that they have to follow the EU rules. Germany will sort itself out and there will only be one country going over the cliff if they don't continue to want to do self-harm. The EU is not the one in danger and if the Uk government don't wake up in the coming weeks it will be too late.
The EU is not the one losing passport rights, the EU is not the one that will be reverting to WTO rules with every single country. The EU is not the one who will have no treaties in place - never mind the trade scenario which is 7 to 1 at worst in favour of the EU.

If the government continue to ignore this then yes I feel sorry for all the British people even the ones who were daft enough to do this.

If I were a sadistic so-and-so I could hope that there is no agreement and that it all goes to pot and the doomsday scenarios all come true, fortunately I don't believe that will happen because even this incompetent government will surely wake up and smell the coffee at some point. Just depends on how much damage is done in the meantime.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
but reality doesn't sink in
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Its only reality when both sides agree on something, until then its both sides posturing, showing their sabres and occasionally giving them a good rattle!

Paul the Wolf said:
The EU is not the one in danger
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Oh but it is Paul, fundamentally at its worst its in danger of completely unravelling, because some EU states are going to get hit more than others and the centre cannot hold. Britain however will recover, it will take time of course, but it will recover, whereas the EU will be in grave danger of disintegrating, only a strong Germany can hold them together and at the moment Germany can't agree on its own government, far less the running of a European super state.

Paul the Wolf said:
I feel sorry for all the British people even the ones who were daft enough to do this.
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No, Paul that sounds like a porky to me, if your doomsday scenario comes true, you will be elated... now come on admit it?:nono:
 
I Believe said:
Its only reality when both sides agree on something, until then its both sides posturing, showing their sabres and occasionally giving them a good rattle!

Oh but it is Paul, fundamentally at its worst its in danger of completely unravelling, because some EU states are going to get hit more than others and the centre cannot hold. Britain however will recover, it will take time of course, but it will recover, whereas the EU will be in grave danger of disintegrating, only a strong Germany can hold them together and at the moment Germany can't agree on its own government, far less the running of a European super state.

No, Paul that sounds like a porky to me, if your doomsday scenario comes true, you will be elated... now come on admit it?:nono:
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No the Uk abides by the rules or not, it's that simple, there's no negotiation on that, there is no negotiation on standards , there is no negotiation on the 4 freedoms , this is why the talks are going nowhere. The Uk have to come up with a sensible solution to Ireland, the Uk have to pay what they are committed to. The only real negotiation is currently on citizens rights. This clearly has not yet sunk into the government or Brexiters minds because they do not understand the EU. There's no sabre rattling it's just the way it is, take it or leave it.
If these three points are resolved then they will talk future agreements but again that will depend on the UK accepting the EU rules.

Germany does not have a virtual two party system like the UK so is more complicated like many countries in Europe, even then May has a minority government
Only in Brexiters minds is the EU unravelling, just wishful thinking, the UK leaving will probably be the best thing for it, no whingeing Poms.

I have not yet come to the point where I hope the UK collapses but I admit, the more ridiculous things that happen day after day it is tempting to think that they get all they deserve.
 
Member 5225 said:
Wow, not even sure where to start with that totally biased one-sided, frankly rude response!
Anyways here’s an example:
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It is mild compared to the reality. There are things that could be improved which is true of everything in life but throwing away the 99% that is advantageous on the basis of the 1% is idiotic and especially as the 1% most voted for won't be addressed by leaving. It is the most self destructive act any modern developed nation nation has ever inflicted upon itself since I can't think when and largely based on utter lies and racist dog whistling or worse. The equivalent of shooting yourself in the head to cure a headache that your mate down the pub blamed on migrants.

And why would a popularist vote grabbing tweet about something that doesn't exist from Nick Clegg mean anything? The man so clueless that he took his voters trust and pissed it away in a coalition with the Tories. Barnier was talking about a defense policy and not an EU army replacing our national army in any case. Not that I'd have a problem with an EU army in the long term anyway.
 
I Believe said:
Its only reality when both sides agree on something, until then its both sides posturing, showing their sabres and occasionally giving them a good rattle!
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Reality doesn't depend on people agreeing at all.

