This I can confirm. It's non-news in Europe at the moment...
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Imran (@Annihilate Now!) are here to discuss Amad saving our blushes in a win against Southampton as well as our now annual loss at home to Brighton. They discuss Amorim's post-match comments, revisit how mid-table we may or may not be, and discuss some transfer news.
This I can confirm. It's non-news in Europe at the moment...
Just wait until Sterling clearance is done in the Eurozone
You know what, none of us give a toss whether Brexit make headlines in Europe or not. It shouldn't still be making headlines because it's our decision not theirs. If say Malta decided to leave then fine, it's up to them. If they decide to stay in then that's fine too, it's up to them. The sooner people accept that our decision is exactly that, ours to choose and make not theirs, then the better the relationships will be between everyone. Accept our decision gracefully and deal with in in the same manner is the way to go.
Brilliant, time for them to get on with their own lives now.
The EU propose a Ukraine style associate membership kind of arrangement. This would give the UK favourable terms on single market access, border controls etc and the ability to sign bilateral deals with other countries. In return the UK would have to agree to maintaining various EU standards and pay a not unsubstantial yearly membership fee, about half of what it pays currently. I think this kind of arrangement could be politically possible in the UK.
I think you are wrong on the trade deal issue. The UK leaving the EU harms both the EU and the UK, a continued trading relationship is in the best interests of both parties. That the UK crashing out of the EU harms the UK more than the EU doesn't mean that Brussels punish the UK out of spite and to satisfy the big egos in Brussels, it is a ridiculous notion really. They will be economically pragmatic and seek to arrange a deal. If a mutually acceptable deal can be reached is another question altogether.
I assure you that most Europeans cant care less about the UK, Brexit or any trade deals. Its us who are caught in this shitfest that are concerned.
Regarding EU politicians, all they care about is for the UK to settle the bills. In matter of fact they resisted the UK's attempt to have parallel talks going on (trade deal and divorce). The former is not high priority for them. You can't really blame them. Trump's administration thinks that a trade deal with the UK is low priority and we all know that Trump has a soft spot towards Blighty.
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I am afraid that's something the EU had to decide. Don't forget that in two years time the UK is not part of the EU anymore and therefore it has no say if and what type of deal they are given. First priority is to settle the bills. The rest will be discussed later at the EU own leisure and once the UK is out.
Also note that its not fair to put the UK ahead of other countries who are more important (ex US or China) for the Union and had been waiting for a longer time. Don't take that as punishment. It takes time for 27 countries to agree on something. It won't be democratic if the EU signs anything so big against 1-2 country members will. Surely the UK can sympathise to that can they?
Two things is for sure.
a- there are countries whose hoping that Brexit will be a big big shitfest. One of whom happens to be my own country who saw a sharp increase in companies going there thanks to Brexit and will want more of it. These countries are all armed with a VETO and will sink any trade deal that is not good for them (not the Union or Germany but THEM)
b- The farther the UK goes from the EU standards the more difficult it will be for them to get a trade deal.
And please don't mix what Maltese/EU politicians thinks to what I feel. I am in the UK because I love the people and the lifestyle. In matter of fact all my qualifications are British (despite Malta give free tertiary education to everyone). I can assure you that I am in the UK for pure lifestyle. In matter of fact from a purely financially purposes I am better off in my country.
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If the transactions are done in Euro's then the European commission is going to force the clearing houses to do so from a EU member state or country on the continent. This is not an opinion or wishful thinking, this really is going to happen and the London stock exchange know fully well it's going to happen.
The penny still hasn't dropped has it? It's the UK that's going to suffer, my country. And that's why I do care about it far more then any of my Dutch colleagues, who don't really care and just feel sorry for the Brits for their stupidity.
I happening to have a friend who owns a construction company in my country. Office space is in ridiculous high demand at the moment thanks to Brexit. They are literally knocking new buildings down to rebuild them to suit office space. Meanwhile rent had gone up by 300% in the past year or so. I know, because I got some properties in Malta on rent and I cant believe my luck.
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Where as Britain it is the complete opposite. Given it's the only card we hold it'd be pragmatic to demand parallel talks or state no divorce payments will be forthcoming until a trade deal is arranged. Paying a large divorce bill and hoping they would offer a trade deal down the line would be a poor strategy and simply giving up Britain's trump card.
