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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Crus the economy into the ground? Are you now refuting the predictions of those experts who suited your purpose just a half year ago? Please do quit the dramatising.

We do now stand a change of buildling something better than the EU is presently destined to become. It shan't be realised in only five months however.
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So you rather believe the man who didn't know that Turkey can't sign a trade deal with the UK as an individual country (because its in the customs union)? Or do you prefer believing that other guy, the Brexit expert, whose main strategy was to sign an deal with individual EU countries only to later learn that that is not possible?

Brexit was voted in because people who should know better, didn't know better and ended up misleading the people. Some didn't even wanted Brexit in the first place. Is it too much to ask for some scrutiny about what's going on? I thought that 'taking control' wasn't translated in giving absolute power to an unelected PM.

You might as well change Theresa May's name to Queen Elizabeth Tudor while at it.
 
ThierryHenry said:
Nick, you're a smart guy. Do you genuinely believe that leaving the single market will not result in certain companies leaving the UK, job losses, and a weakened economy? I don't see any rationale argument for why that wouldn't happen.
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We've not even begun the negotiations yet, so our future interaction with the single market remains unknown. But should that relationship change, and a new trade deal is required, i think we can alleviate some of the impact through a little state intervention (subsidies, enterprise zones, infrastructure investment e.t,c.). We could have remained in the EU and carried on with the structure to the economy which exist currently, although i don't think that would have brought its own trouble in the years ahead.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
We've not even begun the negotiations yet, so our future interaction with the single market remains unknown. But should that relationship change, and a new trade deal is required, i think we can alleviate some of the impact through a little state intervention (subsidies, enterprise zones, infrastructure investment e.t,c.). We could have remained in the EU and carried on with the structure to the economy which exist currently, although i don't think that would have brought its own trouble in the years ahead.
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That's the whole point though. Your entire concept of a better and stronger Britain is based on things that you're hoping to achieve. With the EU at least you know what the deal is in regards to your economy, security, education, etc. It was absolutely mental to risk what you know and replace with a big fecking unknown. That's just illogical. There was no bloody need for this.
 
Mihajlovic said:
That's the whole point though. Your entire concept of a better and stronger Britain is based on things that you're hoping to achieve. With the EU at least you know what the deal is in regards to your economy, security, education, etc. It was absolutely mental to risk what you know and replace with a big fecking unknown. That's just illogical. There was no bloody need for this.
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Other countries around the world are continuing on everyday without being members of such a political union, why not us? Or are they all poverty stricken and i just failed to notice? None of what i spoke is implausible or unrealistic, indeed we have introduced all of them in the past to enhance the economy.

You are also asking me to forego my one chance to influence such events, as referenda are a very rare occurrence in the United Kingdom. Had Remain been the victor, i doubt whether we'd have seen another vote for several decades. The EU is going to become increasingly centralised over time (there existed no practicable route to acceptable reform), and this present experiment has evolved it too fast a pace as it is. Europe would be far better off if it started this exercise of cooperation from scratch.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Other countries around the world are continuing on everyday without being members of such a political union, why not us? Or are they all poverty stricken and i just failed to notice? None of what i spoke is implausible or unrealistic, indeed we have introduced all of them in the past to enhance the economy.

You are also asking me to forego my one chance to influence such events, as referenda are a very rare occurrence in the United Kingdom. Had Remain been the victor, i doubt whether we'd have seen another vote for several decades. The EU is going to become increasingly centralised over time (there existed no practicable route to acceptable reform), and this present experiment has evolved it too fast a pace as it is. Europe would be far better off if it started this exercise of cooperation from scratch.
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Other countries around the world haven't decided over night to abandon all trade agreements and start negotiating from scratch. Those countries continue to operate today precisely because they have spent decades and decades of negotiating and crafting deals which best suit them.

