Not at all. You commented on ‘my world’. I’m simply explaining how that works.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
What has this actually got to do with you personally. You are not an MP are you. Hold your head up man.
The polls looked wrong because they moved alot in last couple of weeks, and polls obviously lag behind as there is a delay between the poll being taken and the results being published.
As for why they moved so much:
The bit from 1.37 to 2.10 really explains it, lying facebook ads repeatedly targetted at persuadables.
The shy tories error remains though, because exit polls on those two general elections underestimated the tory outcome. Exit polls taking place at the same time and place as the actual vote.
The poll of polls did show Leave with a majority in early June 2016, but it had apparently turned into a 52:48% lead to Remain by the time the actual vote had taken place
In reality, obviously Leave was the 52:48 victor
The *why* the polls move doesn't matter (whether that's trhough targetted Facebook ads, royal intervention, etc). The question we're asking is if there is a hidden bias (even now?) towards Leave.
What?
Ah I'm not in any country there right now. I'm wondering more as to will our right to live and work elsewhere immediately cease as of October 31st or will there be some transitional period i.e I can move to an EU country as a UK citizen from Canada rather than having to return to the UK briefly because we chose to cut our noses off leaving me without an option to go elsewhere.
The shy tories error remains though, because exit polls on those two general elections underestimated the tory outcome. Exit polls taking place at the same time and place as the actual vote.
The poll of polls did show Leave with a majority in early June 2016, but it had apparently turned into a 52:48% lead to Remain by the time the actual vote had taken place
In reality, obviously Leave was the 52:48 victor
Probably.
It is beyond pathetic that a PM is using language like this - traitor, surrender and the like as well.
It was the fact you're asking people for qualitative data whilst coming out with gem's like this...
In reality, no one has an absolute clue on here how a second referendum will fall. People were pretty confident of a remain victory first time round & when it comes to the day at the ballot box, it can all change as we saw three years ago.
I do not see a convincing theory in either of those articles to suggest a systematic bias in the polls in favour of remain. Whilst early polls suggested remain would win, the gap narrowed nearer the vote, with John Curtice calling it 'to close to call' only a few days before the vote. Taking into account that trend (of leave gains), I do not think the result was all that anamolous.
The demographic changes put remain in a slight lead but turnout and how many people change their vote might not show well in polls.
It's all about turnout, that's the reality. Some of these polls i've seen recently have such a low base of respondents (less than 1% in many cases), that the sample size makes it difficult to imagine it correlating or reflecting to the actual turnout.
As Ive said, my point is drawn from well known quant data. Ive invited you to look it up.
The first result on google shows a net swing of only 25,000 people based on your 'well known' quantitative data.
Oh dear
That is the same source as mine ("see: What UK Thinks")... except the economist seem to have done after the fact reviewing of the data to "fix" the polls so that they (hopefully) more accurately show the public opinion at the time.
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/
Both your economist source and my "What UK Thinks" poll of polls source are correct, because they are the same. The inquiry into the failures of the 2015 polls (published in early 2016) found thus:
http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3789/1/Report_final_revised.pdf
I.e. the "shy Tory" phenomenon isn't due to people lying about their voting intentions, but because the pollsters were using poorly designed models.
Then you should do your research with more effort and due diligence than 'first result in google'!!
I consider Kellner to be one of the foremost experts on this. This was a very good recent article on his thinking:
Everyone says they know what the public think about Brexit – here’s the polling data that tells you who’s right
From enthusiasm for a second referendum to the chances Remain would win, the evidence on the public mood is clearer than a lot of people seem to think
Peter Kellner Thursday 10 October 2019 09:45
https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...-second-referendum-leave-remain-a9149491.html
The loudest voices on all sides of the Brexit debate have two things in common: they all seem convinced that they know what the public thinks, and they all believe that their supporters are in the majority. Their arguments are generally premised on myths, which they tend to fall back on where evidence would do much better. So, based on the most recent polling, here are four of those myths – busted.
Myth one: “Voters are so fed up with the whole process that they just want to get Brexit done.”
