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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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I've always believed the basis for Germany's rebirth and economic prosperity that we now see, was that for most of my time there there were 2 million+ US, UK and French military personnel and their families stationed there as part of the Cold War. All these people ( we were one of them ) spent all their income into the German economy but didn't take anything out of it. They had their own schools, hospitals, etc, which cost the German Government nothing, and it's difficult to imagine what a fantastic set of circumstances that was for Germany. Imagine having two million immigrants come into France or the UK who you don't have to find jobs for; spend all their money in France or the UK; don't cost the French or UK Government a single pound for health services and education and housing; and don't qualify for the countries' Social Security and Pensions systems. Even UKIP would support that.
Yeah except for the 5 Billion Mark (5bil. 1950's money) paid by Germany during that time (between 1946 and 1950) for hosting those armies. I can't find the numbers for between 1950-1955, but it was 300mil DM paid afterwards to each of them per year... Probably only a fraction of the actual costs of the 4, but it's not as if they didn't cost 'a single pound'.
 
Yeah except for the 5 Billion Mark (5bil. 1950's money) paid by Germany during that time (between 1946 and 1950) for hosting those armies. I can't find the numbers for between 1950-1955, but it was 300mil DM paid afterwards to each of them per year... Probably only a fraction of the actual costs of the 4, but it's not as if they didn't cost 'a single pound'.


I won't argue with you, although I was always told that the money paid to the foreign militaries was because the Germans weren't allowed to have their own 'full-on military' during those years, and the amount they 'contributed' was based on the cost they would have incurred if they had had their own military.

Rent-an-Army, if you want....
 
I won't argue with you, although I was always told that the money paid to the foreign militaries was because the Germans weren't allowed to have their own 'full-on military' during those years, and the amount they 'contributed' was based on the cost they would have incurred if they had had their own military.

Rent-an-Army, if you want....

I'm not sure what the money was for exactly. I think we can both agree that having the American, English and French there was hugely beneficial for West Germany at the time either way, I just wanted to point out that the new Germany did contribute a bit too.
 
I'm not sure what the money was for exactly. I think we can both agree that having the American, English and French there was hugely beneficial for West Germany at the time either way, I just wanted to point out that the new Germany did contribute a bit too.

Genuinely nice to finally agree on something.
 
Notice the wink

Apologies.

On the other hand, I was cleaning out my PC yesterday, removing old files / downloads, and came across this one.

It seems that in 2012, the UK had contingent liabilities - not actual liablilities - of almost €150 billion directly as a result of it's EU membership.

Makes you think - €150+ billion was resting on the good financial health of the EU and some of its members, nothing to do with the UK's own economic status / performance.

https://www.brugesgroup.com/media-c...e-eib-and-other-european-financial-mechanisms

Seems unbelievably stupid to me - without being part of the Eurozone, the UK might have to cough up €150+billion ( or how ever much that is now ) if the eurozone can't manage the Greeks' problems to the benefit of the EU rather than Greece.
 
Apologies.

On the other hand, I was cleaning out my PC yesterday, removing old files / downloads, and came across this one.

It seems that in 2012, the UK had contingent liabilities - not actual liablilities - of almost €150 billion directly as a result of it's EU membership.

Makes you think - €150+ billion was resting on the good financial health of the EU and some of its members, nothing to do with the UK's own economic status / performance.

https://www.brugesgroup.com/media-c...e-eib-and-other-european-financial-mechanisms

Seems unbelievably stupid to me - without being part of the Eurozone, the UK might have to cough up €150+billion ( or how ever much that is now ) if the eurozone can't manage the Greeks' problems to the benefit of the EU rather than Greece.

The Uk lost it's AAA rating though since then
 
Just read an article which mentions Brian H Fishman's book The Master Plan, which is about ISIS and al-Qaeda's strategy. Apparently, around 2005 a seven stage plan was drawn up and stage 5 - 2013-2016 Declaring the State - predicts a British-led reversal of the rising unity of Europe, offering a prime opportunity to declare an Islamic state - the caliphate.

Edit : Just read about the attack in Iran so I'll mention stage 6 - Absolute Confrontation 2016-2018, which refers to the final conflict between the forces of faith and the forces of atheism. Presumably atheists are those with a different view to theirs on God.
 
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With the potential of another election quite high, we could be looking at 6 months off a two year period for negotiations gone.
Incredible the clusterfeck Dave has created.
 
I bet the tory party would anything to avoid hard borders with the republic of ireland now. I wonder if the eu would go for an all or nothing now. Surely its unfair for the irish enjoy benefits that other Europeans cant enjoy
 
The EU have us over a barrel.
At this point, I can't see anything but another referendum after failed negotiations.
 
