Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
No 10 won't say when Johnson/Von der Leyen meeting will happen - but rules out EU proposal for talks to continue into 2021
The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished, but reporters were left none the wiser as to when the planned meeting between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen will take place. “In the coming days” was about as specific as the prime minister’s spokesman was willing to be. He said Lord Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator, was meeting Michel Barnier in Brussels today to agree a briefing for the leaders on where the differences remain, and later Frost will return to London to meet Boris Johnson.

But the spokesman did rule out the EU offer for talks to continue into 2021. (See 11.54am.) Asked about this, he said:

We have been clear that the future relationship needs to be concluded by the end of the year, and negotiation won’t continue into next year. That has been our position throughout
Click to expand...

I don't understand why talks wouldn't continue even if no deal is reached.

Why would the UK not want as many trade deals as possible. I thought these talks were accelerated to avoid the UK crashing out.

Maybe I've misunderstood but it seems silly to get to 90-98% done and then decide to stop altogether because it wasn't finished this year.
 
Brwned said:
The belief that falls in between that dichotomy is that while it is recognised that both the UK and the EU are acting in their own self-interest, the UK are standing up for themselves and require no special favours from the EU, they expect to be treated like anyone else would in the same scenario, they expect a basic level of fairness, and the EU are instead seeking their pound of flesh. That's been the line for the last few weeks now. The EU are treating us like we are still under their control, placing demands that they wouldn't of other sovereign nations, and we won't stand for it. We will uphold our sovereignty 'til death, and the EU need to get with the program. Doesn't seem to be harming them much. At least for the moment. Eventually reality will set in and then they'll just blame someone else.
Click to expand...

What makes you think that?
 
horsechoker said:
I don't understand why talks wouldn't continue even if no deal is reached.

Why would the UK not want as many trade deals as possible. I thought these talks were accelerated to avoid the UK crashing out.

Maybe I've misunderstood but it seems silly to get to 90-98% done and then decide to stop altogether because it wasn't finished this year.
Click to expand...

To answer several people at the same time, for the same reason the TTIP failed. Politicians use the percentage rethoric to obfuscate because there have things that you need to imperatively agree on otherwise everything else is meaningless in this case governance is an example, if you can't agree on governance and both sides aren't close to each others then the rest is worthless.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
I tend to think this would be the outcome. A hairline win for remain.

The deeply entrenched ideological vote would stay the same. But there must be a small proportion of previous Leave voters disillusioned by the lies in the 2016 campaign and the reality of Brexit.
@Jippy @Paul the Wolf
Click to expand...
That small proportion of disillusioned leave voters just didn't materialise in 2018 or 2019, when we had the calls for the second referendum and then the election. I'm really using my northern relatives as a proxy for other ardent leave voters. I've heard "it's bound to be tough for a bit, but will be fine in a couple of years", "it's still worth it" and "well, all politicians lie anyway" way too many times to have any hope of the majority of them switching sides.

The only thing that caused a brief wince from my mother was when she was saying how she had to think about future generations when she voted and I pointed out that it's all but killed her nieces' chances of studying and working on the continent.
 
horsechoker said:
I don't understand why talks wouldn't continue even if no deal is reached.

Why would the UK not want as many trade deals as possible. I thought these talks were accelerated to avoid the UK crashing out.

Maybe I've misunderstood but it seems silly to get to 90-98% done and then decide to stop altogether because it wasn't finished this year.
Click to expand...
If that 5% or whatever outstanding boils down to fundamental ideological differences, then how do you move forward? It's clearly bonkers if you're crowing about a tiny trade deal with Cabo Verde while ignoring the trading monolith that accounts for half of your economy next door though.

The FT has been running this feature prominently for the last couple of days. I won't post the whole thing so they don't hound Niall, but it uses the TTIP example @JPRouve mentioned, along with a couple of others.

The rationality of a no-deal Brexit

Indeed, it’s not necessarily obvious to each side, particularly the Brits, where their own red lines are. Johnson doesn’t know how his headbanging Brexiter backbenchers or the Labour opposition will react to one deal or another.

But the point about rational failure still stands. Johnson might genuinely believe the LPF provisions are unconscionable vassalage, or that a nation stands or falls by the size of its herring fleet. Or he might be channelling some weird hybrid of Kamal Nath and Winston Churchill and has made the political calculation he would prefer to stand defiantly alone and doesn’t want a deal at all.

If the EU-UK talks genuinely do break down over fish quotas, or because Johnson actively wants to crash out, it will tell us a lot about dysfunctional trade preferences. But it won’t necessarily mean that the negotiators are ignorant or inept. If we had to guess, we’d still say a deal is likely. But if talks collapse, it’s entirely possible that that’s the rational thing to happen. Terrifying, isn’t it?
Click to expand...

https://www.ft.com/content/c6ae94cc-cc21-4a07-93b9-29aa940163ef
 
JPRouve said:
What makes you think that?
Click to expand...

Oh no I don't, that's just the UK line that's came directly from the government and its supporters in the mainstream media. Been building up for a while. That's their proactive defence for why things aren't working out.

The EU are being mean, not in a tough negotiator kind of way, but in a borderline unethical way. And it's turned into a nationalist statement when they say that the EU are doing this because they don't seem to recognise we've left, we are sovereign, they are acting like we're still under their control and will agree to their dictates.

There's grains of truth that mostly cover up the fact the UK are in a weak negotiating position and can't generate a good agreement, they now accept the EU don't need them as much as Brexiteers believe they do, and so it needs to be spun into the EU not agreeing with our entirely reasonable and gentlemanly requests.

