Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
vidic blood & sand said:
Personally I do not believe there can be a deal, which is why the EU and European member state leaders are making a stand against Britain getting a deal better than the one we currently have within the EU.
The UK will not get any willing favours from the EU, that's for sure, and so it is how the UK responds.
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One thing is absolutely certain, the UK will have a worse deal than they currently have - there is no other option.
I don't see how May can negotiate a deal that satisfies the Leave voters. Either she does a deal which will not be hard brexit that means very little changes except the UK will have no say in the EU parliament or she goes for the hard brexit that means no deal or very minor at best.

This is why I think she has called an election now , not to get extra strength for the Brexit negotiations, but because in a few years time has a good idea she will probably be popular with neither the Leavers nor the Remainers.
 
Rams said:
The EU is a union of member states. You can imagine that the Netherlands, who do a roaring trade with the UK, will have a difference stance towards Brexit than for example Spain. In other words, it's a fallacy to claim that the EU is attempting to reach a deal on their terms even if the EU have an obligation to protect the interests of the member states that make up the EU. You can also imagine that the EU do not what to set a precedent that may endanger its future. The EU need to find the right balance in protecting the interests of the EU member states, yet reaching a deal which will also help keeping a healthy & friendly relationship with post Brexit UK. From the EU's perspective Brexit is very much a case of damage limitation. There are only going to be losers from this bad situation.
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Well it is very very bad for the EU, as they're going to be losing one of it's main contributors to it's budget. This in itself goes a little bit beyond damage limitation ha ha.
At this moment in time we do not know how ugly the EU will be with it's terms of departure, and how defiant we will be in response. There's going to be some very severe threats directed towards us that will be headline news in papers like the guardian, and will cause the fainthearted teeth chattering remainers to express their frustrations, and then there will be severe counter threats from us etc
We're in for a long drawn out bloody process I think. Ultimately I do not think there will be a trade deal in place for years, and we will rely on WTO rules which isn't ideal, but can be part funded from the money saved from our lack of membership. While at the same time possibly trading freely with other nations.
 
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UK's contributions are not a charity. we don't give money to win their EU's love like we pay pocket money to our children. We get things in return for our contributions.

How difficult is that to understand?
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Well it is very very bad for the EU, as they're going to be losing one of it's main contributors to it's budget. This in itself goes a little bit beyond damage limitation ha ha.
At this moment in time we do not know how ugly the EU will be with it's terms of departure, and how defiant we will be in response. There's going to be some very severe threats directed towards us that will be headline news in papers like the guardian, and will cause the fainthearted teeth chattering remainers to express their frustrations, and then there will be severe counter threats from us etc
We're in for a long drawn out bloody process I think. Ultimately I do not think there will be a trade deal in place for years, and we will rely on WTO rules which isn't ideal, but can be part funded from the money saved from our lack of membership. While at the same time possibly trading freely with other nations.
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You do realise that it is the consumer who will be paying the tariffs, ie the man/woman in the street and not the government. You have to renegotiate all the deals as the deals currently in place were being part of the EU.
 
WackyWengerWorld said:
It's very simple maths that if your currency devalues by 20% then your imports will go up by 20%. Even British produce has gone up though, presumably because there is now greater demand from abroad with the weaker pound.

Loss Leaders likes milk have gone up by about 10%, smart price tinned tomatos have gone up from 25p to 29p. Supermarkets have publically argued with suppliers about it and suppliers have responded by having smaller packets or less quality. Branded tinned tomatoes have less tomatoes and more tomato juice. Frozen chicken now has more water added.

So yes I'd say real inflation 15-20% is about right.
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This is my last post on this matter as I can't be bothered to keep going back and forth but to state real inflation has gone 15-20% up due to a weaker pound is absolute nonsense.

12 months before the vote the £ to Euro exchange rate was the same if not worse than it was now. Currency is on an ever changing fluctuation.

All supermarkets would be hedging for Forex risk months, even in a year in advance to reduce this risk of sudden changes in currency.

I personally haven't seen any difference in food prices other than the normal inflation rise, which everyone now blames on Brexit without giving it any thought whatsoever. Giving 3 examples doesn't prove your point.

