Depending on the question, it's very likely Brexiteers (Tory + TBP) will tell the people to bastein to delegitimise it. So yeah I expect a much lower turn out.
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Depending on the question, it's very likely Brexiteers (Tory + TBP) will tell the people to bastein to delegitimise it. So yeah I expect a much lower turn out.
Good then an easy remain win. They can moan it's not legitimate because the turnouts lower but it won't matter.
Of course you might see the brexit party gain some votes in the future but i doubt they'll be much appetite to go at it again.
Perfect example why the second one is needed. There's absolutely no way that leave would have won if leaves own impact assessments said a 4-6% hit.
I don't think you've thought this through. It's a Tory govt. They will not enact a referendum result that was done against their will and with a much lower turnout than the previous one.
No it wasn't, in 2016 it was wild promises and lies vs remain.
Now it would be a defined leave (that it's easy to prove will leave us all worse off) vs remain.
One thing is for sure, if the remain camp go at it with the same patronising tone of the last 3 years they will get walloped. They must outline what direction they think the EU is taking and why this is good. They will not win extra votes simply by talking about money
True there will need to be a positive message this time
Also I think remain will fragment between the end destination (trade deal with USA and a Singapore type model being the priority Vs deal with Europe and close alignment )... This time one suspects leave will be pushed much harder to define this as well as the implications in northern Ireland ... Put simply saying technology means we won't need checkpoints and it will be the easiest deal in history won't be acceptable answers this time
Plus all these quotes will be run continually to remind people of the first campaign
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.in...-may-nigel-farage-eu-michael-gove-8636801?amp
Remain needs to up it's game... But they do have a lot to work with
If you read the rest of the post you might understand the context and wouldn't need to ask that question. Just a thought.
I actually think it's more complicated than that and doesn't just rely on the result of a second referendum. It also relies on the result of the next GE.
Regardless of what the margin of victory is for "Remain" vs "No Deal", the Tory government will be hell bent on framing the result of the referendum as a loss for that particular Brexit rather than a sign that the public now wants to Remain full stop.
So rather than looking to revoke Article 50 in line with the result of the second referendum (There would definitely be no "Remain means remain" campaign), they will seek an extension and look to enter into negotiations with the EU for a different type of deal in the hope that a longer spell of propaganda in favour of whatever new deal they get will be enough to convince the public in yet another referendum further down the line. All the while maintaining that the default position is "No Deal", this is what the people really want and are blocked by parliament on voting for and using every loophole and mechanism they can find to force it to happen.
I think if remain win a second referendum then brexit / conservatives walk the following ge
Equally if we get taken out with no or a vary bad deal I think the libs (probably the European democrats by then) and labour (under a different leader) walk the following election under a banner of rejoin
Brexit isn't ending for at least a decade ...
The problem is, there needs to be a General Election before anything else can be done regarding a Second Ref in my opinion.
MP's were voted in on their parties manifesto at the time, and that was that Labour and the Conservatives would respect the result of the referendum and deliver Brexit. Lib Dems have always been honest about their intentions. Labour are now, in their front benchers words, a remain party, therefor they should campaign in an election based on that. If they win, they have a mandate to deliver what they say they will - a renegotiation of a deal based on their vision - then put it to the country. Whilst we have a minority government and an opposition so majorly divided in what they stand for, hell, even Corbyn won't come out and say Referendum before Election, theres no chance anything will work. People seem to think that all Labour MPs would just jump at the chance for a second referendum too, but i'm fairly certain that quite a few would abstain, and i'm betting the Lib Dems would too, as they want to revoke full stop and another Leave victory (if it happened) would pretty much seriously hinder them. Plus the SNP i imagine want an election over a second ref (as their amendment yesterday that was submitted suggests).
Yes an Election shouldn't be about Brexit, i agree, but until we get each parties absolute stance on the matter and know exactly what they plan to do, it's going to remain a mess. Labour need to fight an election saying they're a remain party but will offer the choice to the people, Tories need to say we have a good deal and we'll get it through the house. Lib Dems will promise to instantly revoke A50. Hence why i think as soon as the EU grant an extension, Boris will offer a GE and Labour will jump on it, knowing that No Deal is avoided. It's up to them then to convince the people that what they're promising is the best for the country, both Brexit wise and domestic policy wise. Until then, we're just going to continue the crap show that's happening with delay after delay.
The only way to avoid it is a confidence motion and a gnu that will stick together for the 6 months needed to deliver the referendum... I find that hard to imagine as I said earlier so that probably does break down to an election in which at least conservatives and brexit would campaign on no second referendum
They will because they don't have a majority and it won't be up to them.