It was mentioned that the UK referendum was about leaving the EU but not about leaving the single market. I can only hope that common sense and good judgement will prevail and instead of Britain seeking trade deals with Australia, Singapore and freaking Mexico, it will rather cough up the membership fee and remain in the market that is literally at their doorstep.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Other countries around the world are continuing on everyday without being members of such a political union, why not us? Or are they all poverty stricken and i just failed to notice? None of what i spoke is implausible or unrealistic, indeed we have introduced all of them in the past to enhance the economy.

You are also asking me to forego my one chance to influence such events, as referenda are a very rare occurrence in the United Kingdom. Had Remain been the victor, i doubt whether we'd have seen another vote for several decades. The EU is going to become increasingly centralised over time (there existed no practicable route to acceptable reform), and this present experiment has evolved it too fast a pace as it is. Europe would be far better off if it started this exercise of cooperation from scratch.
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These other countries haven't been a part of a 600m+ people single market for 20+ years and had the vast majority of the imports and exports go through it, as well as their capital city be arguably the most important financial centre in the world as a result of it. They've never been in this situation so have never had to deal with the repercussions of leaving it. Sure, long term you might be fine like these countries once everything is dead and buried but that is a long way away.

you're borderline deluded if you think that once the UK invokes article 50 and fecks off that everything will be hunky dory for you.
 
Mihajlovic said:
Other countries around the world haven't decided over night to abandon all trade agreements and start negotiating from scratch. Those countries continue to operate today precisely because they have spent decades and decades of negotiating and crafting deals which best suit them.

It was mentioned that the UK referendum was about leaving the EU but not about leaving the single market. I can only hope that common sense and good judgement will prevail and instead of Britain seeking trade deals with Australia, Singapore and freaking Mexico, it will rather cough up the membership fee and remain in the market that is literally at their doorstep.
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If the Uk remains part of the single market and thus have to accept free movement , nothing would have changed other than the UK losing it's vote in the European parliament, which has been pointed out thousands of times to them.
 
Can someone quickly and simply explain to me why the pound is falling through the floor, but the FTSE is soaring?

there must be some sort of correlation. but which is better? A crap pound or strong FTSE?
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Other countries around the world are continuing on everyday without being members of such a political union, why not us? Or are they all poverty stricken and i just failed to notice? None of what i spoke is implausible or unrealistic, indeed we have introduced all of them in the past to enhance the economy.

You are also asking me to forego my one chance to influence such events, as referenda are a very rare occurrence in the United Kingdom. Had Remain been the victor, i doubt whether we'd have seen another vote for several decades. The EU is going to become increasingly centralised over time (there existed no practicable route to acceptable reform), and this present experiment has evolved it too fast a pace as it is. Europe would be far better off if it started this exercise of cooperation from scratch.
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This is my problem with your stance Nick, we are not on the outside looking in and deciding whether to join the EU, given what the EU is now if this had been a vote to join anew I would have said No but that was never the question. We are deeply intertwined with the whole system, a system we helped build and implement over 40 years. To exit we need to disentangle ourselves, something nobody else has ever tried to do and we have chosen to do it at a time when our economy was sitting precariously on the edge of our worst ever recession looking like we were just out of the worst of it.

The EU may become more problematic but we are so deep in it that we risk irreversibly damaging our own economy to extricate ourselves, my preferred option in that scenario would always be to remain and fight for what we believe is the best course of action for the whole of the EU.

Nick 0208 Ldn said:
We do now stand a change of buildling something better than the EU is presently destined to become. It shan't be realised in only five months however.
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As a Civil Engineer I do like to review the plans before breaking ground and starting on the foundations and I do make damned sure all the players in the project are capable and competent. What is it we stand a chance of building? I see no plans, only a bunch of bumbling incompetents repeating empty phrases about taking back control and making Britain great again, they're talking about the spire on the top of this glorious edifice of yours without a clue about the foundation conditions or superstructure supporting it and with zero idea how to design or build that structure. I'd never expect a grand project to be completed in just 5 months, but a reasonable idea of a programme should be available by now yet still we see nothing.

