Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Jippy]

I listened to and watched it live on Sky News - and like the majority in this thread have formed the same opinion of the speech - she's going to leave the single market, ECJ, Customs Union and if the EU doesn't give us what we want then we'll make a veiled threat of 'not sure exactly'.

If you lost the City and passporting rights, would you still think Brexit was a good idea?

They're definitely gone by the look of it. Populist desire to harm bankers, without thinking about the wider economic consequences. Great. Can't imagine this having a good effect on my firm, which counts financial advertising as a key source of revenue.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

So trade with Europe is going to cease because we don't to be part of Brussels' flawed political experiment any longer?

Give it a rest Nick, Europe don't think it's flawed even if you do.

The UK knows the rules of trade.

 

[Untied]

Some of the responses here are total hysteria.

In military and intelligence terms, the British PM is a more reliable quantity for Europe's Baltic states than her counterparts in other Western capitals. I fully expect us to reach an agreement for their citizens already present in the country too, which will bolster that connection into the future.

May set out in clear terms the Government's fundamental objectives, and in light of the present EU framework stated that we will not be maintaining our membership of the single market. We will be seeking new agreements and seeking as close relationship as possible (even hinted at a modest financial contribution for common projects).

Perhaps you were listening to a different speech.

Most people in this thread are simply pointing out that May is saying she can have her cake and eat it, but has an incredibly weak negotiating hand.

If the British hand is so strong, why was Cameron unable to get major concessions in his negotiations?

The truth is the only weapons the UK holds in negotiations cause even greater self-harm. May has basically pointed a gun at her own head and then threatened the EU that she'll pull the trigger if they don't give her what she wants.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

So trade with Europe is going to cease because we don't to be part of Brussels' flawed political experiment any longer?

Depends if it attractive doesn't it. If we make it awkward for them to import they might look elsewhere for exports.

 

[Cheesy]

These don't seem like actual, full-out plans at all. It's just a stronger affirmation that we're going to be leaving the single market, as if this was ever a guarantee when Leave won the vote by an extremely narrow margin in an utter joke of a campaign.

Imagine if the reverse had happened - if Remain had won with 51.9%, and Cameron had then taken that as a mandate to begin campaigning for a fully federalised EU, and us adopting the Euro? Leavers would've been hysterical.

How are we going to ensure London retain its status as a financial centre, considering its current position involves heavy cooperation with Europe? How will the border with Northern Ireland be affected, considering Northern Ireland is bordered by an EU state? What will happen to Gibraltar, considering it is an actual part of mainland Europe? Do the government intend to listen at all to Scotland, considering over 60% of us voted to Remain, with every council area voting to Remain? Will our desire to remain within the EU, which would translate to a desire to retain some sort of single market arrangement if we are going to leave the EU, be taken into consideration? Especially considering during the 2014 referendum, we were given assurances, time and time again, by figures from all three primary political parties, that a vote to remain in the UK would not threaten our status in Europe?

Will initiatives/industries which currently rely heavily on EU funding, such as university research, receive full funding? If so, will this have to come out of funding from elsewhere...such as health/education, or another important area? Will funding be cut? If so, which particular areas are going to receive less funding, and what sort of effect is this likely to have upon us? Additionally on a similar subject, what will happen to EU-related travel initiatives for university students who do a semester/year abroad? If this is to come to an end, when will that take effect, so that students with future plans can adjust them?

What will be do if Europe takes a particularly hardline stance with us? Will we soften our own stance, or do we believe we will get the deal we want, despite the fact we are asking for perky agreements while desiring to follow none of the EU's regulations? If we believe this, why?

Can the status of EU citizens in the UK be guaranteed? What about vice versa?

What sort of levels of immigration with the EU do the government intend to reduce current levels to, in order to ensure we actually see less immigration considering the action we are taking is being driven by this desire? What levels do we seek to reduce non-EU immigration to? Do the government intend to actually meet this target, or will May half-arse it again like she did in Cameron's administration, while then having the gall to blame problems on immigration despite taking no action herself? How will our reductions in EU migration affect sectors which depend on immigration?

