Yawn
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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Its seems that the UK close relationship with the US has just been bombardiered. Is that the anomaly or is it an early sign of what's in store?
Mail readers are not happy.
Just saw this tagline -
"Why HAS Trump let Britain down? ALEX BRUMMER says no one could have guessed the President would turn his fire on US's closest Anglo-Saxon allies"
Eh? Was he born yesterday?!
Trump was never pro UK. He made that quite clear when he recommend that Cyprus should adopt and immediately announce even more liberal financial service policies than it already has so that it can try to take advantage of the inevitable relocations that will occur during the period of confusion caused by Brexit. He was always pro Brexit a process of self harm that will weaken both the EU and the UK. Now the UK can negotiate a trade deal not as part of a continent which is equal in economic strength as the US is but as a junior partner.
You have to be a mentalist to believe a word Trump says. The man will say anything to please a crowd. He's the ultimate salesman.
Agree completely though I suspect this is more driven by him being a Russian stooge. In anycase this is exactly what Putin and Trump wanted. Every week I seem to have a moment where I'm like, jeeze I can't believe how stupid 52% of voters are.
Reality. Even if China and US wanted to give us deals, who does Gove and Fox think would dictate terms?
Its neither in the Russian Federation nor the United States of America interest to have a 3rd/4th economic/military superpower in the world. We've seen that after the Yalta conference. Europe was broken in half and everyone took a fair share of the spoils
And this UK 'friendship' with the US is the most overrated thing recent history had ever created. If there was some real friendship and respect then why on earth the US didn't join the WW2 immediately? Why humiliate this big friend of theirs during the Suez crisis? The very reason Obama sweated so much to keep the UK inside the EU was to have a US vote (and veto) in the Union. Trump disagreed with that notion and saw it as an opportunity to weaken the EU. There's little love and friendship when national interests or business come in place. Just ask the kurds, the republic of Vietnam's citizens or Saddam what a great friend one can have in the US.
If Europe truly want to be relevant then it must work as a combined unit and become truly independent. The Napoleonic wars, the 2 WWs and countless of other wars in Europe should be enough of a lesson for each and everyone one of us to realise that we need to work together.
The UK had a choice between being a big fish in a small pond or be the small fish in the ocean. Its a shame that it chose the latter.
That's my conclusion too, and the reason that I went from being anti-EU about 10 years ago to fully supporting a much stronger union today. Globalization is accelerating at a rate far beyond what seemed possible even a short time ago, and either we adapt to the realities of the world or we end up a victim of it.
Europe will never be truly independent until the US airbases and other US military bases leave.
Why were you anti 10 years ago?
Doesn't globalization essentially mean tariff free trade on a worldwide basis?
Probably for many of the same reasons some people are today, related to the cumbersome structures, democratic accountability (and tendency to ride roughshod over national votes) and corruption (although I think they've improved significantly over the last decade).
The difference for me is that now I see the necessity of the project, and I'd far rather start with something imperfect and improve it, than reject it and face the consequences that implies. The future is powerful blocs with their own distinct goals and motives, and the choice we're faced with is either to be part of one of those blocs or to be a puppet on the sidelines. That's why the argument about us in the EU being merely a small part of something bigger (and that being a negative) is an irrelevance to my mind. That's the outcome regardless of what we choose, so we either are a part and have a say in the future, or we isolate ourselves and become a plaything of far more powerful actors.
I think we got so used to the post-WW2 order that we are struggling to recognize how quickly it's being dismantled. The world is heating up, and huge change will come regardless of whether we want it or accept it.
Well I could get some of that if all countries within a block prospered equally and paid their fair share equally but they don't. Some get wealthier, some get poorer, some have to follow the rules while some are allowed to ignore them. Tax havens exist within it while they are frowned upon outside it. Cheap labour in the eastern European countries has created a race to the bottom, create a common salary and watch those jobs come back to the west where the quality and knowledge might be of a higher level. Let Europe become a really fantastic place where everyone in every country feels better off and I may come round to your way of thinking. Until then I wont.
Our nuclear war fetishist from the election has returned to our screens.
Good points!
That's the primary reason we are leaving, there is no way the EU is going to reform itself, in the way Britain wants, the last forty years have shown us that, all the treaty's signed are sacrosanct they cannot be amended and the Treaty of Rome dictates most of what came afterwards, the ultimate Goal being the United States of Europe. In the meantime the EU 'gravy train' is so big now, with so many 'sucking it up', none of EU turkeys will be voting for Christmas, ever!
Britain will never give up the Pound Sterling hence we will therefore always be in the second division of the EU, only countries in the Euro zone will set the agenda, hence we need to leave and let Germany or maybe France, if Macron can take advantage of Mrs Merkels local difficulties with her far right, to shape the EU to suit its/their own requirements.
Since WW2 the US has used the forerunners of the EU to underpin NATO and as a secondary (after NATO) bulwark against Russia, but it no longer needs Britain to be part of the EU to assist in these matters, as far as the Americans are concerned we can now stand as an independent member of NATO, since we are one of the few NATO members actually contributing the equivalent of 2% of GDP to defence spending (well until Jeremy gets in anyway!).