That's like me saying I've seen steak, mushrooms and cheese cheaper on the shelf compared to last month and that is due to Brexit. There are many more factors.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Well it is very very bad for the EU, as they're going to be losing one of it's main contributors to it's budget. This in itself goes a little bit beyond damage limitation ha ha.
At this moment in time we do not know how ugly the EU will be with it's terms of departure, and how defiant we will be in response. There's going to be some very severe threats directed towards us that will be headline news in papers like the guardian, and will cause the fainthearted teeth chattering remainers to express their frustrations, and then there will be severe counter threats from us etc
We're in for a long drawn out bloody process I think. Ultimately I do not think there will be a trade deal in place for years, and we will rely on WTO rules which isn't ideal, but can be part funded from the money saved from our lack of membership. While at the same time possibly trading freely with other nations.
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I hate to break the news to you, but it's the UK which will be far and away the biggest losers and it'll be the working class, the ones who actually voted for Brexit, who'll end up paying for it.
After the UK has left the EU it won't take you long to realise that in no way will trade with other countries make up for the loss because Britain on its own in the big wide World is like paddling up shit creek without a paddle.
On a positive note, it should make the British public smell the roses and after all this time finally realise that they are no longer a super power with an empire, but a relatively small mostly insignificant country on the grand scale of things. Rule Britannia!
 
Sultan said:
UK's contributions are not a charity. we don't give money to win their EU's love like we pay pocket money to our children. We get things in return for our contributions.

How difficult is that to understand?
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Our return is nothing compared to what we contribute to the EU and it's member states, hence the reason we've been hit with £50B bill. The EU is worried about it's commitments. The money has to come from somewhere.
 
Josep Dowling said:
This is my last post on this matter as I can't be bothered to keep going back and forth but to state real inflation has gone 15-20% up due to a weaker pound is absolute nonsense.

12 months before the vote the £ to Euro exchange rate was the same if not worse than it was now. Currency is on an ever changing fluctuation.

All supermarkets would be hedging for Forex risk months, even in a year in advance to reduce this risk of sudden changes in currency.

I personally haven't seen any difference in food prices other than the normal inflation rise, which everyone now blames on Brexit without giving it any thought whatsoever. Giving 3 examples doesn't prove your point.

That's like me saying I've seen steak, mushrooms and cheese cheaper on the shelf compared to last month and that is due to Brexit. There are many more factors.
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If the UK doesn't reach a trade deal with the UK and end up trading with the EU on WTO terms, what do you expect will happen with the prices then?
 
Rams said:
I hate to break the news to you, but it's the UK which will be far and away the biggest losers and it'll be the working class, the ones who actually voted for Brexit, who'll end up paying for it.
After the UK has left the EU it won't take you long to realise that in no way will trade with other countries make up for the loss because Britain on its own in the big wide World is like paddling up shit creek without a paddle.
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Well you're wrong right here for a start. Trade with EU countries cannot cease. Why would European leaders insist on putting a trade barrier up to one of it's biggest customers?
And if they did that out of spite, why would we want to belong with them in the first place?

On a positive note, it should make the British public smell the roses and after all this time finally realise that they are no longer a super power with an empire, but a relatively small mostly insignificant country on the grand scale of things. Rule Britannia!
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Well you need to get you're facts right before throwing yourself under the Eurostar.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Our return is nothing compared to what we contribute to the EU and it's member states, hence the reason we've been hit with £50B bill. The EU is worried about it's commitments. The money has to come from somewhere.
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The EU is worried about the UK not honoring its commitments you mean. A bit like a landlord of a pub worrying about a punter not paying their bar tab.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Well you're wrong right here for a start. Trade with EU countries cannot cease. Why would European leaders insist on putting a trade barrier up to one of it's biggest customers?
And if they did that out of spite, why would we want to belong with them in the first place?



Well you need to get you're facts right before throwing yourself under the Eurostar.
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Well, do you realise if a deal is not reached then the UK will end up trading with the EU on WTO terms? And what facts exactly are you referring to?
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Well you're wrong right here for a start. Trade with EU countries cannot cease. Why would European leaders insist on putting a trade barrier up to one of it's biggest customers?
And if they did that out of spite, why would we want to belong with them in the first place?
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Trade will not cease it will just cost you a lot more, I just don't get why the UK leavers think the EU is going to fall over itself trying to please them
 
Rams said:
The EU is worried about the UK not honoring its commitments you mean. A bit like a landlord of a pub worrying about a punter not paying their bar tab.
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This might be a valid point if the UK had been handed a proper tab with a breakdown of the bill, but it hasn't. The figure has been made up, and we're just expected to pay it. So you analogy works against you.
Not to mention the fact that we have been investment partners in all the EU has done, like helping to fund it's spectacular buildings etc. Where's our settlement in all this?
 
