Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I think the main problem, as I said the other day, is that May's proposal has shown the EU our intention of ending/restricting free movement. And so, obviously the EU will be unable to agree with May's current proposal because of the implications of not embracing the four freedoms, and how that may impact trade. It just goes to show that David Davis was right when he said that negotiations will have to be in parallel because they are entwined.
Let's say that the EU does agree with May's proposal, they would then effectively be agreeing that the UK is going to restrict free movement of EU nationals. If this fact is established in order to give EU nationals assurance, it would be stupid to then change their mind after.
The subject of free movement is going to be the one sticking point through this whole process I reckon.

No, it's two separate things, that's why one of the first things to get agreed is the current EU and British citizens rights up to the cutoff point. When that is agreed if the UK want a deal after it's left then the 4 freedoms come into it, it's not a parallel discussion at all. Davis is wrong and will have to realise it very soon.
 
What I'm telling you is that you are among the people that aren't concerned by the problem because you can already put yourself in a settled position by applying for Citizenship or you can wait and "automatically" be upgraded to settled status. The people who are going to have problems are the ones that haven't reached 5 years in 2019.

It's not automatic at all, they all have to reapply for this settled status all over again.
 
What I'm telling you is that you are among the people that aren't concerned by the problem because you can already put yourself in a settled position by applying for Citizenship or you can wait and "automatically" be upgraded to settled status. The people who are going to have problems are the ones that haven't reached 5 years in 2019.

Although you can make this argument, the point is even people like me who should not be a concern for the Home Office are not guaranteed the 'settled' status by any means. On the gov.uk website, it says I have to reapply.

From my long years dealing with the HO, there is no such thing as a formality.

I just have to question why money would be spent dealing with me (instead of sending me the docs or saying I already have it) when there's 3 million people out there in a much more unsettled position... This is bluster and bullshit yet again from the May government.

I personally know of one of my peers who has recently moved jobs to France. I haven't had a chance to talk to her why this happened but it is interesting she did it in the wake of the shambles of the EU referendum. And, as much as I hate to admit, she's definitely the most capable of a very intelligent group of people I have grown up with.
 
No, it's two separate things, that's why one of the first things to get agreed is the current EU and British citizens rights up to the cutoff point. When that is agreed if the UK want a deal after it's left then the 4 freedoms come into it, it's not a parallel discussion at all. Davis is wrong and will have to realise it very soon.

If the UK ends up conceding the issue over free movement, her current proposal will have to be ripped up, because there would be no cut off point, and the UK would no longer be able to leave the ECJ if it was continuing to open it's doors to EU nationals.
 
If the UK ends up conceding the issue over free movement, her current proposal will have to be ripped up, because there would be no cut off point, and the UK would no longer be able to leave the ECJ if it was continuing to open it's doors to EU nationals.

British citizens that are already in EU countries or EU citizens that already in the UK should be able to continue with the rights they have and including those that arrive up to the cutoff point.
After the cutoff point if the UK leaves the EU without a deal and freedom of movement stops in 2019 then that's it for future people who want the right of freedom of movement but the people who had already made the choice should be able to continue their lives with any restrictions other than the obvious ones like criminals but this exists now, but May lies yet again, she has no shame whatsoever.
 
British citizens that are already in EU countries or EU citizens that already in the UK should be able to continue with the rights they have and including those that arrive up to the cutoff point.
After the cutoff point if the UK leaves the EU without a deal and freedom of movement stops in 2019 then that's it for future people who want the right of freedom of movement but the people who had already made the choice should be able to continue their lives with any restrictions other than the obvious ones like criminals but this exists now, but May lies yet again, she has no shame whatsoever.

I don't think you're understanding the implications of the current proposal. Free movement is ending according to the current proposal. All the talk about a soft brexit, and May's diminished majority, and the majority of parliament against a hard brexit etc has not altered the Tory's course of action regarding free movement. The free movement issue is going to be the resounding problem with the current deal. Merkel stated that the assurances given to EU nationals currently living in the Uk was a good beginning, but went on to talk about the fact that there was an intention to end free movement in this proposal, and that there would be consequences. This is why junker and tusk were pissed off.
 