Well, you’ve got a point of course. ‘Brussels’ (ie the remaining 27) will be handed a big financial hole in their budget to fill. However, I am pretty sure that the EU will find a way to work things around that. Once the big General elections are out of the way, Germany/France will probably concede that they will have to pay slightly more and the remaining countries will have to live with less. The EU will also be handled a big scapegoat to blame (ie the UK) and will take this opportunity to make necessary reforms that are needed (i wonder what they will be and if they will be enough, but that's an argument for another day)
The populist spring took a rocking the day all 27 EU nations unified against Brexit. If Macron and Merkel win then I can see it die out completely. In matter of fact, even Trump seemed to have lost hope of seeing the EU destroyed any time soon. He wouldn't have placed the EU ahead of the trade deal queue if it wasn't the case. If the US (and the most anti European president of all people) cant remain hostile with Europe forever then imagine how important it is for the UK to seal a deal with its own continent.
In my opinion, the only leverage the UK had was article 50. No one could force the UK to activate it and no one could kick the UK out of the EU even if they wanted to do so. The UK could simply dig its heels and not activate article 50 unless an alternative trade deal is given first. Under such circumstances the European markets would start trembling long before the UK markets did and the UK would get its way. Unfortunately, May lacked the support to do so and had to surrender to the pressure of the Brexiters who wanted to leave the EU ASAP.
Another course of action that really needs to be explored is for the UK to become part of NAFTA. Unfortunately, NAFTA Is pretty dependent on Trump’s whims and we all know how unstable that man is. I can see him selling you out if that means getting a better deal with the EU.
im not a May supporter in fact im developing a strong dislike for her, even above my usual distain for conservative MP's, (i'm going to vote Labour in the General Election) but im struggling to see why she is getting so much criticism for saying 'no deal is better then a bad deal', what do we want her to say? we will take what ever deal the EU offers and pay as much as they like?
what am i missing?
what am i missing?
Probably the fact that during the campaign they promised we'd get whatever we wanted and the EU would fall to their knees begging us for amazing terms because we're such a massive empire that the world fear and respect in equal measure and that negotiating a much better deal will be so incredibly easy that Boris could even do it. Of course, anyone with more than 1 brain cell knew that wasn't going to be the case and that we'd be offered poor terms, but some people on here honestly believed we'd get whatever we wanted because the EU need us.
i get what your saying, but that still doesn't really add up the way people are attacking her, the way people are acting as if it is wrong for her to say no she won't just agree whatever deal offered.
Because it was a truly stupid thing to say. She's basically putting forward the idea of leaving with no deal as a serious alternative option that we're considering. The problem with that, is that leaving with no deal would be outrageously destructive. First of all it would leave around 1.5m Brits currently in the EU, and 3.5m Europeans living in the UK completely fecked. We'd have no legal justification for our residence, employment etc etc. This isn't some fantasy, once we leave the EU anyone who doesn't already have permanant residency (and that takes 5 years generally) would basically have to go home unless a deal is made. Funnily enough the idea of millions of people being driven out of their jobs and homes is not particularly attractive, especially for those of us who would be directly effected.
Secondly there's the small matter of trade. Without a deal, suddenly there are not only tariffs on everything, but also customs inspections. We don't have anything like the infrastucture to deal with customs inspections on the volume of trade we do with Europe, not even close. So you'd be looking at months of endless queue's in and out of the country, with businesses across the UK crawling to a standstill because the endless list of parts and supplies they buy from the continent aren't arriving on time.
Oh and its not just one way, all the things we sell to Europe are subject to EU regulation. Which suddenly we're not going to be a part of anymore. So instead of our goods and services just being waved through because we're part of the same regulatory frameworks, suddenly we're going to have to prove that our goods and services comply with EU standards.
It's an almost unimaginable horror show scenario, that would drive the UK to its knees. The idea that the ridiculous robot in Downing Street and her merry band of clowns and feckwits are actually considering it as an option is beyond insane.
Technically though she's right. A bad deal (for instance insisting every British citizen go and kill themselves) would indeed be better than no deal. The idea that anything she would potentially negotiate will be worse though, is farcical.
I disagree to that. Irrespective of the size of one country you can't sound desperate when negotiating else you'll risked being runned down. And tbf the UK is not an insignificant country either.
