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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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This is what the EU proposed to the UK in March, where is the unilateral punishment? The following is about dispute resolution:
Article LPFS.2.52: Panel of experts

1. If, within 90 days of a request for consultations under Article LPFS.2.51 [Consultations], no mutually satisfactory resolution of the matter has been reached, a Party may request the establishment of a panel of experts to examine the matter. The request shall set out the reasons for requesting the establishment of a panel of experts, including a description of the matter at issue and indication of the relevant provision(s) of this Section that it considers applicable.

2. The Specialised Committee on the Level Playing Field and Sustainability shall, at its first meeting after the entry into force of this Agreement, establish a list of at least 15 individuals who are willing and able to serve as panellists on the panel of experts. The list shall be composed of three sub-lists: one sub-list for each Party and one sub-list of individuals that are not nationals of either Party. Each Party shall propose at least five individuals for its sub-list. The Parties shall also select at least five individuals for the sub-list of individuals that are not nationals of either Party. The chairperson of a panel of experts shall be selected from the latter list. The Specialised Committee on the Level Playing Field and Sustainability shall ensure that the list is kept up to date and that the number of experts is maintained at least at 15 individuals.

3. The individuals referred to in paragraph 2 shall have specialised knowledge of or expertise in labour or environmental law, issues addressed in this Section, or the resolution of disputes arising under international agreements and shall act independently.

4. Unless the Parties agree otherwise within five days from the date of establishment of the panel of experts, the terms of reference shall be: "to examine, in the light of the relevant provisions of the Other instruments for trade and sustainable development Section of […] Agreement, the matter referred to in the request for the establishment of the panel of experts, and to issue a report, in accordance with Article LPFS.2.52 [Panel of experts] of Title III [Level playing field and sustainability] with its findings and recommendations for the resolution of the matter".

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5. With regard to matters related to compliance with multilateral agreements and instruments referred to in this Section the opinions of external experts or information requested by the panel of experts should include information and advice from the ILO or relevant bodies or organisations established under the multilateral environmental agreements. The panel of experts shall forward such opinions, information or advice to each Party allowing them to submit their comments within 20 days of its receipt.

6. The reports of panel of experts shall set out the findings of facts, the applicability of the relevant provisions and the basic rationale behind any findings and recommendations. The Parties shall make the final report of the panel of experts available to the public within 15 days of its submission by the panel of experts.

7. The Parties shall discuss appropriate measures to be implemented taking into account the report and recommendations of the panel of experts. The Party complained against shall inform its domestic advisory group established under Article INST.7 [Domestic advisory groups] of Title I [Institutional framework] of Part Five [Institutional and horizontal provisions] of this Agreement and the other Party of its decisions on any actions or measures to be implemented no later than three months after the report has been issued to the Parties.

9. The Specialised Committee on the Level Playing Field and Sustainability shall monitor the follow-up to the report of the panel of experts and its recommendations. The domestic advisory group set up under Article INST.7 of Title I of Part Five [Institutional provisions] may submit observations to the Specialised Committee on the Level Playing Field and Sustainability in this regard.

10. Except as otherwise provided for in this Article, the provisions set out in Article INST.15 [Arbitration procedure], Article INST.28 [Lists of Arbitrators], Article INST.30 [Arbitration tribunal decisions and rulings], Article INST.18 [Compliance measures], Article INST.23 [Reasonable period of time], Article INST.20 [Compliance review], Article INST.29 [Rules of procedure], Article INST.31 [Suspension and termination], Article INST.32 [Mutually agreed solution], Article INST.33 [Time periods], Article INST.34 [Costs], as well as ANNEX INST-3 [Rules of Procedure] and ANNEX INST-4 [Code of Conduct] to Title II [Dispute settlement] of Part Five [Institutional and horizontal provisions], shall apply mutatis mutandis.
 
So what kinda mitigation roughly will a deal have? In comparison to no deal?

As far as I understand, access for goods but subject to customs bureaucracy. Agreement on a myriad of issues like flights so we avoid total shock therapy on 1 January.

