Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Adisa said:
I admit. Back in 2012 and markets were very jumpy.
I know German banks have a lot of exposure to the Greece but I wasn't aware that Italian banks had the same.
My belief is that Greece is either going to default at some point or a huge chunk written off. It simply can't pay it back. The reforms and terms of the bailout are moving at snails pace. So that solace isn't even there.
But they are forecasting decent growth for next year. >2.5% I think. But it's not something another election can't ruin.
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It clearly needs a managed programme of debt write-offs. Whether it will happen is anyone's guess. Sounds like the Troika talks aren't going smoothly right now.
 
fcbforever said:
1.: EU budget =/= Eurozone bailout programs. You are a net payer, but it still isn't what was reffered to, nobody denies GB was a net payer, although one playing under different rules then everyone else. But this money IS NOT used in any bailout programs, those are exclusive to Eurozone countries!

2.: As you may have noticed, quite a few people in Germany would have loved to just send Greece into bankrupty. Including me. Let those feckers sort out their mess themselves. I'm still convinced it would have been better to just let them crash in the long run, would have saved a lot of money and might have scared the Italians enough so they would've stopped being stupid.
And sorry to say, but I did know. Especially the Irish case is one I studied quite extensively, since it very well shows that Austerity can work under the right circumstances. Tbh, my knowledge is probably vastly superior to yours. It's a case study that is very common in political science atm. This will now relate to your point 3, because the Irish crisis wasn't one of currency, and no downrating of their currency would have ever saved them, the debt was just way too big. The Irish crisis was a combined crisis of the banking and real estate, which was caused by lax Irish regulations. I know you will use that to prove your "point" as long as you breathe, but in the context mentioned it is still wrong that GB participated in any of the Eurozone bailout programs, because it did not. Neither in the Greek, the Portuguese or the Irish bailout, the British paid one penny.
They decided to lend their neighbour money in a time of need, voluntarily. Please explain to me how the EU is responsible for that. Because it just isn't. If you are against lending money to states in crisis, you should probably protest the IMF, because GB has paid more money into that one in the past decade than it paid into any bailout programs in Europe.
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Like I say you can't have your own facts.

The UK has provided a total of €6.5bn (£5bn) via the EU for two bailouts: €3bn for Ireland in November 2010 and €3.5bn for Portugal in May 2011. According to the BBC.

Also don't let's try and pretend the EU didn't try to have the UK contribute to the Greek bailout because it did and was blocked from doing so by the UK govt in the latter rounds at least. (I'm not sure if the UK did contribute in the first instance or not)

On the IMF I don't mind the UK contributing to the IMF because it helps countries in dire need and gets its money back. It also champions debt write off for bond holders to a level where the country loaning the money can actual afford to pay. The EU on the other hand has repeatedly demanded no debt write off for Greece and the IMF has now reported on that bailout. You should look it up in the Greek bailout thread. The EU is going to struggle to loan more money to Greece because the IMF has to be in on any deal to do so and it isn't happy with what was done last time and won't partake in any future bailout without debt write off.
 
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Stanley Road said:
Problem i have with MFI is Lagarde, how this non tax paying cnut had the front to call greeks tax shy defies belief
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It's a woman who said that if people couldn't pay for petrol, they could still ride bikes...
 
Drifter said:
London banks 'in advanced stages' of shifting operations to Paris

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/brexit-london-banks-advanced-stages-shifting-operations-paris-1595431
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Terrifying. This is the part that matters when we talk about the Brexit decision being irrevocable, it's possible the EU might let us back in some day (unlikely but possible), but if we lose the major financial institutions then they have basically no reason to ever return. The country is going to be considerably poorer in the future.
 