That's what I want to know. Information on all of the above, and more, because what I've listed is probably mostly the basic stuff, is what we should be getting before any actual action is taken in regards to departing from the EU.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

We'll do trade with The Commonwealth, you know them we told to piss off when we joined the EU?

Nigeria are probably the biggest Commonwealth country, which is in financial meltdown, no foreign currency and have banned the import of a lot of products so that they can be produced locally - good luck with that one

 

[Pogue Mahone]

These don't seem like actual, full-out plans at all. It's just a stronger affirmation that we're going to be leaving the single market, as if this was ever a guarantee when Leave won the vote by an extremely narrow margin in an utter joke of a campaign.

Imagine if the reverse had happened - if Remain had won with 51.9%, and Cameron had then taken that as a mandate to begin campaigning for a fully federalised EU, and us adopting the Euro? Leavers would've been hysterical.

How are we going to ensure London retain its status as a financial centre, considering its current position involves heavy cooperation with Europe? How will the border with Northern Ireland be affected, considering Northern Ireland is bordered by an EU state? What will happen to Gibraltar, considering it is an actual part of mainland Europe? Do the government intend to listen at all to Scotland, considering over 60% of us voted to Remain, with every council area voting to Remain? Will our desire to remain within the EU, which would translate to a desire to retain some sort of single market arrangement if we are going to leave the EU, be taken into consideration? Especially considering during the 2014 referendum, we were given assurances, time and time again, by figures from all three primary political parties, that a vote to remain in the UK would not threaten our status in Europe?

Will initiatives/industries which currently rely heavily on EU funding, such as university research, receive full funding? If so, will this have to come out of funding from elsewhere...such as health/education, or another important area? Will funding be cut? If so, which particular areas are going to receive less funding, and what sort of effect is this likely to have upon us? Additionally on a similar subject, what will happen to EU-related travel initiatives for university students who do a semester/year abroad? If this is to come to an end, when will that take effect, so that students with future plans can adjust them?

What will be do if Europe takes a particularly hardline stance with us? Will we soften our own stance, or do we believe we will get the deal we want, despite the fact we are asking for perky agreements while desiring to follow none of the EU's regulations? If we believe this, why?

Can the status of EU citizens in the UK be guaranteed? What about vice versa?

What sort of levels of immigration with the EU do the government intend to reduce current levels to, in order to ensure we actually see less immigration considering the action we are taking is being driven by this desire? What levels do we seek to reduce non-EU immigration to? Do the government intend to actually meet this target, or will May half-arse it again like she did in Cameron's administration, while then having the gall to blame problems on immigration despite taking no action herself? How will our reductions in EU migration affect sectors which depend on immigration?

That's what I want to know. Information on all of the above, and more, because what I've listed is probably mostly the basic stuff, is what we should be getting before any actual action is taken in regards to departing from the EU.

Good post with lots of big and important questions. We're now 6 months after the referendum and no closer to knowing the answers to any of them. Which is remarkable, does not bode well for impending negotiations and a clear reflection of the dithering incompetents tasked with sorting out the shit-storm you've been plunged into. Of your own volition.

 

[Red Defence]

So trade with Europe is going to cease because we don't to be part of Brussels' flawed political experiment any longer?

No it isn't.

Europe knows that just as we know that, whatever little tantrums the EU may choose to exhibit next.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

So trade with Europe is going to cease because we don't to be part of Brussels' flawed political experiment any longer?

Ok then. Thrilled that you're so skilled at reading between the lines that you found some trade agreements hidden there in between them.

 

[jackofalltrades]

The same would be true if there was an internal migration of the same numbers. In the face of increased demand central and local government should be providing more funds from the taxes these people pay to fund services.

Exactly.