It's not even like we're building from scratch, Britain exists here and now, warts and all and what they are proposing is an underpinning operation prior to refurbishment and expansion work. If you don't want to end up in a deep, dark hole and a world of hurt you really need experts for underpinning but we've not even got Bob the Builder on the scheme.

hats-boris-hard-1_3386598k.jpg
 
Rooney24 said:
Can someone quickly and simply explain to me why the pound is falling through the floor, but the FTSE is soaring?

there must be some sort of correlation. but which is better? A crap pound or strong FTSE?
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There is a correlation
 
Rooney24 said:
Can someone quickly and simply explain to me why the pound is falling through the floor, but the FTSE is soaring?

there must be some sort of correlation. but which is better? A crap pound or strong FTSE?
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"FTSE 100 are companies whose shares trade on the London Stock Exchange, but whose operations are far further flung. Credit Suisse recently calculated that the constituents of the FTSE 100 collectively make around three-quarters of their money beyond these shores.

Those revenues are earned in foreign currencies, which must be converted back into sterling for reporting purposes; the weaker the pound, the bigger the relative boost those companies get from those foreign earnings."
 
Rooney24 said:
Can someone quickly and simply explain to me why the pound is falling through the floor, but the FTSE is soaring?

there must be some sort of correlation. but which is better? A crap pound or strong FTSE?
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Most of the FTSE 100 companies are global businesses which report in £. So if the $ or € are going up against the pound, $140 of earnings could move from being worth £100 to £120. FTSE 250 companies are more likely to be UK based, where the effect of imports/ exports are going to be properly felt, and the balance of trade is going to determine whether the falling pound is very good or bad news for them.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Regarding the border between Ireland and the UK, do not see this working at all.
Borders are two way, not just to protect the Brits from the outside world but also to protect the outside world from the Brits.
Once British people are in Ireland they are in the EU.

Even more unclear is the movement of goods. Who is going to deal with the customs formalities, payable of duties, VAT of goods that cross the border.
Little thought in another Brexit idea.
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Yes. However, Ireland and the UK have had a Common Travel Area agreement since before either were in the EU and the reintroduction of a hard border would be seen as a violation of the Good Friday Agreement. That outcome is essentially unacceptable to all parties concerned.

Besides, other EU countries will be able to screen for UK travellers in the same way they do for other non-EU travellers. This is really just about finding a compromise to maintain something like the pre-existing CTA between Ireland and the UK.
 
This is going predictably well.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Naturally, few here were falling over themselves to post a less pessimistic viewpoint, however Mervyn King doesn't appear to be appear to be suffering from palpitations:


Fall in sterling is a welcome change

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...a-welcome-change-says-mervyn-king-brexit-vote
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Yet he fails to say why it's a good thing other than stating the glaringly obvious "Some economists argue that a fall in the pound could force the UK economy to rebalance towards more exports because British products become more competitive on overseas markets when the currency is weaker." Would these economists not be seen as experts whose prognostications we should ignore? Even if we do take them seriously they somehow fail to address that our economy is geared towards imports at the rate of nearly 4:1 so even if the slide is beneficial to exports, at this time it is likely that 80% of us will feel the pinch as a result.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Regarding the border between Ireland and the UK, do not see this working at all.
Borders are two way, not just to protect the Brits from the outside world but also to protect the outside world from the Brits.
Once British people are in Ireland they are in the EU.

Even more unclear is the movement of goods. Who is going to deal with the customs formalities, payable of duties, VAT of goods that cross the border.
Little thought in another Brexit idea.
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I live in Donegal and have politician friends who work with the higher ups in the North and I'm told the hard border is 100% not happening, nobody is pushing for it.
The other line of thought is this will bring jobs and opportunities to the North and the border towns (we up here in Donegal have been long neglected by our state) when British companies use us as their gateway for a form of legal smuggling into the EU.
Everybody is rushing for their Irish passport anyway so it's not as if any sort of a 'Border against the British' would be worth the hassle.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
Hammond is still using Osborne's report, the same one which Andrew Neil showed to be an embarrassment to the Treasury on national television.
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"The net impact on public sector receipts - assuming no contributions to the EU and current receipts from the EU are replicated in full - would be a loss of between £38 billion and £66 billion per year after 15 years, driven by the smaller size of the economy."