Kentonio said:
Terrifying. This is the part that matters when we talk about the Brexit decision being irrevocable, it's possible the EU might let us back in some day (unlikely but possible), but if we lose the major financial institutions then they have basically no reason to ever return. The country is going to be considerably poorer in the future.
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Oh don't worry. The foreign secretary will make sure to seal new trade deals to replace the old

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...es-saudi-arabia-of-twisting-and-abusing-islam

“That’s why you’ve got the Saudis, Iran, everybody, moving in, and puppeteering and playing proxy wars.”
 
Excellent. Now the UK is Europe's very own tax haven. Proud to serve their corporate overlords.
 
Kentonio said:
Terrifying. This is the part that matters when we talk about the Brexit decision being irrevocable, it's possible the EU might let us back in some day (unlikely but possible), but if we lose the major financial institutions then they have basically no reason to ever return. The country is going to be considerably poorer in the future.
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Rejoining wouldn't be a problem. We'd just have to accept all the conditions, including joining the Euro. Easy-peasy.

Just seen that Terri says the EU will punish us for leaving ! Well, not even an expert could have predicted that months and months ago. Next she'll tell us that they're planning to use it as an opportunity to tempt businesses to other European countries. Banks to Paris and so on.
 
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Just received an email update on the Associate EU Membership issues from Charles Goerens..

Dear Madam or Sir,

Yesterday I decided together with Guy Verhofstadt to withdraw my amendment on Associate EU Citizenship. We realised that this has become a very important issue that cannot await treaty change - as was my intention when I first tabled my amendment - since this might take years.

Yesterday evening, the House of Commons decided by a majority of almost 400 to support Theresa May’s plan to trigger article 50 by the end of March 2017. Hence the prospect that Article 50 will be invoked has become very real indeed.

The European Parliament will define its position on the Brexit agreement through a resolution during spring 2017. This seems to be the best opportunity to give Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt the possibility to enforce the Associate EU Citizenship.

I recognise this might come as a surprise to many of you, but please understand that the abovementioned procedure makes it much more likely for the Associate EU Citizenship to succeed than through an amendment.

Yours sincerely,

Charles Goerens
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Kentonio said:
I don't know, but I was shocked when Guy Verhofstadt supported the idea. Didn't see that coming.
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You shouldn't. A big chunk of THE UK politicians and media would secretly love the EU to fail. However I ensure you that the feeling isn't mutual.
Very few people hate the UK and the EU had done its very best to keep the UK in the union.

However patience is now running low and like most divorces its bound to become nasty. Most European politicians have already enough on their plate and can't keep on accommodating the spoiled kid in the atlantic.
 
devilish said:
You shouldn't. A big chunk of THE UK politicians and media would secretly love the EU to fail. However I ensure you that the feeling isn't mutual.
Very few people hate the UK and the EU had done its very best to keep the UK in the union.

However patience is now running low and like most divorces its bound to become nasty. Most European politicians have already enough on their plate and can't keep on accommodating the spoiled kid in the atlantic.
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How would this be accommodating the UK though? Seems like the appeal to the EU would be that it would be a means to skim off some of the UK's best and help facilitate a brain drain all under the guise of offering an olive branch to the UK.
 
devilish said:
I doubt he'll find plenty of supporters in the EU TBH
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I'm not so sure Dev, it would be a very divisive move in the UK and would allow the EU to go for a much harder Brexit on those who genuinely want out without unnecessarily punishing those of us caught up in the idiocy only by the misfortune of sharing a nationality with the cretins.

At present there's just under £100 a year out of my tax bill that goes to the EU whilst the total UK net contribution's around £8.5bn. If I could maintain an EU passport and free movement status I'd happily stump up £350-500 a year for each of myself, my wife and my daughter and I'm fairly sure there'd be another 20M or so pro EU Brits who would also jump at the chance. Let's face it, a 1 year visa for India or China comes to more than that once you've added in all the processing fees etc while the US is around half that. It would allow you to carry out criminal background checks etc to ensure the undesirables are kept out.

