Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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Well I hope you're right. From a purely economic POV, NI is better off using its entry point in the EU to become the smuggling cove for the UK into the single market.
Mini Caption Contest: Boris Sings The Blues
"I said May fleeeeeeeee....
Juncker'll be the one that saves me...
...and after alllllll....
yer my border waaaaallllllll"
Ha 
Mini Caption Contest: Boris Sings The Blues
By the by, he's going to have a tough time playing anything with that capo where it is.
"Don't fret", says Boris, as he ruins another G String.
He absolutely did not rule it out, what a shit headline.His words are being deliberately misinterpreted.
so May got 286 votes on MV3
Pretty long odds that Boris can actually get a deal through
But can he even get to Mays 286?
Hes only got 288 conservative MP's in total - and the DUP seemed to think if they voted against the deal around 20 of the ERG would back them... im not certain about that but if they do then I think he will do worse than May on MV3...
I dont see many Labour MP's breaking ranks as it does not look like it would achieve anything
Pretty long odds that Boris can actually get a deal through
But can he even get to Mays 286?
Hes only got 288 conservative MP's in total - and the DUP seemed to think if they voted against the deal around 20 of the ERG would back them... im not certain about that but if they do then I think he will do worse than May on MV3...
I dont see many Labour MP's breaking ranks as it does not look like it would achieve anything
Think there's no chance it gets though parliament on Saturday. If I was still into trading I'd be shorting the pound after last week's bump.
It'll be an extension, and then Bojo will throw his toys out the pram calling for a general election. Which I think the opposition will grant as there's not much else to do.
Then it'll get interesting. The odds don't reflect it but I have a feeling the Lib Dems will make a surge due to their anti brexit stance, essentially getting the remainer vote. Conservatives still likely to win, in which case they'll probably push for no deal, but given the joke the last couple of years under the conservatives have been I think there's a real chance they get booted out and we end up with a party / coalition pushing for a second referendum. I think the public's realised that 'Brexit' isn't just about no longer dealing with EU legislation, it's a shit show.
It'll be an extension, and then Bojo will throw his toys out the pram calling for a general election. Which I think the opposition will grant as there's not much else to do.
Then it'll get interesting. The odds don't reflect it but I have a feeling the Lib Dems will make a surge due to their anti brexit stance, essentially getting the remainer vote. Conservatives still likely to win, in which case they'll probably push for no deal, but given the joke the last couple of years under the conservatives have been I think there's a real chance they get booted out and we end up with a party / coalition pushing for a second referendum. I think the public's realised that 'Brexit' isn't just about no longer dealing with EU legislation, it's a shit show.
There seems to be too many vested interests on all sides to predict the result.
Meanwhile in upside down land....
He's got a couple of days to raid the coffers for the DUP. Soften the blow like.
If it was going to pass it would need to be something like this:
Tories 288
DUP 10
Independents (Clarke et al) maybe 12
Labour rebels - 12
There could be more possibles among the labour rebels and Independents but without the DUP he is struggling.
Tories 288
DUP 10
Independents (Clarke et al) maybe 12
Labour rebels - 12
There could be more possibles among the labour rebels and Independents but without the DUP he is struggling.
EU have always said a No Deal would not be their choice. No way they dont grant an extension if Boris has to ask for it no matter what Juncker says (or is misinterpreted).
Given the amount of meetings they have had over the past few days i would have thought hes thrown billions at it allready
Even with the DUP though he would need to get I think 24 other MP's and I couldnt see that... Even if he got all of the conservatives who he kicked out that have not joined other parties he still needs a couple more votes
I honestly cant see it
Wouldnt surprise me if a few billion goes the DUPs way to sweeten the deal if they vote in favour. Plus the 19 or so Labour MPs have have apparently signed a letter saying they're willing to support a deal too.
Who knows what's going to happen. How many will see Junkers no need for an extension now we have a deal comments and vote for it out of fear of no deal? How many MPs are just sick of all this Brexit crap and want to get it done so will vote? Corbyn has said the whip wont be removed should Labour MPs decide to approve it, so hes clearly expecting some to vote yes.
Ed Sheeran has a meth addiction I seeMini Caption Contest: Boris Sings The Blues
Thats pretty logical
He probably wants the benn act more than anybody... he knows the brexit party (and him) only have a political future under 2 circumstances:
- A general election where there has not been an exit from the EU
- A general election after a referendm where the UK decides to stay
he does not care about getting no deal - he cares about establishing a (far) right wing party in the UK with himself as the figurehead
Woah there, don't actually hold him to something he previously said. That's completely unfair.
May said no British PM could sign up to such a deal... will be interesting to see how she votes on Saturday - I suspect she will be torn between party loyalty and the opportunity to give Boris a metaphorical kick in the nuts by voting against
He probably should have held off on calling it the surrender act if he thought he would end up sticking up for it.
