Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Classical Mechanic]

So? They act from a position of strenght and bully the player overestimating his cards. Pretty standard. I really do think Brits, yet again, overestimate their own importance. This is just what the EU does to minor foreign powers.

You are obviously judging this from an emotional perspective.

If the EU are using bully boy tactics, as you say, then of course the UK should push back.

The proof is in the pudding, the EU are not acting like they are dealing with an unimportant entity here.

 

[JPRouve]

Strategic and damning leaks of an informal dinner and talks that included Junker supposedly saying 'a trade deal is now 10 times less likely to happen' (what drama) and contacting the BBC to confirm the details after Downing Street brushed it off as 'Brussels gossip'.

Negotiations haven't even started!

Like fcbforever wrote that's standard. Juncker is a drama queen everyone knows that and he isn't really important(despite his position), Barnier is a lot more important because he is the one actually carrying the members will and the one actually negotiating.

 

[fcbforever]

You are obviously judging this from an emotional perspective.

If the EU are using bully boy tactics, as you say, then of course the UK should push back.

The proof is in the pudding, the EU are not acting like they are dealing with an unimportant entity here.

"Unimportant" is not the same as acknowledging that one economy is roughly 6 times as big as the other one, and the bigger one is rightly baffled that the small one thinks it can dictate the way things go. How's that emotional?
Sorry, you are being emotional here. You seem to desperately searching for signs that this shitshow of an executive somehow has got a working plan when it just doesn't.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

"Unimportant" is not the same as acknowledging that one economy is roughly 6 times as big as the other one, and the bigger one is rightly baffled that the small one things it can dictate the way things go. How's that emotional?
Sorry, you are being emotional here. You seem to desperately searching for signs that this shitshow of an executive somehow has got a working plan when it just doesn't.

I fully acknowledge that the UK is the junior partner here, it is an inalienable fact. In any negotiation the junior partner should always push back as much as they can to seek a favourable deal.

The idea that the UK should simply wilt and accept all the EU's demands straight away, as a negotiating tactic, is ridiculous.

 

[fcbforever]

I fully acknowledge that the UK is the junior partner here, it is an inalienable fact. In any negotiation the junior partner should always push back as much as they can to seek a favourable deal.

The idea that the UK should simply wilt and accept all the EU's demands straight away, as a negotiating tactic, is ridiculous.

Absolutely. What is baffling us Europeans right now, including Juncker, is the fact that the UK (or, May & gouverment) is not only pushing back, but is instead seemingly expecting the EU to simply wilt and accept all of its demands.

This really is a misconception, nobody expects the UK to just bend over, but right now the UK is acting like it completely dictate what will happening. And now, with a partner 6 times as big you can't do this, you will have to find a middle road if you want to have an agreement in the end.
At the current rate, the UK really just will crash and burn out of the EU because of this stupid way of handling negotiations.

 

[JPRouve]

I fully acknowledge that the UK is the junior partner here, it is an inalienable fact. In any negotiation the junior partner should always push back as much as they can to seek a favourable deal.

The idea that the UK should simply wilt and accept all the EU's demands straight away, as a negotiating tactic, is ridiculous.

That idea doesn't exist though, for the simple reason that the EU hasn't asked for anything yet. At the moment the problem is that the UK are trying to obtain things that have been excluded by EU members as a whole, I imagine that the UK are just testing the water though since I don't believe that they are idiots, they have been members of the EU for a long time and they know that EU negotiators aren't exactly easy.

 

[WackyWengerWorld]

I'm sure that the EU understand her stance. The EU's reaction to an informal meeting has been extraordinary. They even got in touch with the BBC to confirm that it wasn't 'Brussel's gossip'. I don't think it will have the desired effect of trying to undermine her domestically with the election coming up, if that is their reasoning. The Brexit bunch will be delighted with her rattling the EU.

What happened to the EU not caring about a trade deal with the UK? Their heavy handed actions suggest that they are quite worried about something.

They don't. Rather than being worried it suggests they're following through on their threat to make sure Brexit doesn't work. If they block a trade deal they take big business from Britain into EU nation states. The beomouth will always win in a trade war.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Does May actually expect what will be discussed in the negotiations to remain secret and if so who is it that she doesn't want them to find out, the British public?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

That idea doesn't exist though, for the simple reason that the EU hasn't asked for anything yet. At the moment the problem is that the UK are trying to obtain things that have been excluded by EU members as a whole, I imagine that the UK are just testing the water though since I don't believe that they are idiots, they have been members of the EU for a long time and they know that EU negotiators aren't exactly easy.

