Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I Believe said:
Want to bet? There is no other way around it except everyone falling off the end of the proverbial cliff... lets be honest nobody really wants that, so both will have to blink at the same time, us on payments, the EU on movement of peoples and trade deals.. like I said simples!
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There's a third solution which I think will be the more likely to happen. The UK will pay a lump sum (which is basically the money it agreed to spend prior to Brexit but whom the EU will be careful not to mention it) and it will get a transitional deal in exchange. That will give the UK some breathing space to test the waters by trying to sign trade deals by itself. If its successful it will sign a CETA deal with the EU. If it isnt successful then the Tory party will lose the next GE, JC will move to an EFTA/EEA deal and the situation will remain pretty much the same to what it is now.

In my opinion this plan is already happening. No wonder why the incompetent but highly ambitious Boris is throwing his dummy at TM. If he + Fox fail to do their job then they will be the ones to blame for the Tory defeat in next GE and the failure of hard Brexit. That will ruin their political career for good. It would be very hard for someone who thinks he's Churchill Mark 2 to be remembered as the Chamberlain Mk2 (ie a person who placed so much effort on something that was pretty useless)
 
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JPRouve said:
And the conjuncture is that the government was despised, you noticed that we voted for pro EU presidents since then and in polls the majority is pro EU too. It's always important to know the context.
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That's conjecture -again- though. Just because since then, the French have voted in pro European presidents, that does not make the French people themselves pro European Union.

Correlation does not imply causation.

I would say that I could assume that since brexit, a lot of French may feel more affinity towards the Eu project, but I really don't know. It's quite possible. But the popularity of Marine le Pen did cause me to wonder. She is an awful candidate and a holocaust denier - and she still came extremely close to becoming your president!
 
devilish said:
That will give the UK some breathing space to test the waters by trying to sign trade deals by itself
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Thought you said we couldn't be 'in and out' at the same time?

I agree breathing space is necessary, but on the control of borders/ free movement issues as well as trade deals, otherwise your original proposition about being unacceptable to the Brexiteers is true. If Britain is to part with a penny, as continuing normal budget payments or a one off, it will need quid pro quo on Trade and Movement of peoples to get it acceptable to everyone! It depends on how much the EU really does want a deal , Junker blew it with Cameron, can't see Merkel a) letting Junker decide, b) making the same mistake again, unless of course, she really does want Germany to be the 'super power' in Europe, albeit through the guise of an integrated EU? But that's a different conspiracy theory, definitely requiring Britain being on the outside!;)
 
devilish said:
Its warmongering in Africa and the ME might make sense for them
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That was under previous administrations/presidents, don't think it will be the same with Trump, he said he's not into nation building and will 'squash' anyone who tries to attack the USA. Military planning on the back of a fag packet!
 
I Believe said:
Thought you said we couldn't be 'in and out' at the same time?

I agree breathing space is necessary, but on the control of borders/ free movement issues as well as trade deals, otherwise your original proposition about being unacceptable to the Brexiteers is true. If Britain is to part with a penny, as continuing normal budget payments or a one off, it will need quid pro quo on Trade and Movement of peoples to get it acceptable to everyone! It depends on how much the EU really does want a deal , Junker blew it with Cameron, can't see Merkel a) letting Junker decide, b) making the same mistake again, unless of course, she really does want Germany to be the 'super power' in Europe, albeit through the guise of an integrated EU? But that's a different conspiracy theory, definitely requiring Britain being on the outside!;)
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Transitional deal will be out of the EU (no rebates, no EU vote, no MEPs etc) but with temporary access to the single market. Its more similar to a temporary EEA/EFTA deal with rights to sign trade deals (or at least negotiating them). I also believe that the UK will have to backtrack on FOM but will retain its ability to sign trade deals during that period.