There is a deal, probably nobody is really happy with it... so its probably right!
Junker and Boris have (perhaps by the law of unintended consequences) joined forces to put the opposition in the UK on the backfoot, if they throw it out, no extension, so straight to no deal. Both can stand tall, its not their fault, Junker can retire without ignominy, Boris can face the Leavers with "I told you I'd do it, not my fault the opposition have rejected it"
Of course its not over yet, the fat lady hasn't sung and in particular what will the opposition do? Vote it down, or more than likely try to add the amendment for a second referendum. Assuming that does go through and the deal + amendment is passed by Parliament. The question then becomes... what about the referendum v GE?
If its the referendum that comes first will the opposition seriously ask everyone to go through such a traumatic event again (risking another close result, or even a third referendum) and turn down the deal, when in fact the deal is already passed, or will they call for Article 50 to be revoked, which presumably once the EU and HM Government has ratified the deal, then article 50 will by then, not be 'in play'.
,
Does anyone know the answer to any of these questions, that they would care to share?
Junker and Boris have (perhaps by the law of unintended consequences) joined forces to put the opposition in the UK on the backfoot, if they throw it out, no extension, so straight to no deal. Both can stand tall, its not their fault, Junker can retire without ignominy, Boris can face the Leavers with "I told you I'd do it, not my fault the opposition have rejected it"
Of course its not over yet, the fat lady hasn't sung and in particular what will the opposition do? Vote it down, or more than likely try to add the amendment for a second referendum. Assuming that does go through and the deal + amendment is passed by Parliament. The question then becomes... what about the referendum v GE?
If its the referendum that comes first will the opposition seriously ask everyone to go through such a traumatic event again (risking another close result, or even a third referendum) and turn down the deal, when in fact the deal is already passed, or will they call for Article 50 to be revoked, which presumably once the EU and HM Government has ratified the deal, then article 50 will by then, not be 'in play'.
,
Does anyone know the answer to any of these questions, that they would care to share?
His nightmare could come true - he becomes irrelevant, loses his MEP job, Brexit Party obsolete and a cherry on the cake - the pound doesn't crash if there is a deal so he doesn't make his money shorting the pound.
Could completely lose the plot.
that indicates they would have the labour leadership onside?
I had been wanting them to avoid tabling this but given events today I'm now not so sure.
Sit tight until he sends the letter then trigger an election?
Big risk not to go for it now
Very possible Saturday ends with a Johnson defeat and a confidence motion early next week
Even assuming a leader for a temporary gnu to get the extension and call an immediate election can be found there is a decent chance that the conservatives + brexit get a majority.
This could literally be the last amendable motion there is so yeah it would be a brave call to pass it up hoping a better chance comes along
The deal won't pass, and there'll be an extension.
Not so sure about that! Jeremy has to go away and do a lot of thinking now.
Junkers statement about no extension (probably backed by Macron) now a deals on the table, throws a spanner in the works. Jeremy cannot risk; a) the deal going through on its own, b) the deal going through with an amendment for a second referendum only; and of course a 'no deal'. Some how Labour have to come up with an amendment that includes for a GE prior to a second referendum and he has to watch out for the Labour MP's who once this is settled know they are going to be deselected, they are in effect fire proof with nothing to lose!
probably - what happens after that is the real question
probably an election?
quite possibly a hung parliament?
and all the time the clock ticking down
thats not actually what he said though is it?
firstly he does not have the legal power to decide that (its the 27 heads of state)... but also he actually said there is no need for an extension now because there is a deal on the table
its a strange world when I find myself passionately agreeing with Nigel Farage. It has all gone nuts.
So, the order of events is going to be
1) Deal doesnt pass
2) VoNC
3)Extension
4) GE.
My question is even if Labor/ Conservatives win with a majority in the GE, which I doubt would be the case, what is going to be different in terms of the deal with EU?. Is there going to be a different deal at this table or will the next government push through the same Irish sea border deal/No deal with the majority they have.
Is there any option, EU will be offering up a different deal that hasn't been discussed over the last three years?. Even after the change of PM's , there are only three concrete choices, Revoke, May/Boris's deal,No deal and I donot see it changing no matter who is in power. Am I missing something?
1) Deal doesnt pass
2) VoNC
3)Extension
4) GE.
My question is even if Labor/ Conservatives win with a majority in the GE, which I doubt would be the case, what is going to be different in terms of the deal with EU?. Is there going to be a different deal at this table or will the next government push through the same Irish sea border deal/No deal with the majority they have.
Is there any option, EU will be offering up a different deal that hasn't been discussed over the last three years?. Even after the change of PM's , there are only three concrete choices, Revoke, May/Boris's deal,No deal and I donot see it changing no matter who is in power. Am I missing something?