I don't think you're understanding the implications of the current proposal. Free movement is ending according to the current proposal. All the talk about a soft brexit, and May's diminished majority, and the majority of parliament against a hard brexit etc has not altered the Tory's course of action regarding free movement. The free movement issue is going to be the resounding problem with the current deal. Merkel stated that the assurances given to EU nationals currently living in the EU was a good beginning, but went on to talk about the fact that there was an intention to end free movement in this proposal, and that there would be consequences. This is why junker and tusk were pissed off.

Whichever Brexit is agreed upon afterwards, the first thing that has to be agreed is the guarantee of existing rights, plus the payment of the bill, plus the Irish border.
There will be no more talks if these subjects are not agreed upon. If the rights of people are taken away, it's cliff edge time.
 
Although you can make this argument, the point is even people like me who should not be a concern for the Home Office are not guaranteed the 'settled' status by any means. On the gov.uk website, it says I have to reapply.

From my long years dealing with the HO, there is no such thing as a formality.

I just have to question why money would be spent dealing with me (instead of sending me the docs or saying I already have it) when there's 3 million people out there in a much more unsettled position... This is bluster and bullshit yet again from the May government.

I personally know of one of my peers who has recently moved jobs to France. I haven't had a chance to talk to her why this happened but it is interesting she did it in the wake of the shambles of the EU referendum. And, as much as I hate to admit, she's definitely the most capable of a very intelligent group of people I have grown up with.

My bad, I see what you mean. But they talk about an application to "confirm", if you don't trust them apply for Citizenship, I'll understand if you don't trust them
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I don't think you're understanding the implications of the current proposal. Free movement is ending according to the current proposal. All the talk about a soft brexit, and May's diminished majority, and the majority of parliament against a hard brexit etc has not altered the Tory's course of action regarding free movement. The free movement issue is going to be the resounding problem with the current deal. Merkel stated that the assurances given to EU nationals currently living in the Uk was a good beginning, but went on to talk about the fact that there was an intention to end free movement in this proposal, and that there would be consequences. This is why junker and tusk were pissed off.

That's not what Merkel said, she said that the free movement question needed to be settled because it would influence the rest of the negotiations.
 
Whichever Brexit is agreed upon afterwards, the first thing that has to be agreed is the guarantee of existing rights, plus the payment of the bill, plus the Irish border.
There will be no more talks if these subjects are not agreed upon. If the rights of people are taken away, it's cliff edge time.

See below.


That's not what Merkel said, she said that the free movement question needed to be settled because it would influence the rest of the negotiations.

Well it's the same thing. Free movement is being rejected according to May's current proposal. The reason why it's so controversial is because it means we are leaving the ECJ, and rejecting one of the four freedoms.
The main reason why the EU does not like the current proposal, is because they are determined to have free movement in the UK.
So you're right. The free movement issue needs to be resolved now, because it affects everything.
 
The EU made its offer which was more generous than May's awhile ago. If anything, they'll have make it 'worse' now to align with that of Mrs May.
 
See below.




Well it's the same thing. Free movement is being rejected according to May's current proposal. The reason why it's so controversial is because it means we are leaving the ECJ, and rejecting one of the four freedoms.
The main reason why the EU does not like the current proposal, is because they are determined to have free movement in the UK.
So you're right. The free movement issue needs to be resolved now, because it affects everything.

It's not the same thing. For the third time, now is about existing rights, I can't explain it any more. The freedom of movement and deals is for later after the UK has left. If the UK want a deal they have to accept freedom of movement - if the Uk doesn't want anything then freedom of movement will not apply after 2019 except to those whose rights have already been guaranteed now.
 
See below.




Well it's the same thing. Free movement is being rejected according to May's current proposal. The reason why it's so controversial is because it means we are leaving the ECJ, and rejecting one of the four freedoms.
The main reason why the EU does not like the current proposal, is because they are determined to have free movement in the UK.
So you're right. The free movement issue needs to be resolved now, because it affects everything.

No, the reason the EU doesn't like the current proposal is because EU citizens rights aren't guaranteed in the UK while they are in the EU. Free movement has nothing to do with UK-EU citizens currently living abroad, it could concern the ones who will like to move in the future but neither you or I know about that part.