The big mistake was
a- Not having any plan whatsoever
b- aiming way higher then the country can actually achieve and taking decisions before you actually speak with the negotiators (ie the UK is leaving the single market, its leaving the ECJ, its will control freedom of movement etc)
c- ignoring what the EU negotiators are saying and in some ways (ex Farage) openly insulting them
After the Brexit result, the UK should have got their shit together and they should have come out with a solid and realistic plan of action. There should be no more posturing, no more threats and definately no more populist cut and paste quotes that may sound popular in the UK but are meant to irk the very people you'll soon be negotiating with.
Ken you are going into meltdown here.
The EU have proposed a three year transition deal specifically to smooth the transition in customs practices. Any chaos is bad news for the EU too.
I would bet my house that we don't see the chaos you foretell.
Look, there's a big difference between sounding desperate and sounding insane. The right thing to say was what absolutely everyone expected her to say: "We'll ensure that our friendships and close ties with Europe continue in the future from outside the EU, but we'll ensure that we put the interests of Britain first in the forthcoming negotiations. Never the less, we firmly believe we can find a deal that is beneficial to all parties".
Bear in mind that most politicians were Remain, and the EU was very attracted to the idea that this was a populist temper tantrum that over time could be undone. The wisest negotiating strategy would have been to use that wish to get a decent deal that didn't drive the UK public completely away from the EU ideals, but at the same time left them worse off than they are now (which an inevitable outcome of Brexit anyway). Instead she's put out there the idea that we could follow the most suicidal, nonsensical path possible, while insulting our European partners and convincing half the country that 'no deal' is a perfectly reasonable option.
So what you're saying is that a deal is actually better than no deal? Because if you read my post again, I was talking about the outcome of no deal.
Do you think that the EU negotiators are that nieve that they would not know she has no choice short of crushing her own country but to make a deal with them? They know all the angles especially the bleeding obvious. They have the upper hand and can call her bluff that is a fact.
You seem to take political and negotiating rhetoric as truth when it is simply posturing from both sides.
I'm certain a transition deal similar to the one outlined below will happen.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexi...ainer-theresa-may-article-50-2017-4?r=US&IR=T
You don't go into negotiations saying you'll burn your own house down if you don't get a good deal. Not if you want to enter negotiations with even a shred of credibility. This idea that 'looking tough' is how negotiations should work is a complete fantasy. The smoothest and most profitable negotiations start with goodwill, include compromise and mutual understanding and involve parties who will protect their interests but also look for ways to help the interests of both parties. The stuff we're seeing out of Downing Street and from David Davis sound like a teenager has watched Wolf of Wall St, put on their dad's suit and gone in to 'make some business happen'.
It's fecking embarrasing quite frankly.
That's something no one really believed or cared about in the first place. The UK had never really cultivated any interest in building allies within the EU. Quite the contrary, they spent their time within the EU insulting MEPs or/and accusing the EU of everything.
Those who were traditionally pro UK (Malta, Holland etc) were shocked with the UK calling for a referendum on Brexit. They considered it as a catfight between the Tory party that got out of hand and a betrayal towards them and their combined interest. Once Brexit was won, these countries (now a minority) were quick to build alliances with others knowing that the UK won't be there for long.
In my opinion, the UK should have had the decency to start negotiations with a plan in mind and sufficient backup at home to implement it. The EU might not be the most flexible thing around but it does offer alot of different deals (EU Membership, EEA membership, Customs unions, Swiss like bilaterial agreements, a CETA like trade deal etc) which were tried and tested and were relatively easy for both parties to implement. Instead the UK went for a bold and new relationship (the EU calls it cherry picking), no one can really comprehend and which is heavily stacked towards the junior partner. That's a bit of a problem since it gave space for individual countries to come out with their own list that they want implemented. Its very difficult to come out with a deal which make 28 countries happy.
i don't really dis-agree to much with your points, but i still think having ago at her for saying we won't just accpet any deal, when saying that her would make her look even weaker then we are..... i dunno just seems weird, their are so many things to attack May and our policy over Brexit for, having a go at her for saying im not gonna just take any deal seems odd to me and i like i say im not a may supporter at all.