vidic blood & sand said:
This might be a valid point if the UK had been handed a proper tab with a breakdown of the bill, but it hasn't. The figure has been made up, and we're just expected to pay it. So you analogy works against you.
Not to mention the fact that we have been investment partners in all the EU has done, like helping to fund it's spectacular buildings etc. Where's our settlement in all this?
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Do you seriously think the EU is going to throw a number to the UK without the details, you should avoid reading the Mail Sun and the like
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Trade will not cease it will just cost you a lot more, I just don't get why the UK leavers think the EU is going to fall over itself trying to please them
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I don't think most leavers think that they will, they wanted to leave the EU and the rest is mostly in your head.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Trade will not cease it will just cost you a lot more, I just don't get why the UK leavers think the EU is going to fall over itself trying to please them
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I'm a leaver, but I have already told you that I do not think the UK will get a lucrative trade deal with the EU without free movement of people. It won't happen until the EU is reformed, which I believe is a certainty. Even Macron is now demanding reform, and if Le Pen wins, the EU is even more trouble. And so at the moment we are at a standoff. If people are truly honest with themselves, at this moment we are heading towards no deal. This is not the best situation for both the EU or the UK, but at the moment the EU and Euro leaders are playing the threatening game in order to divide us and cause a dramatic change of heart from within. Hence the need for strong and stable leadership :D
 
vidic blood & sand said:
This might be a valid point if the UK had been handed a proper tab with a breakdown of the bill, but it hasn't. The figure has been made up, and we're just expected to pay it. So you analogy works against you.
Not to mention the fact that we have been investment partners in all the EU has done, like helping to fund it's spectacular buildings etc. Where's our settlement in all this?
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The figure has been made up alright... by the British press. The total amount of the commitments is as yet unknown. It could 10billion, 50billion or even 100billion. What we do know is that the EU want reassurances that the UK will honour its commitments before the EU start the negotiations. If not, no deal. Objectively speaking one can only conclude that the EU are not being unreasonable on this subject, just as its not unreasonable to think that the UK are not being unreasonable wanting a deal on limitations of freedom of movement.
 
Back after almost a month away and nothing much changes, does it ?

Not even started negotiaitions on citizens yet, thuggish threats from the EU, nonsense platitudes from the UK.....And Juncker being a slimeball cnut yet again.

Wake me up when the serious stuff starts....
 
vidic blood & sand said:
I'm a leaver, but I have already told you that I do not think the UK will get a lucrative trade deal with the EU without free movement of people. It won't happen until the EU is reformed, which I believe is a certainty. Even Macron is now demanding reform, and if Le Pen wins, the EU is even more trouble. And so at the moment we are at a standoff. If people are truly honest with themselves, at this moment we are heading towards no deal. This is not the best situation for both the EU or the UK, but at the moment the EU and Euro leaders are playing the threatening game in order to divide us and cause a dramatic change of heart from within. Hence the need for strong and stable leadership :D
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I have it on good authority from this thread that there are no valid reasons to leave this perfect union. Anyone who says that there are is a racist who eats the children of immigrants.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
I'm a leaver, but I have already told you that I do not think the UK will get a lucrative trade deal with the EU without free movement of people. It won't happen until the EU is reformed, which I believe is a certainty. Even Macron is now demanding reform, and if Le Pen wins, the EU is even more trouble. And so at the moment we are at a standoff. If people are truly honest with themselves, at this moment we are heading towards no deal. This is not the best situation for both the EU or the UK, but at the moment the EU and Euro leaders are playing the threatening game in order to divide us and cause a dramatic change of heart from within. Hence the need for strong and stable leadership :D
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No-one has said the EU is perfect and most agree that reforms will be made, before hopefully with the UK being part of that. The EU know the UK will leave , they would prefer the UK to stay but they're not going to try to persuade them to stay, that's in the past. The Uk is leaving and yes probably with no deal.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I have it on good authority from this thread that there are no valid reasons to leave this perfect union. Anyone who says that there are is a racist who eats the children of immigrants.
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What are the UK's reasons for wanting to leave the EU and why will Britain be better off outside the EU?

...should be enough stuff there to debate on for the next 368 pages of this thread :D
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Yes.

Nothing wrong with reading the papers, as long as their bias is taken into consideration. That works both ways.
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100% that is not the case, figures will be given for many different things and it will be the job of the UK negotiators to discuss these points with the EU negotiators. This will be one of the first things discussed along with UK and EU citizens rights.
 
Full bodied red said:
Back after almost a month away and nothing much changes, does it ?

Not even started negotiaitions on citizens yet, thuggish threats from the EU, nonsense platitudes from the UK.....And Juncker being a slimeball cnut yet again.

Wake me up when the serious stuff starts....
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The EU games have only just started. Divide and conquer is their new motto. Much like a lot on here they just don't understand the Brits at all, but they think they do.

Ah well.
 
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