And what Merkel said is that if the UK don't agree to follow the four freedoms then the negotiations, will take a different turn, meaning there won't be any negotiations. Interestingly you talk about freedom of movement as if it was equivalent to the four freedoms who are goods, capitals, services and labour, the UK have blurred their message regarding two of them, Goods and Labour.
 
The EU proposals were seemingly designed to be rejected, owing to this insistence surrounding the ECJ in particular. If they therefore wish to make such more important than the rights granted, the fault lies with them.

We remain a member of the ECHR, and our judiciary is a more respected institution than some of our EU contemporaries. The way people are carrying on yo would think that leaving the Brussels Country Club is tantamount to becoming North Korea (which John Major did compare Brexit Britain to during the EU Ref).
 
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The EU proposals were seemingly designed to be rejected, owing to this insistence surrounding the ECJ in particular. If they therefore wish to make such more important than the rights granted, the fault lies with them.

We remain a member of the ECHR, and our judiciary is a more respected institution than some of our EU contemporaries. The way people are carrying on yo would think that leaving the Brussels Country Club is tantamount to becoming North Korea (which John Major did compare Brexit Britain to during the EU Ref).

The problem is that EU citizens agreed rights aren't really within the ECHR scope(unless you actually turn into North Korea:p) and the EU isn't bound to ECtHR's rulings, iirc.
 
The EU proposals were seemingly designed to be rejected, owing to this insistence surrounding the ECJ in particular. If they therefore wish to make such more important than the rights granted, the fault lies with them.

We remain a member of the ECHR, and our judiciary is a more respected institution than some of our EU contemporaries. The way people are carrying on yo would think that leaving the Brussels Country Club is tantamount to becoming North Korea (which John Major did compare Brexit Britain to during the EU Ref).
This is true despite Lord Denning's attempt to dicredit it with his comment about the Birmingham Six, but a bit of a red herring. The judiciary will apply the laws made by parliament, which after the "Great" Repeal Acts may be very different.

I see that Berlusconi is preparing his comeback. No doubt he's being courted by our ambassador in Italy. From bung to bunga-bunga in a question of months.
 
The EU proposals were seemingly designed to be rejected, owing to this insistence surrounding the ECJ in particular. If they therefore wish to make such more important than the rights granted, the fault lies with them.

We remain a member of the ECHR, and our judiciary is a more respected institution than some of our EU contemporaries. The way people are carrying on yo would think that leaving the Brussels Country Club is tantamount to becoming North Korea (which John Major did compare Brexit Britain to during the EU Ref).

More respected by whom, would that be the Brexit RW press who called them enemies of the people, or weren't you aware because the Sun, Mail, Express etc haven't yet extended their circulation to your part of the world.

The UK proposals will be rejected without question, the government haven't even thought it through
 
If suffering a recession led to long term prosperity, it's worth it.
Women choose to go in to labour to a give a child life. There very well may be some birth pains while leaving the EU, but hopefully it'll all be worth it.

Hopefully...? You sound like a Liverpool fan. Pretty sure you nicked that women labour line from one of their many rebirth posts after every new Manager is employed. :nono:
 
The ball is firmly in the EU's court now. They now need to guarantee the rights of the UK citizens on the continent just as May has done here.
Jesus fecking Christ.. :wenger:
I hate my leaver mate saying the same thing, and then started going on a rant how the EU didnt clearly care about us

Depressing state of this country.
 
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http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/9-nasty-hidden-details-brexit-10694501

1. EU citizens face having to apply for 'ID cards'.

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More than 3million EU citizens in Britain will need special 'documentation' to prove they can stay after Brexit .

The paperwork will be required by law to prove people can draw benefits, get a job or use public services like the NHS.

"Without a residence document, current residents may find it difficult to access the labour market and services," the government said.

Downing Street, the Home Office and the Brexit Department insisted the documents would not necessarily be "ID cards", as suggested in some quarters, but could not rule it out.

And the alarming plan prompted a letter today from Lib Dem MP Ed Davey to the Home Secretary Amber Rudd .

"From the description it seems as if this is ID cards by the backdoor," he wrote. "If this is some form of ID card then I would be grateful if you could set out the likely cost of this policy and how you expect it to work."

Brexit Secretary David Davis later insisted people won't have to "carry that around all the time", adding: "It's not an ID card. What we're talking about here is documentation to prove you've got a right to a job, right to residence."

