I'd imagine it'd be pretty much exactly reversed with about a 4% victory for remain at best. The Leave vote was never driven by practicalities. It's an, now deeply entrenched, ideological position.
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He'll probably be seeking political asylum or buying sprouts for his Xmas dinner.
I'd imagine a pm in the middle of a global death lurgy is typically pretty busy and probably wouldn't be traveling unless there was something pretty important... so its either to announce a deal or take a shit on the espace leopold ... neither would shock me at this stage but I voted deal so ill stick with that
I think there will be a chicken scratch deal which will be seen as some sort of vindication.
I’m sure they’ll cobble together some shitty deal, and then probably breach their promises within a week to placate the ERG wankers.
America may have got rid of its buffoon but we are stuck with this plonker and his acolytes for years yet. What depressing times.
I think so too and voted Deal. I don't think Johnson stands for all that much himself, and will want to appear as the nice guy/hero that got a deal done at the last minute against all odds. (Or at least that's how he'll tell it, with a sprinkling of talk about EU extortion and the apocalypse on top as an apology to the no-dealers.)
It's partly also wishful thinking I guess. As much as I would like there to be a no deal situation that has ruinous effects on the UK just to finally make people realize how much they've been conned by people like Farage and many Tories, I wouldn't wish the actual consequences on the people in the UK that would truly suffer from them (who are, of course, not Farage and those many Tories). Also, ultimately, I don't think anything will manage to finally, truly expose the lying that's been going on and make a significant number of Brexit supporters change there minds.
Anyway, apart from the wishful thinking - I think it goes against Johnson's personality to do a No Deal, and there's no Cummings now to talk him into it.
People endorsed Brexit on multiple occasions by voting Conservative.
Americans at least came out in numbers to get rid of Trump at the first opportunity. The difference is Americans lived through the worst of Trump while the British have yet to experience the worst of Brexit.
2 leaders who are both children of people who worked for the eu in brussles meeting in brussles where they both went to the European school to discuss the eu... the erg will have a fit when they realise
Same.
Brexit is about identity. Reason doesn't apply.
And then completely fail to honour the deal.
Not really. Labour never ran a campaign based on reversing the Brexit madness, so the electorate hasn’t had a chance to vote for a different outcome since the referendum.
I have to agree, people are too lazy to read into anything, instead accepting boring simple slogans thinking everything will be fine.
True but they still voted for the party which was explicitly pushing Brexit. That support only increased as the Brexit being offered became harder.
There were still parties offering an alternative but they never really saw increased support which says that people were ok with Brexit or that Brexit wasn't an important topic to them and they chose to vote Conservative based on other factors.
I don't know if the result would've swung the other way had their been a second referendum but it doesn't appear that support for Brexit declined by much since 2016.
And by voting Labour in 2017, the Labour manifesto was quite clear about that. Not sure what voting Labour in 2019 meant to be honest, but it wasn't Remain at any rate.
You might be right. I’ve no idea. But the comparison with Trump doesn’t work. The UK electorate have never had a chance to undo their lunacy of 2016, unlike the US. Because neither of the major political parties were willing to give them that opportunity. Which is a crying shame.
On the one hand I agree that they never had the opportunity but on the other hand I think the UK electoral system is more favourable towards third parties even if they rarely succeed.
Going by the popular vote, the Lib Dems won a million or so more votes than the previous 2 elections but won 1 seat fewer than the previous election. The support for the Conservatives didn't change much in terms of popular vote but it seems they won the votes where they counted.
In any case, it doesn't show that Brexit was massively opposed by the large majority of voters.
Everyone has Brexit fatigue including myself and I'm at the "gerrowivit" stage as I've come to terms with it happening.
Boris has just gone to take personal glory for getting the deal done. They'll be Churchill like front pages in a couple of days I'm sure of it.
There seems to be a bit of a spat on Twitter between leading remain figures right now so why not bring it to here too. How much are remainers to blame for this mess?
I still remember the indicative votes fiasco and being incredulous at the Lib Dems and TIG for not supporting several motions. It felt like a moment and yet slipped away. A customs union could have won with a few of these peoples votes yet they decided no compromise and look where we and they are now.
There seems to be a bit of a spat on Twitter between leading remain figures right now so why not bring it to here too. How much are remainers to blame for this mess?
I still remember the indicative votes fiasco and being incredulous at the Lib Dems and TIG for not supporting several motions. It felt like a moment and yet slipped away. A customs union could have won with a few of these peoples votes yet they decided no compromise and look where we and they are now.
I tend to think this would be the outcome. A hairline win for remain.
The deeply entrenched ideological vote would stay the same. But there must be a small proportion of previous Leave voters disillusioned by the lies in the 2016 campaign and the reality of Brexit.
@Jippy @Paul the Wolf
Our antiquated first past the post system played into their hands. They were the only Leave party (except the Brexit party who stood down in Tory constituencies). The remain or second referendum parties split the remain vote.
Victim blaming springs to mind.
Victim blaming springs to mind.
Yeah it is a bit but that kind of ignores that there was an opportunity to get a more favourable brexit and it was passed on, by the centrists nonetheless!