Also Juncker didn't blew anything with Cameron. Cameron expected the rules to change in a record short period of time and he tied it all of that to a threat which would hurt the UK more then it would hurt the EU. That wasn't feasable. Its would be like NS coming to Westminster saying that the UK should allow Scotland to remain in the EU else it will leave the UK. We all know what the answer to that would be.

Brexit was all Tory government doing. They promised a referendum to keep Ukip at bay. Then they expected the EU to bail them out which it didn't. Then they turned it into a frigging cat fight and went on losing the referendum.
 
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GazTheLegend said:
That's conjecture -again- though. Just because since then, the French have voted in pro European presidents, that does not make the French people themselves pro European Union.

Correlation does not imply causation.

I would say that I could assume that since brexit, a lot of French may feel more affinity towards the Eu project, but I really don't know. It's quite possible. But the popularity of Marine le Pen did cause me to wonder. She is an awful candidate and a holocaust denier - and she still came extremely close to becoming your president!
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Le Pen is a great example, her party is currently in a shamble because they want to pivot toward a EU friendly agenda and some leaders don't like it. The reason they want to be closer to the EU is because the french are closer to the EU.
Once again while I see your point, you are wrong because you don't know the country you are talking about, which is fine since we are not exactly easy to read.

PS: Le Pen isn't popular.
 
I Believe said:
That was under previous administrations/presidents, don't think it will be the same with Trump, he said he's not into nation building and will 'squash' anyone who tries to attack the USA. Military planning on the back of a fag packet!
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Just this week he said he wasn't into nation building or telling other countries how to run their affairs, and then about 5 minutes later insulted Venezuela and threatened to take action against them unless they restored democracy. He also threatened to wipe out North Korea, and impose sanctions on Cuba. None of these are what you'd traditionally consider 'isolationist' actions.
 
I Believe said:
Not really when you consider the alternatives;
Labour will try to win the next election by borrowing to such an extent our Great, Great, Great, Grandchildren will still be paying off the 'interest only' on the debt in 2080!
The Liberals want yet another Referendum on Brexit (some people never learn do they?) and are led by a man older than me (and that's saying something!).
The Greens want to fill the British islands with windmills on every conceivable hill top and turn off all electricity after 8.00pm each evening, to save energy and they want to save the planet for our 'up to their necks in debt' descendants.
SNP still want Scotland to float off over the north sea and join up with EU so they can enjoy an even greater subsidy to support their main export industry which is exporting Scotsmen/women (world -wide coverage, you can find Scots(persons) anywhere)
Then there is UKIP, that wants...? :lol:
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Are you the Daily Mail? I always worried it would become sentient
 
devilish said:
Transitional deal will be out of the EU (no rebates, no EU vote, no MEPs etc) but with temporary access to the single market
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If transitional deal means we are out, then no payments, we are either 'in' with special compensation on movement and trade and continue to pay our dues, or we are out and no payments, cliff edge looming!

devilish said:
Also Juncker didn't blew anything with Cameron.
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Oh, so why did we have a referendum then?

Juncker will go down in history as the first EU leader to lose a member of the EU on his watch (and a big one, paying in surpluses at that) can't see him surviving after we leave can you, much less getting the top job in the new unified State of Europe?
 
I Believe said:
If transitional deal means we are out, then no payments, we are either 'in' with special compensation on movement and trade and continue to pay our dues, or we are out and no payments, cliff edge looming!



Oh, so why did we have a referendum then?

Juncker will go down in history as the first EU leader to lose a member of the EU on his watch (and a big one, paying in surpluses at that) can't see him surviving after we leave can you, much lass getting the top job in the new unified State of Europe?
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a- No one is forcing the UK to sign anything. The UK is free not to pay their dues as much as the EU is free not to give a transitional deal + a trade deal afterwards.

b- The Tory party wanted to make sure to win the GE without any risk of having a hung government so it decided to cripple Ukip by offering a referendum on Brexit. Since its suicide to leave the EU, Cameron expected the EU to bail him out afterwards but that failed miserably. That ended up well for the Tory party and Cameron didn't it?

c- Every country is free to leave the EU by activating article 50. Its not Juncker's fault that the UK was lead by an incompetent person who overplayed his hand to win the next GE.
 