They have made clear certain sticking points, including the 'divorce bill' which is the bone of contention in this case.

 

[adexkola]

She doesn't have a clue, does she?

 

[Cassidy]

That idea doesn't exist though, for the simple reason that the EU hasn't asked for anything yet. At the moment the problem is that the UK are trying to obtain things that have been excluded by EU members as a whole, I imagine that the UK are just testing the water though since I don't believe that they are idiots, they have been members of the EU for a long time and they know that EU negotiators aren't exactly easy.

They have, or at least made it known that the UK will have to pay an exit fee.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

That idea doesn't exist though, for the simple reason that the EU hasn't asked for anything yet. At the moment the problem is that the UK are trying to obtain things that have been excluded by EU members as a whole, I imagine that the UK are just testing the water though since I don't believe that they are idiots, they have been members of the EU for a long time and they know that EU negotiators aren't exactly easy.

Are you quite sure about this, no signs yet to the contrary.

 

[JPRouve]

They have made clear certain sticking points, including the 'divorce bill' which is the bone of contention in this case.

They have, or at least made it known that the UK will have to pay an exit fee.

Not really, the UK and the EU have liabilities and it's important for both side to settle them. The UK will either pay their part in advance or legally acknowledge their liabilities. You don't really expect to leave the bill on the table.

 

[pcaming]

Can someone explain exactly why the EU needs the UK? I don't understand the position of strength the Uk has.

 

[Cassidy]

Not really, the UK and the EU have liabilities and it's important for both side to settle them. The UK will either pay their part in advance or legally acknowledge their liabilities. You don't really expect to leave the bill on the table.

Maybe I misunderstand. Here is my take, and by no means am I saying I agree with the standpoint of the UK.

Both sides have liabilities: Yes
Both sides agree on whos liabilities are bigger (or who would owe who when liabilities are netted): No
The EU say the UK would need to pay up, the UK is taking the stance of disagreeing.

 

[JPRouve]

Maybe I misunderstand. Here is my take, and by no means am I saying I agree with the standpoint of the UK.

Both sides have liabilities: Yes
Both sides agree on whos liabilities are bigger (or who would owe who when liabilities are netted): No
The EU say the UK would need to pay up, the UK is taking the stance of disagreeing.

I found this helpful and balanced both sides liabilities are acknowledged but look at the last to points, those are the problems.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/eu-divorce-bill

 

[PedroMendez]

Can someone explain exactly why the EU needs the UK? I don't understand the position of strength the Uk has.

Trade is a plus sum game; both sides win or both sides loose. The UK economy is almost as big as the economy of the 20 smallest EU countries combined. It is not hard to see why both sides benefit from cooperation. Additionally the EU economy is structured along the lines of the single market. So when a big member leaves, that creates a lot of disruption for both sides. The UK is not in a position of strength but in the end the dynamic of these negotiations are the same for both sides: Either both sides minimize detrimental effects or both sides suffer from them. The EU economy is still bigger than the UK economy, so the “per capita” downsides are smaller. Yet the EU is never going to benefit from “punishing” the UK without also hurting themselves.

Ignoring some of the vocal idiots on the European side, European politicians seem to be aware of that. I am actually quite encouraged from what they said so far. They walked back on the 60bn figure and just said, that both sides have to settle promised contribution; that is necessary and reasonable. It is also reasonable to negotiate some of the key issues before moving on towards a new trade deal. Yet the EU was always willing to offer a transition agreement. Overall I was worried, that the EU is trying to push an extra hard bargain, but most of what they said is quite okay. Extensive transparency is also an important issue. Due to the experience with TPIP, the EU is moving towards a level of transparency that is unheard of on national level. I am usually very critical of the EU, but they deserve praise for that and hopefully they are able to set a standard that national governments are going to follow.

The stance of the UK side is a bit confusing in the sense that they still don’t seem to know what they want. Instead of showing good faith and starting to negotiate the details, they are still stuck in campaign mode. 2 years is a very short time and they shouldn’t waste a single day on bullshit.

It almost looks like they want to end up with WTO rules.