Might be more like chamberlain in a few years
Post deal i don't see the papers attacking the government with that line. It's simply not in their owners interests to attack the government.
Any concessions will be characterised as shrewd compromises or they'll ignore them completely. Then you'll get the twitter folk saying remainers are just bitter that Boris got the deal they all said he could never get.
It may be close and possibly remain might just win - but if you held the vote in a year's time I would imagine that remain would win quite easily , at least 60-40. So far very few people have been affected by it, the first people to moan will be the Brexiteers when reality hits home next year.
I do remember thinking whether we could end up potentially regretting the voting down of May's deal if we ended up sleepwalking into a no deal situation. Which it appears is sadly not an unrealistic situation anymore (and in fact is rabidly supported by some of the more extreme Brexiteers).
I agree with @Fluctuation0161 that there is perhaps an element of victim blaming there but once the vote happened, I think views on both sides became a bit more entrenched and some remainers lost sight of what should perhaps have been the ultimate aim, which is to ensure the softest of Brexits and as good a possible relationship with the EU in the future, hopefully with a view to rejoining in the medium to long term.
I'm also a bit surprised to see people talking about the support for remain in a new referendum. Does anyone here actually know a leaver who's changed their mind? Seems like the same sort of wishful thinking we've all had for the past 4 years.
Or we might get some bizarre logic inversion where people say 'look how badly the EU is punishing us... we were definitely right to be shot of them'.
initially yes... give it a couple of years though if (when) those sunny uplands fail to materialize and I'm sure there will be plenty of papers looking to ensure people dont blame their pro brexit rhetoric and I suspect those untrustworthy europeans will be to blame as well as the people who signed the deal with johnny foreigner
I don't understand why people are re-running the Brexit vote. It was over in 2016 full stop.
The past is in the past and we have to forget about all the lies. History is just that. Time to move on.
The past is in the past and we have to forget about all the lies. History is just that. Time to move on.
I reckon there might be a few changed minds in Sunderland when Nissan pack their bags.
Yes but I don't understand this punishment idea. Either they are independent big boys and stand on their own two feet or they have to rely on handouts or generosity from the EU. Remembering that the real ardent Brexiters want WTO ie no deals with anybody. Trying to dissect a Brexit brain is extremely difficult, there doesn't seem to be anyone at home.
I don't think there will be a re-run in our lifetime but just a hypothetical scenario when the regrets start happening in the months and years to come.
Yes. I do understand that and I agree with you about the forthcoming mountain of problems.
But we made a fundamental mistake in 2016 for a whole host of reasons.
We are just going to have to try and make the best out of what is going to be an extremely difficult future whether there is a trade deal or (heaven forbid) not.
Any conjecture about how the referendum would go now is meaningless, in my view. The gullible are still gullible.
This is assuming that they think like you or I do though. Rather than blaming the EU, Nissan itself or perhaps Covid, which will arise as a very convenient excuse for all the shit that happens with Brexit.
Admittedly I know far far more remainers than leavers but I don't know anyone who voted leave who would change their mind now. But I know 1 or 2 who voted remain and have subsequently fallen for some of the propaganda about how could the EU treat us like this etc and are talking about how they might change their vote this time round.
I'd love to think we could pretend the last 4 years didn't happen (and I don't pretend to know what the country is thinking) but it does seem like its the same overly optimistic thinking that we've had as a group for the past 4 years about this.
The belief that falls in between that dichotomy is that while it is recognised that both the UK and the EU are acting in their own self-interest, the UK are standing up for themselves and require no special favours from the EU, they expect to be treated like anyone else would in the same scenario, they expect a basic level of fairness, and the EU are instead seeking their pound of flesh. That's been the line for the last few weeks now. The EU are treating us like we are still under their control, placing demands that they wouldn't of other sovereign nations, and we won't stand for it. We will uphold our sovereignty 'til death, and the EU need to get with the program. Doesn't seem to be harming them much. At least for the moment. Eventually reality will set in and then they'll just blame someone else.
But whatever is fair or unfair, an agreement will be made if both sides are happy. The difference between the UK and any other third country is their geographical proximity , which is a vital point in this discussion.
Whatever happens the UK cannot blame the EU nor can the EU blame the UK.
The Uk have decided to leave, if they're not happy with what's happening now they can leave without a deal, that's their sovereign decision as was their decision to leave in the first place.
Another significant point is that the EU obviously has no faith in the UK government to keep their word with the IMB bill still be considered and the UK acting as if they are being generous by dropping the relevant clauses. This is unbelievable.
Correct Paul, and it is exactly why it will be a 'no deal' decision.
This is the real fear for the EU, that a UK outside their rules is a competitor in their own backyard. For the UK, it is will it take the initial 'hit' of a 'no deal' outcome, so it can, over time, become the 'Wolf at the EU's door' (forgive the pun!)?
Its perhaps a 'bridge too far' for both sides; but, undercover of Covid-19, both sides may escape their collective failure/fate, because other priorities will loom that require close working between both sides, the post -Brexit era looms for both sides.
The poll is tight!