I'm a bit slow on the uptake, but I'm wondering if some time ago Ken Clarke and a few others didn't go to May and say 'we don't want to split the party in public, but privately we're telling you we will vote against Brexit at the last'. Hence an absolute need for a larger majority, hence the election.
 
I'm a bit slow on the uptake, but I'm wondering if some time ago Ken Clarke and a few others didn't go to May and say 'we don't want to split the party in public, but privately we're telling you we will vote against Brexit at the last'. Hence an absolute need for a larger majority, hence the election.

Wasn't the party split at the time of the referendum though, in public?
May thought she would sweep up the UKIP voters, I think it's just pure arrogance and poor judgement combined with being power hungry that has led to this shambles.
 
I'm a bit slow on the uptake, but I'm wondering if some time ago Ken Clarke and a few others didn't go to May and say 'we don't want to split the party in public, but privately we're telling you we will vote against Brexit at the last'. Hence an absolute need for a larger majority, hence the election.

Bingo! Except, things haven't quite worked out as planned :D
For Britain, however, I think the election result is a blessing in disguise...
 
Wasn't the party split at the time of the referendum though, in public?
May thought she would sweep up the UKIP voters, I think it's just pure arrogance and poor judgement combined with being power hungry that has led to this shambles.

Yes it was, I'm thinking that Clarke may have acted after and despite the referendum. This is a man who would almost certainly have led his party were he not pro-Europe. I suspect he would consider de-railing Brexit a pleasing and fitting end to his career. It's possible May had no choice, although if I am right, it leaves her with not a lot of choice now either!
 
Yes it was, I'm thinking that Clarke may have acted after and despite the referendum. This is a man who would almost certainly have led his party were he not pro-Europe. I suspect he would consider de-railing Brexit a pleasing and fitting end to his career. It's possible May had no choice, although if I am right, it leaves her with not a lot of choice now either!

I'm sure Clarke would love to derail Brexit. I'll be extremely surprised if May is still PM this time next year.
 
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But he's right though, May having a small majority or a large majority made little difference, having no majority does make a difference.

He still should shut up, it doesn't matter if he is right or not. The man doesn't have an ounce of diplomacy and discretion in him.
 
Europe will absolutely ream us for everything and rightly so.


I don't know why you say 'rightly so'....

As I posted on Wednesday in the other thread....


I don't vote, of course, but if I was, I'd break the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.

Everything you say is absolutely why I've always been left-of-centre. But to me the BIGGEST problem for the UK over the next few years is the eventual state of the UK after the UK leaves the EU.

Get BREXIT wrong, and all the problems you're describing will be even more so and even worse....Even more devisive....

Much as I dislike May and many members of her cabinet, it seems to me that they are preferable to a coalition of Labour/LibDen/SNP, all of whom don't want the UK out of the EU, and so don't have the determination or the enthusiasm to make sure the UK doesn't get absolutely, totally screwed by the EU.

Labour or LibDem next time, perhaps, has to be the sensible way forward for the UK - but not this time....

 
I've just been listening to Tusk on World Service and he was remarkably restrained. I'd have been tempted to put the boot in 'Look, it's a year since you said you were leaving and you still don't seem ready to negotiate, how long are we supposed to give you before we consider you as a failed state and impose our own terms?'.
 
I don't know why you say 'rightly so'....

As I posted on Wednesday in the other thread....


I don't vote, of course, but if I was, I'd break the habit of a lifetime and vote Tory.

Everything you say is absolutely why I've always been left-of-centre. But to me the BIGGEST problem for the UK over the next few years is the eventual state of the UK after the UK leaves the EU.

Get BREXIT wrong, and all the problems you're describing will be even more so and even worse....Even more devisive....

Much as I dislike May and many members of her cabinet, it seems to me that they are preferable to a coalition of Labour/LibDen/SNP, all of whom don't want the UK out of the EU, and so don't have the determination or the enthusiasm to make sure the UK doesn't get absolutely, totally screwed by the EU.

Labour or LibDem next time, perhaps, has to be the sensible way forward for the UK - but not this time....

It's in their best interests to destroy us in the negotiations to make a point to the other member states about what happens if you choose to leave the club.

It's not morally right but they've got all the power and we've got absolutely nothing to offer in response so they're going to bend us over and shaft us for all we're worth.

Idiots voted to leave the Union instead of effect change from inside it, instead of opening up dialogue about the issues and sorting it out we took our ball and went home instead, now we'll rightfully pay the price.

At the end of the day, they're 26 countries in one big block and we're a tiny isolated rock with nothing to offer.

Not all Tories wanted out of the union and not all Labour members want to stay in, Corbyn doesn't for one. I can't look at the likes of May and Boris and think 'yeah, we're gonna do alright in negotiations here'.