Even a hard Brexit won't happen until 2019 at the earliest. If Brexit features in the German elections at all it will be in the "We're going to do this to the UK", "Yeah, well, we'll do this" mould.So you are getting a very Hard Brexit, imo. Germany can't afford a soft deal, as they have a very important election in september.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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I am probably getting the wrong end of the stick here, but if we give reduced or no tax for firms to trade with us or operate here, then who pays the taxes to make our services run?
Correct
Nobody. In such a scenario, they don't run.
Even entering into the most basic negotiation you don't have the answers from day 1, exactly why it will take years not days.
Rule 1 of negotiation you don't reveal all on day 1, by it's very nature you can't reveal your strategy.
The consumers.
I was hoping you were going to say it would come from Tory party funds.
So I was actually holding on tight to the right end of the stick?
Wonder which lot will be the first to moan when cost of living rockets and hospitals are even worse than now?
But that's not good enough. You don't need to have the exact answers, because economies and political situations change and develop, but you need to have something. Even a vague idea. What is a general government target for immigration, for example, since we will now have control of our borders? This isn't hard. Not at all. I'm not even asking for an exact time or date as to when figures will be reached...just a vague, general description of what numbers the UK government want to reduce EU and non-EU migration to, and a rough detailing of the system which would be used to implement this?
This is something that should be done before Article 50. Same with economic plans...because right now we have no idea as to whether this is likely to result in tax decreases or not, and what the potential impact upon public services will be. Again, we have no indication that has been consistently given which informs us as to how the government intend to deal with the impact of leaving the single market.
I'd at least have an inkling of faith if it was a competent government who know what they're doing...but this one failed to provide any provisional plan beforehand, Remainers insistent they'd win despite polls swinging either way, and Leavers with no actual vision as to what a post-Brexit British society would look like, because half of them are UKIP supporters or hardline Tories who'd want to leave the EU no matter what, and the other half just backed it to advance their own political positions in the Tory party.
Told you it is a "lose-lose situation".
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-am-sonntag-uk-tax-haven-europe-a7527961.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-am-sonntag-uk-tax-haven-europe-a7527961.html
Yeah, like Cheesy said if there is less money for certain services the state will either reduce their budgets or create more debt. In both cases the consumer will pay either by purchasing those services from the private sector or by at some point paying the debts created by the state if he decides to still finance those services.
Frightening, isn't it. As someone said, holding a gun to one's own head to threaten the EU.
Totally disagree, you don't give away your position pre negotiation, it's a unique position, UK may hardball several aspects of the negotiation to the media. The crudest of all being the fate of EU citizens currently residing in the UK, whatever the intention, you're not going to concede this on day 1. Let's agree to disagree, and we'll wrap up the conversation in 1.5-2yrs time.
The pound started rising last night, now up 3% on the dollar in 24hrs. I'm guessing that's because the markets got wind of the new inflation figure with likely future interest rates, rather than May's speech, but I'm not too sure. @Jippy will know?
Don't suppose it's profit taking from people who made money on the recent plunge? Currency rates are a mind-feck. Be interested to hear from someone who understands this.
Combination of deal being put to the Houses and Trump's imminent incoming
They're certainly a lot less predictable than the 'experts' crack on. Most people were expecting May to announce hard brexit followed by a plunge in the pound. Maybe that had already been factored in during the last few days. I was going to take profits myself after the plunge, the plunge that didn't happen of course!
The main details of her talk have been out for a few days, though. So I guess there wasn't much to react to in today's news.
Yeah, but I didn't expect the pound to go up! I still reckon it's the inflation figure and likelihood of interest rate rises making the pound more attractive, relatively. Not Trump etc, it rose against the euro as well.
Yeah, I'm sure you're right. I'm about to switch mortgage so thanks for the heads up on the inflation figure. 5-year fixed it is!
My biggest concern is that constitutional issues so fundamental to our future as a country, with effects that will last decades, should be pursued on a cross party basis. The reason being that the tories won't be in power for ever (please tell me they won't) and we can't have each new government looking to renegotiate whatever settlement and trading arrangement we reach with Europe. The government should be looking to build a consensus around some sort of compromise middle-ground Brexit, which most vaguely centrist politicians feel they can govern under in the future.
It's not a one-way street. Only a few days ago, Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator, talked in private about the necessity of a 'special arrangement' whereby Europe would be granted access to the City of London. There are fears in Europe that, among other negative consequence, the loss of such access would increase the cost of sovereign borrowing and imperil the fragile economies of countries like Italy and Portugal.
The Euro rose against the USD as well
Yeah it did, by 1.02% on the site I'm looking at, but £ against $ was 3.11%, so I suppose you could say 1.02 of the 3.11 was a 'US factor'?
And what about if some banks decided to move in Europe?
That's why I said a combination of the deal being put to the Houses plus the added part of Trump.
Next will be the Supreme Court decision.
Don't see interest rates changes at least not for a while yet
Could be then Paul, it's as good a theory as mine anyway.
Could be then Paul, it's as good a theory as mine anyway.
The way the world is at the moment, anything could happen
There are a million what ifs. As of now, the tough talking Mr Barnier, quoted with such approval in this thread in the past, doesn't expect the center of gravity of European finance to switch to Frankfurt, Dublin or anywhere else.
BBC implied the rise was due to May mentioning that the Government would need to approve the Brexit deal (and therefore there's a chance Brexit would happen).
For what it's worth, every time I see fecking Johnson on TV it makes me want to hurl something at the television. But then I remember that I shouldn't break the TV given the financial implications of the future.
I hate this Government.
They wanted her to speak, and then realised she has nothing much to say, instead only really getting by on one-liners that are devoid of any real substance. There's no irony, really, just the realisation about how she isn't a good Prime Minister.
Julia Hartley-Brewer on Newsnight just now was essentially saying that voices opposing any of this are inherently undemocratic 
Julia Hartley-Brewer on Newsnight just now was essentially saying that voices opposing any of this are inherently undemocratic
"Idiot says something idotic"
40 years in the wilderness. Sounds about right.
Been a bit of a long night but will add comment I got later. Arduous tube journey- came to out east. Not sure what to make of a night out with a colleague- tit leaning on hand etc...
On the face of it baffled by sterling rally. Interest rates are lower for yonks despite rising inflation. Economy in a shitstorm.
To be fair Stan, you'd have had more difficulty in the 70's and 80's paying expensive airfares or having to boat it every single time.
Fecking colleagues eh, you should have just punched him in the mouth.
Next time he behaves like that, tell him you're not that kind of girl.