Oh well that's the billboard campaign sorted for a second remain campaign
There is no chance a GNU would rule for 6 months, as you rightly say. To be fair i don't think they'd last very long at all as there would be too much jostling for power, and Corbyn isn't strong enough to keep everyone together in my opinion. The thing is, if there is an election and Labour say "Look, we know you voted leave, but we feel it's in the best interests of this country to have a final say on the deal" then if they do get a majority, their MP's will have no problem backing a second referendum as they were voted in on that, so they have the mandate from the people to do so.
As it stands, they were voted for on the promise of respecting the result, now they've changed to we don't like the result, we want to remain. They have no mandate to offer that, the same as they say the Tories have no mandate for No Deal. Hence why an election needs to be held with everyones final views on the matter, along with their domestic policies. Is it ideal? God no, is it needed, absolutely. Should Labour win, they could go to the EU, negotiate their deal, then say here it is, take it or remain, your choice.
The new Brexieteer's approach is that it was never about an economic argument! That's what Remoaners don't get!!
I've heard this quite a few times on LBC recently. Its like we are living in parallel universes.
Fair enough, ever the optimist I actually think the Conservatives are very close to their expiration point in Government regardless of what happens with Brexit over the next couple of years. More and more it's being taken over by politicians who have protest party mentalities and work better as the underdog or with a straw man to demonise. While Brexit is at the forefront of the agena, that's been easy to motivate them and focus their energy.
If Brexit goes ahead under Boris's deal, then quickly fractures are going to appear as they struggle to form a mandate they can all agree on and a direction the party should move in now Brexit is done and our position in Global politics ready to be defined. We're going to be in a position where we can start working on trade deals with America, China, India, Japan and countries in the Middle East. To the shock and horror of Brexiteers, there's going to be compromises we will need to make for the best trade deals and that will no doubt include freedom of movement and access to our resources like our Fishing stocks.
If Brexit doesn't go ahead, faith will be lost in the party and Brexiteers will look elsewhere and they will have to make a decision on aligning closer with TBP or finding a more nuanced position that wins back any Tories lost to Lib Dems.
Actually there is another option but it would be messy and controversial
That is to basically rewrite the rules on referendums and rush one through by the end of the year... But making it fair and having proper oversight in that timeframe I think is not going to work
It wouldn't work given the time frame.
As i say, having a General Election with manifestos reflecting your parties views and direction going forward would remove a lot of the anguish that the Labour MP's are currently feeling. Many of them won't back a second referendum as they were elected on the promise of respecting the 2016 result and they reside in a leave voting areas. If they vote for a second referendum, they'll see it as frustrating their constituents will and going against their wishes, hence why rather than vote with the government against the amendment, they'd abstain and clear themselves of any responsibility. Their thinking could well be, rightly or wrongly, back something my constituents didn't vote for and i lose my job in the next election.
If an election is held and the MP gets back into power with voters supporting the parties vision, and their promise of a second referendum or confirmatory vote, they can have no problem or issues with accepting it when the vote is finally held, or even if they didn't get into power and the Tories get a slim majority or have to form a coalition, they could vote for anything regarding a second ref with no worries of comeback from their constituents. As it stands, whilst their elected based on their 2017 manifesto of respecting the result of the referendum, i see a lot of Labour MP in leave voting areas abstaining from the vote, regardless of being whipped or not.
This of course is just my opinion, and as with everyone else here, i have no idea what will or won't happen
There is no majority for what you're advocating either.
Labour, Lib Dems, SNP & CUK don't make a majority. And the Tory rebels have repeatedly said they would back a deal that sees an orderly exit and the only thing they want to prevent is a no deal. But won't burn their bridges with the Conservative party to the extent you're suggesting.
They may look back on the decision not to go for a confidence motion earlier with regret
Think they had the numbers when it looked like no deal would be agreed
This would make sense if we were only weeks or months after the referendum, but after three and a half years then, sorry, it doesn't.
For what it's worth I've backed a three-way vote by transferable vote since May negotiated her deal, either by parliament or referendum, but MPs clearly haven't. Even on here plenty of people have said they want another referendum but not including the option they don't like, so not much better than the MPs really.
The positive message needs to be about immigration, the economic and social benefits and the effects restrictions would have on industry and the NHS. As for the EU, the French and Germans offered to put aside the result for a few years, sit down and renegotiate the structure of the EU, we refused. There is a possibility they'd still be willing to do so.
This week has showed why Corbyn needed to be shown the door last month. He's been utterly useless and devoid of ideas. Inept is the word I've heard used the most.
Don't think they have the numbers for anything honestly. But they can put forwards legislation themselves in the same way they did the Benn act. They need to act before 31st though, as nobody knows how the next speaker will react.