I Believe said:
If transitional deal means we are out, then no payments, we are either 'in' with special compensation on movement and trade and continue to pay our dues, or we are out and no payments, cliff edge looming!



Oh, so why did we have a referendum then?

Juncker will go down in history as the first EU leader to lose a member of the EU on his watch (and a big one, paying in surpluses at that) can't see him surviving after we leave can you, much less getting the top job in the new unified State of Europe?
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You realize that no one cares about Juncker at the exception of brexiters, who for some reason have a passion for the man. No one excepts Juncker himself, wants him to survive.
 
I Believe said:
Whoa! Stop Press, for goodness sake someone text Theresa, before she says anything she regrets, we ARE HOME FREE! YIPEE!
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I dont think ive said anything that is so outrageous to deserve 3 posts.

I think that both barnier and davies confirmed that most of it is moral obligation. Same thing can be said about the eu offering a transitional period to the uk. The UK is free not to pay most of the it. The EU is also free not to offer a transitional period. Having said that any decision taken by either party will have consequences.
 
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GazTheLegend said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_European_Constitution_referendum,_2005

55% of the French people voted against the ratification of the EU constitution.

They were ignored.

That's the definition of losing your sovereignty and your democracy. Rightly or wrongly, the next French government ratified the EU constitution anyway.

I believe that if you held a "Frexit" you would have a similar vote.

Perhaps that's because the people don't understand the consequences fully. The EU becoming more federalised COULD be a power of good, but it's hard to ignore the erosion of choice - especially with forced migration quotas being placed on Hungary, Poland etc.
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As per @JPRouve - the incorrect wild assumptions continue.
 
devilish said:
I dont think ive said anything that is so outrageous to deserve 3 posts
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Sorry Devilish, my apologies, it was a technical hitch with my laptop, silly me kept pressing re-send, I was so excited about your apparent conversion, but alas not so!
 
I Believe said:
Sorry Devilish, my apologies, it was a technical hitch with my laptop, silly me kept pressing re-send, I was so excited about your apparent conversion, but alas not so!
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No worries mate :)
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Has Theresa's speech started yet - could do with a good chuckle.
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Paul you realise it will be in English, that is still the official business language of the EU... wonder what they will change it to after we've left? It will annoy Junker so much if they have to keep using it..!
Will they have to translate all those OJEC documents into the new business language? Suppose they will try and stick that bill on us as well!
 
I Believe said:
Paul you realise it will be in English, that is still the official business language of the EU... wonder what they will change it to after we've left? It will annoy Junker so much if they have to keep using it..!
Will they have to translate all those OJEC documents into the new business language? Suppose they will try and stick that bill on us as well!
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I have a feeling it won't be in English, French or German - I'll plump for gibberish.

As JPR said, no-one really cares about Juncker apart from the British - he'll be gone soon as will May , which we agree on, not for the same reasons though.
The Uk will pay for their access to the market etc etc so will effectively still be part of the EU after their "departure" in March 2019 - the only difference being is that they won't have any MEP's or say in what happens. Just think no Farage - scratch that, he's never there anyway.
 
JPRouve said:
You realize that no one cares about Juncker
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Oh! that's surprising to hear, thought he was the 'poster boy' for the stick to the British cohort and the lets all hug together as one country faction?

If that is the case it might be best if the National Leaders get him off the front line, hidden in a cupboard in the cellars of the EU HQ, made to watch endless re-runs of Nigel Farage's speech to the EU Parliament... the " you're not laughing now" one! Come to think of it 'sack clothe and ashes" might be more appropriate!
 
I Believe said:
Oh! that's surprising to hear, thought he was the 'poster boy' for the stick to the British cohort and the lets all hug together as one country faction?