 

[Cassidy]

I found this helpful and balanced both sides liabilities are acknowledged but look at the last to points, those are the problems.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/eu-divorce-bill

Yes that is what I am saying (again not saying I agree with the UK stance) but my point originally was that the EU has asked for something already or at least drawn their line in the sand by taking the stance that the UK WILL owe a divorce bill.

If the UK stance is that there are other financials which need to be taken into case and can offset such a bill (for instance European Investment Bank capital payments)

Then the UK may disagree.

 

[JPRouve]

Yes that is what I am saying (again not saying I agree with the UK stance) but my point originally was that the EU has asked for something already or at least drawn their line in the sand by taking the stance that the UK WILL owe a divorce bill.

If the UK stance is that there are other financials which need to be taken into case and can offset such a bill (for instance European Investment Bank capital payments)

Then the UK may disagree.

No the EU has estimated it, which is different from a demand, while the UK don't want to talk about it and seem to say "you can't make us pay". If the UK were acknowledging the subject and were willing to negotiate or discuss about it there would be little problems but it is seemingly not what is happening.

Your second point is basically what should be expected but isn't apparently happening, that type of attitude will be a problem when both sides will meet again for a deal.

 

[Cassidy]

No the EU has estimated it, which is different from a demand, while the UK don't want to talk about it and seem to say "you can't make us pay". If the UK were acknowledging the subject and were willing to negotiate or discuss about it there would be little problems but it is seemingly not what is happening.

Your second point is basically what should be expected but isn't apparently happening, that type of attitude will be a problem when both sides will meet again for a deal.

Fair enough. Well I can't say I am all that confident about the UK government and their ability to handle these talks well who, knows what will happens.
Since the negotiations haven't yet started though, lets hope its all grandstanding.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I expect the UK government's tone to change once the UK general election is over. Domestically battling with the EU is good political currency for them.

Correct me if I am wrong but the real negotiations won't start until late summer regardless?

 

[Cheesy]

I expect the UK government's tone to change once the UK general election is over. Domestically battling with the EU is good political currency for them.

Correct me if I am wrong but the real negotiations won't start until late summer regardless?

True, but this in itself is quite reckless considering A50's already been activated - they should be working on negotiations now instead of politically pandering to the electorate.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I expect the UK government's tone to change once the UK general election is over. Domestically battling with the EU is good political currency for them.

Correct me if I am wrong but the real negotiations won't start until late summer regardless?

Negotiations are supposed to start after the election in June. The clock started ticking when A50 was triggered so three months wasted plus the EU expect to finish talks 6 months before the end of the 2 years to get approval by the EU27.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Negotiations are supposed to start after the election in June. The clock started ticking when A50 was triggered so three months wasted plus the EU expect to finish talks 6 months before the end of the 2 years to get approval by the EU27.

I'm pretty sure I heard this on Radio 4 that the negotiations couldn't start because of the French elections and then the EU officials have July as a month when they take annual leave so in real terms it would be later in the summer regardless.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I'm pretty sure I heard this on Radio 4 that the negotiations couldn't start because of the French elections and then the EU officials have July as a month when they take annual leave so in real terms it would be later in the summer regardless.

It may well turn out like that and also there are the German elections in September , not a lot of time

 

[WackyWengerWorld]

I'm pretty sure I heard this on Radio 4 that the negotiations couldn't start because of the French elections and then the EU officials have July as a month when they take annual leave so in real terms it would be later in the summer regardless.

Pity the strong stable leadership didn't actually factor that in before activating A50

 

[NinjaFletch]

> Reliant on good will for a trade deal
> Negotiating position is to be a fly in the ointment

What a bloody genius May is.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39784170

 

[Classical Mechanic]

It may well turn out like that and also there are the German elections in September , not a lot of time

Pity the strong stable leadership didn't actually factor that in before activating A50

The EU have said that the period can be extended. The Qatar World Cup will likely happen before we actually leave.

> Reliant on good will for a trade deal
> Negotiating position is to be a fly in the ointment

What a bloody genius May is.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39784170

We aren't reliant on good will for anything. The exit deal will be struck purely on pragmatic terms for both parties.

 

[NinjaFletch]

The EU have said that the period can be extended. The Qatar World Cup will likely happen before we actually leave.



We aren't reliant on good will for anything. The exit deal will be struck purely on pragmatic terms for both parties.

