Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Kentonio said:
Lots of British people would like to be part of the EU, yet that apparently didn't matter so much to you. The only way giving Britain a great deal makes any sense, is if you want to be out of the EU and/or you believe the EU is a negative thing. Most Europeans don't think either of those things.

What exactly have you been saying all along? That giving Britain a great deal would be a terrible blow to the EU? Because as far as I remember, thats the exact OPPOSITE of what you've all been saying.
Click to expand...


Your first comment...

Lots of, but not the majority.

I know that the EU and its apologists appear to have a different view on democracy when it comes to majority votes by its members' citizens, but that's the way it works in the UK.

Your second comment...

Lost me there....Again, please....
 
Full bodied red said:
Your first comment...

Lots of, but not the majority.

I know that the EU and its apologists appear to have a different view on democracy when it comes to majority votes by its members' citizens, but that's the way it works in the UK.
Click to expand...

Apologists? Hahaha, typical UKIP nonsense. The EU is fecking brilliant, I don't have a single damn thing to feel apologetic about by supporting it. As for how things work in the UK, you might want to be a little less smug considering we come from a constitutional monarchy which still has Bishops in its upper house.

Full bodied red said:
Your second comment...

Lost me there....Again, please....
Click to expand...

You said "Precisely. Haven't Leavers been saying this all along ?" in response to me talking about a good deal for Britain risking the collapse of the EU. I'd like you to explain that, given that I've never heard a single anti-EU person admit that. They've been falling over themselves to tell us instead how the only reason the EU 27 wouldn't give us a good deal is if they're being spiteful and vengeful.
 
Kentonio said:
Apologists? Hahaha, typical UKIP nonsense. The EU is fecking brilliant, I don't have a single damn thing to feel apologetic about by supporting it. As for how things work in the UK, you might want to be a little less smug considering we come from a constitutional monarchy which still has Bishops in its upper house.
Click to expand...

Not UKIP myself - just pro-UK in this case for being anti-EU. But if that makes me smug....OK, I can handle it.

Your stuff about Monarchy and House of Lords - I'd almost agree with you.

Although, the House of Lords is a little bit like the EU Parliament. Neither can make laws themselves. The HoL reviews and approves laws and decisions made in the House of Commons. The EU Parliament reviews and approves laws made by the EU Commission. The difference in democracy is that the elected members are the other way around - the HoL is unelected, scrutinising the elected lawmakers, the EU parliament is elected, scrutinising the unelected lawmakers.

Which of these two afronts to democracy is the worse, I'm not too sure.

Kentonio said:
You said "Precisely. Haven't Leavers been saying this all along ?" in response to me talking about a good deal for Britain risking the collapse of the EU. I'd like you to explain that, given that I've never heard a single anti-EU person admit that. They've been falling over themselves to tell us instead how the only reason the EU 27 wouldn't give us a good deal is if they're being spiteful and vengeful.
Click to expand...

I think you've misunderstood what I was ( trying ) to say.

I don't expect the UK to get a Free Trade Deal from the EU. Absolutely not. End of. If the EU's so fecking wonderful, they don't actually need the UK as members - might need the UK's money and consumers, but not the UK. So no good deal for the UK.

I used the word ' precisely ' in relation to your comment Why would they see doing something that could help collapse the European project and cost all their countries hundreds of billions of (ex-)euros as common sense? Like I said, lots of us in Europe, including in the UK, want nothing to do with a European Project, just a Free Trade Area.


 
Full bodied red said:
You and I are on different sides of this argument - I don't see any benefits for the UK in staying other than Tarrif Free Trade with the EU.

But as the EU has Tariff Free Trade with the UK, and runs a huge surplus in Tariff Free Trade with the UK, and charges the UK about €20 billion for the privilege, and prevents the UK from doing its own Trade Deals with non-EU countries, and insists that the UK has an economic open border to allow EU governments and quasi-government companies to buy up half the UK's public services and infrastructure, and an open physical border to soak up the EU's unemployed and unemployable, etc, etc, then I'd turn your comment around and say that I don't see any positive aspect for the EU coming out of the BREXIT vote.