Oh but it is Paul, fundamentally at its worst its in danger of completely unravelling, because some EU states are going to get hit more than others and the centre cannot hold. Britain however will recover, it will take time of course, but it will recover, whereas the EU will be in grave danger of disintegrating, only a strong Germany can hold them together and at the moment Germany can't agree on its own government, far less the running of a European super state.
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The EU is in danger of unraveling? Really? Confirmational bias much?

No, Paul that sounds like a porky to me, if your doomsday scenario comes true, you will be elated... now come on admit it?:nono:
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People like Paul deeply fear the inevitably negative outcome. If he didn't care he wouldn't waste his time posting.
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
If these three points are resolved then they will talk future agreements but again that will depend on the UK accepting the EU rules.
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Paul, how can these things be resolved if according to you there is no negotiation, that Britain has to take it or leave it? Surely the EU believes there is a negotiated settlement to be had, otherwise why not say to the British "go on leave then, see if we care"

EU not making sense here... but what else is new? Or could it be the money? if we don't stump up, then bleak days ahead in this EU budget, let alone what follows.

The EU as a political entity has been on a slow decline towards oblivion, or as Juncker sees it, a fully integrated USE, its only been the British holding things up, once we're gone it will be whoosh downhill to the buffers double quick, especially now its looks like Mrs Merkel is on her last round up!
Heh, but what a chance for Macron now? At last France's chance to step up to the plate and become the leading power in the EU, wonder if he will have the nerve, Germany rudderless, Britain gone, the way is clear!

Paul the Wolf said:
I have not yet come to the point where I hope the UK collapses but I admit, the more ridiculous things that happen day after day it is tempting to think that they get all they deserve.
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That's more like it Paul, you'll be cheering from the roof tops, thanking your lucky stars you didn't stay in Britain, smart move!;)
 
I would say there is a reasonable chance the EU will unravel. No idea what kind of odds I would put on it but not insignificant. Between the migrant crisis, the unresolved debt crisis and the euro-area's unwillingness to implement a fiscal transfer mechanism, the rise of nationalism in some countries, the precedent set by a country having left and the concentration of power in the hands of Germany once that country is out, it has to be a risk. Though of course with the EU's world class ability to muddle through and kick problems down the road, I would say there is a better than evens chance of it holding together.
 
Adebesi said:
I would say there is a reasonable chance the EU will unravel. No idea what kind of odds I would put on it but not insignificant. Between the migrant crisis, the unresolved debt crisis and the euro-area's unwillingness to implement a fiscal transfer mechanism, the rise of nationalism in some countries, the precedent set by a country having left and the concentration of power in the hands of Germany once that country is out, it has to be a risk. Though of course with the EU's world class ability to muddle through and kick problems down the road, I would say there is a better than evens chance of it holding together.
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Not sure about that and it sounds like wishful thinking in all honesty. I think the growing anti-EU sentiment has dissapated particularly after seeing the clusterfeck the UK has gone through
 
Wibble said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-medicines-agency-amsterdam-brexit-relocation
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nd-paris-goldman-sachs-names-post-brexit-hubs

This is going well.
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Obviously European agencies are going to leave.

Goldman Sachs are currently building a new European headquarters in London whilst their operations in Paris and Frankfurt as described as 'hubs' The article also states UBS are saying that original estimates they would move one fifth of their London workforce were too severe

It all chimes with Michael Bloomberg's recent insistence that whilst Brexit will cause some pain to the City it will remain Europe's most important financial centre.
 
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FlawlessThaw said:
Not sure about that. I think the growing anti-EU sentiment has dissapated particularly after seeing the clusterfeck the UK has gone through
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Anti EU sentiment does seem to have died down a bit but I didnt even mention that as one of the possible reasons for its disintegration. I am talking about more structural problems - though those problems do then feed into the public perception. Take the lack of a fiscal transfer mechanism, that means debt crises in the South are essentially built into the system. The underlying problems we had with Greece were never actually dealt with, they treated the symptoms, not the cause. The country has the same amount of debt it had before, it is no more likely to be able to pay it than it was before, so it would be bold to predict that issue wont rear its head again in a few years. Italy still has issues.