The slogan “Get Brexit Done” dominated the set at last week’s Conservative Party conference. But however fed up voters feel, most think that the right outcome – their preferred form of Brexit, or staying in the European Union after all – matters more than a quick resolution.
Recent Opinium surveys asked voters whether they agreed with the statement, “I don’t care how or on what terms Britain leaves the EU as long as we leave as soon as possible.” Just one in three said they did.
Myth two: “Voters haven’t changed their minds about Brexit since the 2016 referendum.”
It’s true that more than eight out of 10 voters say they would vote the same way in a fresh referendum as they did last time. But among the minority, more Leave than Remain voters are having second thoughts.
Figures in individual polls vary slightly, but an average of recent surveys shows a steady 53-47 per cent preference for Remain. This represents a five-point swing to Remain since 2016. Few general elections produce bigger swings than this.
Shifts away from Leave are greatest among working class voters under 50, NHS nurses and mothers of young children – voters attracted three years ago by hopes of higher-paid jobs and better-funded public services, but who now fear the impact of Brexit on both.
YouGov surveys show that while Conservatives who voted Leave in 2016 are still solidly behind Brexit, more than one in four Labour-supporting Leave voters now either back Remain or don’t know how they would vote.
Myth three: “If voters were persuaded in a new referendum to vote the same way as last time, Leave would win once again.”
This the assumption underlying the unofficial slogan, “tell them again”. Its truth seems obvious – but in fact, it’s not the case.
Two and a half million teenagers have reached voting age since 2016. Although turnout in this age group tends to be low, those that would vote are overwhelmingly in favour of wanting Britain to stay in the EU.
Over the same period, two million Britons have died. Older voters divided two-to-one in favour of Brexit in 2016.
Taking these two demographic factors together, and allowing for turnout differences, a referendum today would result in 600-700,000 more Remain voters and 800-900,000 fewer Leave voters – even if not a single person changed their mind. As the Leave majority three years ago was just under 1.3 million, this means that a referendum today would produce a Remain majority on demographic factors alone.
Myth four: “Voters don’t want another referendum.”
Brenda from Bristol’s reaction to the start of the 2017 general election – “you’re joking, not another one” – is widely thought to reflect majority views on a fresh referendum. It doesn’t.
One way or another, the final decision about Brexit must be taken by either MPs or the wider electorate. The latest YouGov survey finds that, by almost two-to-one, voters say that if Britain is to leave the EU without a deal, the decision should be taken by a referendum than by parliament. If a deal is agreed with Brussels, the margin widens to more than two-to-one.
From enthusiasm for a second referendum to the chances Remain would win, the evidence on the public mood is clearer than a lot of people seem to think
Peter Kellner Thursday 10 October 2019 09:45
https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...-second-referendum-leave-remain-a9149491.html
The loudest voices on all sides of the Brexit debate have two things in common: they all seem convinced that they know what the public thinks, and they all believe that their supporters are in the majority. Their arguments are generally premised on myths, which they tend to fall back on where evidence would do much better. So, based on the most recent polling, here are four of those myths – busted.
Myth one: “Voters are so fed up with the whole process that they just want to get Brexit done.”
The slogan “Get Brexit Done” dominated the set at last week’s Conservative Party conference. But however fed up voters feel, most think that the right outcome – their preferred form of Brexit, or staying in the European Union after all – matters more than a quick resolution.
Recent Opinium surveys asked voters whether they agreed with the statement, “I don’t care how or on what terms Britain leaves the EU as long as we leave as soon as possible.” Just one in three said they did.
Myth two: “Voters haven’t changed their minds about Brexit since the 2016 referendum.”
It’s true that more than eight out of 10 voters say they would vote the same way in a fresh referendum as they did last time. But among the minority, more Leave than Remain voters are having second thoughts.
Figures in individual polls vary slightly, but an average of recent surveys shows a steady 53-47 per cent preference for Remain. This represents a five-point swing to Remain since 2016. Few general elections produce bigger swings than this.