But I do see potential benefits for the UK outside the EU - quite how many of those can be turned into reality is up to the EU.

An economically strong and prosperous UK, post BREXIT, will also benefit the EU as we are such an important customer for their exports. An economically weak UK post BREXIT will overspill to the EU's economy and its remaining members' economies.

Really, the choice is up to the EU - good friends and trading partners with the UK or miserable, feck you ex-partners.
Click to expand...

But it isn't €20bn and there's much more than just the trade, and the Uk do already trade with non-EU countries but get a better deal because they are part of the EU, on their own it will not be quite so simple and they have to start from scratch. If the Uk still continue to think they can get free access without paying anything or having ECJ ruling or free movement then it's just not going to happen.

Of course it would be better if both the UK and EU were prosperous but don't see how that is going to happen unless the UK agree to the terms and conditions which would have to be through the EEA. One country will always be weaker than a combined 27 and a weak 27 would make the UK even weaker.
There are no winners, just that one will lose much more than the 27.

The signs are starting to show over the last couple of months. Absolutely nothing has led me to change my mind in the past 15 months since this discussion began. Everything is exactly as I thought it would be but just a little delayed because the UK took so long to trigger A50.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
But it isn't €20bn and there's much more than just the trade, and the Uk do already trade with non-EU countries but get a better deal because they are part of the EU, on their own it will not be quite so simple and they have to start from scratch. If the Uk still continue to think they can get free access without paying anything or having ECJ ruling or free movement then it's just not going to happen.

Of course it would be better if both the UK and EU were prosperous but don't see how that is going to happen unless the UK agree to the terms and conditions which would have to be through the EEA. One country will always be weaker than a combined 27 and a weak 27 would make the UK even weaker.
There are no winners, just that one will lose much more than the 27.

The signs are starting to show over the last couple of months. Absolutely nothing has led me to change my mind in the past 15 months since this discussion began. Everything is exactly as I thought it would be but just a little delayed because the UK took so long to trigger A50.
Click to expand...


I said €20 billion because it's about €12 billion PLUS it seems the UK should have set aside another couple of € billion each year to pay it's leaving fee PLUS the share of Import Tarrifs which the UK collects on behalf of the EU from non-EU Trade Partnersd and then passes them on to the EU but could actually keep these once outside the EU until Free Tade Deals are set up with those countries.

It all adds up, you know....

The rest - I respect your opinions and your reasons, all logical, but it seems that I'm much more optimistic that the UK will manage perfectly well outside the meddling influences and dictats of EU Commissioners and their EU Project.

Perhps you can offer Kentonian somewhere to stay when he quits the UK for his beloved EU. I would, of course, but it might get a bit strained over dinner....
 
Full bodied red said:
Sorry....Didn't realise....

You here forever like Paul and myself, or just for the time being ?
Click to expand...

Two and a half years so far, so will be about 4 years and two months when Brexit lands. Which is obviously great..

If all goes well I'll stay at least long enough to get French citizenship. I need my EU citizenship to continue, I travel extensively for work and losing it would be a massive blow.
 
Stanley Road said:
"There are.no winners in this. Only losers"

Donald Tusk

But if you try, forget your principles for one sec, you might surprise yourself.
Click to expand...

So the EU should abandon their principles to accomodate what? A government that has none? The Tory party made their bed. Let them sleep in it. Its not the EU's job to make Brexit a success.
 
Full bodied red said:
Your first comment...

Lots of, but not the majority.

I know that the EU and its apologists appear to have a different view on democracy when it comes to majority votes by its members' citizens, but that's the way it works in the UK.

Your second comment...

Lost me there....Again, please....
Click to expand...
These comments :lol:
 
Kentonio said:
Two and a half years so far, so will be about 4 years and two months when Brexit lands. Which is obviously great..

