The EU aren't stopping Labour proposing a Referendum Bill or adding it as an amendment though are they? Couldn't Labour have done that today?
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- Thread starter Silva
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does an unsigned letter mean anything?
yeah, I know why he's doing it, just that he's not following the intent or even the letter of the law by not signing it, right?
There already was one today which was selected but as Letwin passed the house was not divided on anything else as the government effectively pulled the vote.
Labour know it does not have the numbers for a second ref as first and foremost it has a big problem within its ranks because of the MPs in big leave seats. They want to be seen to support their constiuents "wishes" because they probably will want to continue being their MP. Only way is to threaten them with deselection and that will make them fall in line but no point of that just yet as the numbers aren't there even if all of Labour supported it. The DUP however will shift the balance so we will see what happens.
As UG said there was one in a statement of support but it wasn't legally binding. A legally binding bill won't pass whilst there's no time to enact it and that can only be given by the EU.
Thanks UB & Smores, I didn't know there had been one today. I too was thinking about the DUP, and whether if Corbyn whipped for a Repeal Act, or a Referendum, he might make it, if he wanted to that is. This letter-writing is nonsense as far as I can see, it's just playing into Johnson's hands. Should be more chances to come though.
Yeah had another look and all I can see is the letter has to end with the phrase 'Your sincerely, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom...'. As I said, it seems immaterial anyway. The extension has been asked for. It will be the content of the other letter that could be problematic for him. We'll find out on Monday.
Also the sheer arrogance of thinking people are so stupid that they believe stuff like:
Andrea Leadsom said:
Respect is won by respectable people. I see no reason anyone should be respecting brexiteer tories at this point in time. Not after their behavior the past 3 years.
Boris said that he would rather die in a ditch than ask for an extension. So the first comment is simply commenting on what he said and the second is obviously a joke based on that so it isn't anything to get upset about.
If someone jokes that they hope Corbyn gets trampled by a herd of unicorns nobody will take it as a serious hope or threat.
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We have toddlers in charge of the US and the UK. Stunningly childish.
EU should tell the UK either pass the deal, extend with a referendum or feck right off.
Or bicker endlessly with no resolution ever.
Either or.
Either or.
The extra letter, not signing the request is grandstanding for idiots. He's giving the Murdoch press the front page story about how he is defiant, to divert attention from the fact that he's done what he said he wouldn't, and asked for an extension.
To be fair it was a stupid bill in the first place, 'we want an extension because we can't agree what to do'. What will you do with an extension if you got one? 'we can't agree/don't know'.
Letwin or Benn?
It was a "we want an extension to avoid no deal". If May and Johnson hadn't repeatedly run down time to try and bully parliament into voting for what they offered, it likely wouldn't have been necessary.
The problem here is nothing to do with inability to agree deals. It's the way that May and Johnson have used deadlines and "the British people" as sticks to beat parliament with to avoid scrutiny of their work, and their inability to work across parliament under the guise of it damaging negotiating power.
Contrary to what people think, a good negotiation doesn't rely on threats, it relies on communication and understanding yours and the other side's goals. These things likely never factored into the EU negotiations, it was just a tool to try and get parliament to tow the line, and it didn't work. Rightfully so, this should take as long as it takes to get an agreement through with proper scrutiny, and anyone who disagrees with that really doesn't have the interests of the country at heart, but rather their own need to be right and have their own prejudices confirmed.
This whole thing has been done in the spirit of, “we’re British, we do what we want”. Unfortunately, that attitude has fallen on its arse before we’ve even left the EU, never mind what’s going to happen afterwards
I still can't get over this 'Global Britain' picture
I always thought it exemplified the anachronistic nature of the people who want the leave the EU the most, they want to rebuild the Britain of the 1850's with the attitudes of the 1950's. It's just absurd that the rest of us have to be dragged down with them because most of the right wing press has similar views, rather than pity them which is what we should be doing.
Boom... they have the numbers if that's true I think...
Suspect eu would reply to the boris letter offering a long enough extension to facilitate it
But after that I dunno... I'd guess boris wont put forward the legislation for a 2nd ref so there would still have to be a confidence motion... and either a gnu to see the referendum through or an election where presumably conservatives and brexit will campaign on non second referendum
Wouldn't count on it.
I can see many Labour MP's in leave constituencies rejecting it or abstaining. They'd feel like they were turning their backs on their constituents by disregarding their wishes. Plus if it's a referendum attached to the acceptance of a deal, Lib Dems and SNP will reject it anyway as they're heavily anti-brexit. They'll want a standalone ref
@ the DUP having to back a second referendum.The EU will never give an extension with a Tory in office.
Obviously you never know with this lot but i don't see them blocking a second ref if it gets the numbers. It would not only be depriving parliaments of it's voice but the people also and the optics on that aren't great.
Johnson will think he can win it and see it as a huge achievement if he did.
As long as the other option is remain I think libs and snp are on board
Most of the labour people who would oppose also opposed letwins amendment and that got through
I said before yesterday I thought the 2nd ref would be the most likely to pass anyway and if it's TRUE the DUP are onside that's a 20 vote swing...
I'm not sure a gnu can hold together to deliver it though
It takes 6 months to run a referendum though... I cant see him staying in power that long even if he did sign up to it... but in terms of people vs the parliament and delivering on the 1st referendum I think he would have to refuse to go along and resign knowing it probably results in a ge (unless somehow a gnu could be stitched together but that looks unlikely to hold up for 6 months I think)
Well that last part can be fixed in a day
The EU will never give an extension with a Tory in office.