 

[Mozza]

Exactly.

So you agree this is a failure of Government and not migration?

 

[Untied]

How will the border with Northern Ireland be affected, considering Northern Ireland is bordered by an EU state?

To very briefly side with @Nick 0208 Ldn the Irish border stuff is hysteria for the moment. Ireland isn't in Shengen so you cannot travel passport free from e.g. Eastern Europe to Ireland to reach an open border with the UK.

The main threat is that May has decided to listen to almost every whim of the right-wing press and the far-right of her party. You can picture the Mail and The Sun turning the open Irish border into a political issue, even though it is no more of a threat to immigration than tourists overstaying their visas.

The second is that it will require customs controls, which means the border has to become monitored to some degree, but for goods not people.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

I listened to and watched it live on Sky News - and like the majority in this thread have formed the same opinion of the speech - she's going to leave the single market, ECJ, Customs Union and if the EU doesn't give us what we want then we'll make a veiled threat of 'not sure exactly'.

If you lost the City and passporting rights, would you still think Brexit was a good idea?

She's actually attempting to honour the vote, you mean. And is also respecting the constraints of the EU's orthodoxy on key issues.

The City isn't going to disappear, although there will be uncertainty and some job losses. There is more at stake here than the financial sector, however, and Brexit represent just the opportunity for a broader restructuring of the national economy. Years down the line, people will look back and laugh and the contentment we had with the status quo.

 

[Adebesi]

The big military powers will always be Russia, China and the US and the big prize remains in the ME were the oil is. We've already seen how Boris was silenced when he dared speaking badly about Saudi Arabia which is pro US and pro UK.

If Russia/China can exploit this brainfart moment from the US to bring Europe closer to them then they will, especially Russia who shares borders with the same countries the US likes to cause problem in. That will in turn strengthen Iran's hand against Saudi Arabia a win win for Russia.

Don't take me wrong, I agree with most you're saying. Its time the EU gets its act together which include an EU army and a global response to terrorism. It will have to whether it likes it or not (unless it plans to be Trump's bitch). However we're heading to a cold war and in any unstable period enemies can quickly become friends and viceversa. Now the last time the US won the cold war it was because the US had more friends then Russia and China. What would happen if Trump pisses Europe enough for it to search a new bed to sleep in (China? Russia?)

OK well that is one interpretation, I know a few economists that would argue the quality of the underlying financial system had a role to play as well....

Anyway this is getting off track so let's not debate it here.

 

[Adebesi]

France has a larger nuclear arsenal, Germany has better intelligence.

The UK will only harm itself and be massively dependent on the US if it chooses to go down that road.

Definitely. I think its pretty clear that Brexit leaves the UK completely dependent on the US, which we are already seeing with the mania around the possibility of a trade deal. We will see how the UK bends over for every demand the US makes around watering down consumer protections, environmental considerations etc.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

She's actually attempting to honour the vote, you mean. And is also respecting the constraints of the EU's orthodoxy on key issues.

The City isn't going to disappear, although there will be uncertainty and some job losses. There is more at stake here than the financial sector, however, and Brexit represent just the opportunity for a broader restructuring of the national economy. Years down the line, people will look back and laugh and the contentment we had with the status quo.

Or marvel at the staggering act of stupidity which wrecked an era of relative peace and prosperity...

 

[DomesticTadpole]

Nigeria are probably the biggest Commonwealth country, which is in financial meltdown, no foreign currency and have banned the import of a lot of products so that they can be produced locally - good luck with that one

I know exactly. The Commonwealth loves the UK. Not and it serves us right.

 

[Cheesy]

To very briefly side with @Nick 0208 Ldn the Irish border stuff is hysteria for the moment. Ireland isn't in Shengen so you cannot travel passport free from e.g. Eastern Europe to Ireland to reach an open border with the UK.