If all goes well I'll stay at least long enough to get French citizenship. I need my EU citizenship to continue, I travel extensively for work and losing it would be a massive blow.
Click to expand...

As I said...Sorry, didn't realise.

I was telling Paul a while ago, been here since 1979 and thought about the citizenship thing a few times but never got round to it. Like you, I've spent all that time working and travelling internationally, but never really had any problems. And, I suppose, Schengen wouldn't affect me too much - once you're in France, don't actually need a passport to go most other places in Europe, anyway.

These days, I still spend quite a bit of time in Nigeria and Angola - and doesn't really matter which country pasport you have, everyone still needs visa. So swapping to a French passport won't help with work.

If the sh*t hits the fan, I'll probably go for German citizenship ( Frau FBR is German ) but that's a problem for the future, only if the UK and the EU don't do a deal on their own foreign residents which I'm sure they will. Might require introducing work permits, but residency should be easily agreeable.
 
Full bodied red said:
I was telling Paul a while ago, been here since 1979 and thought about the citizenship thing a few times but never got round to it. Like you, I've spent all that time working and travelling internationally, but never really had any problems. And, I suppose, Schengen wouldn't affect me too much - once you're in France, don't actually need a passport to go most other places in Europe, anyway.
Click to expand...

Schengen would certainly help, I'm just expecting that if we don't get a deal we'll probably end up with some extra annoyances thrown in along the way. For me personally I'm not expecting the work travel stuff to be a major problem though, as one advantage of working for a big global is they tend to sort out that stuff for you of course.

Full bodied red said:
If the sh*t hits the fan, I'll probably go for German citizenship ( Frau FBR is German ) but that's a problem for the future, only if the UK and the EU don't do a deal on their own foreign residents which I'm sure they will. Might require introducing work permits, but residency should be easily agreeable.
Click to expand...

If you're looking at Germany, then might be worth noting the rule about duel citizenship. It's only possible apparently if you're applying from an EU country, so post Brexit it'd likely mean handing in your UK passport. I don't think that applies for France though.
 
I'm not sure why leavers are confused about the EU's position. Broadly there are 4 things they want from the process.

1) Not reward countries for leaving as they have an interest in more countries not leaving.
2) Do the best trade deal for the EU. If the UK's demands mean this is no deal then so be it.
3) Make sensible arrangements for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa, if the UK allows this to happen.
4) Negotiate a mutually sensible financial exit arrangement.

Leavers seem to think the UK's interests should trump the EU's interests by default and start crying "I hate the nasty EU" when reality starts to creep in.
 
Wibble said:
I'm not sure why leavers are confused about the EU's position. Broadly there are 4 things they want from the process.

1) Not reward countries for leaving as they have an interest in more countries not leaving.
2) Do the best trade deal for the EU. If the UK's demands mean this is no deal then so be it.
3) Make sensible arrangements for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa, if the UK allows this to happen.
4) Negotiate a mutually sensible financial exit arrangement.

Leavers seem to think the UK's interests should trump the EU's interests by default and start crying "I hate the nasty EU" when reality starts to creep in.
Click to expand...

I don't see anything a leaver would find remotely confusing in that list. Maybe one will come on and explain?
 
Wibble said:
I'm not sure why leavers are confused about the EU's position. Broadly there are 4 things they want from the process.

1) Not reward countries for leaving as they have an interest in more countries not leaving.
2) Do the best trade deal for the EU. If the UK's demands mean this is no deal then so be it.
3) Make sensible arrangements for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa, if the UK allows this to happen.
4) Negotiate a mutually sensible financial exit arrangement.

Leavers seem to think the UK's interests should trump the EU's interests by default and start crying "I hate the nasty EU" when reality starts to creep in.
Click to expand...

