See Full Bloodied Red' post time 09.58 today report#17911 page 448
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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See Full Bloodied Red' post time 09.58 today report#17911 page 448
High unemployment amongst the under 25s.
There you go Paul, Brexit job creation, lots more customs office posts required, see working from Day1
No one as yet, we have to leave first, would have thought you would have known that Paul? Time to raise your game my friend!
Like the use of the word Unified
Bingo! The penny has dropped! The day after you leave, the UK is Billy no mates and can't trade with anyone.
As unemployment is so low in the UK and the EU people will be going home in their droves who are going to become the new customs officers - presume they will receive some kind of training
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You are making it sound that the eu needs the uk. However the one begging for a bold and close relationship is not the eu but the uk.
Could it be the case that the uk overplayed its importance with europe just as it had done with the US?
So, nothing? Bear in mind that you are not member of the ESM while France or Germany for example are actually part of it like 17 other members, France and Germany respectively guarantee(because that's what it is) respectively 140bn€ and 190bn€. Also and I will insist on this one, no money is sling around what they are talking about is the money that is available if a country fail to pay back the money that was lent.
The EIB is an investment/financial institution, I don't know the statutes but philosophically speaking you could perfectly be shareholders while not EU members, it wouldn't be shocking.
I believe its the interest of the Banks and Insurance companies that are the ones 'begging' for a deal.
We are 'Billy no mates' already according to you, but with 65m market we will find someone to trade with don't go worrying, we're not.
All those struggling on zero hours contracts will be lining-up for proper jobs, with HM Customs and with plenty of prospects for the future, on the job training at first, probably!
Yes exactly, we will not be there for the EU to dip its hand into our pockets, so which other Euro zone countries are going to take up the strain and do the heavy-lifting?
Greece is still in deep trouble and so are some of the others; becoming bankrupt is still a more than likely possibility, especially when the tourist trade starts to suffer with all those immigrants still wandering around in Italy and Greece in particular, also if as predicted the pound continues to suffer, Brits will be holidaying at home, in fact only this week the projection for an increase in people taking holidays at home in Britain has been muted something like a 10% increase in advanced bookings and of course with the Ryan Air debacle not being sorted any time soon, even Brits who want to get to Europe won't be able to get cheapo flights, not looking so good for the Costa's is it?
You haven't answered the question as to whom you will be trading with on 30th March 2019 or even the 30th March 2022 if you like -is the Uk going to starve while you try and line up someone to supply you some goods, that is after your WTO membership has been accepted - this is why the "remoaners" as you like to call them are concerned because the Brexiters have not thought for one second about the consequences of their actions.
Hadn't they better get a move on if you have only 18 months to train the customs officers, and the civil servants to deal with the documentation, the VAT returns and duties , don't forget the additional police for the huge traffic jams in Kent - an average of 4 lorries a minute pass through Dover although this will no doubt significantly reduce as trading falters .
You are not members of the ESM and we already know who is going to pay, the actual members of the damn mechanism.
With a no deal scenario planes won't be going in or out of the UK anyway - see Open Skies
Yes I have, the answer is whoever wants to trade with us, I must say you are worrying so much for someone who won't be here!
Yes, I will send them an email tomorrow, to 'get your finger out, start recruiting now!
Oh come on now Paul, this is not worthy of you, either we will have lots of traffic jams, or we won't, which is it?
That ones solved then? There is always the Atlantic routes, might even bring back Concord (without the 'e' this time)
Yes but do the ESM know they will have to pick up the 'risk levels' currently supported by Britain (I believe voluntarily) when we leave?
It's an EU agreement there as well , I'm afraid
From the start of this farce I wasn't going to be there, so I could have avoided the threads on Brexit altogether but I love a good laugh and can't avoid speaking my mind when something is so blindingly obviously ridiculous
Just offering a bit of friendly advice.
On the traffic jams, it reminded me of July 2016 when there were massive queues just because the French border control were short-staffed , imagine how little disruption is needed to cause chaos.
Oh well they will just have to shoot our planes down then! Nobody's going to stop us flying anywhere!
So I've noticed, perhaps a bit misguided but you have your views and you stick to them Paul
If the banks and insurances are working against the uk interest then why not kick them out?
It's not all about economics right? Its about other stuff like..........?
"there are no winners, only losers" what did Tusk mean?
I just realized something, the report is obsolete. The numbers are based on the fact that in 2012 the UK were AAA rated. Also this concerns the EIB and its bonds, not the ESM, at least not directly.
When you want to have a trip back to the UK after they leave you'll have to row across the North Sea
He meant that the UK are a valuable partner, we are stronger with them than without, he also meant that the EU are a valuable tool for the UK and they are stronger within it than outside. There are no winners.