The main threat is that May has decided to listen to almost every whim of the right-wing press and the far-right of her party. You can picture the Mail and The Sun turning the open Irish border into a political issue, even though it is no more of a threat to immigration than tourists overstaying their visas.

The second is that it will require customs controls, which means the border has to become monitored to some degree, but for goods not people.

That's fair enough, but surely us intending to end free movement with the EU will affect the Northern Irish border with Ireland in some way? And even if Brexit doesn't have an effect...the political consequences are worth considering. As we've often seen in the past year, the objective truth is often shunned in modern news/politics, and if Sinn Fein can capitalised on uncertainty over Brexit, whether warranted or not, then it could potentially increase their standing in the upcoming elections, which would have major consequences in its own right.

 

[Kentonio]

She's actually attempting to honour the vote, you mean. And is also respecting the constraints of the EU's orthodoxy on key issues.

The City isn't going to disappear, although there will be uncertainty and some job losses. There is more at stake here than the financial sector, however, and Brexit represent just the opportunity for a broader restructuring of the national economy. Years down the line, people will look back and laugh and the contentment we had with the status quo.

Honour the vote by doing the same thing that 6 months ago she described as a 'disaster'?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Definitely. I think its pretty clear that Brexit leaves the UK completely dependent on the US, which we are already seeing with the mania around the possibility of a trade deal. We will see how the UK bends over for every demand the US makes around watering down consumer protections, environmental considerations etc.

Despite Trump's buddying up with oikes like Farage and Gove I could not imagine a worse time in history to be aligning your future prosperity with the US, seeing as its going to be run by someone who is so clearly incompetent as a leader.

 

[Untied]

Brexiters start to sound a lot like Trump:

Brexit is going to wonderful. A beautiful thing. And we'll have all these trade deals. We'll trade with everyone. People will look back and laugh. It's going to be an amazing thing. We're going to make Britain great again.

 

[Cheesy]

Honour the vote by doing the same thing that 6 months ago she described as a 'disaster'?

Not to mention it's hardly 'honouring the vote' when the intention to leave the single market fully was never a guarantee in any way, shape or form. There is no cast iron assurance which can be given which confirms that had Brexit been a vote on leaving the EU and the single market, it would have passed.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

Brexiters start to sound a lot like Trump:

Brexit is going to wonderful. A beautiful thing. And we'll have all these trade deals. We'll trade with everyone. People will look back and laugh. It's going to be an amazing thing. We're going to make Britain great again.

Yep. Exactly right. Let's see how long it takes Donald to make the US great again without pissing off the rest of the world, apart from us of course.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

She's actually attempting to honour the vote, you mean. And is also respecting the constraints of the EU's orthodoxy on key issues.

The City isn't going to disappear, although there will be uncertainty and some job losses. There is more at stake here than the financial sector, however, and Brexit represent just the opportunity for a broader restructuring of the national economy. Years down the line, people will look back and laugh and the contentment we had with the status quo.

As I said, her speech panders to those who voted to Leave. Where she sees unity, it must be in her dreams. The divisions will get wider the more bad things happen to the UK.

If she does what she says in her speech, the City could very well disappear, and this is the most important stake for the UK, far more important than some people realise, far more important than paying or not paying a 10% tariff on goods.
She's gambling with the Uk's future and has little chance of pulling off what she hopes to achieve

 

[cyberman]

Despite Trump's buddying up with oikes like Farage and Gove I could not imagine a worse time in history to be aligning your future prosperity with the US, seeing as its going to be run by someone who is so clearly incompetent as a leader.

When Trump is gone in 4 years there will be a backlash against Britain if Adolf makes a deal that doesn't have to be made.
Any leeway given to Britain due to Trump allying himself with his facist pals will be ripped apart imo.

 

[Adebesi]

Despite Trump's buddying up with oikes like Farage and Gove I could not imagine a worse time in history to be aligning the future prosperity of the US, seeing as its going to be led by someone who is so clearly incompetent as a leader.