Even if you work with the lower figure, it's still an enormous loss. Btw is Osborne's pre-referendum report not cleared for public?
 
Mihajlovic said:
That's the whole point though. Your entire concept of a better and stronger Britain is based on things that you're hoping to achieve. With the EU at least you know what the deal is in regards to your economy, security, education, etc. It was absolutely mental to risk what you know and replace with a big fecking unknown. That's just illogical. There was no bloody need for this.
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Fundamentally disagree with this bit. The EU causing uncertainty about their 'project' is a huge reason for why Brexit happened. From a trading union to social union, political union and now talk of military union - who knows what's next? In fact, if they had been (are) just open and upfront about their aims, what they ultimately want to achieve (ala UN when it was setup), then they'd have far less angst their way IMHO.
 
Mihajlovic said:
Food prices going up, petrol prices going up, the pound less worth when going abroad, etc. Can't really see how all this is a welcome change.
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Last week the pound suffered a "flash crash", falling suddenly from $1.26 to $1.14 in the space of a few seconds, prompting the Chancellor Philip Hammond to warn that the UK would face an extended period of turbulence as it adapted to its new circumstances.

But Lord King said: "The whole thing has generated reactions which are over the top."

"During the referendum campaign, someone said the real danger of Brexit is you'll end up with higher interest rates, lower house prices and a lower exchange rate, and I thought: dream on.

"Because that's what we've been trying to achieve for the past three years and now we have a chance of getting it."

He concluded: "I don't think we should fear (Brexit). It's not a bed of roses, but nor is it the end of the world."

http://news.sky.com/story/lower-pound-a-welcome-change-says-former-bank-chief-lord-king-10612690
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Maybe that will help explain things a bit.
 
sullydnl said:
Yes. However, Ireland and the UK have had a Common Travel Area agreement since before either were in the EU and the reintroduction of a hard border would be seen as a violation of the Good Friday Agreement. That outcome is essentially unacceptable to all parties concerned.

Besides, other EU countries will be able to screen for UK travellers in the same way they do for other non-EU travellers. This is really just about finding a compromise to maintain something like the pre-existing CTA between Ireland and the UK.
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cyberman said:
I live in Donegal and have politician friends who work with the higher ups in the North and I'm told the hard border is 100% not happening, nobody is pushing for it.
The other line of thought is this will bring jobs and opportunities to the North and the border towns (we up here in Donegal have been long neglected by our state) when British companies use us as their gateway for a form of legal smuggling into the EU.
Everybody is rushing for their Irish passport anyway so it's not as if any sort of a 'Border against the British' would be worth the hassle.
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Yes I agree with both of you and a hard border would be a disaster.
I am thinking of the practicalities.

There are all sorts of ramifications though which I haven't had time to completely think about but just off the top of my head.
Lorry or container arrives into Ireland carrying goods from Poland, for example. If the Uk are out of the single market and tariffs are imposed on these goods, duty payable etc . These goods can be sold within Ireland without payment of duty etc, or declaration and are in free circulation and can be sold to an Irish buyer. If the lorry decided to drive into Northern Ireland and sell the goods there or the Irish buyer decides then to sell the goods to a buyer in Northern Ireland, what happens then. Where are the custom controls and who pays the duties etc. The reverse can also be true.

Also the people who live in Ireland can pop into Northern Ireland and freely buy goods and vice versa, who will be monitoring the formalities of this?
 