Labour MP Chris Bryant shot back: "I.e., an ID card." Colin Talbot, Professor of government at the University of Cambridge, joked: "If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck..."

2. Those documents will expire after just two years.

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(Photo: AFP)
Theresa May reveals whether EU nationals will be allowed to stay in UK post-Brexit
Many EU migrants will be stripped of their 'settled status' if they leave the country for just two years.

"Settled status would generally be lost if a person was absent from the UK for more than two years, unless they have strong ties here," the document says.

This brings the deal in line not with British citizenship, but with 'indefinite leave to remain.'

People with 'settled status' will be allowed to apply for permanent citizenship after six years total in Britain - but this is not automatic.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman could not say how it’ll be decided if someone has “strong ties” to Britain.

"The precise definition will be set out later in this process,” he said.

3. They could be fingerprinted and have their eyes scanned.

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Those applying for 'settled status' may have to provide "biometric information", which generally includes fingerprints and iris scans, as part of the process.

This will be to "protect against fraud" during the application process itself, the government claimed.

A source at the Brexit Department insisted such information would not necessarily be kept on file, but could not guarantee what would happen to it.

The revelation is likely to enrage privacy campaigners because of the risk millions of foreigners' records could suddenly be on a database.

4. They will have to pay a fee.

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It currently costs £65 for EU citizens to apply for residency documents. But it's a much steeper £1,282 to apply to be a naturalised British citizen and £2,297 to apply for indefinite leave to remain.

The government has not revealed what the fees will be for the new process - it's only claimed they'll be "reasonable".

"We recognise the cost of the new scheme will be important for EU nationals," the document says.

"The UK intends to set fees at a reasonable level. We will publish further details in due course."

5. Will the Home Office be able to cope?

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Buried in the small print is the threat of a massive backlog of documents at the Home Office.

Because of this, there'll need to be a "grace period" of up to two years where the 3.2million EU citizens in Britain can stay while they are still waiting for their documents.

"It will be impractical to issue a very high volume of residence documents immediately when the UK leaves," the government admits.

"We need to avoid a legal gap between the end of free movement rights and the point at which individuals apply for and obtain UK immigration status."

6. People arriving now may have to apply TWICE.

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The whole offer above applies to people who arrive before a "cut-off date" - but that date's not been set.

All we know is it'll be at some point in the two-year period between 29 March 2017 (triggering Article 50) and 29 March 2019 ( Brexit ).

So EU citizens arriving now are in limbo - and may have to go through two torturous application processes to stay.

The document says: "They will be allowed to stay in the UK until they reach the five year point, but they will need to apply to the Home Office for permission for this (leave to remain).

"At the five year point, they will be able to apply for settled status."

7. What will happen to students?

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Education is one of Britain's biggest exports - with many EU citizens coming to study here.

The government has guaranteed that those starting university courses in September 2017 or September 2018 will get "student support and home fee status" until their course ends.

But what about those planning to start a course in September 2019.

The deadlines to apply for these courses will, in some cases, be as early as autumn 2018 - when Brexit is still being negotiated.

8. If you get married, your spouse might not be able to come to Britain.

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All children and current spouses of EU nationals who get "settled status" will be able to apply for it too.

But future spouses (who haven't been married yet) will be governed by the same rules that apply to any British citizen bringing in a non-UK national to live here.

Those rules include a highly controversial income test that says the Brit must earn at least £18,600 before the husband or wife can come and join them.

9. And finally... an embarrassing reminder for David Cameron.

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This last one's not so nasty for EU citizens. But it's a nasty reminder for our former Prime Minister.

Back in 2016, David Cameron tried and failed to stop child benefit being sent from EU citizens who live in the UK to their children who live abroad.

He wanted it in his offer to voters to remain in the EU. But he had to water it down, and Britain then voted for Brexit anyway.

Now the document makes clear EU citizens can carry on sending child benefit abroad, even though Britain voted Leave.

Rights to export benefits will be "protected" for all those exporting them on the cut-off date for settled status.

"Those not exporting UK benefits at the specified date will be treated on the same basis as UK nationals in future," the document adds.
 
