Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Brexit is going to define our politics regardless of what happens, even if we remain.

True, but if we leave, with or without a deal, we're stuck in protracted negotiations for the next decade. This is the unpalatable reality for those with Brexit fatigue. Brexit will dominate everything for the foreseeable - there is no way to "get it over and done with", unless we cancel the entire project.
 
Brexit is going to define our politics regardless of what happens, even if we remain.

I would have thought this would be the case alright. Even in an (unlikely) best case scenario where Brexit doesn't happen you'll still have a) the internal political fallout of that decision being reversed, b) approx 42% of the UK who still think Brexit was a good idea and c) people continuing to campaign on a Brexit platform. You can't put the genie back in the bottle.
 
Pretty sure Johnson will resurrect May's deal, and Brussels will agree to a proposal that solves the backstop issue.
Then it'll probably be defeated again in a parliament vote, as it's not leaving the EU, and is worse than our current arrangement as EU members.

It's all so predictable.
 
To get an extension for what?

The only three possible leave scenarios have been presented with the two agreements or no deal. The only one left is Remain.
No, unicorns don't exist.

One of these days these colossal fecking morons are going to realise this.

Right?
 
I voted remain.

I think the country is now manifestly better educated about the pro's and con's of Brexit. Especially after another round of campiagning.

I would truly accept any result in a 2nd referendum: if Leave wins, so be it.

Honest Guv.

I agree with everything you said apart from the word 'educated'.
I prefer the word 'informed'.
Educated suggests that people have learnt about the 'bleedin obvious' inherent difficulties with a major country like the UK leaving a highly complex and regulated organisation like the EU.
Even without the added complexities associated with Ireland/NI, getting to a position of a mutually satisfied outcome was never going to happen.
But. So many people are utterly sick and fed up of Brexit, more and more people are turning off and think that Boris 'get Brexit done' actually means something.
 
I agree with everything you said apart from the word 'educated'.
I prefer the word 'informed'.
Educated suggests that people have learnt about the 'bleedin obvious' inherent difficulties with a major country like the UK leaving a highly complex and regulated organisation like the EU.
Even without the added complexities associated with Ireland/NI, getting to a position of a mutually satisfied outcome was never going to happen.
But. So many people are utterly sick and fed up of Brexit, more and more people are turning off and think that Boris 'get Brexit done' actually means something.


I’m guessing that by now, most people have tried to imagine what BrExit would practically mean for them and their family; financially and culturally.

Eg: public sector, FTSE, SME and independent business owners would have examined the supply chain and employment impact. Presumably they would also have communicated that to their staff and suppliers.

people should have hypothesised about any impact on their savings, investments or property. Parents should have understood what implications it has for their children. Young people should know about how it impacts future career paths.

If everyone has done this, then i can’t understand why they would want to leave.
 
Judging by the availability of English breakfast tea in Manhattan, the special relationship is well and truly over.
 
The Financial Times assessment of the numbers for/against Johnson's deal, they think it will be tight. I'm not convinced they'll get 20 ex-conservatives or that none of the hardliners will peel off with the DUP, apparently the Tories think they'll get more than 7 Labour though.

 
Interesting, might convince some Labour MPs to abstain rather than vote for the deal as the only reason would is they think it would improve their reelection chances.

 
What I don't understand here: everyone is losing their shit about the political declaration. It's a non-binding piece of paper.
 
Regardless of whether the deal goes through or not, securing it makes a Tory GE win far more likely doesn't it? By which I mean "vote for us and our deal to get on with Brexit" seems like a better election platform than "I've just crashed us out of the EU and all hell has broken loose" or "I've failed to secure Brexit and failed to secure a deal, please vote for me anyway"?
 
Anyone know the predicted RPI on November 1st if we leave on October 31st?
 
the British press spinning the EUs statement to suggest they won't give an extension is worrying me

feels like Boris is lubing everyone up for a no deal
 
They will, I believe. The tricky bit is getting it through Westminster first though.

Most wont, foreign policy isn't something that you vote on regularly and we are not talking about a new treaty.
 
The Financial Times assessment of the numbers for/against Johnson's deal, they think it will be tight. I'm not convinced they'll get 20 ex-conservatives or that none of the hardliners will peel off with the DUP, apparently the Tories think they'll get more than 7 Labour though.