It would mean the EU were not out of pocket with the UK leaving and as they'd be calling in well over the £250M per week in debts the UK has to the EU for many years to come post Brexit they would actually be in profit. You could also charge visa fees to all the non-EU Brits on a country by country basis depending on how troublesome each country sees them.
 
NinjaFletch said:
How would this be accommodating the UK though? Seems like the appeal to the EU would be that it would be a means to skim off some of the UK's best and help facilitate a brain drain all under the guise of offering an olive branch to the UK.
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Of course it does.It gives the UK a way for somehow calm down the 48% remainers (and most leavers who want cherry picking) to still enjoy the benefits of being a EU member despite their country had abandoned Europe. Being an EU citizen is worth alot. No wonder why, even, the fiercest of Brexiters (ie Farage) was spotted in a German embassy just few days after the Brexit referendum.

Unfortunately most British people are caught in such a loop of distrust that they can't possibly acknowledge anything good coming from the EU. If all the remaining 27 members had to bow down to Westminister begging the UK to colonise them and to build back their empire, the Brexiters will probably argue that they are doing that to retain FOM and saddle the UK with its debt.
 
Bury Red said:
I'm not so sure Dev, it would be a very divisive move in the UK and would allow the EU to go for a much harder Brexit on those who genuinely want out without unnecessarily punishing those of us caught up in the idiocy only by the misfortune of sharing a nationality with the cretins.

At present there's just under £100 a year out of my tax bill that goes to the EU whilst the total UK net contribution's around £8.5bn. If I could maintain an EU passport and free movement status I'd happily stump up £350-500 a year for each of myself, my wife and my daughter and I'm fairly sure there'd be another 20M or so pro EU Brits who would also jump at the chance. Let's face it, a 1 year visa for India or China comes to more than that once you've added in all the processing fees etc while the US is around half that. It would allow you to carry out criminal background checks etc to ensure the undesirables are kept out.

It would mean the EU were not out of pocket with the UK leaving and as they'd be calling in well over the £250M per week in debts the UK has to the EU for many years to come post Brexit they would actually be in profit. You could also charge visa fees to all the non-EU Brits on a country by country basis depending on how troublesome each country sees them.
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If you ask me, this proposal comes from the liberal minority and will be shot down as soon as the real talks start. That will happen not by Brexiters but by the Europeans themselves. Its ludicious for many EU countries to be expected to treat the British as equals when the UK had voted to strip their people from being treated as equals in the UK. Can you imagine Spain having to pay for the NHS of millions of UK immigrants while Spanish people will probably not qualify to work in the UK? Can you imagine them having to accept gibraltars to work in Spain while Spanish people can't work in London? No one can possibly accept that!

Regarding the rest, but most Europe do not care what remainers think. All they care is that the UK had voted for Brexit and that a former member whom they had worked so hard to accommodate will soon become competitor. They might show some sympathy with Scotland but make sure they can give a feck about the English.
 
Jippy said:
The guy is a fecking idiot- seriously 'being kind' by staying in the single market? It would be laughable if it wasn't so absolutely tragic.
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TBF you can expect him saying

"Hey we're desperate to be in the single market so please keep us there" can he? He's trying to negotiating a way out of the mess they created and he's becoming increasing aware that the EU isn't in the mood of giving concessions. It can't, its shouldn't and it possibly have bigger thing to worry about then the spoiled kid sitting on the Atlantic asking to cherry pick the deal he wants

I won't be surprised if the 18 months pass and all the UK would get is a 'goodbye' note
 
Dobba said:
Yes, we've made it! Now we can let them off paying shedloads of tax while still subsidising their employees' shit wages to something bordering on liveable. Keep them coming!
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Can tax be collected on behalf of European based company in a non European base?
 
devilish said:
If all the remaining 27 members had to bow down to Westminister begging the UK to colonise them and to build back their empire, the Brexiters will probably argue that they are doing that to retain FOM and saddle the UK with its debt.
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Let's leave Scotland out of this..
 
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