"Compromise is the art of dividing the cake so that everyone feels they've got the biggest piece". A slapdown from Hammond for Boris in Germany.
 
Hammond just sent Johnson to detention. If only the electorate was wise enough to properly do that to the Tories.
 
In my opinion Hammond is extremely isolated in a party ruled by xenophobics (May, Boris, Davies)
 
In my opinion Hammond is extremely isolated in a party ruled by xenophobics (May, Boris, Davies)

Think it will be back him or sack him, if May continues as PM the UK are going to crash out of the EU, if the Tories don't want this then they'll have to remove her more quickly than they intended. Hammond for PM?
 
Think it will be back him or sack him, if May continues as PM the UK are going to crash out of the EU, if the Tories don't want this then they'll have to remove her more quickly than they intended. Hammond for PM?

I don't think they can really sack him else they will risk an internal revolt by the remainer MPs which can easily cause the government to fall. On the other hand I doubt he's got enough support to end up PM.

Brexit is the biggest thing ever happening to the UK since Churchill's declaration of war. Its far too big for the Tory Party to handle alone especially since they lack both the quality negotiators and the numbers in parliament to do so. A cross party committee needs to be set up and that committee will be responsible to negotiate with the EU regarding Brexit. The EU will never take such weak and divided government seriously especially one that will probably lose majority at any moment.
 
I don't think they can really sack him else they will risk an internal revolt by the remainer MPs which can easily cause the government to fall. On the other hand I doubt he's got enough support to end up PM.

Brexit is the biggest thing ever happening to the UK since Churchill's declaration of war. Its far too big for the Tory Party to handle alone especially since they lack both the quality negotiators and the numbers in parliament to do so. A cross party committee needs to be set up and that committee will be responsible to negotiate with the EU regarding Brexit. The EU will never take such weak and divided government seriously especially one that will probably lose majority at any moment.

It was Chamberlain not Churchill btw;)- yes I agree with all that you said but May is driven by the "will of the people" and will career towards oblivion if she can stay in power. Something has to happen, but what and when, talks are not going to go very far if May maintains this stance.
 
It's a right nationwide mess. White working class + conservative nationalists + xenophobes + right wing cranky press on one side, conservative business + urban cosmopolitans + liberals/socialists on the other. That is before the exact details conditons are agreed. Really wouldn't like say how this will end up. The press and government were trying to exploit patriotism and denigrate the EU's position well before Brexit was declared and it will most likely get worse as the negotiations develop. If the EU is seen to be getting the upper hand, it will get much worse.
 
It was Chamberlain not Churchill btw;)- yes I agree with all that you said but May is driven by the "will of the people" and will career towards oblivion if she can stay in power. Something has to happen, but what and when, talks are not going to go very far if May maintains this stance.

I am referring to national interest here. This government is simply too weak to negotiate on the UK behalf. I know, because my country was pretty much in the same situation when it negotiated its way in the EU. We had the nationalist party (51% of the votes) who were pro EU and the Labour party (49% of the votes) who was in favour of a wait and see approach with Malta first sealing deals with the EU (ie the Swiss model) and then join the EU at a later stage. The EU exploited that division to its favour just like any seasoned negotiator would do.

From a political POV it makes sense to take this route as well. Lets face it, TM's political career is doomed either way. However she can make sure not to drag her party with her, at least for a long period of time. A cross political committee would share the glories in case of a good Brexit but would also also share the blame in case of a horrible one. JC or NS wont be able to say, 'I have no fault in this' if they are actively involved in the negotiations

Unless DD knows for sure that hard Brexit will be beneficial to the UK then the cross party negotiations are the way to go. A bad Brexit will sign the end of career to Boris, May, Gove and Davis with Farage likely to have to escape the islands to avoid being lynched.
 
It's a right nationwide mess. White working class + conservative nationalists + xenophobes + right wing cranky press on one side, conservative business + urban cosmopolitans + liberals/socialists on the other. That is before the exact details conditons are agreed. Really wouldn't like say how this will end up. The press and government were trying to exploit patriotism and denigrate the EU's position well before Brexit was declared and it will most likely get worse as the negotiations develop. If the EU is seen to be getting the upper hand, it will get much worse.