I don't agree with all the assumptions and arguments of the author, but it is still a good comment in a time, when both sides use rather divisive rhetoric. These negotiations are not a zero-sum game. Cooperation is in the interest of both sides and keeping as many ties as possible with the UK is desirable.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/10/10/punishing-britain-with-a-tough-brexit-will-harm-everyone/

Punishing Britain with a tough Brexit will harm everyone
The mood against Britain in Europe is hardening, with French president François Hollande calling for a tough Brexit to deter other states from leaving. But, argues Stefan Kooths, this is an enormous mistake. The uncertainty will harm everyone involved in negotiations. If Britons are to be convinced of the EU’s benefits – and perhaps one day decide to rejoin – we should keep as many bridges as possible between the UK and the EU. That probably means giving up the principle of freedom of movement of labour.
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Paul the Wolf said:
Yes I agree with both of you and a hard border would be a disaster.
I am thinking of the practicalities.

There are all sorts of ramifications though which I haven't had time to completely think about but just off the top of my head.
Lorry or container arrives into Ireland carrying goods from Poland, for example. If the Uk are out of the single market and tariffs are imposed on these goods, duty payable etc . These goods can be sold within Ireland without payment of duty etc, or declaration and are in free circulation and can be sold to an Irish buyer. If the lorry decided to drive into Northern Ireland and sell the goods there or the Irish buyer decides then to sell the goods to a buyer in Northern Ireland, what happens then. Where are the custom controls and who pays the duties etc. The reverse can also be true.

Also the people who live in Ireland can pop into Northern Ireland and freely buy goods and vice versa, who will be monitoring the formalities of this?
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Aye, it's a logistical nightmare, as well as a boon for smugglers:

http://m.independent.ie/opinion/com...pen-the-northern-ireland-border-34833965.html
 
Red Defence said:
Mervyn King said:
"During the referendum campaign, someone said the real danger of Brexit is you'll end up with higher interest rates, lower house prices and a lower exchange rate, and I thought: dream on.

"Because that's what we've been trying to achieve for the past three years and now we have a chance of getting it."
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Maybe that will help explain things a bit.
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Well that's the bit that was missing from the Guardian piece Nick quoted and whilst I'll agree that long term something to reduce the housing bubble, encourage savers and kick start pension funds and possibly even restart our manufacturing industries are all good things and goals that the Bank of England sought for many years I do question how many people will suffer badly in the short to medium term as they are plunged into negative equity yet can't afford to meet the rising costs of their mortgages that have not moved in the last 8 years. Similarly our industry is no longer geared up for manufacture, we sold all of that down the river chasing the dream of a service economy decades ago; even the handful of manufacturers we do have only make components which head onto the continent to wind up in products finished elsewhere, jobs which could be moved offshore if we do go for a hard Brexit.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes I agree with both of you and a hard border would be a disaster.
I am thinking of the practicalities.

There are all sorts of ramifications though which I haven't had time to completely think about but just off the top of my head.
Lorry or container arrives into Ireland carrying goods from Poland, for example. If the Uk are out of the single market and tariffs are imposed on these goods, duty payable etc . These goods can be sold within Ireland without payment of duty etc, or declaration and are in free circulation and can be sold to an Irish buyer. If the lorry decided to drive into Northern Ireland and sell the goods there or the Irish buyer decides then to sell the goods to a buyer in Northern Ireland, what happens then. Where are the custom controls and who pays the duties etc. The reverse can also be true.

Also the people who live in Ireland can pop into Northern Ireland and freely buy goods and vice versa, who will be monitoring the formalities of this?
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My guess is a hardline on travel from Northern Ireland to mainland Britain and sort of give up on a losing border battle, that's why this talk of legal smuggling is starting to grow up here.
It's an enormous loophole that's impossible to plug in the current climate imo.
 
PedroMendez said:
I don't agree with all the assumptions and arguments of the author, but it is still a good comment in a time, when both sides use rather divisive rhetoric. These negotiations are not a zero-sum game. Cooperation is in the interest of both sides and keeping as many ties as possible with the UK is desirable.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/10/10/punishing-britain-with-a-tough-brexit-will-harm-everyone/
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How dare you! He's a foreign expert, clearly his advice should be thrown in the gutter.
 
Scholesy said:
I would like the UK to be a country of no imports and exports, stand on our own
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It's impossible, even a country like Russia who has most of the crucial raw material can't. And what do you do with financial exports and the City in general?
 
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