That both the eu and the uk will suffer from this stupid act of self harm known as brexit. There again while the eu can afford sticking to its guns and values, same thing cant be said about the uk who seem to backpaddling furiously for a deal
As tusk also said the eu is glad that the uk is finally coming to its senses and moving away from the having the cake strategy. Hopefully the eu will give its go ahead to more talks but that can only be done if its satified that sufficient progress had been made
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For me it's bigger than economics, but a big part of our arguments have been about the economics so if we're wrong then you guys can certainly be unbearably smug about that. It won't happen because the economics are the clearest area of fault in your arguments, but hey.
The rest is a much more unclear picture of influence and power and who will be wielding it in the coming decades. It will have huge economic impacts, but it's also larger than that. Most Brexiteers appear to believe that the UK will continue to hold considerable influence in the years to come, whereas from my perspective the future is competing power blocs (US, EU, China, Russia). There isn't much point debating the details at the moment because it's too early and will inevitably lead to mockery/accusations of scaremongering. Suffice to say that I see the world heating up (in more ways than one) as the new superpowers flex their muscles and start to break free of American hegemony. We're already seeing this very clearly with Russia. The safest place for the U.K. in that scenario in my opinion is as part of an EU bloc that can separate itself from US interests to whatever degree it chooses, and not get dragged into an East vs West confrontation.
No....Not obsolete....
Like I said - no idea the € billions exposure today, 29.09.2017, but the same principle and rules and obligations still apply until the UK leaves the EU.
Maybe these are part of the financial obligations that Barnier and the others are talking about and need these to continue after BREXIT, but are genuinely scared to disclose this because that would change the whole ' is-BREXIT-stupid ' question in the heads of the BREXIT doubters / worriers in the UK.
Can't really think of any other reason why the EU still can't provide an itemised bill.
The Russians could break, economically, the EU within a couple of weeks by just refusing to sell them Russian oil and gas.
You have to be self-sufficient in energy to play with the big boys - ask Japan.
Yeah, the UK are in the same group than France and aren't with Germany anymore. The callable capital is based on the credit rating of the shareholder, the UK aren't AAA, they are AA with negative outlook, which means that the idea behind the report is obsolete.
Don't think so - only the total $billions of the UK's exposure in the report will have changed as a result of the rating downgrade.
On the other hand, post-BREXIT who can replace the UK's contribution to the overall total ?
Cyprus ? Slovenia ? Malta ?
Or is that going to be another way that France and Germany tighten their grip on the other members' ecomomies and budgets ?
At the risk of sounding like a broken disk, there is nothing to replace, this is about the EIB. And the assumption that is made here is that since the bonds are supposed to be of high quality, they are supposed to be fairly liquid which means that in theory the EIB could quickly raise an awful lot of money.
And the obvious answer to your question is that the bank will lend less money and will lend to better "clients".
The second largest exposure is to the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, €1.9 billion of paid-in capital and €35.7 billion of immediately callable, subscribed capital. The EIB views the UK’s contribution of €37.6 billion as representing 39.6% of its “Broad risk-bearing capacity”, even though the UK is only a 16% shareholder.
And the 'other' €100+/- billion or so ?
And the 'other' €100+/- billion or so ?
According to the report the UK guaranteed 110m, 60bn were supposed to be linked the EFSM but that was before its final transition which don't include the UK. Then you have the 37bn linked to the EIB and the AAA rating which is now a thing of the past.
I have to admit that I would like to now how the AAA shares are now distributed, at the time it was 1/3 for the UK and the rest for Germany. Surely Germany aren't guaranteeing everything.
It's almost like there's an ulterior motive behind Europe's heavy focus on switching to renewable energies..
Meanwhile the Brexiter foreign secretary was busy in one of his many charm offensives to promote Global Britain.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-on-camera-reciting-kipling-in-myanmar-temple
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-on-camera-reciting-kipling-in-myanmar-temple
Quite and interesting (and worrying) look at how gold flows are significantly distorting the UK's volume of non-EU exports.
http://news.sky.com/story/revealed-how-gold-takes-the-shine-off-britains-trade-figures-11057545
http://news.sky.com/story/revealed-how-gold-takes-the-shine-off-britains-trade-figures-11057545
Just before the Japanese Tsunami Reuters news were showing a clip of a car running in Tokyo running on water (Tap, sea water, tea etc) with a small conversion box inside.
Makes you wonder if that upset some major players too.
Find it hard to believe that as 'project fear'' did not use that information, assuming if it is true.
I struggle to understand why Johnson is seen as such a powerful political figure, any takers?