The reason why us leavers voted to leave is because we hate the nasty EU. We all knew after the referendum that the EU wouldn't allow us to leave quietly if we desired to take back control of our borders.
It is bloody obvious that the EU wants both free movement, and our money, and if they get neither, it's going to get ugly.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
The reason why us leavers voted to leave is because we hate the nasty EU. We all knew after the referendum that the EU wouldn't allow us to leave quietly if we desired to take back control of our borders.
It is bloody obvious that the EU wants both free movement, and our money, and if they get neither, it's going to get ugly.
Click to expand...

I think if it wasn't for the risk of around 4m people on both sides of the channel suddenly being left completed fecked if there was no deal, quite a lot of Europe would be ok with Britain just buggering off now.
 
Kentonio said:
I think if it wasn't for the risk of around 4m people on both sides of the channel suddenly being left completed fecked if there was no deal, quite a lot of Europe would be ok with Britain just buggering off now.
Click to expand...
No they need the money too.

But yes, beyond the money and the right for their low skilled workers to work here the EU doesn't much care about the UK for anything else.
 
Kentonio said:
I think if it wasn't for the risk of around 4m people on both sides of the channel suddenly being left completed fecked if there was no deal, quite a lot of Europe would be ok with Britain just buggering off now.
Click to expand...
I think the most worrying thing of all for the EU is the potential loss of investment from the UK. My feeling is that they will concede the UK border issue, but will be determined make it cost us. And so the negotiating will centre around finances mostly. The conservative election manifesto didn't factor in the considerable savings we would make by leaving the EU, which means that a deal with the EU may well involve at lot of our money. You would think the tories would be very vocal about our potential savings as a non member, but they're not. No one is mentioning it.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
I think the most worrying thing of all for the EU is the potential loss of investment from the UK. My feeling is that they will concede the UK border issue, but will be determined make it cost us. And so the negotiating will centre around finances mostly
Click to expand...

Why are you guys so convinced Europe cares about UK money? You know both France and Germany have bigger economies right?

vidic blood & sand said:
The conservative election manifesto didn't factor in the considerable savings we would make by leaving the EU, which means that a deal with the EU may well involve at lot of our money. You would think the tories would be very vocal about our potential savings as a non member, but they're not. No one is mentioning it.
Click to expand...

Perhaps because its ridiculously untrue, and anyone who budgets for a saving that will actually be a massive economic hit is going to look extremely stupid when they have to suddenly try and find billions of pounds from nowhere?
 
Kentonio said:
Why are you guys so convinced Europe cares about UK money? You know both France and Germany have bigger economies right?

Perhaps because its ridiculously untrue, and anyone who budgets for a saving that will actually be a massive economic hit is going to look extremely stupid when they have to suddenly try and find billions of pounds from nowhere?
Click to expand...

France and Germany don't need our contributions, the EU does.
If you have a budget that depends on three lodgers in a house, and one leaves, you'll need to either make the other two pay more, find another lodger, or find an alternative means of capital.
The EU knows that the UK would be willing to compromise financially for free access to the single market, and so they will be determined to maximise this bargaining chip to their favour. However, they will also understand that tariffs will hurt EU countries more than us, and so they will want to avoid going down that route.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
France and Germany don't need our contributions, the EU does.
If you have a budget that depends on three lodgers in a house, and one leaves, you'll need to either make the other two pay more, find another lodger, or find an alternative means of capital.
The EU knows that the UK would be willing to compromise financially for free access to the single market, and so they will be determined to maximise this bargaining chip to their favour. However, they will also understand that tariffs will hurt EU countries more than us, and so they will want to avoid going down that route.
Click to expand...

You are not getting access to the free market through money.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
France and Germany don't need our contributions, the EU does.
If you have a budget that depends on three lodgers in a house, and one leaves, you'll need to either make the other two pay more, find another lodger, or find an alternative means of capital.
The EU knows that the UK would be willing to compromise financially for free access to the single market, and so they will be determined to maximise this bargaining chip to their favour. However, they will also understand that tariffs will hurt EU countries more than us, and so they will want to avoid going down that route.
Click to expand...