Goes back to another of @DomesticTadpole's questions about what happens when Trump is kicked out of office after his first term, or even sooner if he is called out for the shameless looting of the country that is surely coming?

The thing is we have to remember the UK is not going through this in isolation, everything is changing so fast. Who knows what will be happening with the EU in 12 months after votes in France, Italy, the Netherlands and elsewhere. Another US President might be more pro EU but he wont be able to turn back time, and it is hard to envisage (but not impossible) this person being outright hostile to the UK. I think the US, with or without Trump, will always urge all sides to be constructive.

I think Brexit has looked a lot like Trump for some time now, that's why the two get conflated so often.

 

[Untied]

That's fair enough, but surely us intending to end free movement with the EU will affect the Northern Irish border with Ireland in some way? And even if Brexit doesn't have an effect...the political consequences are worth considering. As we've often seen in the past year, the objective truth is often shunned in modern news/politics, and if Sinn Fein can capitalised on uncertainty over Brexit, whether warranted or not, then it could potentially increase their standing in the upcoming elections, which would have major consequences in its own right.

I think some of the hysteria comes from people at large confusing freedom of movement with border controls. Ending freedom of movement means people cannot live/work/access benefits and public services in the UK, it does not mean that you have to prevent people physically entering the country. e.g. If you cannot get a NI number you cannot legally work.

But as you say (and the point I was making with my reference to May's right-wing influences) she could be dragged politically into turning it into a hard border. And customs checks will be a slippery first step in that direction.

 

[Unmutual]

Sad day if you're a remainer like me. However, what's become apparent to me in the last months is the fairly obvious truth that there's no version of soft Brexit that's better than actually being a member of the EU. Which means the only choices you can logically argue for are either staying in the EU, or making that leap into the dark and hoping that it works out as well as the the Leavers claim it will.

I suspect May's realised this, which is why she's gone all in.

 

[Adebesi]

She's actually attempting to honour the vote, you mean. And is also respecting the constraints of the EU's orthodoxy on key issues.

The City isn't going to disappear, although there will be uncertainty and some job losses. There is more at stake here than the financial sector, however, and Brexit represent just the opportunity for a broader restructuring of the national economy. Years down the line, people will look back and laugh and the contentment we had with the status quo.

ALways find it entertaining when Brexiters try to spin the decline of London as a financial centre as a desirable rebalancing of the economy. The preferable way to do that would of course be to boost other sectors, not decimate the most successful one we have.

 

[jackofalltrades]

So you agree this is a failure of Government and not migration?

Yes, that was the point of my original post about the MIF. What I wanted to say was that migration can cause problems but it's the government's responsibilty to deal with these, which Labour did badly but the Tories did worse.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Goes back to another of @DomesticTadpole's questions about what happens when Trump is kicked out of office after his first term, or even sooner if he is called out for the shameless looting of the country that is surely coming?

The thing is we have to remember the UK is not going through this in isolation, everything is changing so fast. Who knows what will be happening with the EU in 12 months after votes in France, Italy, the Netherlands and elsewhere. Another US President might be more pro EU but he wont be able to turn back time, and it is hard to envisage (but not impossible) this person being outright hostile to the UK. I think the US, with or without Trump, will always urge all sides to be constructive.

I think Brexit has looked a lot like Trump for some time now, that's why the two get conflated so often.

Yeah, agreed. The whole world has been plunged into uncertainty and the goal posts seem to be moving all the time. Brexit and Trump are both a huge part of this and, as people keep saying, there are similar motivations behind a big chunk of both electorates. Desperate people who would take literally anything over a continuation of the status quo. I have a lot of sympathy with that but I think history will look upon this chain of events as a tragedy. Wealthy countries with excellent standards of living accelerating their demise because hucksters took advantage of people who thought they had nothing to lose. I suspect they'll find out they had a lot more to lose than they thought...