And the migrant crisis. It may not be causing as much angst among voters right now as it was 12 months ago, but it is creating plenty of problems between national governments. These may well not prove terminal, but would you bet your house they wont? If some countries are taking the whole burden on themselves and others point-blank refuse to take anyone in to relieve the pressure on their EU partners, what does that do to trust between EU members?

As I said, I am not predicting the EU will fail, Im saying its a possibility. The EU could certainly take the opportunity presented by the exit of one of its most obstructionist members to actually properly integrate and create a more cohesive EU economy, but I dont think Britain can take full responsibility for the EU's inertia. It seems to be in its DNA.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Obviously European agencies are going to leave.

Goldman Sachs are currently building a new European headquarters in London whilst their operations in Paris and Frankfurt as described as 'hubs' The article also states UBS are saying that original estimates they would move one fifth of their London workforce wre too severe

It all chimes with Michael Bloomberg's recent insistence that whilst Brexit will cause some pain to the City it will remain Europe's most important financial centre.
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More huge negatives as the direct result of Brexit. Benefits to date - zero.

On track for a huge clusterfeck.
 
I Believe said:
Paul, how can these things be resolved if according to you there is no negotiation, that Britain has to take it or leave it? Surely the EU believes there is a negotiated settlement to be had, otherwise why not say to the British "go on leave then, see if we care"

EU not making sense here... but what else is new? Or could it be the money? if we don't stump up, then bleak days ahead in this EU budget, let alone what follows.

The EU as a political entity has been on a slow decline towards oblivion, or as Juncker sees it, a fully integrated USE, its only been the British holding things up, once we're gone it will be whoosh downhill to the buffers double quick, especially now its looks like Mrs Merkel is on her last round up!
Heh, but what a chance for Macron now? At last France's chance to step up to the plate and become the leading power in the EU, wonder if he will have the nerve, Germany rudderless, Britain gone, the way is clear!



That's more like it Paul, you'll be cheering from the roof tops, thanking your lucky stars you didn't stay in Britain, smart move!;)
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You can keep making up your CCL stories, a few weeks ago it was Merkel rushing in some time in October to do the deal with May and Germany was the power than ran the EU. You still think Juncker is a major influence but only Brexiters think this. The money is peanuts as we keep saying , it might seem a lot to the UK because they're a bit brassic.
You have to understand it's not about the money but the Uk will still have to pay, there's a total misunderstanding at what's at stake by the Brexiters.
The negotiation is about citizens rights, the Uk have to resolve the Irish border because if they don't there is no choice but a Hard Border which nobody wants and the Uk have to pay, no choice. They don't get a 50% discount for the government being complete incompetents.

If you haven't noticed it's the Uk that are gradually sinking in the wrong direction since the Brexit vote whereas although the EU started a slower recovery than the UK, they are going in the opposite direction.

Sticking your figures in your ears and whistling Rule Britannia won't change reality.
 
Wibble said:
More huge negatives as the direct result of Brexit. Benefits to date - zero.

On track for a huge clusterfeck.
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In reality the positives will take 10 years to come to fruition and it depends on what deal an be achieved. One benefit, depending on your point of view, has been the effect on the house prices in London.
 
Stanley Road said:
maybe they're right. After all it was him that blocked a rise in corporation tax across the eu so he could protect his tax free scams.
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That's where we agree. And then he goes around all sanctimonious telling others that tax heavens are bad.:lol:
 
Actually the Isle of Man isnt bad either. Its not heaven, I dont think anyone would say it is. But there is a point where, on a clear day, you can see England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales, depending on what direction you are facing. The day I was there was not a clear day, but I was told it does happen. So, you know... it does have that going for it.
 
Stanley Road said:
maybe they're right. After all it was him that blocked a rise in corporation tax across the eu so he could protect his tax free scams.
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Bearing in mind that the Uk has one of the lowest in Europe and wants to reduce it even further with ardent Brexiters like Owen Paterson wanting the Uk to be more like Singapore , you don't see the irony?
 
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