Also because of the rebates around 35% of your contribution, you are the fourth contributor behind Italy.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
The reason why us leavers voted to leave is because we hate the nasty EU. We all knew after the referendum that the EU wouldn't allow us to leave quietly if we desired to take back control of our borders.
It is bloody obvious that the EU wants both free movement, and our money, and if they get neither, it's going to get ugly.
Click to expand...

Hate isn't a reason.

And I'm not sure how you are getting back control of your borders since a) you never lost control and b) the border between Northern and Southern Ireland will remain full open most likely. Still no idea why you would want to protect yourself from the predominantly emploted people who moved here from other EU countries addressing skill shortages, doing the jobs Brits don't want to do and hugely contributing to our tax revenues while they are about it. The bastards.

The way you charavterise the EU's stand is also deluded. The EU want us to stay. If we leave they of course want a deal that both works for them and involves us paying our already agreed to obligations especially as the EU has spending obligations in the UK.
 
Wibble said:
I'm not sure why leavers are confused about the EU's position. Broadly there are 4 things they want from the process.

1) Not reward countries for leaving as they have an interest in more countries not leaving.
2) Do the best trade deal for the EU. If the UK's demands mean this is no deal then so be it.
3) Make sensible arrangements for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa, if the UK allows this to happen.
4) Negotiate a mutually sensible financial exit arrangement.

Leavers seem to think the UK's interests should trump the EU's interests by default and start crying "I hate the nasty EU" when reality starts to creep in.
Click to expand...


Why would any other member even think about leaving such an economic and political paradise ?

And why would the EU even think that one of them just might be thinking about it ??

The other three comments I agree with.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
France and Germany don't need our contributions, the EU does.
If you have a budget that depends on three lodgers in a house, and one leaves, you'll need to either make the other two pay more, find another lodger, or find an alternative means of capital.
Click to expand...

They're mostly pissed because Britain is the lodger who signed up to lots of long term financial commitments and has now declared its moving out and stiffing everyone else with the bills. Long term they'll just adjust the budget to compensate and get on with their business.

vidic blood & sand said:
The EU knows that the UK would be willing to compromise financially for free access to the single market, and so they will be determined to maximise this bargaining chip to their favour. However, they will also understand that tariffs will hurt EU countries more than us, and so they will want to avoid going down that route.
Click to expand...

Why do you imagine for a second that tariffs would hurt them more than us? About half of our trade is with the EU, and only about 10-15% of theirs is with us. Any trade war leads to Britain getting screwed.
 
Wibble said:
Hate isn't a reason.

And I'm not sure how you are getting back control of your borders since a) you never lost control and b) the border between Northern and Southern Ireland will remain full open most likely. Still no idea why you would want to protect yourself from the predominantly emploted people who moved here from other EU countries addressing skill shortages, doing the jobs Brits don't want to do and hugely contributing to our tax revenues while they are about it. The bastards.
Click to expand...

Driving down wages for the british working class.

The way you charavterise the EU's stand is also deluded. The EU want us to stay. If we leave they of course want a deal that both works for them and involves us paying our already agreed to obligations especially as the EU has spending obligations in the UK.
Click to expand...

Leaving the EU ought to nullify obligations agreed or not after the date the UK is no longer a member. Including the meagre benefits received by the EU compared to other members.
 
The UK is the one desperate to keep any close collaboration not the EU. The EU only want to make sure there's an orderly divorce
 
vidic blood & sand said:
What about taking into consideration the benefits received from the EU (net contributons)?
Click to expand...

To be honest, this year I don't know because it fluctuates. Some year the UK are below Netherlands and other years they are above France with Germany always first. So to be fair to everyone the UK, France, Netherland and Italy are close in net contribution.

Here you can have an idea, http://english.eu.dk/en/faq/faq/net_contribution
 
Kentonio said:
In jobs that the British working class have absolutely no interest in actually doing.
Click to expand...
Thats not sustainable long term though is it. We cant just keep bringing in new people and have more and more locals on benefits just because they have an easy out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.