Shifts away from Leave are greatest among working class voters under 50, NHS nurses and mothers of young children – voters attracted three years ago by hopes of higher-paid jobs and better-funded public services, but who now fear the impact of Brexit on both.
YouGov surveys show that while Conservatives who voted Leave in 2016 are still solidly behind Brexit, more than one in four Labour-supporting Leave voters now either back Remain or don’t know how they would vote.
Myth three: “If voters were persuaded in a new referendum to vote the same way as last time, Leave would win once again.”
This the assumption underlying the unofficial slogan, “tell them again”. Its truth seems obvious – but in fact, it’s not the case.
Two and a half million teenagers have reached voting age since 2016. Although turnout in this age group tends to be low, those that would vote are overwhelmingly in favour of wanting Britain to stay in the EU.
Over the same period, two million Britons have died. Older voters divided two-to-one in favour of Brexit in 2016.
Taking these two demographic factors together, and allowing for turnout differences, a referendum today would result in 600-700,000 more Remain voters and 800-900,000 fewer Leave voters – even if not a single person changed their mind. As the Leave majority three years ago was just under 1.3 million, this means that a referendum today would produce a Remain majority on demographic factors alone.
Myth four: “Voters don’t want another referendum.”
Brenda from Bristol’s reaction to the start of the 2017 general election – “you’re joking, not another one” – is widely thought to reflect majority views on a fresh referendum. It doesn’t.
One way or another, the final decision about Brexit must be taken by either MPs or the wider electorate. The latest YouGov survey finds that, by almost two-to-one, voters say that if Britain is to leave the EU without a deal, the decision should be taken by a referendum than by parliament. If a deal is agreed with Brussels, the margin widens to more than two-to-one.
And that was consistent with his seminal study from 12 months ago.
In January 2019 Britain will officially switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country, and this is how we know
A new survey from YouGov shows that by March 29, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the British electorate want Brexit to take place. And that's why voters should have a Final Say
Peter Kellner Monday 17 September 2018 15:44
https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...um-brexit-no-deal-crossover-day-a8541576.html
Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died, and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age, to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016.
This is the clear conclusion from a new YouGov survey for the People’s VoteCampaign. They show that demographic factors alone are causing the Leave majority to shrink by around 1,350 per day, or almost half a million a year. Crossover Day, when Remain moves into the lead, will be January 19. By March 29, the day the UK is due to leave the European Union, the Remain majority will by almost 100,000 – again, assuming that nobody who voted two years ago has changed their mind.
This means that by March 29, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should “respect the verdict of the people”, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016. The latest research shows that this depends not only on the proposition that voters cannot change their minds, but on a specific definition of “the people”. It includes those who have died since the referendum – and excludes almost two million new voters who were too young in 2016 but will be old enough to vote by next March.
Here is how I worked out that January 19 will be Crossover Day.
Around 600,000 Britons die each year. Polling research has shown consistently that elderly voters backed Brexit in the referendum by two-to-one. We also know that they turned out to vote in larger-than-average numbers.
If we assume a turnout of 80 per cent among people who have since died, then each year the number of voters who die is around 480,000; applying the two-to-one Leave-Remain ratio, we can estimate that 320,000 pro-Brexit voters and 160,000 pro-EU voters die each year.
Now to new voters and the latest YouGov research. Within the past fortnight, YouGov has questioned 1,645 adults under 25, of whom 450 were too young to vote in 2016. Among those who have become 18 since Jun 2016, 65 per cent say they are absolutely certain – on a scale from 0 to 10 – to vote in a fresh referendum. I have counted only these people: if I were to include all new voters who express an opinion, the decline in the Leave majority would be even faster, and Crossover Day even earlier.
The number of people reaching voting age is 700,000 a year. A 65 per cent turnout implies an extra 455,000 young voters each year. YouGov’s poll finds that as many as 87 per cent would vote Remain, and 13 per cent Leave. It is worth pausing for a moment to reflect on those numbers. On an issue that splits Britain down the middle, we have a demographic group that divides by seven-to-one in favour of one side. I have seldom seen such a gulf between a particular group and the electorate as a whole.