Objectively, it’s awful (like exchanging a nice house for a bed in the homeless shelter) but, symbolically, it signifies the UK still adheres to the international rulebook and provides a base on which to expand and rebuild relations with our giant neighbour.
 
As far as I understand, access for goods but subject to customs bureaucracy. Agreement on a myriad of issues like flights so we avoid total shock therapy on 1 January.

Objectively, it’s awful (like exchanging a nice house for a bed in the homeless shelter) but, symbolically, it signifies the UK still adheres to the international rulebook and provides a base on which to expand and rebuild relations with our giant neighbour.
Aaah I see, thank you.
 


This is what the EU proposed to the UK in March, where is the unilateral punishment? The following is about dispute resolution:

You've overlooked the relevant sections of the draft text the EU previously published. Really good legal summary here: https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.c...-of-the-future-partnership-between-the-eu-and

Key part on the "interim measures" (emphasis is mine):
However, the EU negotiating mandate requires the Commission to seek and agreement that “should uphold common high standards, and corresponding high standards over time with Union standards as a reference point”. This is taken to mean securing dynamic alignment of UK legislation with that of the EU.

In the fields of taxation, social rights, environmental protection and climate action an obligation of non-regression from existing standards is combined with a kind of ratchet mechanism. When a party increases its standard of protection it may not subsequently lower it below the level achieved by the other party. This is described in slightly varying terms in Articles in Article LPFS.2.27 and 2.28 for labour and social protection, LPFS.2.30 and 2.31 for environmental protection and Article LPFS.2.36 for climate action.

These “ratchet” provisions are a clever attempt to reconcile the demands of the EU Member States as expressed in the EU mandate with the need for balance and the impossibility of requiring the EU to follow the UK, if it were to increase its level of protection as would be necessary if a properly reciprocal obligation of dynamic alignment were to be agreed.

The UK drafts do not contain these provisions and provide only that the parties “shall strive to continue to improve such laws and policies and their underlying levels of protection” (see e.g. Article 27.2 on Trade and Labour Law and Article 28.3 on Trade and Environment in the UK draft FTA).

In the field of subsidy control, however, the EU proposes to go much further and would require the UK adopt changes to EU State aid law and policy and provides for the EU to be able to adopt appropriate “interim measures” until the UK does so (Article LPFS 2.9(1)(c)).

The UK draft avoids all references to State aid, preferring to employ the notion of subsidy as understood in the WTO Agreement, although it does propose a system of control (applicable equally to both parties) going beyond that of the WTO.

An additional feature of the EU proposal on State aid is that the EU is proposing that it (but not the UK) should be entitled, pending the outcome of a dispute settlement process, to adopt unilateral interim measures in the event that it considers that the UK has not complied with its obligations (Article LPFS.2.9).
 
You've overlooked the relevant sections of the draft text the EU previously published. Really good legal summary here: https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.c...-of-the-future-partnership-between-the-eu-and

Key part on the "interim measures" (emphasis is mine):

When the EU creates a new act that falls within the scope of state aid control it has to notify the UK in the specialised committee, the UK and the EU can request to exchange views on the implications of the new act in order to allow this section of the treaty to function properly, that exchange has to happen within 6 weeks of the request.
The specialised committee has to either add the new act to Annex LPFS-x if both sides agree or if an agreement can't be find examine all possibilites that maintain the good functioning of the state aid control section and take any decisions to that effect. Now this procedure doesn't prevent the EU from taking interim measures that in theory can only be applied if the specialised committee fails to take a decision, the UK rejects the specialised committee decision.

The second bolded paragraph is interesting because it's in relation to INST.13 and subsequent articles which applies to both sides and not just the EU, Inst.17 and INST.21 are particularly interesting because they allow the complaining side to unilaterallly suspend his obligations to any provision of the agreeement, if the respondent doesn't follow the specialised committee or arbitration tribunal decison within 6 months.
 
Couple of articles in the FT today about Britain's plans for regulatory reform post-Brexit to become more attractive to certain sectors.

UK draws up plans to rival Singapore with post-Brexit shipping regime - reform tonnage tax once out of EU state aid regime to try to attract global shipping companies to register in UK.