Which is why we are reliant on good will, because what Leavers want and what we will get on pragmatic terms are universes apart.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Which is why we are reliant on good will, because what Leavers want and what we will get on pragmatic terms are universes apart.

I could be wrong but I think the tone will change once she has secured power in the GE. It seems pretty obvious that she is now playing to the Brexit crowd. According @JPRouve Junker doesn't have much real influence anyway so trolling him is no great issue.

 

[NinjaFletch]

I could be wrong but I think the tone will change once she has secured power in the GE. It seems pretty obvious that she is now playing to the Brexit crowd. According @JPRouve Junker doesn't have much real influence anyway so trolling him is no great issue.

I don't think she's that clever, and I've seen nothing to suggest she's anywhere near that savvy an operator. She seems to have decided that her only real bargaining chip is to threaten to be really disruptive, which I'm sure will be irritating for the EU, and might cause a bit of a headache, but there's a time limit on these things at which point we leave anyway.

It's a risky strategy if that is what she's playing at as well. The Press will eat her alive if she talks tough now and is seen to have given in by the end of the A50 process.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The EU have said that the period can be extended. The Qatar World Cup will likely happen before we actually leave.

We aren't reliant on good will for anything. The exit deal will be struck purely on pragmatic terms for both parties.

The talks will be ongoing (for years) for a new deal but the Uk will leave, unless they decide to stay or accept the price of the single market if that's what they want in the meantime, before the EU elections in 2019.
But if May looks for a Hard Brexit and carries on this stance of cake and eat it the talks could finish before that

 

[Classical Mechanic]

The talks will be ongoing (for years) for a new deal but the Uk will leave, unless they decide to stay or accept the price of the single market if that's what they want in the meantime, before the EU elections in 2019.
But if May looks for a Hard Brexit and carries on this stance of cake and eat it the talks could finish before that

The EU say that a transition deal can be agreed to last up to three years after 2019.

 

[JPRouve]

I could be wrong but I think the tone will change once she has secured power in the GE. It seems pretty obvious that she is now playing to the Brexit crowd. According @JPRouve Junker doesn't have much real influence anyway so trolling him is no great issue.

Juncker as the commission president has power inside the EU but when it comes to foreign policy and negotiations it's all about Tusk and Barnier who are both representing the members states.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The EU say that a transition deal can be agreed to last up to three years after 2019.

But what does that transitional deal include, for example will the Uk have MEPs in the next EU parliament?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

But what does that transitional deal include, for example will the Uk have MEPs in the next EU parliament?

Not sure. It will have reduced terms, however. It will be there to smooth the adjustment process for both sides.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Not sure. It will have reduced terms, however. It will be there to smooth the adjustment process for both sides.

A smooth process would be best for both sides but I don't see how it will work, sounds like a half-cocked Norway model. The first few weeks or months of the negotiations should give an idea in which directions things were heading.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

A smooth process would be best for both sides but I don't see how it will work, sounds like a half-cocked Norway model. The first few weeks or months of the negotiations should give an idea in which directions things were heading.

The EU proposed a Ukraine style associate member deal at the end of it all but they want a list of agreements on things like climate change etc, but probably most crucially that the UK doesn't become a tax haven for big business. The UK would also have to pay membership fees which would be politically difficult.

 

[Kentonio]

I could be wrong but I think the tone will change once she has secured power in the GE. It seems pretty obvious that she is now playing to the Brexit crowd. According @JPRouve Junker doesn't have much real influence anyway so trolling him is no great issue.

The reason I don't believe this is largely because of the gossip coming out of the civil service a while ago. At a time when they were desperately trying to assemble as much information as possible about the effects of leaving Europe and the various options, they were being scolded by ministers for internally presenting evidence of potential negative effects, some of which were extremely serious indeed.

I know its tempting to thing that the government are just playing a clever game and that once the election is out of the way they'll moderate their position, but there has been nothing to suggest this is actually true. We're basically left hoping to hell that they've been putting on a facade for the last year, and not just in front of the press but in front of the civil service, foreign governments and each other. It's just not plausible.

 

[Red Defence]

She doesn't have a clue, does she?

Juncker is not only quite obnoxious but a bit of a creep to boot. I didn't expect it go well. May will have little time for someone with as rude a manner as old Juncks.

She won't be a pushover either. The UK has as much of a right to dictate proceedings as the EU. They are not in charge of us you know. Negotiations should be carried out in a way that suits both sides.