Back to the calculation. YouGov’s figures suggest that each year 395,000 Remain voters and 60,000 Leave voters join the electorate.
Let us bring the two sets of figures together.
The annual change in the number of Remain voters: add 395,000 people reaching voting age; subtract 160,000 voters who die. Net effect: an extra 235,000 Remain voters
The annual change in the number of Leave voters: add 60,000 people reaching voting age; subtract 320,000 voters who die. Net effect: 260,000 fewer Leave voters
With the Remain vote rising by 235,000 a year and the Leave vote falling by 260,000 a year, the overall effect is to reduce the Leave majority by 495,000 a year. This works out at 1,350 per day. (The precise figure is actually 1,356, but I have rounded it down.)
In the 2016 referendum, Leave enjoyed a majority of 1,269,501. If that majority falls by 1,350 per day, it disappears 940 days after June 23, 2016. That is January 19, 2019, ten weeks before the UK is due to leave the EU.
To repeat: those calculations assume that not one person who voted in the last referendum has changed their mind – and that those whom abstained then would stay at home again. In fact, YouGov’s research shows that a fair number of today’s under 25s who were old enough last time but did not do so, would vote in a new referendum; and these people would divide 82-18 per cent for Remain. (This compares with a 75-25 per cent preference for Remain among the under 25s who DID vote last time.)
I have NOT counted any rise in turnout among the under-25s in my prediction that Crossover Day will be January 19. Were I to do so, this would, again, bring the day forward; indeed, it might already have happened.
YouGov also find that young voters are especially keen on a new popular vote. Those too young to take part in the last referendum divide three-to-one in favour. Among those who say they would definitely vote, the margin is more than four-to-one. These figures are not surprising but they are significant. We can debate the wisdom of allowing those who were old enough to vote last time to have second thoughts. New voters, however, are not requesting the right to have second thoughts; they want their first chance to take part in a decision that could affect the rest of their lives.
Peter Kellner is a journalist, political commentator, and former president of YouGov
A new survey from YouGov shows that by March 29, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the British electorate want Brexit to take place. And that's why voters should have a Final Say
Peter Kellner Monday 17 September 2018 15:44
https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...um-brexit-no-deal-crossover-day-a8541576.html
Early next year, Britain will switch from a pro-Brexit to an anti-Brexit country. To be more precise: if not a single voter in the referendum two years ago changes their mind, enough mainly Leave voters will have died, and enough mainly Remain voters will have reached voting age, to wipe out the Leave majority achieved in June 2016.
This is the clear conclusion from a new YouGov survey for the People’s VoteCampaign. They show that demographic factors alone are causing the Leave majority to shrink by around 1,350 per day, or almost half a million a year. Crossover Day, when Remain moves into the lead, will be January 19. By March 29, the day the UK is due to leave the European Union, the Remain majority will by almost 100,000 – again, assuming that nobody who voted two years ago has changed their mind.
This means that by March 29, it will be difficult to sustain the argument that the settled view of the British electorate is that Brexit should take place. We are told that we should “respect the verdict of the people”, and not reopen the decision they – we – reached in 2016. The latest research shows that this depends not only on the proposition that voters cannot change their minds, but on a specific definition of “the people”. It includes those who have died since the referendum – and excludes almost two million new voters who were too young in 2016 but will be old enough to vote by next March.
Here is how I worked out that January 19 will be Crossover Day.
Around 600,000 Britons die each year. Polling research has shown consistently that elderly voters backed Brexit in the referendum by two-to-one. We also know that they turned out to vote in larger-than-average numbers.
If we assume a turnout of 80 per cent among people who have since died, then each year the number of voters who die is around 480,000; applying the two-to-one Leave-Remain ratio, we can estimate that 320,000 pro-Brexit voters and 160,000 pro-EU voters die each year.
Now to new voters and the latest YouGov research. Within the past fortnight, YouGov has questioned 1,645 adults under 25, of whom 450 were too young to vote in 2016. Among those who have become 18 since Jun 2016, 65 per cent say they are absolutely certain – on a scale from 0 to 10 – to vote in a fresh referendum. I have counted only these people: if I were to include all new voters who express an opinion, the decline in the Leave majority would be even faster, and Crossover Day even earlier.