Treasury plans UK tax shake-up for asset holding companies - reform regulation and taxation of private equity and infrastructure funds to try to attract more of the asset management industry away from places like Ireland and Luxembourg.

I think it's indicative of the way the UK will try to compete through strategic reforms aimed at key sectors. I always thought this was a more likely strategy for Britain to seek to gain advantage, rather than the lowering consumer product standards which seems to have got more press (e.g. chlorinated chicken).
 
Sorry, I don't follow what you're getting at.

OK lets leave it at that, my fault for getting off on the wrong foot, misunderstanding your original post. We are looking at things from different standpoints, I'm talking 'apples' you 'oranges'!
 
If they do a deal, do we get to bill them for all the shit we've had to trawl through in preparing for a no deal?
 
you can still get 8/11 on there not being a deal

political odds always through up great value like this

case in point all the MAGA cnuts betting on Trump skewed the value heavily in favour of Biden despite the polls

Odds got up to 3/1 on no deal today. I know there's a fair chance of a fudge at this point but that seemed absurd to me!
 
He is Australian to be fair.

They call each other cnut as a term of endearment.

He was the best PM we had in a generation. An actual forward-focused thinker that didn't stand for conservative BS. Only to be stabbed in the back by his own party :(
 
If they do a deal, do we get to bill them for all the shit we've had to trawl through in preparing for a no deal?

Of course, when you bring the bill don't forget to take the 27 bills that are waiting for you.
 
just bet on no deal at 7/4 on hills - they capped me to £142

Yeah on SBK I could only make individual bets of £16.97 at 37/10 but you were able to just stack them on top of each other. Think it'll be my one and only bet this year and I really hope it doesn't win. At this point I think a bad deal for the UK is more likely but it's far from guaranteed.
 
Are truck drivers getting a pay rise for this shit? I am thinking of how much someone would have to pay me to sit through that and I can't come up with a number.
Speaking of shit, at least the vegetation on the side of the highways around there will be benefitting from trucks being stuck in place for hours on end.
 
Are truck drivers getting a pay rise for this shit? I am thinking of how much someone would have to pay me to sit through that and I can't come up with a number.
Don't they have set limits on how long they can drive for in any 24/48 hour period? You can't go over it even slightly or you're fecked.
 
And the customs checks don't even start until January.

Which transport company in Europe is going to pay its drivers to sit in a queue for hours or days on end? (both ways)

How many truck licences will be issued to UK companies by the EU after the end of the year? Not a lot.

Drivers will be paid, costs will be past on down the distribution chain to you and me.
 
Drivers will be paid, costs will be past on down the distribution chain to you and me.

Yes the costs will be passed down but will the transport companies want their trucks out of action for long periods. Choose between delivering from Germany to Spain or the UK, they'd choose Spain.
 
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Yes the costs will be past down but will the transport companies want their trucks out of action for long periods. Choose between delivering from Germany to Spain or the UK, they'd choose Spain.

The thing is that it won't be a long term situation. Logistic being the backbone of the goods economy, if there is no deal within 12-24 months, companies will move their activities in the area of their customers in order to reduce costs and delays.
 
The thing is that it won't be a long term situation. Logistic being the backbone of the goods economy, if there is no deal within 12-24 months, companies will move their activities in the area of their customers in order to reduce costs and delays.

Yes exactly.
Factories will move gradually.

But even with a deal there are still going to be customs checks and endless formalities, documentation etc with or without the magical automatic system that doesn't exist yet.
 
And the customs checks don't even start until January.

Which transport company in Europe is going to pay its drivers to sit in a queue for hours or days on end? (both ways)

How many truck licences will be issued to UK companies by the EU after the end of the year? Not a lot.

Yes. But of all the brexit discussion, this really important point is hardly ever discussed. And certainly not by any of the chicken hearted politicians.
 
Yes. But of all the brexit discussion, this really important point is hardly ever discussed. And certainly not by any of the chicken hearted politicians.

No it wasn't but then again most of the important points weren't discussed by the politicians or even the media, just slogans.
It was brought up many times in this thread and the pre-referendum thread.