I'd be suprised if they got 20 of the former Tories he sacked.
 
I’m guessing that by now, most people have tried to imagine what BrExit would practically mean for them and their family; financially and culturally.

Eg: public sector, FTSE, SME and independent business owners would have examined the supply chain and employment impact. Presumably they would also have communicated that to their staff and suppliers.

people should have hypothesised about any impact on their savings, investments or property. Parents should have understood what implications it has for their children. Young people should know about how it impacts future career paths.

If everyone has done this, then i can’t understand why they would want to leave.

You are quite obviously someone who thinks about things in a factual sense as opposed to the many who simply don't think for themselves.
I absolutely agree with your last paragraph. But much as I would support a second referendum I cannot see it happening.
 
Totally agree. Easily the most common sense option.

I can't even fathom how anyone could think voting for Boris deal is common sense. It would be an act equivalent to the Lib dems turning on their own voters to join the Tory government.

It's telling that it's mainly the Labour MPs stepping down that are saying they'll vote leave. I'd be very surprised if they dont get favourable jobs in the future.
 
I reckon it's going through. And with more of a margin than most think.

Sturgeon reckons Labour are making all the noises about opposing it, 3 line whip and all that, but are not too bothered if it passes.
Also I am beginning to think that more than the declared Brexit supporters on the Labour benches will vote it through or at least abstain.
Something seems to have gone down because Gove was absolutely adamant that there won't be a 2nd Referendum when he was talking with Andrew Neil yesterday - like he was more sure of that than anything else in his life (or maybe just pissed). However, we now find that the remainers have shelved the idea of tabling a motion for it for tomorrow.
Also Corbyn slating the deal for all manner of reasons at 10:45 yesterday when the text of it was only published at 11:15.
The DUP are opposing probably under threat from extremists - which BJ probably understands and accepts.

There is a large element of behind the scenes stage managing here I think.

Or maybe I'm getting all conspiratorial because I haven't had my Weetabix yet. :nervous:
 
I reckon it's going through. And with more of a margin than most think.

Sturgeon reckons Labour are making all the noises about opposing it, 3 line whip and all that, but are not too bothered if it passes.
Also I am beginning to think that more than the declared Brexit supporters on the Labour benches will vote it through or at least abstain.
Something seems to have gone down because Gove was absolutely adamant that there won't be a 2nd Referendum when he was talking with Andrew Neil yesterday - like he was more sure of that than anything else in his life (or maybe just pissed). However, we now find that the remainers have shelved the idea of tabling a motion for it for tomorrow.
Also Corbyn slating the deal for all manner of reasons at 10:45 yesterday when the text of it was only published at 11:15.
The DUP are opposing probably under threat from extremists - which BJ probably understands and accepts.

There is a large element of behind the scenes stage managing here I think.

Or maybe I'm getting all conspiratorial because I haven't had my Weetabix yet. :nervous:
No I think you're right. I think the deal passing is probably good for labour. The UK essentially stays in the EU til the end of 2020 at a minimum and they get their GE where they're not the bad guys who've given the UK this god awful deal. It's an awful deal and when people start to see how awful it is labour can potentially ramp up the idea of a 2nd ref.
 
So Labour will either be seen as responsible for no deal or no Brexit. Awful stance to take. Agree to Boris’ deal and live to fight another day

Totally agree. Easily the most common sense option.

It would be utterly insane for Labour to support Johnson's deal.

Electorally:
1. 75% of Labour voters in 2017 voted remian in 2016
2. Johnson getting a deal through reunites the insane and centrist wings of the Tory party behind him and neuters the Brexit Party threat, giving him at least 40% in the next GE.
3. Labour voting for Johnson's deal means driving Labour voters who've switch to Lib Dem further into their camp, possibly permanently (definitely while Corbyn is leader), and maybe forces more enthusiastic remainers to the Lib Dems at least temporarily.

Politically:
1. Voting for Johnson's deal means giving an extreme right wing government control of deciding what consumer and workers rights will be retained when EU law no longer applies in the UK.
2. It gives an extreme right wing government control of striking trade deals first with the EU, then with hostile foreign nations, where things environmental protections and food standards will be on the line.
3. It gives an extreme right wing government the opportunity to basically sell the NHS to the US in exchange for Trump's 'great trade deal'.