The number of people reaching voting age is 700,000 a year. A 65 per cent turnout implies an extra 455,000 young voters each year. YouGov’s poll finds that as many as 87 per cent would vote Remain, and 13 per cent Leave. It is worth pausing for a moment to reflect on those numbers. On an issue that splits Britain down the middle, we have a demographic group that divides by seven-to-one in favour of one side. I have seldom seen such a gulf between a particular group and the electorate as a whole.
Back to the calculation. YouGov’s figures suggest that each year 395,000 Remain voters and 60,000 Leave voters join the electorate.
Let us bring the two sets of figures together.
The annual change in the number of Remain voters: add 395,000 people reaching voting age; subtract 160,000 voters who die. Net effect: an extra 235,000 Remain voters
The annual change in the number of Leave voters: add 60,000 people reaching voting age; subtract 320,000 voters who die. Net effect: 260,000 fewer Leave voters
With the Remain vote rising by 235,000 a year and the Leave vote falling by 260,000 a year, the overall effect is to reduce the Leave majority by 495,000 a year. This works out at 1,350 per day. (The precise figure is actually 1,356, but I have rounded it down.)
In the 2016 referendum, Leave enjoyed a majority of 1,269,501. If that majority falls by 1,350 per day, it disappears 940 days after June 23, 2016. That is January 19, 2019, ten weeks before the UK is due to leave the EU.
To repeat: those calculations assume that not one person who voted in the last referendum has changed their mind – and that those whom abstained then would stay at home again. In fact, YouGov’s research shows that a fair number of today’s under 25s who were old enough last time but did not do so, would vote in a new referendum; and these people would divide 82-18 per cent for Remain. (This compares with a 75-25 per cent preference for Remain among the under 25s who DID vote last time.)
I have NOT counted any rise in turnout among the under-25s in my prediction that Crossover Day will be January 19. Were I to do so, this would, again, bring the day forward; indeed, it might already have happened.
YouGov also find that young voters are especially keen on a new popular vote. Those too young to take part in the last referendum divide three-to-one in favour. Among those who say they would definitely vote, the margin is more than four-to-one. These figures are not surprising but they are significant. We can debate the wisdom of allowing those who were old enough to vote last time to have second thoughts. New voters, however, are not requesting the right to have second thoughts; they want their first chance to take part in a decision that could affect the rest of their lives.
Peter Kellner is a journalist, political commentator, and former president of YouGov
Ive seen adhoc data from plenty of other sources that supports this.
Plus it's also very logical and intuitive to think so: Leave was based on a pack of lies. Lies have been exposed. Audience is better informed. Some Leave voters died, some new remain voters, Brexit anyway is a nightmare to implement. What do you think is going to happen?
But of course you're welcome to believe whatever you like, based on whatever you like.
Last edited:
We only have one data point to go on, so it's hard to say for certain.
But looking into that one data point, the "WhatTheUKThinks" poll of the last 6 opinion polls showed a 2% lead for remain, and what we actually got was a 2% lead for leave, so a 4% swing!
The Huffposts "poll of polls" also showed a Remain win, albeit by 0.5% giving a 2% swing.
Also - I don't understand your point about "Taking into account that trend (of leave gains)" - in reality, the poll of polls showed a clear last minute trend of remain gains (both the Huffpost poll of polls and the WhatUKThinks poll of polls show this). Although I guess that depends on what scale you are looking at - as over a scale of weeks it's probably pretty negligible.
Still, the point remains. The poll of polls on the day of the referendum has Remain winning. In fact it may be helpful just to look at this:
5 different "poll of polls", all with different weightings any systems, all showing Remain winning, all of which got it wrong.
This is where we currently sit
It was quicker than trawling through 1500 pages on this thread as you couldn't link your qualitative data when asked. However that was an article from the Independent (pro remain site). The reality of the maths though is that the theory on leave voters dieing, only equates to a net 25,000 swing. Which, if based on previous turnout numbers, it 0.07% of the voting base. Nothing to write home about.