But there's also a lot of misinformation about complicated details that I can't be bothered reading in depth, so I dont fully understand the specifics they're arguing over. I just know that's how they're spinning it.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
The poll is tight!
Click to expand...
I am flabbergasted by the proportion of people still expecting a deal. A deal (for 1st January) is already off the table.
Neither the UK nor the EU want to admit it right now, because of the potentially negative PR.
 
Jippy said:
If that 5% or whatever outstanding boils down to fundamental ideological differences, then how do you move forward? It's clearly bonkers if you're crowing about a tiny trade deal with Cabo Verde while ignoring the trading monolith that accounts for half of your economy next door though.

The FT has been running this feature prominently for the last couple of days. I won't post the whole thing so they don't hound Niall, but it uses the TTIP example @JPRouve mentioned, along with a couple of others.

The rationality of a no-deal Brexit



https://www.ft.com/content/c6ae94cc-cc21-4a07-93b9-29aa940163ef
Click to expand...

I fully agree with the part that you quoted. People need to understand that any deal isn't a good idea either and that each side can have rational divergencies that can't be easily amended. Now the issue for the UK is that they need a deal with the EU while the EU could and should have a deal with the UK but doesn't need it, at least not immediately.

All of that comes down to what I mentioned earlier in the thread 2024 should have been the brexit target but by trying to rush things and play political games everyone put itself in a bad situation.
 
Smores said:
I'll be very very vague but my missus dealt with an issue with this guy at his new employment :lol:
Click to expand...
Is he still employed? The 'his wife was ill at the time' defence is arguably worse than the Brexit one.
 
@horsechoker I completely forgot to mention something when answering your question. People need to keep in mind that in general trade deals are done in a context of convergence meaning that the current deal is supposed to be the base for a potential deeper relationship but in the case of Brexit we are in a context of divergence, the UK decided that they wanted to be gradually farther from the EU/EEA and that makes almost everything more complicated in particular when it comes to governance and LPF clauses because both sides know that they most likely don't have compatible projects.
 
Jippy said:
Is he still employed? The 'his wife was ill at the time' defence is arguably worse than the Brexit one.
Click to expand...

Yeah he is, don't think it was anything that bad to be fair just funny seeing it pop up on the daily mail. Not for him though i imagine, he should definitely change his name :lol:
 
Buster15 said:
Yes. I do understand that and I agree with you about the forthcoming mountain of problems.
But we made a fundamental mistake in 2016 for a whole host of reasons.
We are just going to have to try and make the best out of what is going to be an extremely difficult future whether there is a trade deal or (heaven forbid) not.
Any conjecture about how the referendum would go now is meaningless, in my view. The gullible are still gullible.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah, I wouldn't describe it as the wistful conjecture of remainers. :)

It's more about considering the impact of the vote and if people who voted Brexit will change their mind.

Regarding the lies, I wonder how many people will never re engage with politics again after voting Brexit and believing the hype.
 
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that real GDP will be 1.5 per cent lower in five years than its current central GDP assumption if London and Brussels do not strike a deal.

Important but not half the economy.

Or as the guy says in Margin Call this is where it becomes a projection.
 
The deal will be reached in the months of January/February when the brexit realities will come down in full colors and the pressure will mount on the British side. EU know this, UK can bluff all they want.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that real GDP will be 1.5 per cent lower in five years than its current central GDP assumption if London and Brussels do not strike a deal.

Important but not half the economy.

Or as the guy says in Margin Call this is where it becomes a projection.
Click to expand...

Important to note that's on top of the GDP hit from a Brexit deal which was around 4%. At least I'm fairly sure it is.

It sounds like small numbers of course but that's a very real hit and represents a lot of jobs lost.
 
sun_tzu said:
Ive not seen the stats but I think just over 72% of the population voted in the referendum ad the turnout in the last election was 68%
so probably not that many is my gut feel
Click to expand...
4% is quite a significant difference with regard to Brexit, if you recall. ;)

The lies have not fully materialised yet. Too early to say.
 
Jippy said:
Another day, another Brexit-backing billionaire who has since moved abroad reneged on a promise to build their new factory in the UK.

Ineos boss opts to build 'British' heir to Land Rover Defender in France
Vocal Brexiter Sir Jim Ratcliffe vowed to make new Grenadier 4x4 in Bridgend but has now bought car plant at Hambach

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...british-heir-to-land-rover-defender-in-france
Click to expand...

To be fair Ratcliffe delocalized his own self, so it's only natural that his businesses follow.
 
As you have placed an order on Amazon.co.uk and selected an EU delivery address in the past, we wanted to let you know that from 1 January 2021, when the Brexit transition period ends, you’ll see some changes when you shop on Amazon.co.ukand select an EU delivery address. These changes could include:

- VAT (or the regional equivalent, if applicable, https://www.amazon.co.uk/vatrates) being due in the country of delivery, or your package may be subject to customs duties, taxes and fees (“Import Fees”)
- the collection of VAT, or an estimation of Import Fees (“Import Fee Deposit” https://www.amazon.co.uk/ifd), which may result in a price change at checkout.
Click to expand...

brexit wankers
 
Jippy said:
Another day, another Brexit-backing billionaire who has since moved abroad reneged on a promise to build their new factory in the UK.

Ineos boss opts to build 'British' heir to Land Rover Defender in France
Vocal Brexiter Sir Jim Ratcliffe vowed to make new Grenadier 4x4 in Bridgend but has now bought car plant at Hambach

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...british-heir-to-land-rover-defender-in-france
Click to expand...

Difficult for me to articulate how much I hate hypocritical twats like this who've led us down this terrible path.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.