No one in Europe knows exactly what the UK is brewing up. Maybe the UK was planning to join NAFTA or it could build an economy which was similar to Singapore. Europe might think that its a crazy thing to do. There again, the UK is known to venture into new territories, sometimes of which it turned quite well for them (ie colonialism for example)
My point is that the UK should have never activated article 50 without a plan and without any solid assurances that that their plan can and will work + it will be supported by both the majority of stakeholders within and outside the UK. Article 50 is stacked heavily against the leaver. There's no space for trial and error.
Let her explain to the electorate what leaving with no deal actually means , actually tell the truth. She can't and she won't because the reality is too scary for the UK
a fair point, though im sure a large portion wouldn't really understand it, myself possibly included.
so you think May when pressed what she will do if the EU doesn't offer a fair deal should just say we will take whatever they offer as we need to?
Isn't Amazing that this is even a reality. If I told you a year ago that we would leave the EU with no exit strategy or plan or ANYTHING you would have laughed me off the forum as a nutter
A very good point!
it is mental that we activated article 50 and then called a general election......... surely it should have been the other way around.
You've seen the idiot in charge, right? Looks a bit like Cruella, tough on the branding of seasonal children's activities, flexible on selling bombs to the Saudis?
Negotiations cannot start in earnest until the late summer/early autumn due to French elections, the July summer break for EU officials and the German elections. The UK general election doesn't make any great difference.
Or we could have someone who is genuinely clueless in charge who wanted to invoke Article 50 the day after the referendum. Know anyone like that?
still mental, even by her standards, she basically spends 8 months getting ready to be at the stage where she thinks she is ready to to activate article 50 then... then calls a general election becos she has high opinion polls, even though she said she wouldn't.......... nuts!
Did I miss his calls for a general election 6 weeks later? Shame if so.
Isn't Amazing that this is even a reality. If I told you a year ago that we would leave the EU with no exit strategy or plan or ANYTHING you would have laughed me off the forum as a nutter
I love this country, I seriously do. I think that the UK has the best education in the world and London feels like the centre of the world. The city is absolutely stunning when sunny and it gives the impression that anything is possible in here.
However, I was shocked how ignorant people are about EU matters. These posturing and these strong words may work in Westminster but will be interpreted as threats and insults in Europe. I noticed it the same reaction in Europe (and also Malta) where the UK citizens would go very hard in their criticism (which is normal here) on society as a whole only to feel shocked when they are told that 'if they don't like it' they can always go back were they came from if they don't like it. Many countries take things personal and are insulted by certain comments made. Take Farage for example. You don't say an Italian that the European parliament (whose got an Italian guy as chair) acts like the Mafia. That's extremely insulting.
Irrespective of how strong or weak the UK hand is, its almost impossible for it to get a good deal unless it learns how Europe works. The UK must also understand that the EU can never give the UK a deal that is better off then the one it already has. I mean, seriously, would you give Scotland a better deal to the one it has if it decides to leave the union?
Isn't Amazing that this is even a reality. If I told you a year ago that we would leave the EU with no exit strategy or plan or ANYTHING you would have laughed me off the forum as a nutter
Not exactly correct, we'd have called you Nigel.
Yes it will be highly complex, and probably no-one exists who would know all the implications. But the basics can be explained to a degree but every time someone tries to explain either they are accused of scaremongering or "we've had enough of experts". They should sit down and discuss the best outcome for both sides but the EU have more clout than the UK so inevitably the UK will not end up with as good a deal as they have at present.
I still think so too. At the end of the day it's in the best interests of the EU and (in particular) the UK to reach a deal.
It's just a shame that we have to endure wankers like May & Junker comming out with all this bullshit. It's also a shame to have the endure the ignorance of the British public towards the EU and the continent.
course it does, why didnt the UK activate article 50 the day after the referendum, becuase we where not in anyway a position to do it, May spent 8 months or so take her time to work out the direction she wants to go with Brexit, i may not think she has a good plan or much of a plan at all, but i at least give her credit for not rushing into it, she then after much legal wrangling, activates article 50, then after she said she wouldn't she calls a general election....... this should have happened last year, all parties putting their opinions as to the way forward, people vote then the party who won could have spent the next 6 months to a year getting organised with a clear plan, plus back up plans before activating article 50.
What may is doing now is playing politics exactly what she accused them SMP of doing, take away who you support from the matter, take away what your position is on Brexit, should a country be thinking about changing government just before the biggest negotiations since then end of WW2 start?