Just because Letwin passed, doesn't mean a second referendum would.
Letwin was a chance to ensure that no-deal didn't happen, and they succeeded. Having a second referendum is completely different, and as i say, many Labour MP's in heavy leave voting areas will be dead against it out of fear of upsetting their constituents. Hell, even Labour MP's themselves don't think they have the numbers for that very reason.
You have to remember, a lot of Labour constituencies voted leave, and the MP's representing them want to respect their wishes. They could be whipped to vote for the amendment, but nothing is stopping them from abstaining, meaning that it'll be very difficult for it to pass. Plus, they've had numerous chances to have a second ref, even with May's deal, and if an extension is secured, Corbyn will want an election straight away.
I know all that... I also know that based ok the last referendum amendment it would have passed if the DUP were onside
I also think there are now many conservatives who are independent but previously were ordered to vote against
Hence now I think it has the votes
Well, that was short lived.
The DUP doesn't want a second referendum, so they likely won't back one. They'll keep rejecting the deal until they get what they want added to it.
Plus, you say independents will back a second ref, why so? Their jobs are the ones at most risk, so upset your constituents at your own peril. You're also assuming that all Labour MP's will vote for a second referendum, none abstaining and none siding with the government. Big assumption to make that if you ask me!
Politics is a great deal about appearances and without knowing much about what he stands for as an individual, he seems a lot more coherent, firm and inspiring than the rest of the Labour front bench.
He got a big cheer when he appeared on the big screen yesterday in the London March after the Letwin amendment passed. Abbott, Thornberry and McDonnell all appeared too, but none of them got anywhere near as good a reception. I reckon if Labour lose the next election they could do a lot worse than give Starmer a chance.
To be fair a second referendum was only short by 12 votes last time (280-292). Obviously a few abstentions whom would presumably vote this time, but I don’t think it is beyond the realms of possibility that it could pass.
If we do get an extension to 31 January and Boris’ deal is rejected then what else is there to do? It’ll either have to be a GE or a 2nd Ref surely? Unless we’re just going to edge to the next deadline and repeat what we’ve done since March
If we do get an extension to 31 January and Boris’ deal is rejected then what else is there to do? It’ll either have to be a GE or a 2nd Ref surely? Unless we’re just going to edge to the next deadline and repeat what we’ve done since March
It's my guess, and nothing more, that if the EU grant an extension and Boris' deal is rejected, he'll call for a General Election and Labour will accept it. Corbyn has already said once an extension is in place, he'll commit to an election, but the problem is, would he actually be able to get a majority? Who knows?
I see it playing out like so:
Deal comes to Parliament, Second Ref amendment beaten, Deal is rejected, Boris calls for an election - gets one.
We then have an election early December
2nd ref will require a longer extension.... probably till June (I.e. when the next eu financial period starts)
Suspect eu would rather just offer extension till June (subject to referendum motion passing) to save another extension in jan
Under the Benn act we are obliged to accept longer extension
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All the fuss about the letter is a bit ridiculous - the EU can clearly see what's happening in parliament - it's not a secret. They'll grant one if there is good reason.
I wonder who the MPs are who voted to hold the referendum in the first place, who also voted to trigger A50 without knowing what leaving the EU meant and then would vote to hold another referendum. They have to be the pits.
I wonder who the MPs are who voted to hold the referendum in the first place, who also voted to trigger A50 without knowing what leaving the EU meant and then would vote to hold another referendum. They have to be the pits.
All Brexiteers including current Tory MPs and Brexit Party stooges would fully back a second referendum if they could use it to force through a hard Brexit or if they thought they could exploit it as a vehicle towards No Deal.
As it is though, they know that there is zero chance that No Deal is on the card and they know that Boris's deal won't have the support to win a second referendum against Remain.
The main problem that the Leave MP's have with a second referendum is that they know how complex the issue of Brexit is, we've already seen it in Parliament. There is 17.4 million ideas of what Brexit should be and only 1 idea of what Remain should be. Trying to put a deal on the ticket that satisfies enough of that 17.4m to win a referendum is a difficult task. For a good percentage of them, "No Deal" is the only Brexit that matters and that will never be an option. For another good percentage of them "No Deal" is a fairy tale where we have all the benefits of being in the EU with none of their perceived grievances and that deal does not and never will exist.
I think they realise it would be a difficult task to get 17.m+ people to be energised to vote for a very pragmatic deal which concedes on almost all of the advertised benefits and comes with an absolute tonne of benefits.
Boris and co are trying their best to move the goalposts to the point where getting any deal accepted and leaving the EU is seen as a political win because it's now Leave vs Remain instead of "Us vs The EU".
nah that was Remain vs “whoever you last listened to said about what Leave was”
I think there will be quite a low turnout for another referendum
To be fair I think the only way a 2nd ref can actually settle things is if the leave vote goes down (say 15m) and the remain vote goes up (to 20m)
More people overall Vote
The leave vote goes down
And remain gets higher total vote and higher % than leave did before
57% to 43%
I don't think that's likley though (unless they drop age to 18 and allow EU nationals resident in UK to vote... Though that in its self would be seen as a stitch up
On that basis perhaps 24m to 16m (60% to 40%)
Although remain seems to be ahead in the polls certainly not by that much and they were ahead before as well
So yeah I think remain starts slight favourite but to settle things they would need a resounding win which I'm not sure is achievable
Still I voted remain before and hope I get the chance to do so again
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