'Hard' or 'Soft' Brexit in the end will not matter that much, Britain will never be a leading light in the EU and therefore needs to be out of the whole sorry mess and go its own way.
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Is Britain really poorer than before we joined? You could maybe make an argument that maybe we could have been richer without joining, but it's completely theoretical and just in terms of national GDP we're a far richer country than we were back then.
As for the bigger point about the issues with the union, that's kind of my point. I reached the point where the bigger picture mattered more than any of those deficiencies. Maybe you won't ever come to the same conclusion, but that was the main trigger for me. I think there will come a point where we're outside looking in and deeply regretting our choices.
How do you know that further integration will make all countries more equal? Its an unknown
How do you know uk will not eventually thrive outside the eu? Its an unknown
Both are a leap of faith
I'm thinking beyond economics though. Even if the countries are never equal (and I do think they're heading in that direction) I still think there are bigger issues at play soon. There will soon be 3 or 4 superpowers, and that's going to change everything, especially as we can't rely on America any more to defend our interests (not that we ever really could).
Beyond economics theres fom which i am not a fan of and theres the euro which is the worst idea ever.
What else is there?
Way to mangle your metaphors. Given that the EU have just watched the turkeys vote for Christmas and can see how well it is going they are unlikely to follow us down this idiotic path.
Our retention of sterling made bugger all difference to our voice within Europe. I'm sure the EU would have preferred us to be within the single currency to further stabilise it as the 2nd largest EU economy but the fact we weren't did not stop us having the third highest number of seats within the EU parliament or stop us setting ourselves up as the financial clearing house for the whole of the Eurozone. Swings in the €/£ exchange rate will have made minor ripples in EU/UK trade but that would largely cancel itself out over time so the only people who really suffered as a result of the UK retaining sterling were those of us who regularly travel into Europe and are therefore open to exploitation by the banks and exchanges.
You do know that all the EU countries are separate members of NATO, not part of some block deal right? Indeed some like Malta, Ireland and Cyprus are not NATO members despite being in the EU.
Britain was a leading light in Europe in terms of research and the writing of common standards for business, we could have been at a political level too but rather than electing real MEPs we invariably filled our seats with pillocks from UKIP as a joke and rather than having serious journalists from the UK reporting on the facts from Brussels and Strasbourg we sent over clowns like Boris to make up stories about bananas. I agree that hard or soft brexit are unlikely to make much difference but only because I am sure that with the bunch of clowns we have running the show, if we allow brexit to happen we will be fecked for the foreseeable future, we're heading into a sorry mess and it's worrying that people still seem to be celebrating it.
If you believe that then there was no point in Tony Blair working his socks off trying to get us into the Euro! Come on lets talk sense here, the euro zone countries within the EU will determine the future path of the EU, in particular one that allows Germany to keep its products competitive, sure some of it may assist the UK, but not at the expense of the German economy. We have lost this battle with Germany, they are now the superpower in the EU, with Macron scrabbling like mad to hold on to their coat tails, the only chance he's got is the rise of the right in Germany will become a distraction for Merkel and she may take her eye off the ball, but I wouldn't count on it!
We have a comparable voice and comparable financial contribution to the EU as Germany, we just never used our voice properly preferring to disrupt rather than contribute or lead. This paranoia that Germany are running things for their own ends is all a bit sad really, where are they doing our businesses down through their aggressive and ruthlessly efficient business practices? Our car industry, oh no we fecked that up all on our own at around the same point we joined the EU. Our hugely successful electronics market which might start well with Dyson but is quickly let down by the Amstrads and Sinclairs. The fact is that we fecked over all our own industries in the pursuit of Thatcher's white collar dream (and desire to break the unions), it allowed us to set ourselves up as the financial clearing house for the EU which boosted our GDP but led to a huge disparity in wealth between London and the rest of the UK where the death of traditional industries was never addressed.
As for Blair, whilst I celebrated his election as a possible chance for Britain to reverse the decades of damage wrought by the tories nothing the self serving, lying, conniving twat did was in Britain's interest. I'm sure Tony saw himself as president of the EU some day just as he still refuses to see himself as a war criminal.
Not too sure what the current situation is in 2017 and with BREXIT on the horizon, but even without being in the Euro the UK had contingent liabilities and exposure of almost €150 billion to support the Euro and the ECB in 2012 according to this Research Paper of the Bruges Group.
Think about that !! €150 billion to get the EU off the hook if their Ponzi Schemes with the Greeks and the Italian Banks finally grind to a halt.
And yes, I know - the UK no longer has a AAA Rating, but after March 2019 will not have €150 billion of potential pay outs for a currency of which it isn't a member.
This Bruges Group paper by Bob Lyddon, who is an independent management consultant specializing in European banking, exposes the fact that the UK has a Maximum Possible Loss of €149.2 billion on current capital and commitments to the institutions involved in the financing of the EU and the euro. That does not include any exposure through the International Monetary Fund.