 

[jackofalltrades]

"Where there is discord, may we bring harmony." St Francis, Thatcher and now May

 

[Adebesi]

Yeah, agreed. The whole world has been plunged into uncertainty and the goal posts seem to be moving all the time. Brexit and Trump are both a huge part of this and, as people keep saying, there are similar motivations behind a big chunk of both electorates. Desperate people who would take literally anything over a continuation of the status quo. I have a lot of sympathy with that but I think history will look upon this chain of events as a tragedy. Wealthy countries with excellent standards of living accelerating their demise because hucksters took advantage of people who thought they had nothing to lose. I suspect they'll find out they had a lot more to lose than they thought...

Couldnt agree more. But obviously hope Im wrong and in 10 years we look back and think how great it was that we left the EU and forced the institution to modernise and improve itself.

 

[berbatrick]

I think she is taking the only possible option she has: a tax war if the EU tries to hold its ground on rules.

 

[MTF]

Despite Trump's buddying up with oikes like Farage and Gove I could not imagine a worse time in history to be aligning your future prosperity with the US, seeing as its going to be run by someone who is so clearly incompetent as a leader.

And also so inclined to treat relationships on a purely transactional, and not constructive basis.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

Couldnt agree more. But obviously hope Im wrong and in 10 years we look back and think how great it was that we left the EU and forced the institution to modernise and improve itself.

Wonder what will happen if other countries decide to leave the EU? Not sure it will happen until they see what impact it has on us. If things go well it might make a few others take the plunge. If it is a disaster then the EU will be stronger.

 

[Adebesi]

Wonder what will happen if other countries decide to leave the EU? Not sure it will happen until they see what impact it has on us. If things go well it might make a few others take the plunge. If it is a disaster then the EU will be stronger.

I dont think things will develop as "rationally" as that, by which I mean it wont be a case of wait and see, then make an informed decision. It will be populists in other countries whipping up anger about immigrants, about austerity (and then blame wasteful EU), about unemployment etc. What happens with the EU will depend on how successful anti-EU populists are, not informed and reasoned observations about what happens to us. Particularly as it wont wait around to see what happens with us.

I think things will come to a head personally, I dont know if the EU will collapse but it will either have to reform in a big way or else it will. The whole freedom of movement thing is not only an issue here, every time a bomb goes off in Paris it feeds the narrative that Germany has invited terrorists into Europe and nobody can keep tabs on them. So actually, while the UK ultimately left because the EU wouldnt give concessions on free movement, I think the EU will end or at least qualify free movement. Not to keep us in, but to ensure nobody else leaves.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

I dont think things will develop as "rationally" as that, by which I mean it wont be a case of wait and see, then make an informed decision. It will be populists in other countries whipping up anger about immigrants, about austerity (and then blame wasteful EU), about unemployment etc. What happens with the EU will depend on how successful anti-EU populists are, not informed and reasoned observations about what happens to us. Particularly as it wont wait around to see what happens with us.

I think things will come to a head personally, I dont know if the EU will collapse but it will either have to reform in a big way or else it will. The whole freedom of movement thing is not only an issue here, every time a bomb goes off in Paris it feeds the narrative that Germany has invited terrorists into Europe and nobody can keep tabs on them. So actually, while the UK ultimately left because the EU wouldnt give concessions on free movement, I think the EU will end or at least qualify free movement. Not to keep us in, but to ensure nobody else leaves.

The freedom of movement has become a problem because the EU has got too big. Although it was likely designed that way to provide loads of cheap labour, which is wrong in itself.

 

[Adebesi]

The freedom of movement has become a problem because the EU has got too big. Although it was likely designed that way to provide loads of cheap labour, which is wrong in itself.

And which country pushed hardest for EU enlargement? Oh yes it was the UK!

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The freedom of movement has become a problem because the EU has got too big. Although it was likely designed that way to provide loads of cheap labour, which is wrong in itself.

Not sure how you work that one out.