I'm not believing anything as there's so much shite being spoken on both sides, i'm just calling you out on this qualitative data. Which is nothing more than opinion at the moment, and looking at the numbers based on poll sample rates (PollBase) is so small that for them to call out a near 50/50 split, shows the difficulty in opinion polls and taking them as any form of indicator.
The point was that you, and many others, cannot accurately conclude what a second referendum would look like (on an event that doesn't look like will happen). You have some educated guesses, but they're based on extremely narrow sample rates and some opinion which carries some logic. Which given the situation of Brexit there is enough narrative out there to support any stance. Recalling this three years ago, these were the same polls that was saying that the UK was going to vote remain at the ballot box.
You wanted data. I gave you data. There is no superior source than Kellner.
You don’t want to believe it. Just dismiss it with a shake of the head. Says the man who only looks at first link in google search. Coolio. You must be so smart and informed, I envy you.
Anyways everything else you write is serious Yawn.
Good luck anyways.
Last edited:
You're welcome. You'll hopefully learn to read into absolute numbers, and not rely on percentages. In quantitative science, it's called the absolute change or the relative change. It's easy in discussions around Brexit to get caught up in the relative change. The absolute change is where the difference matters.
Thanks for teaching me. I’ll be eternally grateful and very much improved.
I really really REALLY want Remain to win, therefore it is true.
Logically remain should win at a canter.
But
Polls aren't always reliable.
But
Polls aren't always reliable.
Nor are elections and referenda.
Does the best team always win the Premier League
Referendums
Doh. Or perhaps, dough.
Last edited:
Given that the referendum wasn't Labour v Tory and a significant number of northern Labour voters voted leave and southern Tories voted remain I doubt the validity of conclusions based on the previous years GE being applied to the ref, especially considering what we can see in the polling and what we know about the methods the leave campaign employed in the final few weeks r.e. digital media advertising and overspending.
As opposed to a snapshot or an average of snapshots (poll of polls), I meant the underlying trend the weeks leading up to the vote indicated growth in leave share.We only have one data point to go on, so it's hard to say for certain.
But looking into that one data point, the "WhatTheUKThinks" poll of the last 6 opinion polls showed a 2% lead for remain, and what we actually got was a 2% lead for leave, so a 4% swing!
The Huffposts "poll of polls" also showed a Remain win, albeit by 0.5% giving a 2% swing.
Also - I don't understand your point about "Taking into account that trend (of leave gains)" - in reality, the poll of polls showed a clear last minute trend of remain gains (both the Huffpost poll of polls and the WhatUKThinks poll of polls show this). Although I guess that depends on what scale you are looking at - as over a scale of weeks it's probably pretty negligible.
Still, the point remains. The poll of polls on the day of the referendum has Remain winning. In fact it may be helpful just to look at this:
5 different "poll of polls", all with different weightings any systems, all showing Remain winning, all of which got it wrong.
This is where we currently sit
Also, a difference of 4% between a poll and actual isn't a 'swing'; it is well within the margin of error.
Brexit: It is very unlikely that the PM will get his way today - here's why
http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-a-delay-could-get-boris-johnson-the-election-he-craves-11840965
Bit of analysis on today’s and the weeks events. Another interesting week in Westminster ahead!
http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-a-delay-could-get-boris-johnson-the-election-he-craves-11840965
Bit of analysis on today’s and the weeks events. Another interesting week in Westminster ahead!
With Boris actually getting a deal from Europe and it looks as if it has the numbers to pass Parliment, it really looks as if theyre simply trying to block Brexit.
Not being allowed to vote on it, trying to wster it down by tacking on amendment after amendment.
At least vote on the fecking thing.
Not being allowed to vote on it, trying to wster it down by tacking on amendment after amendment.
At least vote on the fecking thing.
+1
It doesn't just 'look like' they're trying to stop Brexit, they ARE trying to stop Brexit. Every step of the way.