As one of two remaining large EU Member States with a AAA-rating the UK plays an important role in back-stopping the EU and the euro.
The largest exposure is €110 billion to the European Union, including a €60 billion exposure to the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism. A Member State’s guarantee of the European Union’s debts is joint and several, so if 26 Member States fail, the 27th pays everything.
The second largest exposure is to the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, €1.9 billion of paid-in capital and €35.7 billion of immediately callable, subscribed capital. The EIB views the UK’s contribution of €37.6 billion as representing 39.6% of its “Broad risk-bearing capacity”, even though the UK is only a 16% shareholder.
The third area of exposure is to the European Central Bank. The UK – through the Bank of England – has a risk on paper of only €1.6 billion, but the ECB counts the bullion and currency reserves of the National Central Banks into its own reserves and it spins a very large wheel in its operations. Those operations, it appears, are executed by National Central Banks as the ECB’s agent, whereby any losses are taken by the ECB. Losses of over €10 billion would eliminate the ECB’s capital: the ECB reportedly owns €40 billion of Greek government bonds, so a haircut of any size would eliminate its capital and cause it to call upon its shareholders. As such the UK, as an EU Member State, may have to bailout the ECB which would imperil the UK’s AAA rating.
The extra €35.7 billion of uncalled capital to the European Investment Bank is an on-going, unconditional and irrevocable commitment and a call upon all or part of it can be considered likely. As well as this, the exposure to the European Central Bank is a wild card risk to the United Kingdom.
No, we don't have the same voice because we are not in the euro zone, all the countries in the euro zone will set the agenda and pull in the same direction, it makes sense, if it happens to benefit us as well 'Yiphee' we've got some of the crumbs off the table lads lets go on the p***!.
Its true like Germany and I think Slovakia, we are the only countries who pay in more than we get out, we are not 'slurping much of the gravy', but we are making most of it!
Sad but true!
The Germans are not doing our businesses down, in some cases they are helping to support them and they will do so after we've left the EU because its in their own interests but in other cases they are beating us to the punch (as they tend to do in football terms, in case you hadn't notice).
This is not a case of anyone doing us down, we do that quite well on our own, decades of serious under investment, in particular in training, years of chronic poor management, of companies rewarding senior management inefficiency, being unable to get to grips with the fundamentals of productivity, these are the things doing us down, not the Germans! All this will have to change after Brexit and as a country we tend to excel when our backs are to the wall Yes, its a risk leaving the EU, but its an even bigger risk, no its a certainty, that to remain we are committing ourselves to everlasting second division status in the EU.
I have no idea where you're pulling that from (somewhere the sun don't shine) but it's not true.
Sweden, France (who pay more than the UK), the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Austria, and Denmark are all net contributors. Slovakia is not. Ireland was also a (very minor) net contributor in 2016.
Said I wasn't sure about Slovakia! According to Macron's own publicity France net is zero, as much in as they get out, which he wants to improve!
Have you been looking at the EU's Court of Auditors reports? they rank alongside 'Hanzel and Gretal' as great European fairy-tales. Look at the independent figures... if you can find any!
I've seen the financial report for 2016 which doesn't have that. Perhaps you can share where you saw that the UK and Germany are the only net contributors?
Apologies, I was not being precise, I should have said the top two net contributors.
However my observation still stands though, we are making more of the gravy running in the gravy train, than we are at slurping it!
(my source was BBC News Channel, EU BUDGET page, under NET CONTIBUTIONS)
Eh no, you were wrong, not "not being precise".
You would still be wrong thought wouldn't you... Germany and France contribute more net than us... oh and our net contributions are like 0.25% of Gross national income - and I think its pretty reasonable to think any deal in the future is going to cost us at least that - infact the tumbling value of the pound has almost certainly cost us a lot more than that so far but hey rule britania and fek the facts and all that
Not to worry, the UK "leaves" the EU eighteen months today - either without a deal or paying more than they are now, congratulations!
Hi Paul, click bait got you again!
I can see you've obviously circled the date on your calendar, bet you can't wait, better order the brass bands now to avoid disappointment.
See everything's going as planned , another month's talks gone, no progress (except in Davis's pea-brain) as I said it would be. Tick tock.
Germany, France and Italy contribute more of the total EU budget, mainly because of the rebate, but the two biggest NET contributors are Germany and Britain, (according the BBC News Channel) at least for another 18 months, unless The EU agrees to a transition period, which probably they won't.
Not sure its as planned, for most Brexiteers we should be out now, but Theresa has to put on a show to demonstrate how those nasty EU people are wanting to throw us out without a penny to our name, so in that sense it probably is going to plan.
Don't forget the British love an 'underdog' and where it started with us being portrayed as being unfriendly to the European's for wanting to leave our 'bosom buddies', now its becoming those nasty unelected EU Commissioners, wanting to 'tie us to the stake and give us a good lashing', what's the betting there will be a call here for a boycott of EU goods long before we leave, also just heard the White Cliffs of Dover have been saved for the Nation.