If that is the case it might be best if the National Leaders get him off the front line, hidden in a cupboard in the cellars of the EU HQ, made to watch endless re-runs of Nigel Farage's speech to the EU Parliament... the " you're not laughing now" one! Come to think of it 'sack clothe and ashes" might be more appropriate!
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It would certainly be a good idea if we locked Juncker, Ukip, Boris, Farage and co in some cellar so that the adults can negotiate on Brexit.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I'll plump for gibberish.
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Gibberish, that's perfect... what a insight you have, that's the language the EU Commissioners have been speaking since Mrs Cresson's day in court! (Well it wasn't really a day in court was it... and six years after the guilty verdict?)
 
712 said:
Media chock full of discussion on May's speech
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Perfect example of 'Fake News' from the media.Report it before its happened, then look sheepish if she says something else, make up an excuse it was all down to Boris's intervention, then run another four pages on his bid for leadership and the in-fighting in the tory party.. totally ignore what Theresa said, the EU will do anyway!
 
I Believe said:
Oh! that's surprising to hear, thought he was the 'poster boy' for the stick to the British cohort and the lets all hug together as one country faction?

If that is the case it might be best if the National Leaders get him off the front line, hidden in a cupboard in the cellars of the EU HQ, made to watch endless re-runs of Nigel Farage's speech to the EU Parliament... the " you're not laughing now" one! Come to think of it 'sack clothe and ashes" might be more appropriate!
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It's only surprising if you know nothing about the EU. I said it numerous times Juncker talks for himself while Barnier and Tusk talk for the member states and particularly for the EU council.
 
712 said:
Media chock full of discussion on May's speech. Which she hasn't made yet. feck's sake just wait a bit until you find out what she actually says.
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No one cares anyway everyone knows she's a lame duck and that it'll be full of fluffy words with no substance. The audience for the speech isn't the EU its voters back home and her own MPs
 
GazTheLegend said:
That's conjecture -again- though. Just because since then, the French have voted in pro European presidents, that does not make the French people themselves pro European Union.

Correlation does not imply causation.

I would say that I could assume that since brexit, a lot of French may feel more affinity towards the Eu project, but I really don't know. It's quite possible. But the popularity of Marine le Pen did cause me to wonder. She is an awful candidate and a holocaust denier - and she still came extremely close to becoming your president!
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She didn't come extremely close. 66-34% is generally known as a landslide.
 
I Believe said:
Who says they won't? Boris heh heh heh!

For many Brexit voters getting out of the EU is the main thing, so a temporary solution is we take back control of our borders and start to make trade deals elsewhere, now and we then remain in the EU until 2020, paying only what we owe/promised until the end of the current budget and then have a 'leaving do' at the end of 2020... simples!
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What a great way to finish off such an incorrect post :lol:
 
Did May just say she isn't sensible? :lol:

May: No deal better than a bad one.
Also
May: No one sensible proposes tariffs.

So much hot air again and nothing of substance... regret postponing mowing the lawn over this.
 
we never felt part of the EU

but we share your values

we want a close relationship that we feel we deserve that you don't offer to anyone else yet

but we share your values

we want a transitional deal were nothing change and we've got no clue when it ends (possibly 2 years)

but EU employees who want to work need to register

we want our sovreignity back

but we share your values

no tarriffs please

but we share your values
 
devilish said:
we never felt part of the EU

but we share your values

we want a close relationship that we feel we deserve that you don't offer to anyone else yet

but we share your values

we want a transitional deal were nothing change and we've got no clue when it ends (possibly 2 years)

but EU employees who want to work need to register

we want our sovreignity back

but we share your values
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Said it would be in gibberish
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Said it would be in gibberish
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if I had doubt about what I said before then this doubt is gone.

UK pay its dues and it will get its transitional deal. Then everyone goes his own way unless, of course, it decides to choose an off the shelf solution.
 
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