If you ask me, the UK biggest mistake was to reveal it cards early. It should have waited to set its house in order first, Activation of article 50 could have waited until a cross party committee had been set and certain reassurances were made on key issues. Sure such delay would have made Europe's economy tremble. However the UK economy is far more resilient than that of Spain's or Italy's which means they would hurt more then the UK would.

Once the EU agrees to deal with the UK before article 50 is activated then no door should have been closed until it was literally slammed at the UK's face. Everything from the single market to the customs union right to EU membership should have been negotiated with the promise that, if a good deal is offered, then the UK would consider doing a second referendum with everyone across the board backing it. It might sound outrageous but that's exactly what Boris promised at the early stages of the Brexit campaign.

Instead we've got this mess, were EU negotiators were insulted before they even started doing their job and were doors were shut before anyone even considered an alternative route. Everything from expats to values were used as bargaining chips in a business transaction which the UK stand more to lose then the UK.
 
I am referring to national interest here. This government is simply too weak to negotiate on the UK behalf. I know, because my country was pretty much in the same situation when it negotiated its way in the EU. We had the nationalist party (51% of the votes) who were pro EU and the Labour party (49% of the votes) who was in favour of a wait and see approach with Malta first sealing deals with the EU (ie the Swiss model) and then join the EU at a later stage. The EU exploited that division to its favour just like any seasoned negotiator would do.

From a political POV it makes sense to take this route as well. Lets face it, TM's political career is doomed either way. However she can make sure not to drag her party with her, at least for a long period of time. A cross political committee would share the glories in case of a good Brexit but would also also share the blame in case of a horrible one. JC or NS wont be able to say, 'I have no fault in this' if they are actively involved in the negotiations

Unless DD knows for sure that hard Brexit will be beneficial to the UK then the cross party negotiations are the way to go. A bad Brexit will sign the end of career to Boris, May, Gove and Davis with Farage likely to have to escape the islands to avoid being lynched.

Yes if the national interest was the driving force in all this . The only thing that matters to most of them is their moment in the limelight. May and Boris have changed stances more than they change their clothes .The only thing that can save May now is to come out of the EU negotiations with an unbelievable deal for the UK, so yes her career is finished. But none of the others want to be seen to be to blame directly, they hope to pounce when May messes up.
 
Yes if the national interest was the driving force in all this . The only thing that matters to most of them is their moment in the limelight. May and Boris have changed stances more than they change their clothes .The only thing that can save May now is to come out of the EU negotiations with an unbelievable deal for the UK, so yes her career is finished. But none of the others want to be seen to be to blame directly, they hope to pounce when May messes up.

People aren't stupid. TM is not the nicest person around but she's a remainer. If Brexit is a mess then TM will sink and she will take Davis, Johnson, Gove and Fox with her. We'll be looking for 10 years of labour after that.
 
If you ask me, the UK biggest mistake was to reveal it cards early. It should have waited to set its house in order first, Activation of article 50 could have waited until a cross party committee had been set and certain reassurances were made on key issues. Sure such delay would have made Europe's economy tremble. However the UK economy is far more resilient than that of Spain's or Italy's which means they would hurt more then the UK would.

Once the EU agrees to deal with the UK before article 50 is activated then no door should have been closed until it was literally slammed at the UK's face. Everything from the single market to the customs union right to EU membership should have been negotiated with the promise that, if a good deal is offered, then the UK would consider doing a second referendum with everyone across the board backing it. It might sound outrageous but that's exactly what Boris promised at the early stages of the Brexit campaign.

Instead we've got this mess, were EU negotiators were insulted before they even started doing their job and were doors were shut before anyone even considered an alternative route. Everything from expats to values were used as bargaining chips in a business transaction which the UK stand more to lose then the UK.
I should have included some left wing socialists in the pro-Brexit group. But as it stands the divisions across the country are reflected in the parties too. The majority of MPs are pro-Remain, but the Tories, having called a referendum and having formed a new government on the basis of Brexit, can hardly backtrack without harming themselves. Their desire to hold on to power is stronger than their patriotism,imo.

Labour has in a similar dilemma. Having won back votes from the very same working class that had felt abandoned by them, they cannot easily now move toward a remain position unless they compensate by offering a great deal.

Both parties have important internal divisons and I do not see how a government of national interest or cross party approach could work.