Don't think they have the numbers for anything honestly. But they can put forwards legislation themselves in the same way they did the Benn act. They need to act before 31st though, as nobody knows how the next speaker will react.
Is bercow stepping down as an MP on 31st October or just as speaker
If stepping down as an MP will there be a by election?
If he is only stepping down as speaker then presumably he will get to vote on legistlation as well (he could even in theory head a gnu)
I'm not sure how long I see him lasting in the conservative party if he goes back there
Impossible to say until it happens, but i don't see the next speaker being as remotely sympathetic to the remainers as Bercow was.
Also what the hell would the Governemt do in those 6 month given the are lame ducks without any authority? They couldn’t discuss BrExit as that would be at impassse and they’d lose virtually every debate and new bill from their Queen’s speech.
I’d personally love to see BJ get sent to his his ditch via 1000 cuts, but I suspect the public and media wouldn’t have such tolerance.
I’m sure he calibrates his actions according to Murdoch editors to ensure maximum faux outrage from a sycophantic media.
Thanks for clearing this up!
Also this phrase will become a new part of political lexicon, especially during the upcoming 2nd referendum or General Election.
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I think Corbyn is petrified of not getting the backing to take over
Once an extension is in place I think labour back conservatives in an election motion under fixed term parliament
It really is a mess
And you have to remember that many 2016 Leave voters have died since then, even more new Remain voters have reached voting age, and a better informed electorate will also switch from Leave to Remain. I haven’t seen any evidence that people are switching from Remain to Leave.
51.8:48.2 is only a 3.6% majority. On a 66% turnout. It was never ‘The will of the people’ no matter how you look at it. The capitulation of Remain post referendum was pathetic: they had every democratic right to be heard and massively influence any future deal.
I’m still utterly convinced that Remain easily wins a 2nd referendum, especially after a new round of campaigning. I mean exactly what will Leave campaign on?? Beyond racist jingoism, what are the benefits? This time around, Leave will be exposed for the xenophobic and charlatan scam it really is.
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Good for Remain.
This right here is the idiocy of this whole project.
Because of the idiot Cameron, leave was one single word that clearly meant whatever the last set of lies promised with millions of imaginary benefits.
Remain, also a single word meant maintaining the status quo.
But you're assuming that all young people are remainers and all older people are leavers.
The march yesterday for a peoples vote to essentially remain had a lot of older people involved. I personally know a lot of young people who are adamant leavers who are fed up of the fact we keep delaying and delaying.
It's wrong to just assume that everyone of voting age now is a remainer because thats what polls tell us? Polls have been proven wrong many many many times in the past few years, hell even the referendum poll was wrong! It's a dangerous precedent to set saying that we should have a second referendum because remain will walk it due to many remainers coming of voting age!
Just like i know A LOT of people who will vote Tories in the next election because they're fed up of Labour trying to block Brexit. These are people who have voted Labour their entire life who have now had enough of it all. I do know remainers who would now vote leave, and i know leavers who would now vote remain. I know remainers and leavers who wouldn't bother voting because they're under the impression that their vote wouldn't matter either way! I personally believe a second referendum wouldn't be as clear cut as those on here believe it would be.
Plus you have to remember the biggest thing - what people say and what people do are totally different things! Many people saying they're voting remain might do so out of fear of being labelled racist, xenophobic etc... Not saying that it'll be a huge amount of people, but just look at some of the posts on social media when the result came through, leavers were criticized to absolute hell. Do you think anyone would admit to voting leave when they see the abuse others have taken or admit to wanting to vote leave in another referendum??
My view entirely.
I stated that 'I haven’t seen any evidence that people are switching from Remain to Leave'.
You're welcome to provide some quantitative evidence which proves otherwise.
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I think only as speaker, and that he'll sit as an independent. He's not going back to the conservative party now. Too many bridges burned.
Edit: I'm wrong. As an MP too. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49639828
Exactly my point. Hence, 'they need to act before 31st'
And its not to remainers, it's to parliament over the executive.
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The chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster says today, unusually for a Sunday, he is chairing a cabinet committee meeting to ensure the next stage of exit preparations are accelerated because the vote in parliament yesterday increases the chance of no-deal. He says the government is "triggering Operation Yellowhammer" to ensure we're prepared if no extension is granted by the EU and the WAB doesn't pass to make sure "we've done everything possible".
John McDonnell, Labour's shadow chancellor, is asked if he's happy the PM has finally asked for the Brexit delay, after weeks of speculation about whether he would. "Not really," he says, saying Johnson "may well be in contempt of parliament or the courts themselves because he's clearly trying to undermine the law". The PM is behaving like a spoilt child, he adds, saying while it is just "theatre", his actions also "drive at the heart of our democracy".